With the usual caveat about not caring much about national horserace polls, especially this far away from an election, there has been a spate of them now that are worth a comment or two:
T[ues]day’s ABC News/Washington Post survey of adults, which was taken 6/12-15, shows Obama leading McCain 48-42% — down from Obama’s 7% lead one month ago. Meanwhile, a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll of RVs, also taken 6/12-15, shows Obama leading McCain 44-40%. Similarly, the latest Gallup tracking poll, which queried RVs between 6/13-15, shows Obama with a 4% lead, 46-42%.
For NARAL‘s latest battleground survey, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) surveyed 1,000 RVs in 12 swing states: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA and WI. While Obama shows leads in national polls, he fares worse in these key battlegrounds. Obama bests McCain by just 2% overall, 47-45% with margin of error +/- 3%, and ties him 43-43% among Ind women.
The first point — so obvious that it is easy to overlook — is the difference in samples. Obama’s lead is largest among adults, but shrinks in polls of registered voters and becomes insignificant among likely voters. Indeed, the ABC News/WaPo poll itself demonstrates the point:
Among all Americans, Obama leads by a fairly narrow 6 points; among those most likely to vote — an estimate that it’s admittedly early to make — the two are locked in a dead heat.
That caveat is significant. There is no standardized method for determining who is a “likely voter.” Most pollsters screen based on self-reported voting in past elections, sometimes presidential, sometimes including off-year elections.ÂÂ
In theory, likely voter screens may undercount first-time voters. That is generally not a major concern, given the disproportionately low youth vote turnout.  However, Obama has done well with younger voters and youth turnout efforts. Plus, the polls show that there is more intensity among Obama voters. As noted earlier, Obama’s youth appeal could ultimately cool or be of marginal effect — but in a close race, the marginal effects can matter.
A complimentary point is that the difference in samples accounts in part for the prior observation here that in 7 of 9 elections since 1972, the Democrat has lost ground to his Republican opponent from May to the final election. Over the course of an election cycle, pollsters move from samples of adults to registered voters and ultimately to likely voters — and Republicans have traditionally been more likely voters.  This is one reason why the GOP candidate generally seems to gain in the polls as an election approaches. However, the trend has been toward moving to polls of registered voters earlier in the cycle for the past few cycles — which might partially explain why the polling was more stable in 2000 and 2004 than in prior election years.
The other significant point that seems to emerge from these most recent polls is that they tend to show McCain doing better among women than the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. This may be due to the vagaries of the various polls or reflect the volatility of the demographic at the moment. Jake Tapper notes that Obama has been emphasizing “women’s issues” on the trail, which suggests his internal polls are showing the same thing. It may also reflect his effort to bring Hillary Clinton’s voters back more fully into the Democratic fold; McCain’s advisers said they plan to appeal to women in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Kentucky, who probably will consider economic issues as more critical than questions about contraception. The fight over Clinton voters brings us full circle, as for all of the speculation over how many former Clinton voters might switch to McCain, there is also the question of how many stay home, which ultimately affects the composition of the likely voter pool.
(h/t HotAir.)
Obama gets one more bump after his convention. Republican drill-off-our-coasts bills cut the legs out from under speculators, lowering prices at the pump. Troops begin coming home from Iraq, victorious. Obama and Democrats flail on the wrong side of both issues.
527’s run adds featuring “Obama” dressed in Somali elder gear, in between loops of “Osama” wearing the same, until their names and the soft, hard power of their faces look identical. Other ads shift between Rev. Wright and Zarhawi denouncing America, with a special morphing effect to give Wright a beard.
McCain is elected.
The Left crumbles into internicine squabbles.
Jeff G’s novel is published to great acclaim.
Mr. Rove, John Conyers is looking for you!
A href=”http://rawstory.com/news08/2008/06/18/obama-trumps-mccain-in-fl-oh-pa-poll/”>heh
try again… heh heh
William obviously hasn’t absorbed the basic poli sci lesson about not looking at a single poll as anything much. Or proper linking, as the second one is a 404 also.
Hey look! George Bush thinks we should drill for American oil and wants Congress to make it so.
Think of the jobs that would create…
Hey look! George Bush thinks we should drill for American oil and wants Congress to make it so.
It’s about time. He should have been beating Congress up on this for years!
