From the Jerusalem Post:
The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1701 Friday evening, calling for the cessation of hostilities between Hizbullah and Israel.
The resolution authorizes the deployment of 15,000 UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon to support a Lebanese force as it takes control of the region and Israel withdraws.
The UN force is to monitor the cease-fire and help Lebanese forces gain control over an area that has previously been under the de facto authority of Hizbullah. The resolution calls for the need for the “unconditional release” of the two IDF soldiers captured July 12, but does not make a direct demand for their freedom.
Additionally, it calls on Israel and Lebanon to agree to a long-term solution under which Hizbullah would be disarmed.
The text of the resolution does not specify under which chapter of the UN Charter the force would be authorized. Instead, it says the force’s mandate includes several elements: monitoring the cessation of hostilities, accompanying Lebanese troops as they deploy and as Israel withdraws, and ensuring humanitarian access.
The UN force, known by its acronym UNIFIL, will help coordinate the deployment of Lebanese forces to the south.
[my emphases]
UNIFIL, of course, is the same “force” that has been keeping Hezbollah in check in southern Lebanon all these years. Which is to say, it is a non-entity—save for the cover it provides Hizbullah.
This is, not to put too fine a point on it, a surrender. As NRO’s Andrew McCarthy notes:
Hezbollah wins this big just by being legitmized. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, not a country. The resolution we are signing on to, however, addresses it as if it were a country. The resolution doesn’t purport to direct any UN member nation to make Hezbollah cease firing  least of all Lebanon, the purported sovereign of this territory. Instead, it appeals to Hezbollah directly  in the same paragraph in which it addresses Israel, as if there were no difference in status between the two  and “calls on” it to stand down.
How do we sign onto that? Didn’t we just say about 24 hours ago that we are dealing with “Islamo-fascists” who cannot be reasoned with? Yet, recognizing that no one is willing to fight them, we are joining the “international community” in calling on Hezbollah terrorists to stand down?
Even up to a few days ago—as Israel staged on the border for what looked like it could be a push up to the Litani River—I held out hope that the international community had finally come to understand the Islamist terrorist threat.
But now it’s clear that all they understand is how to paper over problems and pat itself on the back for doing so.
Israel and the US have been defeated. Hizballah will grow emboldened. As will Iran. And Syria—both of which stood down western forces by waiting for the “international community,” who represents of late nothing so much as reliable appeaseniks, to step in and lend its imprimatur (by way of the UN) to the forces of ever-encroaching Islamic fascism, now granted legitimacy by the mere fact of their having been recognized.
Another step toward the death of sovereignty and the advent of transnationalism—just as was the ruling that granted terrorists de facto Geneva protections.
As an emailer wrote me last evening:
A ceasefire without decisively defeating Hezzbollah is the worst possible move that Israel and the west could have possibly made.
What this reminds me of is Germany’s occupation of the Rhineland in 1936. The French and British could have defeated the Nazis effortlessly and toppled the Nazi regieme at the time, but in their fecklessness decided to let it stand. As a result Hitler not only survived, but was emboldened. We all know the rest of the story.
Fast forward to 2006 and we have today’s crop of short sided politicians making the worst of all possible choices and I suspect basically passing the buck, they ferverently hope, onto the next guy’s watch. Why? Hell if I know.
[…]
What in my humble opinion, this ceasefire does is insures that other far more costly battles will be fought in the future. Far more lives will be lost. The GWOT will go on for longer than it might have. All because the politicians lost their nerve at the critical hour.
I don’t claim any special super-secret knowledge, but I’ll bet the one thing that you can count on is that sooner or later, we, meaning the west, will have to face down and totally defeat islamofascism. We can do it sooner, at less cost in blood and treasure or we can wait until the barbarians are more powerful, the cost in lives far greater with additional serious damage to the west. This is our Rhineland and the US, EU and Israel just gave it away.
It could be that there is some other less obvious end game that the US and Israel are attempting here, but at present, I don’t see it.
Which of course doesn’t mean it isn’t there. But I have my doubts. Looks like Ralph Peters was right and I was wrong. Which will cause the international left to rejoice—the UN’s legitimacy remains unquestioned as a moral authority, even after their perfidy has been widely exposed—and make ascendent the will to power as the benchmark in international “law,” meaning that classical liberal idealism as a foundational principle drawing on natural law has been reduced to a merely competitory trope in the arena of philosophical and political principles, where it must now do battle with an equally legitimized grievance group fascism that has embraced the tactics of marterialism in the service of a strict fundamentalism that in no way, should it win out, will allow for the kind of cultural relativism that allows it the oxygen to even exist.
More’s the pity that we have been unable to either get this point across to the “international community,” or else decided to tell that community to sod off and find the will to defeat this threat to civilization once and for all by grinding it into dust.
For more thoughts, see Allah, Rick Moran, and Phares (h/t Michelle Malkin). See also, Captain’s Quarters, who is far more sanguine about this than I am (though that isn’t particularly difficult at this point). See also, Ace, who thinks the move a wise one on Israel’s part.
And of course, LGF and its readers will no doubt have much to say on the matter.
*****
related: Via Ace, a former AP TV reporter explains to LGF why the AP is so biased against Israel.
