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“The Real Winner in Lebanon”

To my mind, it’s still too soon to say—and much depends upon whether or not Olmert’s strategy (if indeed what follows is his strategy) is being embraced behind the scenes—but Strategy Page seems to think that Israel has played its hand fairly well:

The success of the ceasefire in Lebanon hinges on a condition that Lebanon and Hizbollah both insist will not happen. Hizbollah is supposed to disarm, but says bluntly that it will not do so. The Lebanese government says it will not force Hizbollah to disarm. So what’s going to happen? It appears that Israel is going to hold the UN responsible for carrying out its peace deal, and disarm Hizbollah. To that end, Israel will withdraw its troops from Lebanon, and leave it to UN peacekeepers to do what they are obliged to do. But here’s the catch, not enough nations are stepping forward to supply the initial 3,500 UN forces, much less the eventual 15,000 UN force. However, it is likely that, eventually, enough nations will supply troops. But many of those contingents may not be willing to fight Hizbollah. Israel says it will not completely withdraw from Lebanon until the UN force is in place.

The Israeli strategy appears to be to allow the UN deal to self-destruct. If the UN peacekeepers can disarm Hizbollah, fine. If not, Israeli ground troops will come back in and clear everyone out of southern Lebanon. At that point, it will be obvious that no one else is willing, or able, to deal with the outlaw “state-within-a-state” that Hizbollah represents. Hizbollah will still exist after being thrown out of southern Lebanon, and it will be up to the majority of Lebanese, and the rest of the Arab world, to deal with Hizbollah and radical Shias.

Hizbollah suffered a defeat. Their rocket attacks on Israel, while appearing spectacular (nearly 4,000 rockets launched), were unimpressive (39 Israelis killed, half of them Arabs). On the ground, Hizbollah lost nearly 600 of its own personnel, and billions of dollars worth of assets and weapons. Israeli losses were far less.

While Hizbollah can declare this a victory, because it fought Israel without being destroyed, this is no more a victory than that of any other Arab force that has faced Israeli troops and failed. Arabs have been trying to destroy Israel for over half a century, and Hizbollah is the latest to fail. But Hizbollah did more than fail, it scared most Moslems in the Middle East, because it demonstrated the power and violence of the Shia Arab minority. Sunni Arabs, and most Arabs are Sunnis, are very much afraid of Shia Moslems, mainly because most Iranians are Shia, not Arab, and intent on dominating the region, like Iran has done so many times in the past. Hizbollah’s recent outburst made it clear that Iran, which subsidizes and arms Hizbollah, has armed power that reaches the Mediterranean. This scares Sunni Arabs because a Shia minority also continues to rule Syria (where most of the people are Sunni). The Shia majority in Iraq, which have not dominated Iraq for over three centuries, is now back in control.

Hizbollah did enjoy a victory in its recent war, but it was over Sunni Arabs, not Israel.

[my emphases]

The only two problems I can see with this strategy are 1) should Iran manage to re-arm and resupply Hizbollah, that would mean the first defensive incursion by Israel was, in essence, nothing more than a practice run, one that the IDF will be forced to repeat for “real” once the end game offensive starts (in the likely event the UN cease fire agreement fails); and 2) if the UN, even in the event of a likely failure, manages to put enough international pressure on Israel to keep extending the deadline, this could not only give Hizballah time to resupply, but it could allow Iran and Syria to figure out some counter measures—or, more frightening, allow Iran time to plan its own offensive using weapons we don’t think they have.

My gut tells me there is something more happening here than meets the eye.  So for the time being, I won’t let my cautious optimism of the other day wither and die.

(h/t Major John)

81 Replies to ““The Real Winner in Lebanon””

  1. PMain says:

    Who really cares about the UN supply forces or any other nation? Other than the US or Britian, the rest of the world seems to be taking Hezbollah’s side & the UN hasn’t really been really effective in anythiong they have done there so far, other than to supply shade to their tireless Hezbollah allies. Even if Israel takes ends up on the political losing end this time, how muh more effective do you think their next response will be? They seem to learn from their mistakes a lot quicker than most other nations.

