From the Financial Times:
Iran will be able to develop enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb and there is little that can be done to prevent it, an internal European Union document has concluded.
In an admission of the international community’s failure to hold back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the document –- compiled by the staff of Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief –- says the atomic programme has been delayed only by technical limitations rather than diplomatic pressure. “Attempts to engage the Iranian administration in a negotiating process have not so far succeeded,†it states.
Hmm. Perhaps they simply aren’t trying hard enough, or you know—using the right “carrots.” Or else, Bush’s cowboy posturing is making it impossible for Iran to come to the table in good faith. Though they’d certainly like to.
Having the American military in Iraq certainly isn’t helping things, either. Plus, EuroDisney and Cinemax After Dark?—abominations that, like Israel, simply must be destroyed in an atomic burst of hellfire, Allah willing. Because of the western economic colonialism underpinning in the entire sham edifice of “globalization” and such.
Have I forgotten anything? Because if we’re satisfied to sit by and let things spiral out of control, it’s always best have a set of excuses to trot out on the backend, I’ve found.
The downbeat conclusions of the “reflection paper†–- seen by the Financial Times –- are certain to be seized on by advocates of military action, who fear that Iran will be able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb over the next two to three years. Tehran insists its purposes are purely peaceful.
“At some stage we must expect that Iran will acquire the capacity to enrich uranium on the scale required for a weapons programme,†says the paper, dated February 7 and circulated to the EU’s 27 national governments ahead of a foreign ministers meeting yesterday.
“In practice . . . the Iranians have pursued their programme at their own pace, the limiting factor being technical difficulties rather than resolutions by the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.
“The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone.â€Â
So. What to make of this? Does this give the US and Israel the tacit go-ahead to pull the military option off the table in order to dress it Kevlar and give its very own chair and a big plate of carbs?
Writes Allahpundit:
Letting Iran have the bomb means letting the Saudis and Egyptians have it, too, since the U.S. isn’t about to line up against the Sunnis any more so than we’ve already done in Iraq. Israel can’t afford proliferation in the Middle East and the Sunni governments probably aren’t all that hot for the idea either given the threat they face from jihadis, so if it comes to the point where attacking is the only solution, the IAF will play deus ex machina. Or rather, they’ll try to.
But we’re not there yet.
Just as it is certain Iran is actively meddling in Iraq, it is equally certain that US Special Forces have penetrated Iran and gathered whatever intel is necessary to create a workable plan for throttling—even if only temporarily—Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The difference being that the Iranians aren’t constrained to act by the braying of their political dissidents.
Which is to say, with people like Wes Clark shrieking from the sidelines that any attack on Iran will only serve to prove that our government has been usurped by a shadowy cabal of monied New York Jews, and with member members of the Democratic Congress stepping over each other to appear more anti-war than the next (cf John Edward’s recent rhetorical contortions on his Iran position, in which the presidential hopeful was whipped by the netroots into walking back erstwhile muscular rhetoric in favor of unintelligible pap), the chances of a strong US military maneuver are slim. Hell, even a cluster of Republican politicos are so worried about polls that they’d happily to kick the can down the road a bit, if doing so would assuage those suffering from war fatigue and keep the GOP puffed shirts in the good graces of the voting public.
Leadership being overrated when you can have power instead.
Sadly, Iran’s greatest ally is western public opinion—tethered as it is to a completely neutered and feckless EU and UN and an international press that is largely hostile to Israel. And the mullahs know it.
Which reminds me: did the sight of Diane Sawyer interviewing Achmanidinejihad on “Good Morning America” this morning—her head dutifully wrapped in a scarf while the Iranian president rebuked her again and again for interrupting –make anyone else a little bit queasy? Particularly when Diane came away from the interview noting that the big fella’ seems to have softened his stance somewhat on that whole rain of hellfire thing, allowing that it is up to the “Palestinians” whether Israel be granted permission to exist?
Why, what good news! Back to you, Robin!
But who knows. Maybe I’m just one of those serial bedwetters. Perhaps the next strongly worded condemnation from the EU will cause the mullahs to blink. Then, we can all go back to our dreams of universal healthcare, and President Obama can teach us all how to overcome our hatred for the brown man.
President Obama? Wait’ll you see the pulvarized, bloody pulp of his carcass once HillBillary comes a’ callin’.