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update: Interesting bit in the comments from Karl, who maybe points out the end game I wasn’t seeing clearly earlier—or at least, having seen it, I wasn’t convinced it’d be effective. Which is my own fault for assuming Nasrallah was a rational strategist:
At the moment, the good news is that Craig C appears to be right, as Nasrallah said Saturday that Hezbollah will continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in south Lebanon. The UN resolution allows Israel to respond. So the US satisfies its critics by going with the UN resolution, whichâ€â€surprise surpriseâ€â€changes nothing.
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, said on Sunday that once there was a resolution in place, it would be clear who was interested in peace and who was not. The assumption behind her words was that Israel would obey the ceasefire call and Hizbullah might not.
So far, it seems like her gamble will pay off.
We can hope.
This was Bush’s tack with the run-up to Iraq, as well—which gave him some international cover, but ultimately (as we’ve seen) that cover evaporated as the delay to jump through UN hoops for perceptual purposes probably allowed Hussein to hide or dismantle his weapons programs and move some of his WMD components and/or stockpiles (if he ever bothered “stockpiling” in the first place rather than keeping the capabilities for production close at hand and in a state of readiness).
Here, it looks as if Nasrallah will not be smart enough to take advantage of the ceasefire to allow Iran to re-arm Hizballah forces and sneak in additional fighters.
So the question becomes—for me—how will this play to perceptions? That is to say, will the Muslim world recognize this as a successful strategic gambit won by Israel and the US—who will have at least some cover with the international community who brokered the deal? Or will the UN and the useful idiots in the international press manage to bully Israel into further concessions by insisting on yet another cease fire—which will be seen by the Muslim world as a resounding victory for Iran / Syria and Hizballah?
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update 2: see further thoughts here. As is often the case in this medium, initial readings of the situation change as one is able to process more information and as the machinations and decisions of the involved actors begin to clarify.
There are, it seems to me, several ways to read this situation and the diplomatic dance being carried out. If Bushco and Israel accepted the terms of the cease fire knowing that Hizballah would not abide it, then they will HAVE to—however reluctantly—be given international cover by the UN, because the UN received everything IT wanted.
And so Kofi and crew would be in no position to demand anything else of the Israelis without it becoming obvious that a country who was attacked is being forced, by the international community, to literally lose ground for having been the victim of a cross border incident.
Not even the UN can justify that. And who knows? Maybe the UN is providing itself cover, knowing (as perhaps the Israelis and the US did, if one buys this particular “bluff-calling” interpretation of events) that Hizballah would not disarm, would continue fighting, and that one way to take care of the growing threats coming out of Iran is to completely isolate them by giving Israel room to destroy Hizzballah and engage Syria to effect the fall of Assad’s Baathists.
The situation is quite difficult to read. And it really depends on the faith one has in Olmert’s commitment.
As Terrye said over on YARGB, Michelle wouldn’t have been happy with any deal that didn’t include mushrooms over Tehran. But Captain Ed has a good non-Eeyore view of the agreement.
Did you update that? I swear to God I didn’t see a link to the Captain (I always hear the Captain Kangaroo theme when I type that) when I started my comment.
Charlie —
I think it’s ridiculous to say that about Malkin, personally. You can appear reasonable without cartooning someone to your right.
As for the non-Eyore response, so what? So Nasrallah didn’t get his prisoner swap.
As Allah notes in response to Ed’s post:
Listen: pragmatism at this point works to the advantage of the terrorists, who are relying on our desire to avoid conflict and their relentless desire for it. So whenever they need a break, they simply get the “international community” to do their bidding and clamp down on their enemies.
But the stakes are getting higher each time they are allowed to successfully pull this off—unprovoked attacks followed by a “time out.”
This entire move on Hizballah / Syria / Iran’s part was to play chicken with the west for the hearts and minds of the middle east. Are we serious about using force or not? Who should the autocrats stand behind?
The west flinched—though I hold onto a glimmer of hope that should Hizballah violate the ceasefire (and by “should” I mean “when”), Israel will claim it has a mandate to finish the job, and that the US will stand behind it completely, pointing to the violation of the cease fire.
But by then, who knows what will have happened? August 22 is fast approaching…
Again, it’s possible there’s an end game here I’m not seeing. But if ever Israel had the opportunity to push Hizballah back beyond the Litani, this was it.
-Lord Grey of Fallodon 1862-1933
Liberal politician
on the eve of the First World War
Haha, I came here to post a link to the captain as well. I must have just skimmed that last part.
I don’t know who’s correct, but I suspect the agreement is based more on hope that the UN force, given a bit more teeth this time around, will be enough to keep Hezballah occupied (no pun intended). Based on history, I think that’s a bit foolish, but whatever the case, Israel has given itself yet one more brochure to show the world on how they restrained themselves and worked with the international community. The problem is the rest of the world is basically dishonest and doesn’t care. If backing Israel is not in the national interests of France, for example, France will do whatever it damn well pleases.
