Last year, I predicted the Colorado Rockies would win 81-85 games (they won 76), and would surprise the National League West (which they managed to do up until just after the all-star break, when team management did nothing to get them what they needed to make a run in a weak division). This off-season, however—while Rockies’ fans bitched and moaned about the loss of Jason Jennings in a trade that brought them a speedy center-fielder and a potential superstar starting pitcher in Jason Hirsh, the Rockies have quietly strengthened themselves in areas that needed to be addressed—making them a rather formidable looking team whose home-grown talent is about ready to blossom.
My concerns with last year’s team were at shortstop (though I rooted for Clint Barmes, I never really thought him nearly as good as his early showings suggested), center field, catcher, and at least one of the five starters (Josh Fogg).
This year, the Rockies have solidified themselves in all of those areas—with the possible exception of shortstop, should not highly-touted phenom Troy Tulowitzki pan out. But even if he doesn’t hit, he can hardly do worse than Barmes last year, and he is a far better fielder, which will strengthen the Rockies’ defense up the middle.
At catcher, another highly-touted rookie, Chris Iannetta, will get a good look this spring, but the Rockies have also brought a hungry Javy Lopez to camp, whose familiarity with the National League—and his history of playing for winning Braves teams—could make him a solid addition, should he stick. Also returning is Yorvit Torrealba, who proved to be a fine run producer last year—though questions about his health continue to dog him.
In center field, the Rockies will likely go with former Astro Willy Taveras, a speedster who plays excellent defense. The downside is that Taveras has never managed an impressive on-base percentage, and will be replacing in the leadoff spot Jamey Carroll, who had one of the league’s best OBP at the top of the order. (Carroll will be used as a roving utility player—and will be quite valuable off the bench and as a spot starter.) The Rockies have also invited Steve Finley to camp—another proven commodity who was hurt last year by playing in the Giants’ cavernous stadium. If he makes the team, he, too, will prove valuable off the bench and as a spot starter—or as a replacement for Taveras should he slump. Last year’s opening day centerfielder, Cory Sullivan, has shown flashes of offensive promise, but he strikes out far too much and seems mentally unprepared at times. Perhaps the extra competition will push him to the next level, but I’m not banking on it. He has all his options left, but he could conceivably be bundled with a starting pitcher like Fogg or Kim in a trade. He’ll be competing with Finley and the versatile Ryan Spillbourghs for one of the final roster spots.
One of the most overlooked “improvements” the Rockies made happened with with patience. Todd Helton—hampered by a bad back in 2005 and intestinal problems in 2006 (which lead to a significant loss of weight and had him trying to power-up on his swing)—came to camp nearly 30 lbs heavier this year and in fantastic shape. Helton will move out of his customary 3 spot in the order and hit cleanup behind Garrett Atkins, whose stats (.329 29 120) eclipsed those of David Wright (.311 26 116), the Mets all-star third baseman. All-Star Matt Holliday (.326 34 114) will bat behind Helton (.302 15 81), giving him plenty of protection, and will be himself protected by Brad Hawpe (.292 22 84), who is poised to have a breakout season (though he could be in a platoon situation with Jeff Baker, who murders lefthanding pitching). Still, Hawpe will receive the majority of the at bats, and could improve on last year’s 22 home runs.
This newly-designed middle of the lineup presents matchup problems for opposing bullpens, who in the past have been able to bring in lefthanders to face Helton and Hawpe, who by season’s end last year were often back-to-back in the lineup. This year, should opposing managers bring in a lefty to face Helton, they’ll be confronted with the choice of leaving him in against Holliday, or else burning him on Helton alone. And even should opposing managers be willing to burn a lefty specialist like that, they’d then face the problem of having the rightie they bring in to face Holliday looking at Hawpe on deck, with Baker available behind him should another lefty be brought in.