Didn’t Mossad have a little something to do with the Iranian nuclear scientist death? How bout a little of that magic on the Dinnerjacket guy?
I’m convinced that Europe is fully prepared to shake its head sadly and write a few letters if Iran nukes Israel from end to end. They might even have trade sanctions for a year or so.
And secretly, they’d shrug and move on, glad to have THAT little problem off their hands.
And the Guardian would editorialize that it was sad, but Israel asked for it, by insisting on, you know, existing.
The European Union is intentionally misleading us in a rush to war with no plan to keep the peace. I’m not saying they’re lying, but I don’t think they’re being truthful. But don’t get me wrong…I will be glad if the nukular capability of Iran is eliminated. I just get fussy when I want it to appear I wasn’t told the truth…or something like that. Must…twist…more…
Is that the link you wanted for “kick the can down the road a bit” … ?
“Iran on course for nuclear bomb.”
Well, duh.
Upon reflection, the indifference of the West to the slaughter in Rwanda and Darfur has forshadowed and thrown into high relief the reality of its cultural and spiritual death. It has succumbed to hopelessness and despair. The only thing left is for us to recognize this.
I’m preparing for two things: 1) the destruction of most of Israel as leaders in the West stand around making excuses for their inaction and 2) the world war that will result when the idea of acquiescing to our own destruction becomes too much for some of us.
Maybe this will force a re-birth of the West, but we have a lot further to descend before we can rise again.
No. It was supposed to go elsewhere.
The link that is to go in its place, which I can’t find just now, was the Baker Commission Report suggesting we talk with Iran—in between their parliamentary shouts of “Death to America,” presumably.
The EU isn’t even making strongly worded condemnations anymore. They have shrugged and basically said “over to you, Zionists and Imperialist Cowboys….please.”
Being the S-5 of a Sustainment Brigade, I recon I’ll be involved in explaining to the few surviovrs of the eventual nuclear exchange that “we are here to help…now. Sorry ‘bout that.”
At least I won’t have to explain my poor typing skills…
Bismarck is quoted to the effect that God looks out for fools, drunks, and the United States of America. I wonder if our luck is running out?
This post, albeit obliquely, reminds me of Steven den Beste’s strategic overview. In effect, this post updates the reasons for a (still more) muscular policy in the Middle East in general and specifically why Iraq is so important.
I get queasy whenever I see (or even hear about) a western reporter fellating a strongman or a strongman’s mouthpiece. We have reporters declaring that “everything the Bush administration says is a lie” while simultaneously swallowing as gospel everything coming from Ahmanidinejad.
It makes me wonder if they realize how foolish and evil they appear.
Seems like we have two options:
1. Do nothing.
2. Launch an impotent attack on Iran that won’t stop them from getting nukes but will kill thousands of innocent Iranians, make our continued presence in Iraq untenable and make America an international pariah.
Tough call.
No.
No they don’t.
Wow, alphie. I bet you’re not even aware you’ve committed a fallacy with that one.
Idiot.
According to you and your buddy John Kerry and the rest of the ‘progressives’ alphie, the US is already an international pariah.
Also, I love your plan is basically
a. Be a complete pussy
b. Be a complete pussy.
Yes, for those of us not complete pussys, it is a tough call.
No, alpee. Only in your life are you confronted with the options:
1. Do nothing.
2. Do something ineffective and destructive.
That is you projecting your personal problems onto this international security problem.
You don’t have an actual political view, you just have personal problems that color your politics.
It seems you have a constant loop running in your head that says: “If I take action, people won’t like me.”
I believe you hate the Bush administration and particulary the military because their decisiveness and courage in confronting problems is a complete rebuke to the mincing, cowardly way you have always live.
Decisiveness and confidence in others makes you feel bad because it highlights all that you lack and all the chances you missed….
You’ve got a personal problem with confidence and learned passiveness.
Stop taking it out on us.
Actually, I think spelling survivors of a nuclear exchange “surviovrs” is descriptively appropriate.
I’m sure alphie is very decisive in acting if one of two conditions is met:
1. The outcome is 100% guaranteed.
2. The course of action fits his worldview.
Look to the Dixie Chix lyrics for answers to all these questions alphie.
……..look harder.