Where does Obama-Lama-Ding-Dong stand on the offshore drilling/ANWAR issue? Talk about a route in November in McCain says, “Go for it.”
BTW, a glance at the Quinnipiac poll shows it was taken from 6/9-16, i.e., including the period where HRC withdrew. The polls cited above use more recent windows.
McCain doesn’t want to drill ANWR. Peachy, huh? Hopefully Bush can get this and an Iraq Status of Forces Agreement done before he gets out of the frying pan and we all fall into the fire.
When domestic goofiness and post-Vietnam, post-modern self-hatred become evident, the liberal Democrat loses, every time. The only way they are victorious is when the Republican drags out a penis in public or seduces boys or when they run to the right of the Republican.
Why can’t Republicans see this?
McCain is unfortunately an economic imbecile, as witness his berating yesterday the ‘speculators’ and ‘manipulators’ making ‘obscene’ amounts of money on the futures exchange. Would that he could restrict himself to talking about the war but alas it is not to be. Well, at least he’ll keep ‘pristine’ ANWR out of the ogres hands, thank gods, since no one would ever want to go there, least of all John McCain.
Fixed it for ya, KK.
It seems that a certain Asgardian (who is obsessed with Karl) has started drinking early today…
My obsession with mocking Karl’s obsession, is that what you mean, Log?
Mr. Changey/Hopey indeed. Has there ever been a less-qualified candidate?
Seems to me that if you dug up the foul bones of Che Guevara or propped up Lenin in his tomb and ran them on the dem side, they’d get about 30,000,000 votes. Something does not seem right about that….
Thor,
You may have a point there with obsession. I can’t understand why you don’t try to rebut Karl’s specific points, instead of ranting, raving, and name-calling. I try to read just about everyone’s comments and maybe learn something. You must admit that Karl’s posts are very well written. He has a specific take, he clearly states his thesis, and he sources his supporting points very well.
If you were to do the same when refuting him, you might inspire some genuine debate. You seem to be a pretty sharp guy at times, but then you just drift off into rage rants. Stomping one’s feet and screaming “racist” doesn’t contribute much to a discussion.
Reasonable, intelligent people can disagree and still have interesting discussions.
Try to be a Lisa, not a Nishi… do you feel me?
I think that if McCain goes along with the offshore drilling, the whole ANWR issue loses some importance. At least he is going in the right direction and it could be argued that ANWR could be a reserve if other drilling is allowed.
I did read that 9 out of 10 Republicans support McCain. However, barely 8 out of 10 Democrats were willing to support Obama. To be truthful I think it might be less than that.
The bounce is there in the latest Quinnipiac polls showing gains by Obama in Fla and Mo. as well, but they are not big gains and it remains to be seen if they can be maintained. I have my doubts. I think this whole price of gas thing might turn on the Democrats. Blaming the oil companies can only get you so far.
BTW, I read at Bloombergs that oil went up today on the news that Saudi Arabia might not increase production after all. Then of course the market goes down and the dollar falls. It is a scary cycle.
Roboc:
Bush has been after Congress for years about this, but the Democrats blocked every measure and said he was just pandering to oil companies. In fact they are still saying that.
Sdeffor:
I don’t think McCain is entirely wrong about the speculators. There has been a huge increase in speculation in commodities markets here of late. A lot of that speculation is fueled by a weak dollar and high demand, but whenever the price of oil can go up $10 a barrel in a day, there is speculative pressure on the market. Irrational exuberance.
U RrRAcisT..!
lulz
JefGldstn kcks ur azz
cuz hes transhumanic enrgy enlghtment
pckr hed, an I m a totl link trafik Qwen, ur nt u lsr
thor:
Sometimes you are funny and sometimes you are just weird. I guess that is true of us all, but it has special meaning in your case.
That was… uncanny. I suspect you are channeling the Nishi spirit.
Tread carefully. There’s no going back.
Me weird? I can’t even summons up enough weirdness to properly mock nishi.
Ya’know, I actually like nishi. She’s spatial and spunky, but I’ll never fully get nishi so I just don’t try.
