Former Democratic Congressman Martin Frost, writing on the FOXNews site:
Quietly, without a shot being fired, a revolution is about to occur in American politics. There is a very strong chance that, one year from now, a woman will be third in line for the presidency of the United States.
If the current trend continues, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following the November 2006 congressional elections.
[…] the smart money is now on Democrats recapturing control of the U.S. House of Representatives next fall, even though many of the established political pundits have been saying for months that not enough seats are in play due to partisan redistricting in a number of states.
In fact, there are enough seats in play if public attitudes about the two political parties and about President Bush remain even close to their current levels. Prior to Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham’s resignation Monday, Democrats held 202 seats in the House, Republicans held 231 seats, one Republican seat is vacant (a special election is being held), and there is one independent who normally votes with the Democrats. Thus, prior to Monday, Democrats needed to pick up only 15 seats to reach a majority (218). Cunningham’s resignation only increases the odds for Democrats.
Let’s look at a recent Zogby poll about President Bush’s approval rating: 39 percent positive and 61 percent negative. Let’s also look at a recent Democracy Corps poll that showed 58 percent of the public wanting a significantly different direction for the country, with only 37 percent wanting to continue the direction set by President Bush. And a number of polls show Democrats with a wide lead in the generic ballot for Congress (would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress if the election were held today?).
But what about the pundits’ argument that there aren’t enough seats that will be seriously contested? There are Republican seats at play in a number of states, including Connecticut, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico and yes, even Texas (former Congressman Nick Lampson is making a real run at Tom DeLay).
If we retreat from a war and then hand the House over to Democrats, there will be plenty of blame to go around: on the GOP side, the Administration’s inability to articulate its message; GOP spending alienating its base, leading to low voter turnout; perceived weakness on the border issue.
But what will be most clear is that control of the narrative by way of the legacy media is still the most important tool in a wealthy representative republic whose citizens are on the whole disengaged from politics and tend to follow stories only in soundbite format.
Such an information ethos—soundbite politics and a legacy media increasingly willing to follow it’s own advocacy politics (however unconsciously)—helps Democrats, who are the party of targeted carping, bloc-voting identity politics, and big-ticket, feel-good promises that are almost always fiscally unworkable and (when they come from the left base of the party) socially damaging in the long term.
In short, if Bushco doesn’t turn around the public mood—which the Dems have managed mold into a malaise by proxy (individuals believe they are doing fine, perfectly in keeping with the strong economy; they’ve just been convinced that everyone else is suffering. Similarly, they’ve been convinced that we’re losing a war we are clearly winning)—be afraid, come 2006.
Be very afraid.
Tomorrow’s Presidential speech will be a bellwether moment. Will the President look strong and inspire confidence? Or will the GOP appear to be caving to Democratic demands for troop draw down?
Remember: the President needs to frame any drawing down of troop numbers as a sign of strength and success (which is what it would be) rather than a sign of panic and failure. And he needs to make it clear that the latter position is the position of today’s Democratic party leadership.
Americans love optimism and hate defeatism. Time to remind them who stands for what.
And if all that fails, remind them, as Former Congressman Frost has, that if they don’t vote Republican, Nancy freakin’ Pelosi could, by some freak accident, ascend to the Presidency.
And really—how long after that until we’re all having our eyebrows fixed, and demanding that the government to pay for it?
(h/t Stephen Meyer, via the Corner)
****
update: TKS’s Jim Geraghty is even more freaked out than I am about the potentiality for a House controlled by Democrats.
Of course the fact that congressional dems approval ratings are well below those of the pres, and below even those of congressional repubs, will play no role in the election.
Bottom line is both the dems and the repubs in congress are detested, while Bush is merely disliked.
A couple other points. One, most of the seemingly bad news polls seem to be of all adults, rather than likely voters.
Two, this is likely a low point for Bush. The dems have to hope that next October sees the same high gas prices as this past October—unlikely given that they’re way down now—and that they can still pass of Iraq as a catastrophe. Don’t think that’s gonna happen either.