Iran: Technology 65 years behind ours, Dominant culture 700 years behind ours. What a combination. This is why there’s a Prime Directive on Star Trek (I mean, apart from no cellulite in outer space).
Obviously offensive military action against Iran is risky, esp since the armed forces of the United States are already embroiled in conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and have numerous other roles worldwide. A “pure” air power action may degrade Iran’s nuclear capability, but it will also have probable effects in the realm of our economy (fuel prices), stability in Iraq (gloves off for the Shi’tes we are supporting), and incidentally probably cause significant collateral damage in Iran which will further degrade the US standing in the world (and that’s not completely irrelevant.)
Therefore the situation re: Iran is serious and there are no easy or simple solutions. It doesn’t help that the American people are not behind the current effort, for a variety of reasons. I have yet to hear a political leader deliver an effective “This is what we gotta do” speech. That is a major failure.
Over the last 5 years I’ve written a number of times about how difficult it is to negotiate the Iran problem.
Once constant? Five years have passed, and things have gotten progressively worse.
Seems like alphie has two options:
1. Do nothing.
2. Launch an impotent attack on Protien Wisdom that won’t stop them from being conservative but will annoy thousands of innocent blog readers, make our continued presence in the comments untenable and make liberals in general an online pariah.
You could substitute just about any situation into alphie’s words and totally get him and how he lives.
The dishes need to be washed.
Well, it looks like we have two options.
1. Do nothing.
2. Launch an impotent attack on the dirty dishes that won’t stop them from being dirty again but will keep me from commenting on PW, make the dishes continued presence in the sink untenable and make food in general an clean dish pariah.
Man, that is brilliant.
Gray,
This is not a joke.
If we launch and unprovoked attack on Iran, we better be prepared to go it alone in the world.
No more oil.
No more foreign credit.
No more markets for our exports.
At a minimum, we’re looking at a huge economic depression.
Worst case, America falls over the impeachment trial of George W. Bush.
We become a failed state.
All for what would essentially be an empty gesture.
I think alphie is monkyboy’s bastard spawn, myself.
Really? People are going to stop doing business with us? The same people who gleefully do business with Sudan, China, Saddam’s Iraq, etc? The people who cooked up the Oil For Food scam to keep on supplying arms to Saddam despite UN-imposed sanctions are going to stop doing business with the US if we do anything to the country that’s been at war with us for 30 years?
What would the effect be on the rest of the world if they stopped trading with the US? Once you comprehend that, you’ll realize that it’s simply impossible.
Who keeps telling you your opinions have worth? Because whoever it is, they’re lying to you.
No, alpee. Youare the joke.
We have two choices:
1. Do nothing
2. Built an impotent balloon fence that won’t stop Iran missiles but will kill thousands of innocent seagulls, make our continued presence in Iraq untenable and make America a waterfowl pariah.
No need to worry about Iran anymore folks – Joe Biden and four other senators have sent a secret letter to Ahmamahdinutjob and his masters to “resolve” the problem.
If that fails, we can always count on Jamie Rubin and his execreble wife <a href=”<a href=”http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?story id=8924″>Christiane</a> to save the day.
I love free-lancers
Well, this situation is not a joke, but you and your analysis certainly is. No more oil? You are ignoring the fact that I personally, am, at this moment, sitting atop billions of barrels of untapped oil. That will probably never be tapped, but just the same. No more foreign credit? With the United States being the largest financial market in the world, I find that hard to believe.. Ok, at this point I am just wasting everyone’s time debating your dumbass analysis.
tw: plan18, plan9’s duplicate.
Yes, the entire world, including Mexico and (Sunni) Saudi Arabia will order a global blockade on oil routes to the United States if we attack Iran.
Why?
B/c alphie said so.
Is this what happened when you got the Executive Summary you summarily summoned yesterday, alphie?
Pe-haps we should go back to tawking to widdle alphie like the addle-pated poltwoon dat he is, b/c his watest widdle posting would certainly indicate dat!
Weally, widdle alphie. Aw we to bewieve dat, on your say-so, the woild will shun Amewica? Perhaps you see yourself like Kim Jong-il, and just as ronery?
Awwww, widdle alphie! So sad! So ronery!
I saw this on TV last night and thought of this. It made me feel sad.