What the Rockies give away in the leadoff spot in terms of on-base percentage they hope to make up for with a very dangerous running game. Taveras, the Rockies are hoping, can be a 30-50 steal man, and—should he finally realize that his most dangerous weapon is his ability to bunt for a base hit almost at will—he could create all sorts of problems for opposing pitchers. He’ll be followed in the order by ex-Met Kaz Matsui, who will benefit from being out of the NY media spotlight. Matsui, a bona fide superstar in Japan, struggled up until his brief stint with the Rockies last year, but he showed signs of all the early hype with a solid end-of-season performance. Matsui is a switch hitter with tremendous speed and surprising power, giving the Rockies two table-setters who can rattle a pitcher’s concentration with their speed—and both of whom will be able to score from first on extra base hits. The Rockies 3-6 hitters combined last year to hit 170 doubles and 17 triples.
But the Rockies have always had a serviceable offense. Pitching, though, has been a problem—at least in the days before the humidor. The Astros took the Rockies’ number one starter, an innings-eater in Jason Jennings, who had a fantastic season last year, posting an ERA below 4. But in return, the Rockies acquired Jason Hirsh, who scouts expect could become a dominant top-of-the-rotation starter—as well as Taylor Buchholz, who can spot start and pitch in long relief. Jeff Francis had a sparkling season for the Rockies last year (13 wins, 4.16 era), and as he matures and learns to pitch backward in the counts—and as his control improves—he has a legitimate shot to become a 16-20 game winner, depending on where he pitches in the rotation. Aaron Cook (9 wins, 4.23 era), who could be the Rockies opening day starter, was the victim of a league high 7 blown saves last year. He needs an change-up—often times he relies too heavily on one of the best sinkers in the game and a 93+ mph fastball—but he, too, can eat innings, get hitters to pound the ball into the ground to an above-average defensive infield, and is a candidate to win 15 games.
Most intriguing, though, are the final two spots in the rotation. The Rockies took a flyer on former-Orioles’ opening day starter Roderigo Lopez, who had a miserable season last year, clashing with new Orioles’ pitching coach Leo Mazzone. In Colorado, he will be re-united with former Orioles’ pitching coach Mark Wiley (now in the Rockies front office), under whom Lopez was a double-digit winner at the front end of rotation in the most brutal offensive division in baseball, the AL East.
Lopez could very well rebound this year and put up all-star numbers—so the gamble was a good one, especially considering the depth the Rockies now have in starting pitching, something they haven’t had had in any year that I can remember. The fifth spot in the rotation will be filled by either highly-touted prospect Ubaldo Jimenez, Mexican standout Oscar Rivera, Josh Fogg, Byung-Hyun Kim, or, once he’s ready, former Padre innings-eater Brian Lawrence, another proven commodity who, if healthy, could produce numbers very similar to those of the departed Jennings—and, because he’d be pitching at the back end of the rotation, could, too, reach double-digits in wins.
To shore up the bullpen, the Rockies acquired setup man LaTroy Hawkins, who will combine with All-Star closer Brian Fuentes and a number of good young arms (I particularly like Manuel Corpas) to give the Rockies plenty of depth, and plenty of maneuvering for situational matchups. Danny Graves, Dave Veres, and Matt Herges—all proven relievers—will be given a chance to win spots, should any of them bounce back from injury or poor performance.
Most intriguing there is Graves, a former All-Star closer for the Reds who, should he be able to rediscover his release point and correct his mechanics, could turn into a steal. But even if he doesn’t work out, he’s certainly worth a look: the Rockies love sinker ball pitchers, and as their defense up the middle improves with Tulowitzki and Matsui, having so many of them on the staff can shorten innings considerably by way of the double-play ground ball.
So I’m actually quite excited about the Rockies this season—who I believe could shock fans and critics alike and win 84-90 games. I still think the Dodgers are the team to beat in the division (they have a stellar starting rotation, but they still are vulnerable offensively), but I am going to buck the prevailing wisdom of baseball prognosticators and pick the Rockies as the NL wild card team (giving them an outside chance to win the division). The x-factor is going to be how well Clint Hurdle manages to win, rather than to teach.
