From Richard Miniter, Washington editor for Pajamas Media:
The U.S. is in serious discussions with commanders of the Mahdi Army to lay down their arms, an intelligence officer directly involved in Iraq operations told Pajamas Media Tuesday.
The American intelligence official spoke under the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the issue.
The Mahdi Army, a predominantly Shia Muslim force led by Moqter al-Sadr, has terrorized Sunnis into fleeing certain Baghdad neighborhoods and has been linked to Iran. Al-Sadr has disappeared from the Iraqi capital and is widely believed to have holed up in Iran. Al-Sadr’s family and senior officers are believed, by elements of American intelligence in Iraq, to have left with him.
With al-Sadr’s paymasters gone many mid-level commanders are unpaid. And so are the fighters under them. (In the Mahdi Army, commanders are responsible for the financial well-being of the men under their command.) Some have resorted to extortion, robbery and violent crimes. They are desperate for money. And they are also being hunted by U.S. and Iraqi soldiers throughout Iraq.
This has created a unique opportunity for American and allied troops, intelligence sources say.
Through intermediaries  known in spook-speak as “assets† a handful of Mahdi Army leaders have approached allied forces and begun negotiating.
The source did not say whether immunity from criminal liability or the promise of payments were under discussion.
If these negotiations bear fruit, the Mahdi Army could be well on its way to being dismantled , commander by commander, fighter by fighter.
Coupled with evidence that the “surge” seems to be working—and new speculation that Iran’s influence in Iraq is fading—it’s time we prepare ourselves for the next major push by the anti-war contingent in Congress (and their media enablers) to try to influence a US troop pullout from Iraq.
Because the fact is, many anti-war folk have staked their political lives and professional reputations on failure—at least, up until the 2008 elections—and so they simply cannot allow any positive developments to be spun in a way that credits the Bush Administration’s surge strategy, especially as they are on record now as calling for a timed pullout.
Ironically, the Dems demand that troops be pulled out of Iraq by 2008 may be helping the surge efforts. After all, insurgents cannot anticipate who will be in power beginning in 2009 (although they can be reasonably sure it won’t be Dennis Kucinich)—and, with the Senate unwilling to pass a withdraw measure, the gambit of trying to wait out the surge could prove suicidal for insurgent fighters and al Qaeda in Iraq, especially if, in the intervening months, US/Iraq coalition successes inspire additional trust on the part of the Iraqi people.
Because with additional trust comes additional intelligence—and better intel, when combined with the current surge strategy (the full force of which has yet even to take effect), would seriously weaken the remnants of the insurgency.
So. What’s an insurgent to do?
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More here.
Kid’s up early this morning, Jeff?
I’m pretty skeptical of any intelligence dealing with the Mahdi army. It seems to me to be more of a street gang than a mafia type organization.
But then maybe that’s a good thing and plays right into this strategy.
subtitled The Democratic Party’s Worse Nightmare.
OT, but —
Slainte Sin Padraig
A GRUMPY VIEW OF IRISH HISTORY
95% of Irish History ends with the words, “…and then he was betrayed by…” This cover everyone from Finn MacCool and the Knights of the Red Branch to Michael Collins.
3% of Irish History ends with the words, “…and then success went to his head and turned his brains to ****…” This covers everyone from the bards to Conn of the Hundred Battles to the Kennedies and Michael Flatley.
2% of Irish History ends with the words, “…and then he really made something of himself but he had to leave Ireland to do it.” This covers everyone from Wellington to Shaw to every starving paddy who jumped on a scow heading West during the famine.
This reminds me of some of the talk of the elusive tipping point in the first portion of the war. Generally, tipping points aren’t always crystal clear but – at least at the time when one is paying close attention – it is possible to get a sense of being past the tipping point.
It will be interesting to see how this goes.
Unfortunately, even a stunning success in Iraq will be played as a disaster by the Dems and the media, who, as Jeff suggests, have too much invested in our defeat. “Civil war” my butt.
The Dems are not the party of parity, but rather, the party of parody. It’s too bad that such a small number of spoiled brats, with the help of the media, have just about handed America it’s biggest humiliation ever – for no reason other than their own powerlust.
“The only right and wrong are what the French and Germans say they are”. Asshats.
Mencken: ‘Twas poetic, thanks.
“So. What’s an insurgent to do?”
Die with the rest, hopefully.
Looks like Sadr’s boys have figured out that they’d better cut a deal, if their leader is such a pansy he can only talk tough from Iran.