First off, *lph**, it wouldn’t be an unprovoked attack on innocent old Iran. They are provoking us as you sit there touching yourself. Oh, and yes, the world’s “acceptance” is all that is truly important for you. Somehow, I think the world will learn to understand and get over it.
=”I don’t like myself”, “Can’t you all just not like yourselves, too?”, “Can’t you understand me?”.
“Oh Dark Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood.”
I’d tap it.
I would too, If I had the mineral rights. Problem is, I dont. And, Liberals wont let us drill for any new oil here in michigan.
Shamefully, just three weeks ago I was thinking the same thing about Anna Nicole.
The medium-sized ANS, not the huge one.
alright…….maybe the huge one too
If you’d prefer, you can leave your alphie comments here. Otherwise, you can probably find some useful cut and paste stuff there.
Apparently everone has tapped that! “Im spermicus!” they all claim.
I’m guessing that one of the many ass-whippings alphie received in gym class must have done some serious damage….
Woa, forgot the “going it alone” part in my parody post above. A thanks to Alphie for the reminder.
Robert C.,
If it weren’t for some Truthers being, well, Truthers in the comments section at QandO the last sentence of your 11:48 post would have been the funniest thing I’ve read in a long time.
As it is, however, it’s only the second funniest thing I’ve read today.
Can we all agree to make that the standard response to any @lph!3 proclamation?
It was an atomic wedgie. He was never the same again….
“Going it alone.” The new cardinal sin in international politics.
My question is what other contry has a military capable of projecting force anywhere in the globe? We’ve been going it alone, in that sense, since the cold war ended. Sure other people can commit people to help fight and forces to augment the US capabilites but over all we have become the spine of the rest of the worlds force. They know it and they resent it but when bad things happen, be it man made or natural disaster, they still call us first.
Gray–
To tell the truth, though, he was never the same before. NTTAWWT.
Sanctions and strongly worded letters is about all the arrows a lot of countries have left in their quiver.
Yeah, Dan, I felt terrible even acknowledging the little guy’s existance, but the inference that the US is not being provoked was too much for me to let go. “MUST say no to drugs and *lph**” Well, maybe not drugs so much…
Unless it involves North Korea. Nuance, Rob. Nuance.
TW: theory45. In theory, my .45 would solve a lot of problems.
Everyone knows that everyone should now hate Cowboys, don’t che’ know, unless of course they herd sheep or Cubans, or are called to negotiate alone with NoKo or Iran.
Or global warming… Yeah, nuance it is.
A-bot shows all of the concerns of an adolescent,to do what is popular rather than what is right.
At first, I thought aphids screed was off base.
I wouldn’t want to be the one breaking it to all those Chinese factory workers that we’ve decided we’re not going to trade with the evil Americans, and they’re all unemployed.
Then I realized, he has a plan. They’ll sell all that WalMart stuff to Iran, and North Korea, and Darfur, and Somalia, and Bosnia. On credit, of course, because they are the downtrodden masses and are good for it.
Then I woke up.
They hope their family gets into heaven by killing your family, Wes. Good luck with building a relationship on that.
Yea fuckstick, because OPEC isn’t going to sell oil to anyone, lest we become the beneficiary (google “fungible”, asshat), and will sit on their reserves, just out of principle.
Cause that’s the kind of people they are.
Do you have to try to post monumentally stupid things, or is it just a gift?
Well,
Not all cowboys are alike.
There are smart cowboys and dumb cowboys.
Bombing Iran now is a dumb cowboy move.
I don’t think we’ve even refilled our strategic oil reserves since Katrina hit.
Gawdammit boy, how many times you gotta get your ass kicked before you realize you’re not Bruce Lee?
While a***ie spews forth utter inanaties (pray tell, who is China going to sell all of the crap that they make to?) there is an interesting post at MEMRI that would seem to indicate that Iran, for all of its posturing, has some serious economic issues of its own. (and yes, a-bot, MEMRI, tool of the Mossad, blah, blah, blah.)
Th idea of economic and political conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia makes sense to me, as well as Iran’s desire for some level of chaos in the ME.
It’s a tough decision but doesn’t necessarily have to involve massive boots on the ground or something ineffective.
And a-bot, it doesn’t matter what anybody here writes. You will continue to post goofy non sequiturs all the while wringing your hands that the absolute horror of it all.