Vegas has the over / under on Rockies victories at 74, last I checked. Those of you who are betting folk might want to take the over. And bet high.
Yeah. Real interesting.
WHEN ARE WE GOING TO HEAR MORE ABOUT ANNA NICHOLE’S BURIAL???? I DEMAND COVERAGE.
If Steve Finley still has any gas in the tank, he’s a great addition. I was able to watch him play for the Padres for a few years. That guy is a Hoover in CF.
At 42, that’s a big “if” though. Trust me on that one.
Nice baseball post. I am a Giants fan. They suck now. End of my story.
Well, Finley wouldn’t be the everyday CF. And he’s a physical marvel.
I first saw him play as a rookie for the Orioles back in the day. Then we packaged him with Harnisch and Schilling for Glenn Davis and have never really recovered—though Brady Anderson had some great years in CF for the Birds.
I know this is an allegory about the shift to a Democratic Congress, but I’m having trouble making all the connections.
Todd Helton as Lieberman is pretty self-explanatory. But you lost me when you got to pitchers and catcher. I didn’t realize that much sex went on in DC. Guess I need to read more blogs…
GO TIGERS!
”…Lopez could very well rebound this year and put up all-star numbers.”
At first I thought you were still talking about
Javy Lopez and i was going to chide you for getting into the P&P* cocktails this early in the day.
Never mind…
(* = <a href=”http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,903912,00.html” target=”_Parest”> and <a href=”http://www.pepelopez.com/” target=”_Pepe Lopez”>
Good summary! Javy Lopez is done – I doubt he’ll stick on the roster – but Willy Tavarez provides much-needed speed to patrol Coors’ spacious centerfield.
Losing Jennings will hurt the staff (I was hoping the Twins would snare him), but there are a couple young pitchers who may be able to step up and fill part of the void.
Fuentes is a good closer, but I fear you will be as disappointed in Hawkins as Twins fans were. He is capable of brilliant, shut-down work one night, followed by a week of getting shelled. Maybe a(nother) change of venue will do him good.
The combination of speed at the top and power through the middle should win some games – especially at home – but I think the pitching will be found wanting once more. I think a .500 season is a reasonable goal. I do hope they find pitching soon, as I really want to see Helton (one of the great swings in modern baseball) get a crack at a ring.
The Phillies might actually get to the World Series this year. I like the fact that a couple of players are already talking smack with the Mets, something not usually heard around here.
On the other hand there’s that whole Perpetual Losers and Lunatics thing…
BTW I hears that Rodrigo was a head case with great talent so it’s no surplrise that he clashed with Leo “I run the robots.” Hope he keeps his head together but I worry about his psyche the 500 ft. haven.
With much fear and trepidation in fear of offending The Gods Of Baseball, there is a lot of excitement about the prospects for the Phillies this year.
Now watch, because I typed that, Ryan Howard will break his leg.
TW: hit81…..NOW CUT THAT OUT, JEFF!!!!!
Let’s go, Mets!
heh!
Great minds share great frustrations. NOB, you should be shot for writing that about Howard!
BTW:Brett Myers as a closer? Say it ain’t so!
Well, Hawkins is another Mesa—and who knows? Maybe Danny Graves bounces back. Plus there are some excellent young arms in the bullpen.
The starting rotation is going to be key. And I think the Rockies have a bunch of very good young arms there.
They won 76 games last year with Kim and Fogg in the rotation. I think they have upgraded considerably.
It’s always been said that a second marriage is the victory of hope over experience. Looking at the comments here, I think they could include the start of baseball season as well.
JG,
In keeping with the sports theme but still off subject, whaddya think of your Broncos getting Dre Bly from my (“my”?) Lions? What’s the skinny on the right tackle that was part of the deal? Is he any good?
Go Tigers.
Jeff,
Very interesting and in-depth analysis of the Rox for the upcoming season.
A few other things to consider;
– Torreabla is not a full-time catcher, but splitting time with Javy may help to keep him healthy and productive.