I’m not so sure, given the methodology in the reporting of Iraq & its use as a political fulcrum, such overt political investments would prevent the Democrats & the MSM from ever recognizing any real successes. Much like their determination to dispel the WMDs argument, any continued attacks, bombings or domestic strife would receive wall to wall 24 hour coverage to show that no matter what is really achieved, the “Iraqi Quagmire†meme is still alive. I believe that the only way for Iraq to have any continued American Democratic & media support would be only if the MSM & Democrats were given what they wanted all along, the Executive Branch. Heaven help us if the Republicans manage to maintain control of the Presidency & regardless of who actually wins the election, they will not only inherent the War in Iraq, but they will be burdened w/ the transference of a renewed, extremely emotional BDS.
SEE, WE TOLD YOU OUR PLAN WOULD WORK !!!
about-face84
Do chlorine gas attacks = “Last Throes?”
I’m sure all our troops in Iraq are kitted out with the finest chemical warfare suits and gas masks already, so nothing to worry about.
Yes, alpo. When you’re attacking with a combination of suicide and pool chemicals, you are indeed in your last throes.
Well, now, see, that’s the funny thing. When the troops went in back in ‘03, there were all these worries, including from those opposed to the war, that US troops would be exposed to WMD, including chemical weapons.
Which is one reason they are equipped with some of the finest protective gear out there.
Of course, those self-same doom-sayers then are the ones crowing about the WMD that wasn’t found and which Dubya “lied” about.
How does that work?
BTW, that same chlorine is stuff that the Left shed many crocodile tears over, b/c Saddam couldn’t use it to chlorinate the water (or so it was said). Thus, the sanctions were mean and nasty, and needed to be removed—the same sanctions that were put in place b/c Saddam wouldn’t reveal, dating back to ‘91, what he had done w/ the WMD-related materials.
Funny thing how that all kinda circles back, when your memory is longer than yesterday’s headlines.
The chemical attacks are quite Teh Stupid. Hey alphie, they are war criminals. It is even more imperative that we stop them in Iraq. They are counting on the horror factor to sway people wirh your mindset against standing up to them. Thats why they use terrorism; for the headline and shock value.
Do you want to wait until they detonate one in Times Square before we take a stronger tand, alphie?
Nevermind, my questions are rhetorical…alphie is the classic poo-flinger.
mmm Balvenieeeee…
It’s obviously working, however. Thge Iraqis all think they are doomed, and that things are much worse than under Saddam. Or did I have that backwards?
alphie – have you ever been in US military chemical gear? Do you have some specific complaints about it that those of us who have actually spent some time in MOPP 4 should know of?
Just that being in a gas attack without one can be problematic, Maj. John.
At least two of today’s gas attacks seem to have been aimed at U.S. military personnel.
Wonder if the bad guys are working up to a gas attack against the Green Zone?
Once more, alpo strikes a boner over the jihadi’s war crimes. The more depraved they get, the hornier he gets.
Sorry, but all hope for “citizen journalism” is lost if this is the sort of stuff that comes with the presentation. And I don’t think there are any fancy arguments to make here concerning intentionalism and interpretations and all the like: The name “Pajamas Media” was intended to convey a sense of informality, and it is certainly succeeding in that quest.
Tom: so are you arguing that the information will be disregarded because the name of an aggregate group of bloggers is (admittedly) goofy?
There’s a trick question in there, I’m sure. But no—it’s not so much that the information will be “disregarded” (though it may well be by certain sorts of readers). It’s that the messenger’s deliberately flippant name adds an extra and unnecessary layer to the processing of the information.
It is a hurdle inserted into the communication between messenger and recipient, because the recipient must at minimum engage in this mental process: Hmm, this information messenger has a casual attitude about its own name; do I need to wonder if that same attitude is applied to its information-gathering?”
Whatever its myriad other faults, the established press understands the value of communication that is as efficient and obstacle-free as possible. That’s why newspapers write at a whatever-grade level, for instance. You don’t present your audience with unnecessary hurdles when your primary goal is clarity and seamlessness.
No trick question intended, I was honestly curious as to why you felt the casual nature of the name would be so important in this case. I see your point as presented in your response, incidentally.
Not especially. Chlorine is an irritant, but not especially toxic in the very small doses that such an attack is likely to inflict on someone. It also disperses fairly quickly, so it’s not a lasting problem. That’s why lots of people were affected, but none of them were killed.
For all intents and purposes, it’s tear gas. Having had a snootful of CS on more than one occasion, I’m here to tell you that while it isn’t a walk in the park, unless you get a massive dose, like the jihadi moron who was fortunately blown to pieces first, you’re just fine after a shower and several hours of fresh air.
You realize that we put that stuff in drinking water and swimming pools, and that the Iraqis also use it to disinfect meat, don’t you?