  2. oseaghdha says:

    My gut tells me there is something more happening here than meets the eye.

    Maybe you’re just hungry.

    Watching what was stupidly obvious play out over the next couple of weeks will be deja vu all over again.

  3. Sue says:

    I whole heartedly agree.  At least, I sincerely hope that brains and reason will win out.  The Left is now left with the “world” not working in concert which has been their mantra:  we should get them to work with us.  The United Nations will finally get some scrutiny and maybe, maybe some people will begin to see that it needs to be done away with permenantly. We need to stress that about 5% of the world’s population lives in any kind of freedom. America is roughly 2.5% of that…makes you think.

  4. I think we need to face the fact that the US is engaged in something like the Cold War.

    Right now we’re getting the Arab world to comepletely undermine itself by ignoring the established and accepted diplomatic rules.

    I’m not sure what the next 30 years, or so, will hold, but sometime around 2040 or 2050 we’re going to elect a President who’ll refer to the Caliphate as the “Evil Empire”, and three years later we’ll be wondering what the hell ever worried us about the Arabs.

    The other option is that Ray Kurzweil’s world comes true, and humanity, modulo the Arabs, migrates into space.

  5. Bill D. Cat says:

    What of the kidnapped soldiers? They were part of the ceasefire agreement, were they not? After degrading hezbollahs` ability to bomb northern Israel, doesn`t this give the IDF more room in dealing with Iran and Syria directly ,if need be?

  6. mojo says:

    1) Baby Assad’s Iranian handlers seem awfully intent on recapturing the Golan heights, something Israel cannot possibly allow.

    2) Syria is suspected of hiding Saddam’s stocks of C/B weapons in the Bekaa valley.

    3) The Bekaa is in serious danger of being overrun by Israeli troops.

    4) Hey, look – isn’t that Morgan Fairchild?

  7. oseaghdha says:

    A Decline in Courage may be the most striking feature which an outside observer notices in the West in our days. The Western world has lost its civil courage, both as a whole and separately, in each country, each government, each political party and of course in the United Nations. Such a decline in courage is particularly noticeable among the ruling groups and the intellectual elite, causing an impression of loss of courage by the entire society. Of course there are many courageous individuals but they have no determining influence on public life. Political and intellectual bureaucrats show depression, passivity and perplexity in their actions and in their statements and even more so in theoretical reflections to explain how realistic, reasonable as well as intellectually and even morally warranted it is to base state policies on weakness and cowardice.

    -Alexander Solzhenitsyn

    at Harvard June 8, 1978 (excerpt)

    I got nuthin.

  8. triticale says:

    The big winner is Adobe – look how much press Photoshop has gotten…

  9. syn says:

    If I were a Muslim even I’d be freaked by Ahmadinejad delusions of Allah’s grandeur.

    TW: Though I’d be required as a Muslim not to speak of such things.

  10. bains says:

    The only two problems I can see with this strategy are 1) should Iran manage to re-arm and resupply Hizbollah…

    I’d suspect that Hizbullah lost a fair amount of hardware, and thus resupplying is necessarily going to force Iran to show themselves.  Important not within the region, but for the ninnys in the UN who insist upon ignoring the motives and actions of the real sponsers of Hizbullah.

  11. George S. "Butch" Patton (Mrs.) says:

    Again, Israel has not fought a major conventional campaign in nearly 25 years. I look for some fairly widespread shakeups in command and staff.

    Let Hezbollah claim victory.  I’ll just console myself with that photo of the Abrams tank cruising under the crossed scimitars Saddam erected to celebrate his ‘victory’ in ‘91…

    TW: ‘latter’, as, ‘The latter proved once again the clarity of the Islamist vision…’

  12. lee says:

    it could allow Iran and Syria to figure out some counter measures—or, more frightening, allow Iran time to plan its own offensive using weapons we don’t think they have.