– Taylor Buchholz was a key part of the Billy Wagner deal when he was traded to the Astro’s from Philadelphia and damn near threw a no-hitter
in his big league debut. Could be a sleeper.
– As you point out, the outfield might be one of the best offensive units in the NL, but aside from Helton (who’s getting a bit long in the tooth), the infield is full of questions marks.
– The biggest wild card is Mgr. Clint Hurdle, who many times last year cost his team wins with some really questionable pitching moves, not to mention game strategy. Did the Rox pick up any new bench coaches to help Clint improve his X’s & O’s?
– Sadly, the Rockies have the lowest salary expenditure in the NL West, once again. Which means they won’t attract the better free agents.
– Steve Finley is done. Watched him last year for the Giants and the days of his being a .300 hitting, 20/20 man are over. He may provide some spark off the bench, but he’s vulnerable to inside heat now that his bat has slowed down.
I predict the Coors faithful will be booing him by the All-Star break and retirement looms.
– As always, pitching wil prove to be the Rox achillies heel. Too many youngsters who’s ERA’s will balloon in the thin air.
– Finally, yea they’ll be better than last year,
but an NL wildcard team? ‘Fraid there’s a better chance of a dancing armadillo appearance at PW tomorrow than this Rox team playing into October.
Dodgers can’t be beat!
TW:military69…I don’t want to touch THAT with a 10-foot pole, or poll.
I’m more interested in minor-league baseball. AA or below, unless it’s the Sacramento River Cats.
GO TIGERS!
Posted by Carin | permalinkGo Tigers.
Posted by LionDude | permalink
Did the go and teach their pitchers how to pick up a baseball and throw it to first base yet?
I still haven’t figured out how to thank them for the fielding funnies in last years Series.
Hope to see you in October.
We have what amounts to a minor league team here in KC. When Ewing Kauffman was alive it was a different story, but the Wal-Mart guy–even though he’s been loyal enough to Mr. K’s wishes not to sell or move the team–hasn’t been willing so far to do what it takes to put a winning team on the field.
Likely outcome? 100 losses again this year, I reckon.
Jim in KC –
I hope not. It would be great to get the Cardinals/Royals rivalry cranked up.
It would make interleague play worthwhile.
Denkinger! Never forget!
I haven’t heard about the Broncos trade, but if it’s George Foster you’re getting, yeah, he has real potential.
Jeff
Don’t get to excited by Finley. Being a life long Angels fan, I endured the season when he played for the Halos, where his batting average hovered a tad above .239. Looks like Gary Matthews Jr was on the list for shipments of HGH, makes me wonder if there is an out clause written in the contracts these guys sign regarding the use of banned substances.
Right now the Angels look like they have been duped, the only way they come out looking good, is if Matthews Jr has another great season…
proudvastrightwingconspirator —
The thin air here is negated by the use of the humidor—and if you’ll check the Rockies pitching rankings last year, I think you’ll be surprised. And they’ve gotten better overall—though losing Jennings hurts unless Jimenez is ready or Lawrence can come back to form.
Bucholz, who I like, got shelled yesterday, but I agree he could be a sleeper. Of course, I thought the same thing about Zach Day, and that didn’t do me to well last year.
As for the Rockies infield, I don’t know about the question marks—at least, vs. last year. We still have Jamey Carroll (who got the bulk of the work at second), if Matsui doesn’t pan out, and we still have Barmes if Tulowitzki doesn’t pan out.
Other than that, I think most teams would take a corner infield tandem that combined for 88 doubles, over 200 rbi, and a batting average well above .300 in a year where Helton never got on track.
Barring injury, Helton will have a bounce back year this year. Remember, he nearly died from an intestinal problem last year and never fully recovered his strength. He tried to compensate by jerking balls out to right field, which meant he was swinging earlier and harder, and consequently he was popping the ball up more than any other time in his career. But the guy is a career .330 hitter, so I wouldn’t count him out at, what, 33?