Yeesh! Grow a set.
alphie, the way the SPR was used in Katrina was in the form of loaned crude to refineries who are liable for replacing the loaned oil –
I think we should put some bad-ass Delta Force Ninja motherfuckers in some shipping containers marked “Top Secret Nuclear Stuff” and send them over there to Iran. When they open them up down in them bunkers, boy won’t they be surprised!
So alfie, who is OPEC going to sell their oil to if they cut off the US?
B Moe:
Great idea! We can actually ship an entire armored battalian along with the ninja dudes to secure the site. Then use another shipping container to bring in an engineering battalian to build around the sites…
wait for it…
MILE HIGH DIRT BERMSâ„¢!
You and I should rule the world…
China just built some rather large strategic oil reserve holes of their own that they’re lookin’ to fill, TomB.
All they have to do is take the money they’d be lending to us to cover our war debt and give it to Iran and Hugo and…there ya go.
We’re broke and have no oil and nobody’s fired a shot.
Think this time, cakewalk boys.
Bad move.
Very bad move.
And what are the capacity of those “holes”, alfie?
What happens after they are filled?
If China isn’t trading with us, where will they get the money to pay for all this oil?
Huh? Care to explain that. Cause I have NO IDEA what the hell you are talking about.
China’s trade with us is a rather small part of their economy, TomB, 1-2% at most.
We need them far more than they need us.
Still, America getting labeled a terrorist nation by the civilized world and being subjected to economic sanctions would be a fitting end to Bush’s reign as The Decider.
You missed the rest of my questions alfie.
Totally inadvertantly, I’m sure.
It really is fantastic that in alphie’s world the US is the most impotent nation. We can do nothing because we are powerless.
You need to mix up your biscuit to blue ribbon ratio buddy, as no one can sustain the levels you are running on for very long.
You’re an idiot, alfie:
What happens when all the US companies with factories in China leave?
BWHAHAAAHAAA!!! Leaving aside the sheer lunacy of your wet dream of the US being labelled a “terrorist nation”, since when does being labelled a “terorist nation” mean anything? Seems to me Saddam did quite a business with Germany, France, Russia, the UN, et.al. while being and evil “terrorist nation”.
Yeah, alpee, you’d like that.
He just can’t stand the idea that some people are decisive and courageous–’cuz he isn’t.
alpee is a wounded little person who’s wounds color his intensely personal political views.
Come on alfie, how big’s dem holes?!
(we now pause as alfie totally ignores the thread until the proper non-sequitur pops up)
I have to ask again—is ANYONE really alphie-stupid? It’s gotta be an act, right? No one could be so ignorant of history, economics, and basic logic, right?
Forget about Alphie. It’s time to get serious. Send in Joe Wilson.
I don’t know Robert. Alfie seems to be militantly stupid. So clueless that he is completely sure of his beliefs, and so ill-informed as to not know how wrong those beliefs really are.
I was debating the war on another site when someone tried to prove his point by quoting a poll stating the majority of people thought we should be out of Iraq (or something like that), I responded with a poll that said the majority of Americans believed Noah’s Ark story was literally true. The point being, of course, that polls are essentially garbage.
He immediately launched into me, calling me a asshole for making up poll results. I merely responded with a link to the ABC (Newsweek?) poll. I then asked him how wrapped up in his own worldview he was that he could dismiss out of hand a poll he had never seen and didn’t even bother to look up. He just knew it wasn’t true.
That is militant ignorance. And that is what alfie does every time he makes up facts, like the “big chinese oil holes” or the “mile high dirt berm” or the “balloon fence”, and on and on.
Have you listened to Jimmy Carter lately?
Still, alphie–you could cure most of the realy sloppy stuff with a Google or two. Yes, we drew down the SPR by 400 million barrels and haven’t refilled it. Everyone remembers that. Especially the oil markets.
(That was sarcasm, alphie.)
Dude, go check out the commenters at TBogg, SadlyNo, Pandagon, or most other moonbat blogs- alphie is a friggin genius compared to most of them.
Much like saying alfie’s the prettiest fat girl at the dance…
Seems a mix of the directness of actus, the clarity of PIATOR and the seriousness of monkyboy…
More like the best singer at a school for the deaf.
alphie could be the tallest midget.
In a kingdom of the blind, the blind and deaf man is king.