    On the other hand, Israels incursion into Lebanon probably provided a wealth of intelligence on Hezbollahs, and by extension Irans, strategys, defences, etc. Intelligence that will be very helpful if a return to battle is called for, or an offensive against Iran becomes necessary.

  13. The_Real_JeffS says:

    Well, I find this to be compelling:

    Rice: Not U.N.’s job to disarm Hezbollah

    WASHINGTON — The 15,000-member U.N. force being created for southern Lebanon will keep the peace and enforce an international arms embargo, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday, but it won’t be charged with disarming Hezbollah guerrillas.

    That “political agreement” will be the responsibility of the Lebanese, Rice said in an interview with USA TODAY. In the past, the Lebanese government has been unwilling or unable to disarm Hezbollah, a movement that is now part of the government itself. A United Nations resolution on the books since September 2004 has called for all Lebanese militias to disarm.

    “I don’t think there is an expectation that this (U.N.) force is going to physically disarm Hezbollah,” Rice said. “I think it’s a little bit of a misreading about how you disarm a militia. You have to have a plan, first of all, for the disarmament of the militia, and then the hope is that some people lay down their arms voluntarily.”

    I find it compelling because the UN’s role in this fisaco is less and less pivotal.  Holding Lebanon accountable for Hezballah also cuts away any shielding the UN might give Lebanon.

    Agreed, the pro-terrorist, er, ah, pro-Hezballah, I mean, pro-Lebanon (pardon the stutter there) crowd will spin it there way.  But the message is out there, loud and clear:  Lebanon, clean up your act.

    TW:  Take care, Lebanon, less you piss off Israel.  Again.

  14. Rob Crawford says:

    But the message is out there, loud and clear:  Lebanon, clean up your act.

    Really? The message I heard was “Hezbollah, don’t worry—we’ve got your back”.

  15. The_Real_JeffS says:

    Yeah, Rob, I suppose you could read it that way.  If you put any faith in the UN in the first place.

  16. The_Real_JeffS says:

    But, hey, I could be wrong.  We’ll just have and see who called it, eh?

    TW: blood.  Gonna get it spilled either way, Rob.

  17. Stormy70 says:

    Israel basically took out Iran’s proxy army before their “big show”. Now the deterrant on Northern Israel is gone, and all the rockets Hezz fired did not stop Israel from driving to the Litani River. They face billions in damage, and Nasrallah can claim that everyone’s houses will be rebuilt, but people will be pissed when it does not happen quickly. Already, anti-Hezz voices are starting to be heard. The majority of Lebanese know who is responsible for wrecking their country.

    Nasrallah is spinning his lies, just like Baghdad Bob.

    “We are victorious!” is ringing from nothing but piles and piles of rubble that used to be the heart of Hezz Land.

  18. McGehee says:

    I find it compelling because the UN’s role in this fisaco is less and less pivotal.

    Hmmm. This reminds me of Gorbachev’s attempt to interpose himself and the USSR into the U.S.-Iraq confrontation over Kuwait back in the day.

    Nobody important paid any attention to him—just the New York Times and the networks.

    Within a year Gorby was out of a job.

    Hmmmm.

  19. ahem says:

    This is a war and last month was but the first battle. End of story. Israel lost the first battle, but there’s much, much more to come. More than you’ll ever know.

    4) Hey, look – isn’t that Morgan Fairchild?

    Outstanding.

  20. Tom W. says:

    In my new, obsessive quest to keep you optimistic, Jeff, I just heard something interesting on the radio.

    Ann Coulter was being interviewed on a local show here in L.A., and the host asked her if Israel’s acceptance of the ceasefire was a mistake. 

    Ann hemmed and hawed and after initially saying that the only thing Israel should accept is total victory, she then said–almost as a kind of mumbled aside–that there’s a lot more going on here than meets the eye, and we’ll all just have to wait and see.

    What are the odds that she’s got some dynamite inside poop?

  21. ahem says:

    I am going to rent every fucking Nicole Kidman video I can get my hands on.

    The actors listed included: Michael Douglas, Dennis Hopper, Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis, Danny De Vito, Don Johnson, James Woods, Kelly Preston, Patricia Heaton and William Hurt.