Nice analysis, Jeff. Same to you, Jim.
It’s pathetic to realize that the Dems see themselves returning to power only when enough things go badly for the country.
Why don’t we just take a page out of the Canadians’ book (le book Canuck), and toss all the bums out?
It’s time for a new revolution, and Jeff’s my next write-in.
Our nation deserves Pelosi as president. The GOP and the hawks deserve it too. We were pussyfoots in the face of treason by the MSM and Left. Now we will lose the Iraq War (as we did in Vietnam) by surrender before the brink of victory… and probably lose the WoT and a couple American cities. No doubt the Left will get busy expanding police powers to fuck over Americans (as they did at Waco and Ruby ridge). Red Staters and “militia” will be sent to Gitmo, not “innocent” terrorists. Welcome to the Doom we created. We only exposed ourself as being weak.
At what point does the revolution kick in? Condi is number 5 in line RIGHT NOW.
I’d also caution against reading national polls for forecasting local races. Everyone hates Congress (if we knew more about their “perks” the numbers would be even lower), few hate THEIR representative.
Having said that, the fiscal conservatives among us are more than a little miffed at the moment. It doesn’t help that the MSM has suddenly discovered a cause in the “confusion” over the great prescription drug ripoff.
I know the scenario’s been batted around before, but I’d love to see Cheney resign, have Condi be approved as VP, and then have Bush resign. All by this Summer. Then, Condi can campaign as an incumbent, with all of the perks that come with that position.
That’d give a psychic wedgie of catastrophic proportions to the LLL and MSM, all at the same time.
Yes 10-truths, there was some pussificaton.
But it’s like watching a spoiled 8-year-old dealing with Pelosi and gang.
The lady asks if you’ll watch her kid while she goes into the store to take a dump. The kid starts running into traffic. You tell the kid to quit it and the kid says she’s going to tell her dad – the media – that you hit her. Who’s the dad/media going to believe? She then goes and tells on another kid for running into traffic.
Can we bomb them?
What gives Frost this insight that others don’t have??
Bullcrap… TradeSports has GOP control of the house at 70%… This is just wishful thinking on Frost’s part, hoping for a replay of ‘94, but the situation is completely different.
Even if his analysis IS right we’re more than 11 MONTHS not weeks until the next election. To make predictions this far out of an upset is ridiculous.
I agree with NukemHill. If Cheney resigns and Condi gets the nod, she will effectively neutralize any advantage a Hillary Clinton would have. There stance on the WOT are similar (at least rhetorically on the part of Hillary) and no amount of victimization harping could get over the fact that Hillary is a rich white woman and Condi is a a black woman from the wrong side of the tracks.
Plus it would be fun to see Condi bitch slap Hillary on national tv and say, “where my dogs at!”
The technique behind this prediction by the Dems is similar to so many other recent Dem attempts to regain power: lie, lie big, and repeat the lie until the story presented to the public is that the lie has gained traction, and therefore must be true. This has been repudiated in Republican circles ever since Tricky Dick tried the “I am not a crook” line, and his party looked at him and said, “Well, yes you are. So stop saying that.” The Dems saw it work for Slick Willie, when he convinced not only Madelaine and Janet but most of the country that he had not shown Paula Jones his very identifiable wang, and had not actually ejaculated on his intern’s blue dress in or near the Oval Office. So the Republicans repudiated the technique, but the Democrats adopted it with vigor. It will not be abandoned until the Dems get their asses kicked several times while using it.
Excellent post, Jeff. Also, very well said, Jim. I was going to jump in with the congressional approval ratings, but you covered it much better than I would have.
Nancy Pelosi ain’t the one in the power suit I’m afraid of.
I’d be afraid of the one who doesn’t need Soros or his minions to raise money, as evidenced by the rather moderate noises she’s been making lately. She has a chance of winning the job herself.
And much as I hate to say it, the Republican who can beat her isn’t named Condi.