While reading your article before, I was nodding in agreement when you were creating the parallell to the threat posed by Nazi Germany, but also beginning to wonder about the differences. Things have changed so much since then. We were fighting an ideology in WW2 that had, as its banner, a massive army. Defeat that army and the ideology was naked. There is no single army for us to defeat now. It is an ideology that willfully spreads among the populations of many nations and infects many others. Its banner is not an army but Islam itself. I actually think that the problem now isn’t political cowardice, but a lot of people at the top genuinely not having a clue about how to combat this threat short of nuclear genocide, which thankfully is not an option. It’s possible that if Iran and Syria topple so does Islamic extremism over time, but I think the underlying threat is more fluid than that. This is just not an enemy we have the correct gear to face.
Good luck. That was the whole point behind the withdrawal from Gaza, i.e. Israel standing behind non-occupational defensible borders. Now here we have Israel and the West suffering from a complete lack of nerve where it really matters.
Explain to me, though, how you keep the Hizzie gangstas away from your house, let alone even chasing you into your kitchen, when they are financed with $150 million a year by sugah daddies and then insist on dominating the hood during the times between fighting?
Just practically saying.
War doesn’t solve anything. Unless! It creates a stable community of plumbers, electricians, doctors, farmers, etc. after the fighting is over.
Humbly I maintain that this was the problem in Viet Nam. Kennedy and Johnson assumed that nation building could start from the top and work down.
There was no understanding of how the French and corruption in leadership had ripped the culture of Viet Nam into bits and left it broken beyond repair.
I cannot be too disheartened by this.
Israel is seen, once again, very willing to co-operate; and the Hezbollocks will violate the terms before the signatures are dry.
Israel, its position strengthened in the meantime, will take the opportunity offered. With vigour.
For the what, 57th time? To what end?
Kick the can down the road.
Pay now or pay later; hell will be paid.
UNIFIL…I thought that was the stuffing they use in teddy bears. Does that explain all the toy photos we’re getting from Lebanon?
TW: I give the resolution less than a month before it all goes to hell.
What’s so utterly baffling to me is why Olmert is allowing his nation to put faith into the very UN group that for the past 28 years proved themselved unaffective at their job. I heard Condi Rice say that this revived UNIFIL force would have teeth, but that is not stipulated anywhere in the agreement. So where exactly do these “teeth” come from? France?
I feel like knocking my head agaisnt the wall that these national leaders are putting their trust into an organization that has a horrific track record at the very thing they are mandating them to do.
Insanity, pure and simple.
And cowardice, too.
TW: UNIFIL didn’t fulfill their job the first time. Why would anyone think they’ll follow through this time?
Deep Breath all…
Hezbollah won’t comply. Very simple, they won’t leave, nor disarm. If the 15,000 Blue Helmets include anyone that will actually try to enforce the mandate (admittedly, a thin chance) – then they will get into it with the Hez.
This is just round one ending. I’d rather the Israelis keep going, but this will get finished with the Hez getting it in the shorts – it will just take the Lebanese deciding that they don’t want them there anymore.
Major John, is that last thought a given? Surely, there’s a significant proportion of Lebanese that want them out, but there’s a significant portion that don’t.
What are the realistic odds of the anti-Jihadis prevailing? I’m afraid they might not be as good as we’d like.
I guess I wan’t clear enough – I think this is aimed more at the Lebanese than putting faith in Blue Helmets, Kofi and France.
The Hez can strut, wave AKs and proclaim victory – while the Lebanese see absolutely no benefit to their continued presence. If the Lebanese Army gets put into the south and the Hez come and and try to re-establish – that is where the shite will hit the fan. That is where even the die-hard Hez fans/Israel bashers would have the last justifications removed.
Round one ends, Round two to come…
Yeah, if we know anything, we know that muslims are incapable of controlling their hatred of the infidel, and that the principle of hudna is an integral part of any conflict involving them. They’re not smart enough to abide by the resolution for longer than their attention span will allow them. In other words, about a minute and a half. When that happens, the Israelis, who are already in place, will go in and crush them.
What if?
What if Regis has a plan?
What if the US signs on to the force with a reinforced armored brigade from Germany? Or a Marine brigade?
What if over the next coupla months under the guise of the UN mandate we fill the gap?
What if all of a sudden, Syria has Merican armor on two sides beacause Damascus couldn’r rein his pooches in?
What if this is OUR pause to re-arm? And range the guns?
Just sayin’
Listen friends, we’ve just come within a gnat’s eyelash of losing a couple of dozen airliners and a few thousand women, children, and insurance adjusters to these pricks.
Do you think we’ve lost sight of the big picture?
Not me.
I think in a couple of months you’ll be looking at a new chessboard.
And, of course, Condi in her boots and all.
UN: OK, so here’s the deal, and I think you’re going to love it. Those guys that have been attacking you? We’re going to let them get away with it. Then, we’re going to give them a few more years to regroup and entrench, courtesy of those other guys, who have promised to wipe you off the map (and who, by the way, are not parties to this deal). Plus, just to sweeten things, we’re going to add 15,000 sitting ducks into the situation, who have a terrible record of getting killed. Sound good?
Olmert: Sure, mister, sounds like a great deal to me!
?????????
The Lebanese army will be co-opted by Hezbollah. The army has already been infiltrated and is riddled with Israel hating folks now. UNIFIL will be co-opted even further than it is now.