    Directors Ridley Scott, Tony Scott, Michael Mann, Dick Donner and Sam Raimi also signed their names.

  22. TmjUtah says:

    People here in the states were pretty ticked off about how much recovering from Katrina has cost, and the intermittent reports of fraud/waste/abuse just stirred the pot a bit.

    Anyone here – ANYBODY – who has ever spent any time in the near East (business or pleasure) knows about the institutional corruption that permeates all levels of business and politics in that part of the world.

    It takes skilled labor, good management, ready access to tools and materials, sound planning, and above all time to bring in large – scale construction projects.

    I’d like to see a local blog or two covering Hezbollahburton’s reconstruction efforts.  I really would.  I’ll go out on a limb right now and say that there’s not enough disposable oil wealth in the entire mideast to make anything more than “Shacks ‘r Us” happen in Lebanon any time soon.  When large infrastructure projects like power generation/distribution grids, water treatment/distribution grids, or wastewater processing plants fail the entire construction community takes notice.  I can’t see the Hezbo’s or Iranians even making a gesture along those lines – more like they’ll preserve the image of “war torn Lebanon” for Western consumption and spend the money elsewhere.  Remember, they’ve got several hundred million dollars worth of missiles and rockets and such to replace, too.  I say several hundred million dollars worth meaning that that’s how much that junk costs after moving through the middlemen.  Those folks make DoD procurement look efficient and New Jersey politics look ethical, doncha know…

    I believe the Israelis are going to compress the complete and utter failure of the U.N. into an event that fits inside two or three news cycles, then get down to the real business of being a sovereign state facing a deadly external threat.  Maybe the Bush administration is involved in the planning, maybe not.  We’ll know pretty quick.

    TW = “new”.  Everthing is brand NEW again.

  23. cynn says:

    “What are the odds that she’s got some dynamite inside poop?”

    I think that pretty much sums it up for A. Coulter.  Could explain the outsize Addams Apple. 

    This is scarey, but not hopeless.  So far, everyone appears to have muffed this, but I just MUST believe that there’s a top-secret plan that ties all these sloppy seconds together!

  24. Major John says:

    Hezbollahburton’s

    Awww, that was outstanding.

    We can guess, harumph and speculate all we want – but, unfortunately, we will all just have to wait and see what happens.  I am hopeful that the Lebanese have had enough of the Hez (Western media perceptions/propaganda aside).

    Two things make me nervous; Iran, and the fecklessness of the Lebanese Army (although, isn’t it interesting that they didn’t lift a finger against the IDF?)

  25. cynn says:

    Major J:  And why do you think you are relevant to any further discussion of how to proceed?  We are effectively cut out.  So now you are “hopeful, and I can be “nervous?” If possible, were you able to insinuate yourself in the “debate” to begin with?  Who really listened to you?  Those who declare victory but still call for a standown?  It’s all over, I think.

    What do you think?

  26. billy says:

    I’m glad the IDF is pulling back from Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel and any other nation willing to confront Islamic extremism ( if such an animal exists) should focus military efforts on Iran.

    We all know (don’t we?) that Iran provides the material support Hezb’allah needs to thrive. They also support the forces who’re interfering with our efforts in Iraq

    Listen to the wisdom of Sinead O’Connor and “fight the real enemy”

  27. cynn says:

    No, the better anthem is “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran” sung to the tune of could it be “Suzanne” by the Beach Boys?  Feel free to correct me here, oldsters!

  28. Major John says:

    Cynn,

    I think you don’t seem to me to be making much sense.  I don’t get your point.  Are you angry at me for pointing out that we will all have to wait a bit to see which predictions may be true or off the mark?  Do you think I insinuated that I have any influence over what anyone does?

    I am, as far as I can tell, only relevant to how the 108th Sustainment Brigade “proceeds” – as I am her S-5.

    I guess, in the end, I am trying to figure out WTF you are saying.

  29. McGehee says:

    And it’s “Barbara Ann,” not “Suzanne.”

