Having watched the video briefing from Rick Davis yesterday, I think “strategery” is the correct term, as it was fairly long on spin and fairly implicit on strategy. Marc Ambinder — who has some screencaps for those who don’t want to sit through the clip — charitably notes that the info is “arranged in a way that might provide some comfort to those who believe that the campaign is listing.”
To be fair, in the briefing, Davis notes the general adverse environment for the GOP and that McCain out performs the abysmal GOP numbers. As I have argued before, the general public mood for change — as expressed in unrealstic notions of bipartisanship and getting rid of “special interests” — accounts for the appeal of McCain and Obama in this cycle; it likely makes McCain the best nominee against Obama (whatever my opinion of either may be). Davis overdoes this a bit, however; that McCain does better than generic GOP numbers is largely irrelevant to McCain’s strategy as such. Davis also says that McCain’s image ratings “far surpassâ€Â Obama’s — but the accompanying chart has the difference at about six percent.
One point you can see in Ambinder’s screencaps is the argument that people perceive McCain’s political ideology to be closer to their own than they do Obama’s ideology. On this point, Rasmussen just released a poll suggesting this is less true than it was, though at the outset of the campaign, these perceptions may still be fluid.
Team McCain’s claims about the number of battleground states is every bit as hype-driven as that of Team Obama, if not moreso. “Watch California” because it has a lot of independent voters? The current RCP average has the state at Obama+12.6. Get back to me when it is in single digits. Indeed, if you watch the entire video, a map appears toward the end that looks much more realistic — and conventional — than the map the video starts with.
Davis then turns to organization, which pw regularls know is my hobbyhorse. Davis says some of the right things here, noting the campaign did best where it was closer to the ground. That is an argument for the novel, decentralized structure Davis is rolling out, though the proof will be in the execution. Davis claims that by the end of the month, they will have dedicated offices in Las Vegas, NV, Phoenix, Des Moines, IA, Royal Oak, MI, Columbus, OH, St. Paul, MN, New Brunswick, NJ, Manchester, NH, and Tallahassee, FL:
Seeing the regions on the map, along with their first wave of offices, suggests the campaign’s real priorities. Watch California with its zero offices in the first wave! It is fairly obvious that Team McCain has put a priority on organizing the Great Lakes region, as well as the Mountain West battlegrounds — Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada — and the Iowa-Missouri pairing. Davis claims that the campaign expects to open 500 offices within the next four months, but October is probably going to be a bit late to be opening offices.
Finally, Davis engages in some fundraising spin. He notes that the combined Maverick/RNC effort beat the combined Obama/DNC totals in April, and opines that May could be even better. He also notes that Obama was spending money faster than he was raising it in April. Davis avoids attributing any of this to the Obama-Clinton battle that was still very heated in April, while McCain was unopposed. Moreover, even if the combined McCain/GOP take tops $50 million in May, it is possible that Obama could raise $100 million in June wth Clinton suspending her campaign.
The charitable conclusion so far is that McCain and the GOP may make virtues of necessity. McCain did well enough running a lean campaign against the flush coffers of Mitt Romney (though such were undoubtedly more limited than what Obama can raise). In the best case scenario, a decentralized campaign can exploit local conditions, much as Camp Obama plans to do. The S.S. McCain may not be listing, but the wind is not in its sails, either, so I expect to see a lot of tacking.
Obama’s flush with cash, but McCain may be hoping that Obama’s negatives will eventually wear him down. It’s the same approach Clinton seems to have tried, and it nearly succeeded. McCain doesn’t have to hold back, either: if there’s a “nuclear option” that was unavailable to Clinton, he could still use it. By poaching disenchanted Clinton supporters and keeping the disenfranchisement issue alive in Michigan and Florida, McCain could do some damage. If he can protect Virginia and pick up the bitter, bitter states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire he might actually have a shot.
For a Republican to be running close to Obama at this point is just amazing. Many voters still have only a vague idea of Obama’s radical ties, BLT beliefs, and corrupt politics.
HokiePundit, did you see any mention in the Roanoke Times of Obama’s resigning from his church? No. They simply never reported it. So in many cases these polls reflect an electorate that does not yet have all the facts.
The election is McCain’s to lose. Of course, given McQueeg’s squirrely disposition he may shoot himself in the nuts, but if you add the rest of Obama’s problems to the new “Obama will be Jimmy Carter’s second term” slogan, it’s McCain’s to lose.
Im just not so sure, though HokiePundit’s analysis appears sound enough.
McCain has to overcome too much structural incompetence from the GWB legacy to get people enthusiastic about voting GOP. The economy is in super-bad shape and oil prices just scream for a change of perspective.
The bitter irony is that Iraq is, or appears to be, shaping up. At this trajectory of improvement, even a leftie–note that I avoid the use of the word liberal–like Obama is going to have a really hard time beating him over the head with the bloody towel.
Michigan has a few things going for it. First, the big wigs all were pulling for Hillary. Second, Michigan has been totally screwed by the Democrats in office. Jennifer raised taxes last year, and it looks like she’s going to ask to raise them again. OH PLEASE, do it Jenny.
