RCP’s Jay Cost has a series of bar charts reviewing Barack Obama’s voting coalition. Most of these review Obama’s performance versus Clinton, which makes them of limited interest in the context of the general election.ÂÂ
The final chart, however, addresses the contribution of blacks, wealthy voters and young whites to Obama’s voting base — statistics which may say something about a general election. Eyeballing the chart suggests that blacks made up about 38% of Obama’s base, while wealthy voters made up about 27.5% and young whites made up about nine percent. The total is roughly 74.5% of the Obama voting coalition.
During the course of the current campaign, Obama has sold himself in part on his ability to redraw the political map, claiming that he could increase the black vote by a minimum of 30%, and the youth vote by 25-30 percent. However, the Washington Post’s Perry Bacon Jr. and Jennifer Agiesta crunched some numbers on the claim regarding the black vote:
Obama’s argument that he could increase the black vote by at least 30 percent in some states would be very difficult, if not impossible. For example, a 30 percent increase in the black vote in Mississippi would require 74 percent of black residents to turn out and vote, virtually unprecedented in recent American elections. And even with such an increase, white voters’ support for Republicans in the state is so broad — 85 percent of white voters backed Bush in 2004 — that if every other voting bloc remained the same and black voting jumped, an unlikely scenario, Obama would still collect only about 45 percent of the vote in Mississippi based on Kerry’s performance.
The notion that Obama is going to dramatically increase turnout of wealthy voters seems similarly suspect. People with high socioeconomic status are already over-represented among the electorate, relative to the general population. Moreover, the 2004 presidential exit poll data, shows that John F. Kerry took a majority of voters with an annual family income under $30,000, but in no higher bracket.
In theory, the youth vote is Obama’s best bet for increasing turnout, given that the young historically have lagged in voter participation, relative to the general population. Yet this also means that even a large percentage increase in youth turnout will not change their overall share of the vote by more than a percentage point or two.  The youth vote increased in 2004 — but that was driven by an increase in voting among black youths, and Obama does not get to double-count voters within his coalition. Moreover, the past peaks in youth turnout happen to be 1964, 1968 and 1972, years when charismatic figures like Barry Goldwater, RFK, and George McGovern energized youthful activism — but failed to win a general election. Indeed, McGovern ultimately lost the youth vote in 1972. The Democrats had high turnout in the primaries this year, but did not break the record set in 1972.
Fortunately for Obama, this year seems to be shaping up more like 1976 than 1972. At the end of May 1972, McGovern was already down 19% to Nixon, whereas Obama is statistically tied with McCain at the moment. Nevertheless, even accounting for Obama’s powerful social networking tools, Obama may have a greater chance of winning by expanding his appeal beyond his core constituencies than by trying to drive up turnout of those core constituencies.
Karl, you need to remember that Obama is a Chicago politician so the Zombie turnout nationwide will be massive and they tend to vote 100% for the dems.
The democrats talk about their support amongst youth voters every cycle – and rightfully so, as so many college-aged and twentysomethings get all fired up during pre-election events. But a funny thing happens every election day, that same youth vote forgets (or just exhibits a lack of caring) to actually go out and, yannow, actually vote.
The only place where the youth vote can be whipped is on college campuses. On that first Tuesday after the first Monday in Novemeber the maximum amount of the 18-24 bracket available for whipping will only be 20-25%. BHO has the same problem with the black bloc. The prog plantations, where the whip is effective, account for at most 40% of the total. Aside from that, certain of the plantations (around Philly and St. Louis, for example) were whipped to 100% in ’04. It’s kinda tough to get to 130% even with ACORN registering ever felon able to breathe.
But Rick! You have to understand, this will be the year that youth voters finally realize their power and importance! Not like 2004. Or 2000. Or 1996. Or 1992. Or 1988. Or…
McGovern had the “youth vote”, as I recall, and there were proportionally a lot more young people back then.
That didn’t work out too well for Georgie.
I’m concerned that most of the polls will be closed before the youth vote gets out of bed. It was very helpful for them that the caucuses were in the evening and that they had a pre-function or partylike buzz.
You have to look at the distribution of youth also. Large populations of youth tend to be in large cities in states that are already in the Mediacrat column. You can’t double-count those, either.
Instead of looking at McGovern versus Nixon, try looking at Carter versus Dole or Dukakis versus Bush. To be tied with nationally with Barry at this point is actually rather extraordinary.