  30. McGehee says:

    Whippersnapper.

  31. Major John says:

    Cynn,

    One more thing: I think I have earned the right to be “nervous” about Iran – having been deployed twice to stand to danger, a third time, possibly vs. Iran, is worthy of a few nerves – having a wife and two young children and all.  Not that you need to care.

  32. lee says:

    I guess, in the end, I am trying to figure out WTF you are saying.

    Good luck with that…

  33. TmjUtah says:

    “Hezbollahburton”.

    Much sexier to hang out with your peers, all unwashed AK carrying murderers, in front of photographers, or in the back of a U.N. ambulance , than to place or finish concrete in August in Lebanon, right?

    It’s all they know.  And for the larger portion of them, it’s all they want to know.

    You don’t fix their malfunction via ceasefire. Ever.

    It is rumored that some Kuwaiti trucking companies have made their fortunes sending the same empty connex boxes back and forth to Iraq; that’s just business as usual over there. Well and good, I guess, since in spite of the endemic corruption and overt sabotage there are still scores of schools, pipelines, power grids, hospitals, water plants, and roads that have been built.

    More are being built as I type this, and if I am not mistaken, most civilian reconstruction management has been in the hands of the Iraqis for a good while now.

    I meant no disrespect to Halliburton – just a dig at the Hezbos.  Hezbos may not understand the concept of shit -> downhill; maybe that’s why they tend to be known for blowing up indoor plumbing rather than using it.

    TW = “note”.  And on that note, goodnight.

  34. B Moe says:

    It’s all over, I think.

    What do you think?

    If you think it is all over, I think you need to read a history book.  Or twenty.

  35. cynn says:

    Maj. J:  Perhaps, if you are in service, you are constrained to particulars of behavior, or whatever the hell you call it (thanks for your service!), and I am censured from making any nasty remarks to those in service (no problem).

    I guess I just wanted to ask what anybody could have done or do in the future to prevent the attacks.  I am certainly not upset with you personally or anyone else; I am angry with those that suggest that we could have prevented the attacks by using more brutal means.  That suggests the arguement that by not being brutal, we invited the attack.  I know that’s a stretch, but’s it nice twisty premise for my book club.

  36. lee says:

    I think it’s real special that Hezbollah was victorious.

    A couple more victories like this, and the ones that are left can throw a huge party in the rubble.

    Both of them.

    TW:So let it be written, so let it be done.

  37. cynn says:

    B Moe, it’s your job to “teach” me your own revisionist version.  Getta grip.

  38. Major John says:

    constrained to particulars of behavior, or whatever the hell you call it

    Now you really have confused me.

    As for preventing future attacks – that might take a combination of law enforcement, severe pressure – diplomatic AND military on the States that are supporting such (Syria, Iran).  UN gas baggery does little for me – I spent time in SFOR, cleaning up the UN’s failure to do #@$& about the Serbs killing lots of Bosniaks.

    Don’t know if that helps any…

  39. B Moe says:

    B Moe, it’s your job to “teach” me…

    Your first assignment is to get some sleep, sober up, and try to compose a post that makes some fucking sense.

  40. lee says:

    try to compose a post that makes some fucking sense.

    Good luck with that…

  41. cynn says:

    As someone who ostensibly knows something about the subject, what I am asking Major John, could any of this have been predicted?  prevented?  I respect your opinion and am sorry that smaller pipsqueak voices have intervened.

  42. lee says:

    It’s an ambush MJ, tread light.

  43. cynn says:

    whatever.  Take care, all.

  44. me says:

    A simple summary…

    Based in southern Lebanon, Hizbollah kidnaps Israeli soldiers and lobs indiscriminate missiles into Israeli civilian areas. Israel bombs Hizbollah fighters and lays waste to Hizbollah’s southern Lebanon strongholds to stop this from continuing. It stops.

    Since Israel’s goal was to stop the attacks and kidnappings, and because they have stopped, nothing else can be said about this other than it is a victory for Israel. And I’m sure they hope it lasts.

    TW: nuclear. well, let’s hope not. yet.