John McCain on the economy is an empty headed pandering populist. He doesn’t care to understand economics. As careful and thoughtful as he may be on matters of foreign affairs, thinking prudently before he speaks, choosing his words wisely in full knowledge they may come back to haunt his policy later, he is the reverse with regard to the economy and markets. He scares the bejeebus out of economists because he spouts off about things he doesn’t understand and does so without the least concern for the harm he may do. He demonizes on a whim, as only a fool would do. Better he should say nothing than put his lack of concern on display for everyone to see. Unprincipled might best describe his conduct.
Sdeffer:
Oh please, McCain is not a populist. He actually supports free trade and unlike the Democrats he is not talking about nationalizing the oil industry.
I don’t think McCain is unprincipled either. I do think there are a lot of socialists on the far left and sore loser cry babies on the far right and those extremes are the people who scare me.
Hugo Chavez yells at the top of his lungs about ‘speculators’. This is the classic behavior of a populist. Scapegoating. Ugly scapegoating. Look back at Juan Peron. McCain is of course not a socialist. That does not mean he understands free market capitalism, however. Unprincipled (in matters economic) is precisely how you should think of him, if only because he has no governing principles when it comes to the economy (how could he? he’s never bothered to cultivate them), outside the earnest desire to be elected. John McCain’s other idiosyncratic principles have nothing to do with the principles of economics but everything to do with McCain’s lifestory, which has, as you will readily note, no business component to it. He has a few good economists working in his campaign though. Pray to god, if you are so inclined, that he listens to them and spouts off the cuff less. He is a brave and patriotic American man. He’ll likely make an adequate President, good on the war, but if a moderately uptrending economy happens on his watch, it won’t be because he talks but listens for a change.
sdeffer:
I happen to think Chavez is a loon, but that does not change the fact that from time to time the market is subject to speculation. It has always been this way. I don’t care if you talking about pork bellies, tulips in Holland, or and out of control housing market full of people with cheap loans flipping houses. From time to time there will be speculators in a market. And when the price of oil can go from $20 a barrel to $138 a barrel in such a short time without any evident shortages to spur on spikes…there is a possibility of some speculation in the market. it happens.
I still like McCain and as for his life story, there is much there to commend him.
Ok, let’s leave McCain aside for the moment. I don’t disagree with you that there is a bubble in crude (or to put it another way, the crude oil futures market seems to be trading irrationally, ie. trading without regard to supply/demand frundamentals) at the moment, which moment can be defined in weeks/months. So what? Bubbles come and go. Bubbles are a function of human nature, human psychological makeup. What are you proposing? We’re going to fix the market so that human nature is taken out of the equation? And this will be freedom how?
Neither you nor I have skin in the game, do we? The problem I have is with the opportunistic definition of ‘speculators’.
Just who are these mysterious ‘speculators’? They will on closer inspection turn out to be the very same market traders and investors (plus a small number of late entrants seeking an ‘easy’ momentum trade, thus driving the bubble) who were in the market when crude was at $20, $70, $120 and every price point in between, below and above, and will be the same market participants who will be there when the bubble bursts and crude falls from $138 or wherever it happens to be on the day that the rush to the exit takes place and many of these (late entrant) ‘speculators’ lose their shirts. Big whoop. Crude on that day will downdraft market limit (about $30-35, I think) and likely for many days thereafter, until such time as the ‘speculators’ see a rational expectation that the price has gone too far and more buyers bid than sellers offer. On that day the price will stabilize and begin to trade on the fundamentals again. Will you be complaining of ‘speculators’ on the days the price of crude falls to an irrational, non-fundamental ‘anti-bubble’ low? No, you won’t, unless you have your own money invested in crude and want to see a ‘rational’ return.
My advice is, don’t fool with the system based on a few weeks of bubblicious crazy. There is important information to be gained and we are gaining it right now, as the idiot politicians are about to learn, if they don’t already know. In fact, the congressional republicans one hope for Nov. is that the Democrats remain as adamantly steadfast in their refusal to face the economic reality as they now are, and thus hand the Repubs. their only chance at winning. The economic pain is real, the people wake up out of their usual political condition (other busy-ness, boredom, ignorance, unconcern for long-term-implications for the pap the Dems feed them, etc.) and begin to demand realistic policy, not the pie-in-the-sky crap the Democrats are selling so successfully since 2006.
Just one more point on McCain. What is with the ‘gas tax holiday’? Can you really bring yourself to believe this is not a populist proposal? Really?