The only hope I have is that Hezbollah becomes drunk on their success and acts out in a way that allows Israel to take off the gloves.
tw: *peace* will be elusive
The Lebanese army will compete with UNIFIL in turning a blind eye to the Hezzies activities.
Last I heard, the US was not going to send boots.
I am curious who will.
Who will occupy the next Marine Barracks circa 1983?
Will France be seen to support the Hegemonic Crusade of the West if it comes to shooting?
Which Eurostanian nation will put themselves in that position?
The triumph of hope over reason.
Give it 4 weeks, tops.
Israel already knows Hez will “re-establish” in the sub-Litani area if given the opportunity.
The cease-fire does not demand Israel to withdraw from the sub-Litani. It does leave the door open for further self-defense. It does say that Hez must disarm.
The critical point is whether the Lebanon can free itself from the money and brutality of Syrian and Iranian brought in by Hezbollah.
Wish it would, but not going to happen soon.
Let not your hearts be troubled.
Captain Ed and Big Lizards can argue the nuts & bolts, the clauses and disclaimers of this agreement all they want. Public perception is what matters, and public perception (especially in the Muslim world) will be that Hizbullah has won a tremendous victory and handed the “Zionist Entity” another humiliating defeat. When Hizbullah violates the ceasefire and Israel responds, the Israelis will be the target of even greater international condemnation.
Sorry to hear it.
Don’t like my opinion? That’s a shame.
Nasrallah has accepted the ceasefire and vowed to ignore it.
At the moment, the good news is that Craig C appears to be right, as Nasrallah said Saturday that Hezbollah will continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in south Lebanon. The UN resolution allows Israel to respond. So the US satisfies its critics by going with the UN resolution, which—surprise surprise—changes nothing.
From last weekend:
So far, it seems like her gamble will pay off.
He probably doesn’t care for your (and Terrye’s) strawman argument.
TW: I don’t much either.
Sorry, Charlie.
I think saying Malkin won’t be satisfied until Iran is consumed in nuclear fire is a bit much.
Am I not allowed to express my disagreement with your opinion without your taking umbrage?
Then the Israelis might as well hang it up, because they’re never going to win in public perception.
It’s lucky, therefore, that public perception doesn’t matter as much as control of the battlespace and logistics. As soon as an agreement looked likely, Israel trebled their forces (or admitted to treble the forces, hard to tell at this range) north of the border.
– if any resupply happens, the agreement is violated and Israel can strike again.
– if HB shoots rockets (what’s the over/under on how long it takes for that to happen after the end of active hostilities?), the agreement is violated.
– the agreement doesn’t even take effect until they come up with 15000 UNIFIL troops, and they haven’t even started to figure out how to do that.
… and in the mean time, Israel is now smacking things about quite agressively, while able to say “we’ll stand down as soon as the UN keeps its promise.”
This is what I don’t like about the Eeyore Caucus: they assume that everyone is an idiot except themselves.
Try it the other way: what would this mean if it were working the way it was planned?
Students of history?
No, it means they should give up negotiating with terrorist organizations devoted to their destruction.
Should the US be negotiating a ceasefire agreement with Al-Qaeda?
I think we’re looking at this all wrong. This move effectively topples the Olmert government, which, I believe, was the precise point.
My LGF comment:
In quick passing, would like to highlight this Faulknerian sentence from original post:
1. UN is coming out of this with a free pass once again.
2. Recognize a grievance group only by or for its terrorist abilities and wear the “kick-me” sign; especially the Europeans.
I don’t. Oh, maybe it doesn’t require nuclear bombs … I think she’d settle for massive air and ground attacks with conventional weapons.
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
I realize you’re not used to less vehement disagreement, but what I said was that I was sorry to hear that you disagreed. The umbrage would seem to lie elsewhere.
If this cease fire goes into effect after this weekend, and that’s a big IF, Hezbollah will stand amid the rubble and claim victory. It’s their m.o.
But Jeff is on to the whole point of this diplomatic effort:
It’s the “world community” getting its chance to speak, and we know how effective this community is at real peace.
Hezbollah cannot be counted on to go on the wagon militarily, which is what’s being asked of them at the moment. Yes, they are being treated as a sovereign, but if they want to be treated as a state, they now have a chance to behave like one.
Hezbollah and its enablers Syria and Iran have to operate by different rules if they want to be part of the civilized world. Now, they have a chance. Let’s see what they do with it.
That goddamn fish.
Then you should have said that, instead of “public perception is what matters”, shouldn’t you?
Related story about perceptions in Israeli politics. Netanyahu may become the new fair-haired boy.
If I misread the tone, I apologize.
But from the tone I attributed you, umbrage was the right word—at least at the time.
You’ll just have to trust that I’m familiar with the word and its meaning, I guess.
Fish!
I think it’s a question of making Hez an offer they have to refuse while, in the meantime, molding Israel into shape for the trouble to come. I may be wrong, but this could go down in history as a brilliant diplomatic coup. After all, Regis is running the show, right?
And we’re all friends here.
I do not believe this to be anywhere on their agenda. There is nothing in their actions to indicate that they have any desire to be civilized outside of the guidelines of the prophet Mo (Bees Pee Upon Him)
TW: nuclear. As in Nooklar Terrists.