  45. Your first assignment is to get some sleep, sober up, and try to compose a post that makes some fucking sense.

    i’m going with sober up. did they serve mimosas at the book club?  you sound kinda like my mom did that one afternoon after the farewell party for her aerobics instructor. whee!!!!

    moving on, i’m thinking something similar to tomw.  heard an interview of Tony Snow this afternoon and i just get the impression there are “things” that can’t be talked about yet.  so more sitting and waiting.  or as i told rto, i’m just stupidly opptimistic that way.

  46. The_Real_JeffS says:

    I am going to rent every fucking Nicole Kidman video I can get my hands on.

    Having read your link, I wholeheartedly agree, except that would be another reason for renting Nicole Kidman videos.  cool grin

    An excellent sign….it’s nice to know that not all of Hollywood are idiots.  Although seeing the names of Bruce Willis, James Wood, and others is not surprising.  The good thing is having them do this publically and together.  I am impressed.  FWIW.

  47. Meg Q says:

    Rent? We ought to buy them.

    Well. Excepting the ones that Tom Cruise is in, of course.

  48. Karl says:

    Hez can try to rearm and resupply, but even if they are not caught by IDF intell, Hez seemed to have had problems reaching Israel at the end, and the IDF now knows plenty about their entrenched positions, pillboxes, underground bunkers, etc.

    tw: Bunker-busters penetrate the earth.

  49. dog8myhmwk says:

    Knowing that it was “Barbara Ann” qualifies me (or anyone else) as an oldster?! Forget the Middle East for the moment! Let’s get this agist crap stamped out right now! Oldster is my dad, young lady.

    And that is the end of that.

  50. Meg Q says:

    Hey, (after my Sloopy/Snoopy mistake) even I know it’s “Ba-ar-bra A-a-annn”, and I’m only . . .

    Well, heck, I was a youngster not so long ago, when did I get to be 35?

    TW: Just a couple of years ago I was 25 . . . how does that work???

  51. Pablo says:

    That suggests the arguement that by not being brutal, we invited the attack.  I know that’s a stretch, but’s it nice twisty premise for my book club.

    I’m not sure which attack you’re referring to, but fortunately, it doesn’t really matter. We can take that argument, apply it to our response in Beirut in 1983 and we have a winner.

    Had we dropped the fucking hammer on them when they killed 241 of our Marines, screwing with America would probably not be high on the jihadis’ list of things to do. And Hezbollah would have been choked to death in it’s cradle.

    I wish we had that one back.

  52. forest hunter says:

    You and me both brother Pablo. You and me both.

  53. forest hunter says:

    You and me both brother Pablo. You and me both.

  54. forest hunter says:

    You and me both brother Pablo. You and me both.

  55. forest hunter says:

    You and me both brother Pablo. You and me both.

  56. forest hunter says:

    You and me both brother Pablo. You and me both.

  57. Wind Rider says:

    Hmmm. Well, in a previous thread I mentioned we’d have a much clearer picture by Wednesday.

    Unfortunately, the picture tht’s shaping up, while seeming to cause Jeff optimism, doesn’t really give me too many warm fuzzies.

    True, the UN is already stumbling off the block in coming up with even the promise of troops to fill the plan, but, and this is a key piece I expected to implode right off the bat, is that the Hezzies have demonstrated quite a bit more restraint than I gave them credit for – maybe that restraint being a bit easier to exercise considering how roundly they actually got their asses handed to them, but still, I’d expected them to visibly bust the deal in a major way by this point.

    And the return of the South Lebanon civilian populace, plus the re-entry of more UN blue helmets into the battlespace is NOT a good thing.

    Because, even when the Hezzies do bust the deal in a provacative way, with the return of the non-target walking casualties, it no onger matters just what deal was ever on the table, how badly it was or was not being executed, or even how outrageous the Hezzie action may be – we’ll be right back into the wailing and moaning to stop “the slaughter” of innocents – not of course, that any such thing is really happening in a purposeful manner, but still, it will have a dampening effect on the conduct of IDF milops to go after the jihadis.