It’s Nanny McCain. He’s more experienced than Romney or Allen, more conservative than Giuliani, and has actually run the race before (unlike Condi, who’s never run for anything) so he has an organization in place. He can survive the primaries and get the nomination. He is pro-life, which is Giuliani’s major drawback as a Republican in a primary fight. I regularly mock McCain at my place, but looking at the (ahem)alternatives in the Democratic party, I would pull the lever for him without hesitation if it came to it.
Romney (my governor) is my boy initially, and I’m hoping he’s VP.
Again—three years is a long time. Anything can happen between now and then.
“Such an information ethosâ€â€soundbite politics and a legacy media increasingly willing to follow it’s own advocacy politics (however unconsciously)â€â€helps Democrats”
stay the course, my flip-flopper.
You mean “racist homophobe sexist babykiller,” I think.
Now go fetch me a sandwich and some chips, bitch.
“I agree with NukemHill. If Cheney resigns and Condi gets the nod, she will effectively neutralize any advantage a Hillary Clinton would have. There stance on the WOT are similar (at least rhetorically on the part of Hillary) and no amount of victimization harping could get over the fact that Hillary is a rich white woman and Condi is a a black woman from the wrong side of the tracks.
Plus it would be fun to see Condi bitch slap Hillary on national tv and say, “where my dogs at!â€Â
A problem, for those of us who aren’t refugee Democrats or one-issue voters, is that we know next to jack about what Condoleeza believes on anything but the war. There’s plenty of stuff out there suggesting she agrees with affirmative action, and some other questionable policies. So once again we’ve got the GOP possibly selling out its key values for one issue voters. I mean, poor black women? Appealing to Democrat racebaiting, you can say the same for the Hispanic pandering – this is Republican values? This is what the Republican Party is reduced to, out-pandering the Democrats. It may be the sane party, but it isn’t the Republican Party of Goldwater, or to a lesser extent Reagan. Not only are we running this party with one of the parties certifiable, the other party is playing down to their opposition.
“Now go fetch me a sandwich and some chips, bitch.”
What?
Gawd, you’re one annoying bitch, actus.
tw: wall, as in what it’s like talking to a liberal retard.
“Now go fetch me a sandwich and some chips, bitch.”
FASCISTNAZIRACISTPOOPIEHEADNEOCON!!!
Halliburton.
That was me being a sexist masculinist bully, actus.
Nothing personal. It comes with my politics, and so it’s part of my nature.
I would find it incredibly heart warming to think that the evil racist facist republicans may be the party which first supports a black female candidate for president.
Plus, I can’t wait for the inevitable arguments from the democrats that she’s not *really* black, in the *real* sense of the word.
Yes, it would be funny to watch, and emotionally satisfying.
But we really know next to nothing about what she even believes on anything but foreign policy.
Ya know, Aunt-Tom the Oreo-Girl would agree a lot with what William “Hitler” Buckley and the Klansmen at Nazi Review have to say.
“Nothing personal. It comes with my politics, and so it’s part of my nature.”
How victimized you must be.
If I’m not mistaken, the genetic code to Jeff’s “nature” is the subject of a major motion picture. Or an alternative to garlic in aioli.
I forget which.
If Condi did run, it’d be worth investing in RJ Reynolds, the Nabisco parent company, just for the sheer volume of Oreo cookies the dems would throw at her.
[breathless hysterical laughter]
[THUNK! (me falling out of my chair)]
[more breathless hysterical laughter]
[thumpthumpthumpthumpthump! (me pounding on the floor)]
[still more breathless hysterical laughter]
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!
[and yet still more breathless hysterical laughter]
Something tickling your funny bone, McG?
So basically, Democrat wishful thinking is now news?
Uh, not.
I’d be inclined to sit out the election if McCain ends up with the nomination. I certainly wouldn’t give another dime to the GOP until the GOP removed its head from its ass (where it would have to be to push McCain) Considering his constant pandering to the left and the utter failure of a bill named after him, I’ll take Condi and her lack of a “political machine” and questionable politics over McCain any day of the week. I know where McCain stands and its entirely too close to the fence for my tastes.