If Tulowitzki can hit .240 he should remain the everyday shortstop. He is a spectacular fielder with a canon for an arm—and his defense could change games. He’s the Rockies Kalil Green, albeit a bit more raw offensively.
I’m mostly concerned with catcher at this point, and about Taveras’ ability to get on base. He needs a .350 OBP. The Rockies like to keep the infield grass high for their sinker ballers, which could really help Taveras beat out bunts and infield grounders.
I think 3/5 of the starting rotation is proven solid. Who fills the other two spots, and how well they do, will determine a lot about the Rockies’ season.
Josh Fogg is a gamer, but I have a better fastball than he does, and though he wins games, an era over 5 doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence—especially when last year’s top three (Jennings, Francis, and Cook) combined for an ERA just a hair over 4—which in this day and age is pretty good.
Jeff,
The Broncos gave up Tatum Bell, George Foster, and a draft pick (believed to be 5th round) for Bly.
Source
Rickinstl,
I missed the last three games of that series–I was in Marine Corps boot camp. It seems like those games are pretty well-attended though. I’m not sure if it’s the rivalry or just because Pujols went to Park Hill.
To me, St. Louis has always seemed like the western-most eastern city, Kansas City like the eastern-most wild west city. Plus, you guys have way more French-sounding stuff on that side of the state than we do…
I’ll make this post for the Avalanche next season. I know you’re all waiting with baited breath.
I can’t help but be skeptical of the Rockies season and frankly, their indeffinate future. The Rockies didn’t even carry a payroll that met the NHL salary cap last year. Fans were lead to believe that “generation R” was going to home brew pitching and build a future. Once that future was realized, management was going to take care of them. A deal like Jennings is sobering to say the least. Sure, we can go Ringlesby and look at all the positive aspects of the deal if you like but the bottom line is management didn’t do what they said they were going to do with their starting pitching. They let a kid go that wasn’t mentally ruined by Coors field and in fact, enjoyed great success if not horrible run support. Toss a 1 year deal for Holliday in the mix and the realistic Rockies fan knows what’s going to happen to Holliday in the offseason. He’s going to get paid big time, and it’s highly likely it won’t be by the Rockies. Those two deals send a really depressing message to both fans and players I think. There’s always that faint hope that management is going to do what they say. It’s hard not to believe. The Rockies are well past their expansion days and without a change in ownership it’s hard to have any faith.
Look, I hope that Hirsh is the next great thing but shouldn’t Rockies fans expect him to get delt just like Jennings as soon as he’s ready to get paid? How long will that even take? I suspect by the time he’s ready to make that splash (and unlike Jennings, he’s still a prospect and as such we can only hope he approaches the performance of Jennings) most Rockies fans will smell the fresh grass in Arizona and believe that maybe, just maybe ownership isn’t jerking around with us again.
As far as Taveras is concerned, didn’t we already try this experiment with the more talented Juan Pierre? I’m not sure what good Taveras’ speed is when he can’t get on base. If he can bunt his way on base at will you’d think he would have done so by now.
Good overview of the Rockies, Jeff. I’m excited for the Rox this year. Can’t wait to go and boo the Yankees.
Last year was depressing because they got ahead of themselves when they got near the division lead around the all-star break. I had 4 box seats to the last game of the year and literally could not give them away.
Are you at all worried about the bench? Situtional hitting seems weak for the Rockies this year. There don’t seem to be a lot of pretty options coming off the bench.
Series96? Cut that out!
I like Baker and Finley / Carroll / Mabry off the bench. I also like Spillbourgh, but I don’t know if he’ll stick.
The final roster should tell us a lot.
Dario—Pierre had a terrible arm. Taveras is a far better center fielder.
And let’s not forget that in the Pierre years, scoring runs wasn’t the problem. Pitching—particularly a lousy bullpen—was the problem.
Plus, you guys have way more French-sounding stuff on that side of the state than we do
Yeah, no kidding. There were a lot of frogs around here in the 18th century.
It’s fun to see what we’ve done to the pronunciations of all the things they named after themselves.