    Ah, but the art of war, now if it was easy, everybody would do it all the time.

    tw: we’re now getting enough data to see what a sucky deal this is actually turning into.

  58. Well, Jeff, I always enjoy reading your posts, but you are a helluva lot more optimistic than I am.  I sure hope you prove me to be extra wrong

  59. Charlie [Louisiana] says:

    I’ll just console myself with that photo of the Abrams tank cruising under the crossed scimitars Saddam erected to celebrate his ‘victory’ in ‘91…

    Ms. George, I have several photos of those scimitars, including a great one of my son sitting in the hand holding one of them. 

    They are in an area that his unit patrolled for 7 months.

  60. Josh says:

    Had we dropped the fucking hammer on them when they killed 241 of our Marines, screwing with America would probably not be high on the jihadis’ list of things to do.

    Because dropping the hammer on them in Afghanistan was so effective in deterring them from screwing with us.  They don’t seem particularly deterrable.  Just killable.

  61. Major John says:

    As someone who ostensibly knows something about the subject, what I am asking Major John, could any of this have been predicted?  prevented?

    Gee, thanks for the “ostensibly”.  Does this mean I have to give my BA and my MA in History back to the University of Illinois?  Hand back my diploma from the Command and General Staff Officer College?  smirk

    Predicted?  Only if you were in the Israeli cabinet.

    Prevented? Only by the Lebanese, following the UN mandate to clear the Hez out of the south and put their own army in.  They didn’t, and look what happened.

    Prevented in future – that’s what we are going to have to see.  Blue Helmets aside, it is STILL up to the Lebanese to decide they have had enough of this crap and to deal with the Hez.  THat ain’t easy, however, as the Hez has outside backing and has stuck its paws into every nook and cranny around.  We’ll see what happens, and all we can do is be ready to back up the Israelis if the Hez tries to use the UN/France/whomever as a shield.

  62. Percy Dovetonsils says:

    They face billions in damage, and Nasrallah can claim that everyone’s houses will be rebuilt, but people will be pissed when it does not happen quickly.

    Pity if this got interferred with somehow.  Money has to flow through channels, even via the informal channels of Muslim “finance.” Could anyone in government possibly be investigating on how to interfere with this flow?

  63. …every fucking Nicole Kidman video….

    Yeah. Like I’m the only one who hasn’t played that video over and over in his head for years.

    TW: Idjit. As in: What kinda idjit must Tom Cruise be to walk away from that shit?

  64. Pablo says:

    Because dropping the hammer on them in Afghanistan was so effective in deterring them from screwing with us.

    When was the last time you saw them reach out and touch America?

    Hint: It happened on a Tuesday in September, not so long ago…

    Moral: Yes, dropping the hammer on them in Afghanistan and elsewhere has been effective in deterring them, and in keeping them busy with running for their lives.

    Paper tigers get attacked. Real tigers that will bite your head off? Not so much. You should read some Osama bin Laden. He explains his rationale in very much the same terms I referred to.

  65. Major John says:

    Because dropping the hammer on them in Afghanistan was so effective in deterring them from screwing with us.

    Deter?  How about the folks that were there are DEAD, and not screwing with ANYBODY.

  66. Pablo says:

    Death: The ultimate deterrant. cheese

  67. B Moe says:

    They don’t seem particularly deterrable.  Just killable.

    More profundity from the reality based community.

  68. Josh says:

    When was the last time you saw them reach out and touch America?

    Didn’t they try to do that earlier this month?  Further, correlation is not causation.  We can kill them and we can keep them too busy running to organize an attack, which I am all for, but I’m skeptical of the implied assumption that jihadists seeking martyrdom are deterred by the threat of force.

    No shit, Major John.  Force works.  Threats of force, not so much.  Drop the hammer on them to get rid of them, but don’t think that they’re going to abandon their ideology and efforts because they’re afraid of our reaction.

  69. Josh says:

    More profundity from the reality based community.

    WTF?  The claim that jihadists are irrational and won’t be deterred by anything short of elimination is supposed to be a leftist position?