Now at high speed…
Public perception?: Smarter than that.
Olmert gone?: Eh? For stopping rocket fire from the neighbor’s backyard and demanding the return of hostages?
Hezbollah doing good things: Waaaaaaaaaahat?
Nuke Iran?: Now that is dumber than a bucket of wet hair.
This is truly a first, IMO. It’s a war that has only one valid exit: The rebuilding of the democratic community of southern Lebanon.
No guesses here on how this one is going to play out.
….darn it, work
Thanks for the link, Spiny. (I’d love to know how you came up with that cofgnomen sometime — I feel so prosaic.) Let’s look at the lede:
HB will “abide by the … cease-fire” but would “continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in Southern Lebanon.”
No surprise there: we all saw that coming.
It’s a shame that Bolton, and Rice, and the Israelis, are such fools they couldn’t see what we bloggers watching the news can see so easily.
I hope you are right, ahem. But with the Iranian presence in southern Iraq coming to the boiling point (see Iraqthemodel) as well, who can deny that right now Iran is fighting and winning the long war?
By the time the Israeli political process finds a warrior, it will be too late. Iran will push into Beirut and Basrah, and it will take a ruthless president and allies to oust them. Our current president is reading French existentialists on his vacation.
Then save it for when someone says something harsher than “I’m sorry”.
That, by the way, was umbrage.
I’d have to disagree with you, charlie. I think they can see it just fine.
Patricia: If I’m able to parse my reading of history right, these are only the opening moves. There are a lot of battles in a war. It ain’t over by any means.
Jeff, we’ve got to get something done about an irony font on this thing.
Do we have any indication how effective this war has been for Israel? It’s hard to tell from the news, with their bias so apparent, but the missiles never stopped coming at Israel. This seems to me like a less than hoped for outcome.
I think the cease-fire is a win for Hezbullah. I also think that this can’t be repeated. One lesson that must be learned from this is that Israel cannot just fight these little battles against the puppets of Hamas and Heabullah, because their masters are the real problem.
If Iran and Syria were weakened to the point that they are no longer able to provide material support and encouragement to their proxies, then Israel would have a better chance at finishing the endless fighting that has become their existence.
Of course, given the absolute unwillingness of the international community to do anything about it, it seems that there can be no hope for the Israelis.
Major John:
Is this agreement just another in the series of developments that contributes to the Islamic world’s impression that they (the Persians) are winning WW IV? I cannot remember the author of the article at NRO about this issue to which you reacted very strongly , but, again, is this just another example of what she was writing about?
Got this quote from LGF:
Thank god someone from France finally…gets it. The man is downright Churchillian.
Also at Hot Air there’s a link to these guys who claim to be informed that Hezballah sustained extreme damage and no longer have the vast sums of resources to purchase local loyalty.
Hey, it’s pretty orthogonal to the topic, but does anyone have any idea why green is a significant color to Islam?
Craig C said,
Craig, I have to disagree with you here. I think that they Arabs in the region are more disciplined and take a much longer view than we do in the west. For instance, after loosing four consecutive wars in 48, 56,67 and 73, the focus shifted from conventional attacks by national entities to asymmetrical attacks by non-state players who were harder to pin down and defeat. That has further evolved from nationalist – pan Arabist liberation movements to theocratic islamist movements, which further cloud the waters when trying to discern who the culpable parties are. It also tugs at the loyalties of a far larger population pool. Add to that the patient buying of influence on our campuses, in the media and with our governments and it adds up to a patient and directed effort to win in the long term.
It is not the islamo-fascists who are afraid of casualties, it’s the west. The islamo-fascists have shown their willingness to fight and die, they have shown their ruthlessness by allowing civilians to die for them as human shields in order to score propaganda points in the media.
While Olmert may have the right to retaliate in the future should Hezzbollah attack, it will cost even more lives than had Israel fought this battle out to its conclusion now, because you can bet your bottom dollar that as soon as the jets quit flying, major resupply of Hezzbollah begins. And Iran recently promised to send advanced anti-aircraft missile systems to them, so the IAF may not have such easy goings the next time around.
By characterizing the arabs as hot tempered idiots who lack any self-control, you not only sell them short, you sell yourself short as well because underestimating your enemy is and historically has been one of the leading reasons that bigger powers have been defeated by smaller powers. That type of mis-characterization is what every fighting force hopes its adversaries will think.
In the battle of public perceptions, Hezzbollah just won a major battle and as Jeff indicated, has been partially legitimized. Perhaps there will soon be a round two and the job will be finished, who knows. All I know is that the job just became harder, take longer and will cost more lives.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I plan to wander over to the left side of the blogosphere for a while and see if or when the schadenfreude party begins.
It makes sense — they were the ones who wanted a cease-fire. I’ve thought all along that if they were taking as little damage as they claimed, a cease fire would be the last thing they wanted.
But why are the US and Israel even considering this cease fire, if they want to destroy Hezbollah eventually? Do it now! They are reversing Machiavelli’s maxim to give the people bad news all at once and good news bit by bit.
The only answer can be is that Israel is losing, so they are giving up.