How would you pronounce “Gravois”? “Creve Couer?” or “Gratiot?”
Hell if I know. I can barely manage “Chouteau.” But if the lesson of Versailles (“Ver-sales” in MO-speak, of course) is any lesson, it probably doesn’t matter much. Just wing it.
I have watched nearly every major league game Willy has played. He is a treat to watch. But if you’re looking for him to improve upon his OBP by bunting more, well, you’re going to be disappointed. He bunts for hits like nobody I’ve ever seen. He has already led the league—in his rookie season –in infield hits. You’ll get your 30 steals, though; he’s done it in both of his full seasons. The problem is that he doesn’t walk. 25 and 34 in two seasons. What you are hoping for is that he’ll regain some of his minor league form, and start hitting alley-to-alley. He could hit doubles and triples out the ass in Coors if he does. Great D. Got a little case of the big head early last year, got benched, got over it.
Hirsh—no ‘c’—is probably going to be the real catch in that trade. He only made nine ML appearances, so I’m not going to opine.
If Buchholz can manage his emotions, he has the potential to be very solid. But when he takes off his hat to wipe the sweat off his brow, it is time to get ‘em up in the pen, ‘cuz he’s losing it. I won’t miss him.
Yeah, Phil. Another thing I forgot to mention about Taveras is that he could turn a lot of singles into doubles at Coors. At Minute Maid, the real extra base hit room is either off the wall in left or up the hill in center. At Coors, Taveras could probably hustle his way to a lot of doubles.
More than a few of the Rockies hitters are good at taking pitches—notably Jamey Carroll. Maybe somebody can get it through Taveras’ skull that all that’s standing between him and superstardom is his willingness to take a walk.
Incidentally, I should point out that Hurdle managed me out of being dead on with my predictions last year. He personally cost us at least 5 wins with his managerial missteps.
Not saying he’s a bad manager—I actually like the guy a lot, and he admits when he makes mistakes—but he has to improve as well. And this is the year to do it.
Jeff, take it from a Red Sox fan who watched Byung-Hyun Kim shit all over himself for the better part of two seasons: the guy is terrible. Watching him pitch is like watching a train wreck unfold in slow motion.
Oh, we’ve had him for a while now. He can be great at times, but I think his days here are numbered. Hurdle had no faith in him, really—and I think we’re going to see some new blood in the rotation this year.
I’m hoping Aaron Cook worked on a changeup. Because he could win 16-20 games if develops a decent one.
Ah yes, the sound of undefeated teams in March, where hope springs eternal and the wide eyed wonder of fans expectations and longing clash like a curry and confit at a Soho art show.
Attila:
As far as the Mets are concerned, it will be a race as to whether their starting pitching reaches 200 innings or Social Security Benefits first.
GO PHILLIES!
Admit it, Jeff! How cool would it be to have ManChild Ryan Howard hitting moon shots at Coors? Citizen’s being a bandbox has made for some fun homer moments (he’s already cracked the 500 ft. mark.)
The best news for the Rockies is, despite their meager payroll and suspect starting pitching, that division sucks and is there for the taking. Tavares, for all of his OBP faults, is a definite upgrade, especially defensively (he’s got Gold Glove skills.)
BC: As a growing up (and still) Red Sox fan, ditto on Kim. That kid’s heart is about the size of a peanut M & M.
Well, Finley wouldn’t be the everyday CF. And he’s a physical marvel.
I first saw him play as a rookie for the Orioles back in the day.
Now, that was an outfield. You could make an argument that it was the best ever, certainly the best since Henderson, Armas, and Murphy.
BJ and O’Brain, I always wait uintil the last minute to find out what’s going on in Philly. Are they really talking about putting Myers in the bullpen?
God, I love late spring/early summer games at Coors Field.
Best place to watch baseball… EVAH!
CraigC
The Phillies are at least floating the trial balloon. Myers has said that he would do it, but only as closer. They already have Flash Gordon who weas having a pretty spectacular year until his shoulder gave out in the second have (they still lead the NL in leads held after the 7th inning.)
