Almost 2 millenia after Mt. Vesuvius last blew its top, destroying Pompei, Italians living in the vicinity of the volcano still have not come up with a viable escape plan should the volcano threaten to blow again.
Within 20km (12 miles) of its crater live almost three million people – and every one of them, say the geologists, is at risk.
Their evidence comes from research, now completed, which shows that 4,000 years ago Vesuvius erupted with such ferocity that huge areas of land around the volcano were uninhabitable for decades.
Geologists say the evidence that has been uncovered since 2001 should have encouraged Italian authorities to change the evacuation plan they are rehearsing.
But vulcanologist Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo from the Vesuvius Observatory says civil emergency planners are still ignoring the worst-case scenario.
Pliny the Elder died attempting to document the eruption from a ship in the harbor, thus giving the name of the Plinian eruption to that event in 79 AD. Strangely, the BBC reporter wraps up by saying:
When this next explosive, Plinian eruption comes – as one day it will – this will not just be Campania and Italy’s problem, it will be Europe’s as well.
There will be three million refugees. It will change climates and weather patterns across the continent.
Well, if there’s a major eruption, all of that will likely happen, but it won’t be Plinian, unless there’s a Pliny the Really, Really, Really Younger that I don’t know about. Oh, and it will be Bush’s fault.
Correction: Ric Locke, in the comments below, indicates that a Plinian eruption can occur in the absence of a Pliny, just as a Wisconsonian Ice Age can occur in the absence of a Wisconsin.
Challenge: Ex-Polish bishop denies concealing past. I maintain that he’s still Polish, though Ric may prove me wrong.
Small potatoes: From commenter Isaac:
Interesting, but this will be small potatoes when compared with the Magnetic Field Reversal which will take place in 2012 and kill billions of people.
So, don’t listen to any of this overpopulation malarky.
Just the thing to offset teh evil global warming monster.
Actually, a Plinian eruption is a violent, noisy type with smoke, ash, soot and all kinds of crap being propelled miles straight up. Like Pliny recorded in 79 AD.
That’s different from, say, Mount St. Helen’s blasts, or the mainly lavic eruptions in Hawai’i.
Cordially…
Oh. Nevermind.
Interesting, but this will be small potatoes when compared with the Magnetic Field Reversal which will take place in 2012 and kill billions of people.
I’m not worried. I’m stockpiling magnets.
Personally, I’m relying on my magnetic personality.
Er, Dan, I didn’t write that comment. Rick did. Credit where credit is due.
(Sprightly, with rollicking cheerfulness
They’re rioting in Africa
(dum dum te dum te dum dum)
There’s strife in Iran
What nature cannot do to us
(dum dum te dum te dum dum)
Will be done by our fellow man…
Mutis mutandis.
Regards,
Ric
Whereupon the real estate bubble will finally collapse.
The Italians are facing a lava quagmire!
JayC—when the Earth’s magnetic field reverses, those magnets will rotate wildly about your home, cutting through everything in their path. Al Gore says so.
The fact is Vesuvius had a substantial eruption in 1946, creating tens of thousands of refugees.
The Italian government now offers to buy up land, farms and homes in the danger zone, but the bloody-minded Italians don’t wish to sell.
It will erupt again, there will be huge casualties and it will be their own fault.
Harry, oh no it won’t!!! It will be George Bush or Dick Cheney or Halliburton…um…Kyoto now!
And that’s going to screw up all of my charts. I bet its being brought about by NOAA just so they can sell everyone new charts, the bastiches.
What’s the exact date and time in 2012? I wouldn’t want to be wearing headphones when the magnets turn on us.
This stuff’s no different than the Nukewar problem in the Kashmir.
Long as the supply of basmati rice doesn’t get interrupted in the former or the shipment of Parmigiano Reggiano in this case, I’m not sweating it.
Last but not least, being one of those govt national lab geeks, my magnet’s bigger than yours. Lots bigger.
“That’s great, it starts with an earthquake…”
Oh great! Is the world ending AGAIN?
I was planning a trip to Italy, but I think the Pliny-Juniors will appreciate me sticking around to pay their college tuition.
2000 years for this? And people think they’re born into weird families…
I feel fine.
If the magnetic poles reverse, there has to be some period of time when the magnetic density drops to the point where it no longer protects us from cosmic radiation. The tinfoil hat people will probably laugh their asses off at us.
Naw, they’ll be cooked too seeing as they don’t graps the idea of shielding against high-energy particles.
But they’ll stay warm longer afterwards.