I’d think of them less as that than as proud to the degree they wouldn’t want to be perceived as losing. I think it’s very hard for them to back down in public. It’s about saving face.
Of course, I could be wrong.
Forget what Hez and the Islamists will claim about the “cease-fire” that hasn’t/won’t happen. They are like the Black Knight from Monty Python declaring It’s only a flesh wound! as arms and legs are lopped off.
Until the UN itself is defeated by internal rot, it is a reality we have to deal with, and this “cease fire” agreement allows Israel enough room to stay and finish the job since the HezNazis aren’t stopping their fighting. Six years worth of Iranian arms build up take a while to exhaust, and so far Israel has been able to absorb the rockets with minimal, albeit tragic, results.
Israel is the world’s Jew. They know it, they usually react to “world opinion” in the proper manner … that it is worthless.
Bush has been steadfast in holding the HezNazis responsible for this latest round of attempted Jewkilling. He has strategically delayed any US “pressure” on Israel to stand down (which has brought out the anti-semites in Left for all to see and note.. including jawdropping statements from Dean and Kerry)
And Israel has reached the Litani river. I don’t believe that the IDF is not going to fireback at HezNazi’s in So. Lebanon when they shoot, so Israel’s is in position to continue the cleanup while the UN attempts to assemble an “international” peace keeping force.
Right now I’m hoping for military coup in Israel and the use of its nuclear arsenal to vaporize all hostile countries in the Middle East.
Otherwise, they’re screwed.
TW. I’ve high hopes.
And here I thought an apology and an explanation might de-escalate the situation.
What don’t you understand about tone, Charlie?
I didn’t particularly care for your tone as I perceived it. I apologized if I perceived it wrong. But the way I perceived it suggested umbrage.
I’m not going to play semantic games all day, however.
Want to take a few additional shots at me? Have at it. I’m going to go to a mall and look at shoes.
BIG ARAB SHOES WILL JEW STOMPIN’ SOLES!
Get with the pogrom, people!
Patricia: Short-sightedness. Fear. Indecisiveness.
Counterterrorism Blog has an interesting post on what’s to come.
Remember, opening shots. Dan Gillerman himself says this is just the coming attractions, the film is gonna be a doozie.
And the US has a starring role.
Tim, I don’t disagree with a thing you said. I just don’t see how it contradicts what I was saying. I wasn’t trying to explicate an over-arching theory, I was just dealing with the reality of this specific set of circumstances on the ground.
To put on my Rummy cap, would I have liked it better if the Israelis had gone in with overwhelming force from the start? Of course.
Do I understand that we in the West tend not to take the long strategic view? Yes.
Do the muslims enjoy an advantage in that area? Indubitably. They’re still pissed off about losing Spain, fer Chrissakes.
Speaking of which, those of you who are always dumping on the French (mostly with good reason, I admit) and don’t know who Charles Martel was, google him, and erect a shrine to him in your Hef-style grottos.
Less than you, I’d say, Jeff.
Weren’t you, just the other day, making fun of the Dick Durbin “I’m sorry if I’ve been misunderstood” apology?
Just for future reference, if I say “I’m sorry you disagree”, I mean “… but I’m not going to get excited about it.”
When I mean “don’t be a fucking idiot” I’ll say “don’t be a fucking idiot.”
So don’t be a fucking idiot, Jeff. If I mean to give the impression I’ve taken umbrage, I promise you, you’ll know immediately.
This is death on the installment plan. The next payment will be a bitch. Nuke the UN.
Exactly. While everyone is whining about “public perception,” Israel just established the military position they wanted, nearly unopposed, after 30 days of unproductive heavy fighting. Since the story seems to change its link periodically, have a look at the lede this time:
Don’t get caught up in the stories you’re telling yourselves: look at what (the best we can tell) is actually happening.
WWIII is gonna be nuts, that’s all I can say. Totally batshit crazy.
tw: we should not have a spirit of fear..
I’m less concerned about the unguided rocket barrages than I am about the anti tank weapons Hezbollah has… and their ability to use them effectively against tanks and infantry outposts.
Politically it seems best to go after the rocket launchers, but actually it’d be better to let the rockets keep flying (they rarely hit anything anyway) while instead concentrating on smashing Hezbollahs foot soldiers.
tw: Israel needs to use it’s *time* wisely
Jeff, you don’t really believe that do you?
I hope a trip to the mall and some shoe shopping improves your perspective!
I hear the second act is much better…
I think she’d settle for the regime being overthrown from within.
But caricatures sure are fun!
– Whatever happens, barring a sudden turn around in the progression of this bullshit, Olmert is out in the next elections. This is exactly the sort of massive Knessa screw up Natentahoo hoped for.
Yes, sigh. All that’s left is the waiting and the praying. My old Catholic background is kicking in: “I will give up espresso if you let Israel win. I will give up espresso and a good Pinot Noir every now and then if you let us win in Iraq AND let Israel win…”
Craig C,
Point taken.
Oh by the way
Hef-style grottos? That had me laughing so hard I almost cried.
Infact I’m rushing out to get my Charles Martel icon today! Plastic, glow in the dark type, I hope. Next I’m heading to Home Depot to get what I need to build my Hef-style grotto and I don’t even know what one looks like! Anybody got any plans?