Their “problem” is 6 starters with John Leiber being the odd man out and the one they would like to trade. Leiber can’t be a bullpen guy because he is one of the worst fielding pitchers in baseball. So Hamels, Jaime Moyer, Adam Eaton, Freddie Garcia (from the White Sox) are locks. Meyers was arguably their most consistant starter over the last 2 years. It’s an embarrasment of riches and I suspect that Pat “poof and your’e gone” Gillick will find somebody with a setup guy who needs a starter.
Hamels is the star in the making IMHO. He’s 23, left handed, throws in the low to mid nineties with control and one of those big sweeping backdoor curveballs. His money pitch is a world class change up that he can spot wherever he wants. Seems to have a great demeanor and is maturing just at the right time.
Hey, Jeff! How about the Rocks? Leiber moves like an epileptic pool cleaner but he’s a sinker ball pitcher who kept his ERA in the 4’s pitching at teeny Citizen’s Bank Park. Ya got a setup guy you want to trade for a starter?
Oh contaire, my good man. The Cubs just spent $300 million in the offseason and will still be lucky to finish above .500. Lou Pinella will be carted off in a straitjacket in September.
Their new motto should be “The Chicago Cubs – seriously, can we make it two centuries without a World Series? Is that even mathematically possible?”
BJTexs:
True, but all of them are younger than I am, which by definition makes them young.
I think many of you are seriously underestimating the potential of the Rockies’ starting pitching this year.
Granted, things could go terribly wrong—Cook and Francis can both take steps backward, Lopez could prove Mazzone correct, Brian Lawrence’s arm could not heal properly, and Hirsh can become the Kerry Wood of Coors—but such could happen to any staff.
But look at the stats. The Rockies don’t have the big names, but they have at least three guys who could be top of the rotation starters on many teams—and if all goes well, they could have a very solid five man rotation.
By the way, Holliday matches Ryan Howard for power. And Atkins and Helton are two of the better hitters in baseball. If Coors wasn’t using the humidor, some of the balls Holliday hit would go well over 500 ft.
One of the reasons Helton’s average was down last year—and why he tried jerking the ball out—is that many of the balls he would hit out to the opposite field were warning track shots last year. He just didn’t have the strength. This year, we’ll see those balls go out of the yard again—or at least go off the wall.
Jeff,
There is a chance that one of the Dodgers pitchers buys the team and makes himself the closer and 5th starter ( Heaven can wait) So maybe the Rockies have a chance
Todd,
Angels got a bat yet?
Rockies pitching stunned me last year, they were top notch and I was glad to see it. In their short history, the Rockies have focused on short-term big stars and the long ball, which gives you fancy stats and almost to the post season or one round in over and over but never takes you to the next step. Pitching wins in the post season, just ask their brother expansion team the Marlins.
I’m not much of a standaround fan, but I saw a story on Gumbel’s HBO show the other day on the Howard kid from Philly. Great Kid. He and his parents kinda restore my faith in humanity and in the greatness of America.
Glad to see other Cards fans on here. I can’t wait to see them again this season because last season I was simply amazed by them.
Jeez, BJ, I said that I waited until the last minute every year, not that I haven’t been paying attention for a year. But thanks for that update on Cole Hamels.
Go Dodgers
Agreed!
However, I agree with Jeff. I think they win in the 80’s and push the Dodgers for 1st. If the pitching moves all work out they could walk away with it. I think Helton is going to break out his big-boy bat this year and hit 50+ homers. Picking up Lopez was a fantastic move and will replace Jennings and then some.
The low salary figures do not mirror the talent level of this team. They are loaded with young, talented players with tons of potential. Finley and Kim are a bust, but otherwise the Rockies worry me.
The Phightin’s will make the playoffs this year. They’d have made it last year if Gillick hadn’t traded Bobby Abreu for a box of crayons. Trust me, nobody they got from the Yankees for him will ever be 10% as good as Bobby.