  70. B Moe says:

    Sorry, I mistook it for snark.  Been getting alot of that around here lately.

  71. N. O'Brain says:

    Gee, thanks for the “ostensibly”.  Does this mean I have to give my BA and my MA in History back to the University of Illinois?  Hand back my diploma from the Command and General Staff Officer College?

    Gee, Major, ya mean youze guys don’t use the Brown Bess musket and, like, form squares against cavalry any more?

  72. Rusty. says:

    I’m glad the IDF is pulling back from Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel and any other nation willing to confront Islamic extremism ( if such an animal exists) should focus military efforts on Iran.

    We all know (don’t we?) that Iran provides the material support Hezb’allah needs to thrive. They also support the forces who’re interfering with our efforts in Iraq

    Listen to the wisdom of Sinead O’Connor and “fight the real enemy”

    Lets go back to those thrilling days of yesteryear.

    Can you tell me the name of the country US troops first invaded on in WW2. And why.

    There will be an exam on this.

  73. Pablo says:

    Didn’t they try to do that earlier this month?

    Aren’t you supposed to be telling me?

    Drop the hammer on them to get rid of them, but don’t think that they’re going to abandon their ideology and efforts because they’re afraid of our reaction.

    Don’t you think that they figure our reaction into planning their efforts? Do you think that they thought we’d rout them from Afghanistan after 9/11? Do you think they would have done it knowing we’d likely take their base of operations away from them and Afghanistan away from the Taliban? What makes you think they’re all seeking martyrdom? When was the last big shot you saw conduct a suicide mission?

    I think you vastly overestimate the power of their zealotry. And I’ll suggest again that you read Bin Ladin and see what the jihadi assessment of American power was pre-9/11. Here’s the two word summary: Paper Tiger

  74. k. pablo says:

    I think the Israeli incursion was a reconaissance in force.  We can only speculate about the nature of the intelligence yield from those hardened command & control centers.

  75. SteveL says:

    Back in the glorious era of my youth, when Jimmy “I am a blundering moron” Carter was President, and Iranians held Americans hostage, there was a wonderful song, based on My Sharona, by the Knack, called “Ayatollah” and another based on “Barbara Ann” by the Beach Boys that was converted to “Bomb Iran”.  Why, now that the threat is greater, do we not celebrate these fine works of art?  I’ll always recall the appropriate but unheeded (since the threat with Reagan was sufficient) message:

    “Ol’ Uncle Sam’s gettin’ pretty hot.

    Time to turn Iran into a parking lot. Bomb Iran.

    Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.”

    Nothing has changed.  My position in 1979 was that Iran should be flattened, paved and a giant mall, complete with fast food and a large American flag, should be errected in the geographic center of the country.  Nothing else should remain.  It would be a fitting monument for those who would consider jihad against the USA.  Should have done it.

  76. Chris says:

    I took Hizbollah and the points, but sadly I don’t think they covered the spread.

  77. k. pablo says:

    Steve L,

    One of those songs would have been “Ayatollah” by Chicago radio personality Steve Dahl.  I remember the line “Ayatollah, relax, have a hamburger/Don’t get us too pissed off or we may do something nuclear/Bye bye bye-atollah!”

  78. Bravo Romeo Delta says:

    dynamite inside poop

    That’s a turn of phrase.  rolleyes

  79. McGehee says:

    dynamite inside poop

    Sometimes, lighting a match is just not a good idea.

  80. cynn says:

    Sorry, but they had freakin’ hurricanes at the all-ladies-all-the-time hurricane book club, and we didn’t see a single one!  Not books, ladies, or winds. I didn’t even see a leaf rustle.  Nobody submerged.

    Personally, I think the IDF was robbed of its perhaps final chance to validate Israel.  It’s a shame, but their status was always in question.  I wonder if they are really meant to exist there.  What a mess.

  81. cynn says:

    Oh, yeah, it’s “Barbara Ann.” Duh.  Don’t even ask about that Sloped Joe Bee song about the guy on a ship.

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