Snooping around the leftie sites, it looks like the schadenfruede party already started. Here’s some typical bilge from over at the Daily Kos…
This is great. I don’t even remember where I got it, but it was linked somewhere here.
I, too, have been putzing around looking at the opinion on the right. Particularly interesting is this idea from Aristides at The Information Processor.
Also, gerry at the Belmont Club offers this intriguing bit:
Emphases mine.
???
– ahem, the Kenessa leadership looks confused and adrift to the majority of Israeli’s, and the military, right down to the grunts on the line, are mightily pissed at the foot dragging and timid response they’ve seem from Olmert and his gang. I think if the elections were held tomorrow the outcome is no longer in doubt. Thats the crux of the sentiments I’m seeing on the Israeli blogsites anyway.
Perhaps because it’s the color of bile?
What I wonder about is—have the Israelis decided to take a few leaves from Arafat’s playbook?
We’ve had dozens of cease-fires before. The routine is always the same: the Arabs use the time to resupply, rearm, and redeploy. At a time of their choosing, they commence to attack again.
Suppose Israel signs the cease-fire… but troops keep deploying in Lebanon. As so far reported there’s nothing in the agreement to prevent that, and even if there were, what could anybody do about it other than whinge? So, Arab-like, they use the cease-fire as time to deploy across the territory, dig in, establish firebases and resupply points, pre-position ammo and fuel, and generally spread themselves.
And if Hizb’Allah shoots at them, that breaks the cease-fire and they can shoot back. If the Army of God doesn’t shoot at them, they move commandos and spies across the landscape, identifying strong points, equipment depots, shipping nexi, troop-marshalling areas, and the like. When next the balloon goes up—which it will, guaranteed—they’re fully infiltrated, with troops not to far from any likely sites for action.
If the new UNIFIL actually turns out to be effective, the troops can go home, no harm, no foul. If not, well, I suspect a lot of Israeli units have GPS equipment, and there are quite a few “tubes” back in Judea and Samaria.
What a lot of folks, especially lefties (but by no means confined to the moonbats) don’t understand is just how limited blitzkrieg really is. Yes, a 500-lb. bomb has a destruct radius of some tens of meters—call it 50 meters, and sit down to do the math: how many bombs do you need to flatten a hectare, and how many hectares are there? The movies and the media concentrate on the flashbang, and give the impression of total destruction. I think Major John will confirm that the real effects of bombs and explosives are far more limited than is often imagined. They certainly aren’t magic, to eliminate one’s foes in a single bombardment. USN ships and airplanes often spent days “softening up” islands in the Pacific, with thousands of shells and bombs—but the troops making the landings encountered strong resistance anyway. So the “should have gone in major force” bit is a stupid argument. No matter how great the (actually available) force, it’s always lost in the landscape, except for the people it actually runs over.
So I wish people weren’t so disdainful of Olmert. No, he didn’t send in the whole IDF at once. It’s not clear to me that sending everybody who could tote a firearm from the beginning would have made any significant difference.
Regards,
Ric
TW: only. They’re great soldiers, but they’re only soldiers, not Gandalf clones.
Is this really important? As someone else has already noted, thanks to massive hostile bias by the media and Moslem manipulation of same, Israel always loses the “perceptions” game.
The Muslim world will never publically recognize this, or anything else, as “a successful strategic gambit won by Israel and the US.” Any loss, no matter how small, is hateful to the Arab/Muslim mindset, and is never to be acknowledged or spoken of, and they will go to ridiculous lengths in their denial. The character known as Baghdad Bob is not an isolated case.
What counts is not these perceptions, or Nasrallah’s gassy speeches, or pontificating on the floor of the U.N., but rather who is sitting where when the dust clears. And I think Israel will be shown to be in a much better position than the pessimists believe.
Hope?! Shite! We’re tacked to the board.
You’d better hope that little land lobster finds a TASTY burro.
TW: Somebody please sort this out.
Of course it matters.
They can say whatever they want to publicly. But they’ll back the strong horse behind the scenes.
I think someone mistakenly gave you the impression you’re free to talk to me any way you want to.
I’m sorry for that.
Sanguine means hopeful. It can also mean bloody.
A hectare is a square 100 meters on a side. If the destruct radius is 50 meters, then the destruct area is about about 0.79 hectares. Lebanon has an area of 10400 square kilometers, so that is 1040000 hectares, or about one and a third million bombs.
addendum: that works out to about 300 kilotons of TNT.
I’ve uncovered an eye-opening explanation of why the IDF bungled so badly. Olmert eviscerated a careful plan the very first day.
If true, Olmert fucked up big time. Now, apparently, some in the IDF are talking coup, is this article is to be believed.
That is the norm, especially for a militia fighter, according to a paper that a soldier/student wrote recently on the subject. He has spent a good amount of time in Iraq as an interrogator.
Jeff, anything will be seen in the Muslim world as a resounding victory for Hezbollah.