Yes, the Phils are thinking about making Brett Myers the closer. If they do, they are fools: he’s been their best starter for 2 years now. Cole Hamels is the real deal, but Myers is clearly better than anyone else in the rotation. I like Freddy Garcia, but he’s lost velocity on his fastball. This is not good.
I don’t see why Lieber’s atrocious fielding would prevent him from pitching relief. He Who Must Not Be Named was the worst fielding pitcher I’ve ever seen, and he was fine as a reliever until the ‘93 playoffs. God, I hate Jim Fregosi. Even my mom could see H.W.M.N.B.N. had nothing left in the tank. I’ll go to my grave believing there’d have been a game 7 if Tommy Greene had pitched to Joe Carter. Anyway, the Phils ought to hold on to Lieber for now. Odds are they’ll need a 6th starter before the season’s done. Garcia could fizzle; Hamels could get hurt; Myers could beat up his wife again.
Four quibbles, Jeff:
1. Willy Taveras will never learn to take a walk, and is therefore an awful leadoff man. Meh, maybe I shouldn’t say never – he is only 25. It’s still extremely unlikely. He is an outstanding CF who should hit 8th.
2. His stolen bases are worth ~2 runs. Big whoop.
3. The concept of protecting the previous hitter is a myth. The only consistent effects when a good hitter bats behind another good hitter is the 1st guy will get fewer IBB (and thus score fewer runs) & more RBI (because he’s not being walked with a runner on 2nd). The net effect is zero.
4. There ain’t no way in hell Matt Holliday has as much power as Ryan Howard. Howard needs a nickname. I suggest Ryno. If Ivan Rodriguez can steal Carlton Fisk’s nickname, Howard can steal Ryne Sandberg’s. Ryne owes us anyway.
I do agree the Rockies will be better this year. I predict 82-80. The Phils will be 89-73, and have a real shot at winning the division – especially if MLB starts testing the Mets’ rotation for Geritol. Not that it matters: they will lose in the playoffs. It’s a Philadelphia thing; you wouldn’t understand. At least we still have Harry Kalas.
I don’t believe “protection” to be a myth. I’ve watched fastball hitters placed in the number two hole who get to hit in front of guys like Helton absolutely feast on fat pitches when ahead in the count.
And yes, Holliday is as powerful as Ryan Howard. He just doesn’t have a homerun hitter’s swing. But he squared up some balls last year that were absolute monster shots. And—well, look at the guy.
Re: Taveras. Again, he needs to get on base more. But it’s what people like him do to the concentration of opposing pitchers when they are on base that accounts for runs. Similarly, as I noted in a comment, Coors gives a guy with his speed the opportunity for a lot of leg doubles.
It’s not impossible, either, that Matsui moves to leadoff, and Taveras gets dropped in the order should he not get on base. Depends on who the shortstop is. If Barmes is able to hit again, he fits perfectly at number two (see above on “protection”); Tulowitzki? Not so much.
Everybody feasts on fat pitches when ahead in the count, regardless of who bats behind them. I’d say “you’ll see”; but Helton’s going to have a better year anyway, assuming he stays healthy. He’d better: .302 w/ 15 HR’s by a first baseman in Coors ain’t gettin’ it done.
If Ryan Howard played a mile in the sky, he’d hit the ball 550 feet, humidor or no humidor. I’m not taking anything away from Holliday. He’s the best outfielder on either team.
There’s actually a good argument to be made that base stealers are an offensive detriment. The batting average of the next hitter following a SB attempt drops ~30 points. They distract the hitter more than the pitcher.
I like Barmes (and Taveras even more), but they have the same problem: no plate discipline. I know zip about Tulowitzki.
This thread is dead, but on the off chance you’re reading this, Molyuk, Fregosi should have left the old man in instead of bringing in You-Know-Who. Yeah, he looked like he was about to have a heart attack any second, but he was getting hitters out. They asked Fregosi about that after the game, and he said, “We’ve been doing it that way all year.” If I could have reached through the TV screen, I’d have strangled him.
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