I’m guessing she’s going to wait until after November to try to pull that trick, or people will be so pissed at Democrats.
Detroit, Flint … they’ll all see record turn-out for Obama. But, the union members may not be feeling the love, etc … there is hope.
– If McOld does anymore speeches like that total disaster the other night, hes going to need a stunt double with a pulse.
– The stage setting was so drab he was almost invisible, and it looked like they got that mighty crowd by raiding a Saturday night church bingo club, without the bingo. The only thing keeping most of them awake was the occasional cough.
– I noticed that PA seemed to be missing from the attack list. I don’t think McCain can take anything for granted. This election is Obamas to lose, and while hes done a remarkable job at undermining himself up til now, barring any more Wrights etc., he’ll learn as he goes, while McCain isn’t going to get any younger.
Bitter irony?
Until people actually start paying attention – and the long Democratic primary captured all attention – neither general campaign was getting any traction. Now we’ll get to see what assumptions are supportable and which aren’t from both camps.
Why waste time in a winner-take-all Democrat stronghold like California?
Regan? Who dat?
Don Regan?
As Salt Lick pointed out, I do think that the “Jimmy Carter’s Second Term” tactic is one that will be brutally effective. McCain needs to ride that for everything it’s worth. Also, some of my more centrist Democrat friends are on the fence but are leaning toward Obama over McCain because of Supreme Court picks. McCain needs to start an “Obama & Friends” ad series with each one focusing on Jeremiah Write, Bill Ayers, Michelle Obama, Tony Rezko, and so on to hammer on this: if these are the people he picks as his close associates, who will he pick for Supreme Court? Centrist Democrats may be afraid of Roe v. Wade being overturned, but are they willing to protect it and have justices who would be willing to challenge things such as due process and free speech?
A couple of thoughts on McCain:
1) He needs to browbeat Obama into as many Town Hall style meetings and debates as possible. I suspect that Obama will avoid them like botulism as he has not proven to be a particularly good off the cuff speaker. That’s not to say that McCain will be better but it’s his only chance to expose the Obama’s packaged persona. McCain has no shot of competing with the messiah in newsworthy rally moments. To do well in those more personal venues, McCain needs to rediscover his self depricating sense of humor and find a way to command the important details of policy and issues. Can he do it? I don’t know.
2) The more I learn about Obama’s past associations and works, the more I’m opposed to him. I have several problems with McCain in terms of what he’s done but my problem going forward is knowing less about him in terms of policy plans. He really hasn’t proclaimed a clear economic program, including taxes, and I’d like to see a “McCain Doctrine” expressed for foreign policy that gives him separation from Bush. his loud support for AGW and carbon credits is a huge negative.
3) Somebody best be committed to ground level organizing not just for independants and moderate Dems but also for disgruntled Republicans. I live in Chester County, PA, a Republican stronghold. One of my best friends is a committeeman for the Republican organization and he loves to tell me how he has never seen, in thirty years of involvement, so many party faithful so discouraged and/or disgruntled. I suspect that McCain better have this card in his organizing deck if he wants to have any chance of beating Obama cuz if the faithful stay home out of ennui, he’s toast.
McCain can only win by highlighting what a lying, empty suit Obama is.
And from what I’ve seen so far, he hasn’t got the stones to do it. He doesn’t seem to have noticed that “nice guys” in a presidential race are soon bulldozed off the cliff.
Well, I guess I better start working on my tan.
McCain? McWimp is more like it.
Hmmmm.
Still not voting for McCain. If he wants a coalition of Democrats, liberal Republicans and moderates. What the hell. Go for it.
Hey memomachine — you sound like a conservative or libertarian. I’m curious — in the short or long run — how does Obama’s election benefit your country more than McQueeg’s? I’m not mocking you. I’m just interested in a solid explanation of your position.
Cheers,
McCain and the Republicans need to take a good look at the numbers in Michigan. 75 of 83 counties went for Bush in the last election. If we assume the same and Barrack takes the cities again we’re screwed as he “owns” 97% of the black vote. McCains job then is to increase the number of Republican votes in 40 or 50 of the most populated rural counties. This can only be accomplished by using a high intensity ground game, door to door, an all out gorilla warfare by republicans.
Also the strategy of nit picking Obama is not going to work, the guy is tefflon. The Republicans will have to find the “stake in his heart” to put the “nail in the coffin.
Obacula can be vanquished! Get him out into the sunlight!
McCain, like myself, needs to be looking for a “Prick School”.
If McWimp doesn’t lesrn the ways of a prick (and soon), he is toast.
Hey, John. Repeat after me:
“I am a prick! I am a prick! I am a prick!”
Obama is a prick, and if you can’t even get on the playing field, you forfeit the game.
Costa Rica is looking better and better…
Well he certainly stuck them in as far east as he possibly could eh?
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[…] moratorium on offshore oil drilling.” Today’s stories tend to confirm my suspicion last month that campaign manager Rick Davis was doing more spin and tactics than strategy… which may be […]