Be afraid? Fuck that. Why should I fear a political ideology based upon weakness? Not only that, but their ideology is financially and socially unsustainable.
“Representative Frost. Representative Frost!”
“Uhhh, uhhhh….”
Wake up, sir!”
“Whaaaahh? What time is it?”
“It’s 10 o’clock in the morning, sir.”
“I was just having…”
“You were tossing and turning and screaming, sir. Something about “Redistricting and Speaker Pelosi.”
“You mean I’m still…”
“Yes, you’re still a former Congressman.”
“And Nancy? She’s not the…?”
“I’m afraid not, sir. Still the Minority Leader.”
“Goddamn Rethuglicans!”
“Here’s some warm milk with a shot of Galliano, just the way you like it.”
“Get me my crayolas, too, will you. The 128-piece setâ€â€I need burnt sienna.”
I’ve actually been thinking of joining the GOP myself.
Barbara Boxer is on the radio right now flogging her unintentionally hilarious book. Don’t know about y’all, but I see Babs as Treasury Sec’y in the Pelosi administration.
If you could never use the words “Pelosi administration” in a sentence, I’d appreciate it.
The Dems still don’t tell us what they’re going to do if/when they are elected. Even now they are running as the not-Rethugs. The country is going to have to run into the fucking ground before that kind of positioning will yield results for them. And I don’t mean getting people to think it’s being run into the ground, I mean true blue we-are-fucked malaise that you can’t escape or redefine.
Which is why I support Howard Dean and Bob Shrum in all their endeavors.
“It’s pathetic to realize that the Dems see themselves returning to power only when enough things go badly for the country.”
After the party the adults have to come in and clean up.
Condi for President?
No thanks. I still haven’t forgiven her bald-faced lies to the 911 Commmission.
(I was hoping to find out how and why 911 happened).
Ignoring actus’ previous idiotic comment entirely, I’ll give you a strong second tachyonshuggy. It’s grim watching the left march slowly into the sea. They can’t seem to voice a message nor even find one, it seems. They’re purely the party of can’t-don’t-won’t.
As Jeff has pointed out several times recently, Americans are by their very nature optomists. So the Democratic message of how fucked up things are (with the DOW at almost 11,000 and unemployment near its all-time low) is just ludicrous.
Negativity rarely sells anything, yet that’s the endless message from the Dems: we’re losing the war, the economy sucks, racial divisions are widening, Bush is a chimp, the world hates us, the planet is about to burn to a cinder and it’s ALL OUR [YOUR] FAULT! (so vote for us!)
A real winner, that one is.
Bad idea. When’s the last time a Republican Senator won the Presidency? Heck, when’s the last time any Senator won the Presidency? Just because McCain trapses around the country on the citizens’ dime spouting off. Don’t mistake being a blowhard for an actual organization.
McCain would be a bad idea, but then, so was Dole. I sure hope the Party doesn’t throw one away just because McCain deserves a shot.
Condoleeza believes in bombing Syria and Iran into the stone age and she says she resents gun laws because they have traditionally been used against minorities who used guns to protect themselves. That thnking behind those two stances alone give me great confidence that she isn’t anywhere near the Dems on almost any issue.
Even if she believed in affirmative action, who cares? She won’t expand it and what we have now is a hodge podge system of workarounds by the schools to skirt existing legislation against affirmative action anyways. Besides, if anything, a Condi presidency would refocus the affirmative action debate around what it was originally intended to do, help poor blacks. What it does now is help middle class and upper class minorities, while it totally destroys any opportunity for the poorest minorities.
If I’m UCLA and I see a kid from Compton living with 5 siblings, 1 grandmother, 1 mother, a job, and a high crime rate can bust out a 3.4 gpa, then I’d take him/her in a heartbeat over Sally from upper pasadena and her 3.9 gpa and softball and band varsity letters.
Am I for affirmative action? No, but I also don’t think it serves us well to demonize any subjective standards with bullshit political rhetoric. I think Condi would go a long way in doing that. Heck, maybe she’d be the one to finally give a leg up to the poor white kids who need a leg up as bad as any poor black or hispanic kids do.