They beat the IDF. A victory (and in reality, too.) They fight to a draw. A victory. Hezbollah is mauled severely. A victory, they survived. Every Hezbollahan is killed and Nasrallah is strapped to a katyusha rocket and launched in the direction of Assad’s summer palace. A victory, for they all achieved martyrdom.
Frankly, I don’t realy care how the middle-eastern muslim world wishes to spin this. It is a culture that seems to be steeped in denial and conspiracy theories to the point that nothing you say, no argument, will change minds.
All we can do is meet our goals and worry about what spin the jihadis wish to put on it much, much later, if ever.
I think you’re wrong, Mikey. I think the Muslim world will always spin it that way, but I think the leaders of certain countries will be cooperative if they believe the US is going to act with resolve.
Pat Santy(along with Victor Davis Hanson) has some interesting thoughts. As usual.
http://drsanity.blogspot.com/
TW:Warning, it’s enough to raise your hair
There’s even an observation that makes me think she reads you, Jeff.
lee: great article. Basically, when you destroy language, you can forge it into any kind of weapon you wish. Jeff will have a field day with it.
Take back the word!
I think I see what Jeff has been saying all these months: the real battlefield of the cultural war in the West is the word. We have to take back the language or be forced into slavery. I realize that may sound slightly melodramatic, but I really don’t give a damn. Great events are afoot. This has gone on long enough.
Ahem,
If that article is right Olmert has been almost criminally negligent in his dutes to his country and to all of civilization. It will be interesting to see how much of it is confirmed.
ahem:
Yes. Along with protein wisdom, dr. sanity is my daily must read.
On a related note Caroline Glick has written an article called “Unmitigated Disaster” in it she claims the US pushed the cease fire becuase of Olmert’s woeful performance. That would seem to confirm what Rich Lowery was saying at The Corner yesterday. Which I guess, is a round about way of saying the White House must realize that it has suffered a defeat as well. It just hasn’t figured out how big it yet. But it’s big. When the guys at Powerline have lost confidence in the Adminstration’s competence in the War on Terror the Administration has officially screwed the entire cast of 101 Dalmations. And if you don’t believe the guys at Powerline have lost confidence in the White House take a look at their site. Take a look over at Hewitt’s, as well. Long story short this is a big victory for Hezbollah and Al Qaeda. As a result Olmert’s government will probably fall. President Bush, for his trouble, may have approval ratings in the twenties next week. And don’t look for the Un or the Media to become less pro-terrorist as a result. This was as bad as this could possibly turn out. And the Hell of it is all they had to do to win was continue the fight. Pretty depressing.
Karl Rove, you magnificent bastard.
Nonsense. I don’t think the guys at Powerline or Hugh realize this has been what’s been going on; otherwise, they wouldn’t be so dismayed with President Bush. I’ve informed them of that article only within the last few minutes.
I stumbled across it at an Israeli site, that of Rabbi Lazer Brody. He used to be a soldier. I checked him out as soon as he ended shabbos. This article shocked the crap out of him, so I’m assuming it’s got to be news to the west. Let’s see.
In any event, those who believe president Bush sold Israel out are sadly mistaken. The UN resolution was obviously Plan B. Apparently the White House is fucking furious with Olmert. There’s talk of a coup.
Not in the White House, of course.
Ahem,
No doubt Olmert is the lead in this keystone caper, but there’s no way the White House can avoid its share of the blame. It negogiated the deal at the UN. Olmert according to ynet called the President personally to thank him for the cease fire.
Could Bush have forced Olmert to act compentently? No. Still he didn’t have to help the UN create cease fire that doesn’t return the Isreali soldiers, doesn’t disarm Hezbollah, and puts the Isreali Lebanon border in control of the self same people that let it go to Hell in the first place. No, the White House didn’t perform well, here. There’s no way around that.
I don’t know how Israel is going to survive this Hezbollah victory – I mean, maybe the IDF can mount one last push to retake Haifa. I am sure there are a few survivors in the smoldering rubble of Tel Aviv too.
I am reminded of the anecdote of the messenger arriving at a British noble’s house and beginning to announce the great victory at Waterloo when the lady of the house shouted for him to stop and ran off. A few moments later she returned with a map. She demanded the messenger show her where the army was before the battle, then where they were after the battle. He did, and she fell to her knees and thanked God. She told him that in her experience, dispatches from the war were not to be lieved as much as looking at a simple map.
Now I am not saying that Israel has “won” because she moved up the map – but people are acting as if Israel might as well march into the sea, for they are simply dead Jews walking.
Hezbollah has already announced they will keep fighting. Fine, they are getting killed, their equipment smashed and their supplies depleted. Territory is being taken away from them too. If you were a Hezbollah commander would you feel safe? Would you be lighting up a victory hookah?
I’ve been under “Katusha” fire before. It ain’t fun, but it ain’t a laser guided 500lbs’er off an F-16 either. Hezbollah fought harder, perhaps, than was expected – but they also made a terrible mistake of staying and fighting. They should have scooted away and hide in Beirut, Sidon, etc.
I think this UN stuff is designed to show the Lebanese that Hezbollah will fight Israel and use Lebanon as the boxing ring – as in “so what’s it going to be, Mr. and Mrs. Lebanese citizen? Hezbollah looking like a friend? They don’t care how many of it go down…”