Talk of Barry winning a single Southern state is preposterous (with the sole exception of Virginia should Webb be chosen as veep). I fail to understand how Ohio is supposed to lean for Barry right now, and I would be surprised if Pennsylvanian Clingers go for him either. If McCain can sew up Missouri, while holding Ohio and Iowa, his task is simple: put the upper Midwest states into play. He doesn’t have to win them, but if he wins one of the three (or Pennsylvania) the ballgame’s over.
Buzz has a two-week cycle for movies, two-month cycle in books, a six-month cycle for candidates. The Marxist has peaked too early. I would say that pace Charlie Cook’s prediction last time, this race is actually McCain’s to lose. Watch and see.
No nattering nabobs!
Oops: Carter versus Ford. Old white guy = same thing.
And of course Obama will take the senior vote in a landslide because his proxies have treated McCain’s age and thus that demographic with class, honor, and respect. I mean who didn’t just bust a gut over the hilarity and political wisdom of “John McCain is older than fossils!” on Youtube.
Karl,
Good insights, but I beg to differ on the specifics of the ’72 analysis. McGovern would not have been the Democratic nominee if not for Arthur Bremer and his .38. Neither would George Wallace, but he was sure making life miserable for the Democratic establishment that year. We’d have probably ended up with a repeat of Nixon and Humphrey with less disastrous results for the Democrats.
How does this relate to today? I believe Clinton would have won the nomination handily if she had acted like there was going to be a contest past Super Tuesday. It was that gap in planning that allowed Obama to be anointed. It’s very telling that Obama is having the same sort of trouble outside the city lights that McGovern had in ’72. McCain won’t carry 49 states, but at this point, I can’t see Obama flipping Ohio, either. And if McCain picks Pawlenty or Romeny as a running mate and thereby puts Minnesota or Michigan in play, the electoral math for Obama becomes nigh on impossible.
I have a math question – are you assuming that he claimed he would raise the black vote by 30% of total voters, or 30% more than last time? If the total in 2008 needs to be 74% I’m guessing you assumed the former, but when someone says he will increase something by X% he usually means the latter.
For example, a 30 percent increase in the black vote in Mississippi would require 74 percent of black residents to turn out and vote
57% times 1.3 would give you 74%. That seems reasonable to me.
wampus,
My understanding was that he meant the latter, and (per the WaPo) the numbers don’t really work for him.
wishbone, didn’t you see All the President’s Men. The evil Donald Segretti (played by the twerp from
the Paper Chase)sabotaged the Humphrey,
Jackson, & Muskie campaigns in such a way as too make McGovern the only viable nominee. Operation Chaos has
basically done the same, but above board.
Uh…..guys, it’s a long way to November AND California will have a ‘No Gay Marriage” amendment on the ballot. This will get LOTS of socially conservative Christians out to vote AGAIN like they did for Bush and this will tip the scales for McCain over Obama. Conservative Christians inlcude the Latinos. Obama will need the earth to reverse orbit to beat McCain. Also, a liberal peace canidate, like Obama has never won a General election while the country is at war so it has been reported on RCP. Michelle Obama is a big negative with the social conservatives who tend to be very proud of their country. People vote on gut feelings for leaders. Obama is too far left and has too many questionable ties. He cannot excite or connect with Middle Americans, Silent Majority, Reagan Dems, like he does the kids. Had his radical ties and Rev Wright been known, he would not have the delegate lead. We are seeing a big case of buyers regret. He cannot fix this. His fumbling over foreign affairs scares the bejeezus out of me and I think I am pretty much a “typical white person”, like most voters. His wins are due to caucus results whose attendees tend to be activists, not regular folks. This has been the stupidest nominating process (Florida, Michigan) perhaps in our history. If those votes are not counted you might just as well hand the election to McCain and don’t waste our time with a campaign.
Sean Hannity was talking about this, and interviewing Wright, over a year ago. They should have been watching more Fox News.
Just a little note about the Carter/Ford race in ’76. Ford was very unpopular due to the Watergate fallout. Carter was leading Ford by 30% coming out of the conventions. He won by less than 3%. If the election had been held a week or two later, it may have turned out differently.
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[…] content with less changitude, along the lines Lowry suggests. This generally gibes with my prior analysis of the youth vote in this cycle: In theory, the youth vote is Obama’s best bet for increasing […]
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