The Field’s Al Giordano (whose earlier beakdown of PA was linked this morning) has a new forecast of Clinton +4.6 as part of a roundup that runs as high as Clinton+12. Electoral math being what it is, the forecasts all have Clinton gaining only four delegates.
Of course, as noted this morning, delegate counts may not be known tonight, so people will focus on the popular vote. Giordano also has a nifty map that ran in the Philly Inquirer showing where the newly-registered Democrats are, which is useful in evaluating the “what to look for” analyses that have run in places like the Politico. For example, the Politico piece claims that:
In south central Pennsylvania, which got lots of attention from both candidates, Lancaster and Adams counties will provide a glimpse into Obama’s popularity with newly-registered Democrats. Though these areas have traditionally elected Republicans, they’ve experienced significant growth as affluent residents have moved in from Baltimore, D.C. and southeastern Pennsylvania.
Looking at the map, however, suggests that other counties have the largest increases in newly registered Dems. That does not mean the Philly suburbs won’t be a battleground, but the newer residents there are not necessarily newly-registered voters.
(h/t Memeorandum.)
What time do the polls close, sir? Google says at 8. That’s like 5 here. I don’t think I’ll run right home though cause I’ll probably mosey instead. This already feels a lot anticlimactic, being that one of them is gonna win.
Polls close in like half an hour. Then we’ll see who won. At some point anyway. I’m betting on Clinton. Baracky really screwed up with that whole elitist bender he went on.
– A number of sidebar stories are springing up during the day:
* Slick Willeys angry retort wit a reporter, during which he denied ever referring to the a race card being used against him.
* Hill-Rod saying that if “[Iran] goes along and develops nuclear in the next ten uears and then attacks Israel, then we could “obliterate” them.
* Obama responding by calling Hillerys “obliterate” comment irresponsible, but all the same asserting the America could indeed respond in any such event. I guess the Dem plan is to talk to the Islamofascists so much and so harshly, they give up and run away,
* A group in Phily, who went to court to try to keep the polls open til 10 pm. Maybe this is finally an accurate example of voter irregularity in a Dem election.
– Polls close in about 8 minutes, so we should start seeing some hard results soon.