“After the party the adults have to come in and clean up”
Yup, look at that great track record of cleaning up those Dems have.
Has screamin’ Howie moved to Canada to help the Liberal party GET BACK THEIR GOVERNMENT THAT WAS STOLEN? YEEEAAAAARRRRRGGGGG!
Right, and Republicans never use one’s demographic characteristics as a means for qualifying or disqualifying a candidate. What planet are you from? Demographics is a key part of picking a candidate.
I’m not proposing we put in Snoop Dog. Condi is qualified, smart, dare I say attractive, and would have the support of the President. She’d also have access to his own resources, as she has proven to be a staunch advocate of Bush’s powerful circle of friends.
That she would stymie the Democrats in their own rhetorical world of identity politics is no small additional factor that makes her an attractive candidate.
Don’t forget, Goldwater wasn’t exactly picking up votes in the South because he was Republican. If Goldwater were black or hispanic doing libertarian stump speeches, I’m sure it wouldn’t go as well over at the Biloxi County Rotary. Nixon challenged Kennedy’s loyalty to the country simply because he was Catholic.
So, please don’t get all high an mighty about Republican values. I’m all for the majority of what Republican ideology , but Republican candidates haven’t exactly been shining examples of boot strap civic leaders.
I bet Teddy Kennedy knows just who to call about cleaning up after a huge party. The fat, drunken sod could drive a girl off a bridge and still come out squeaky clean.
McCain ain’t gonna happen. When he came out here to CA to stump for Prop 77 as the Big Deal Corruption Fighter he had exactly zero impact on the voters. He’s a creation of the same MSM that decided Pat Buchanan represents the conservative movement, for the same reason: they are desperate for a “maverick” they can harass Bush with.
As for the Democrats taking the House, the odds are about 400:3 against. They’ve talked too much trash too publicly to turn it around now. They won’t be able to run a candidate that can’t be irreparably tarred with the KOS brush. Even Lieberman has started talking back to them, in defiance of MoveOn’s announced intention to run him out of his seat.
Funny to hear from a guy who got redistricted out of his seat in Congress. Frost has always been known as a bit of a hack here in the DFW area.
But I did like the article for the trend it exposes. Once again the Dem’s are hitting their high point a year before the election!
TW= works, As in a Dem works himself up to a climax way too early, just like an overeager 16-year-old.
You know things are bad when they have to hype Nancy Pelosi being Speaker as a WOMAN! Third in Line!
Pay no attention to the fact that it’s Pelosi.
Please focus on the idea that this is a REVOLUTION FOR ALL WOMANKIND.
And without a shot being fired, for once. We’ve come a long way, baby.
Hmmmm.
1. Bush has sat on his ass doing nothing to counter the MSM and Democrats for a year now. This last effort is too little, too late.
2. I’m a fiscal conservative. Right now a divided and deadlocked congress is looking a lot fucking better than the shit we’ve got now.
Vote for Republicans? What the fuck for?
My advice: Don’t listen to any of Mr. Frost’s stock tips.
password: certain, as in “I’m certain of that.”
You know, I really didn’t need the mental image of the party of Ted Kennedy creaming its britches on the way to pick up its date…
“in a Cardinal Red power suit”
So are you saying she fucks kids in the ass and the Vatican lets her get away with it? Or that she chokes in the last minutes of a close football game with other Pac-10 teams?
You know, with the close stricture of PC-acceptable speak I can get away with the first question but not the second. I’m still trying to figure out the rules here…
“Nixon challenged Kennedy’s loyalty to the country simply because he was Catholic.”
He did a lot of reprehensible shit, but not that.
I haven’t seen anything that indicates the Dems have a prayer of retaking Congress next year. Their great anti-Iraq campaign just boomeranged, with 77% of the public agreeing the Dems were hurting troop morale. At the end of the day, all they have to run on are hatin Bush & higher taxes.