Last night on Pundit Review radio, Ralph Peters noted that he thought Israel had blundered the campaign against Hezbollah by not immediately sending ground troops into southern Lebanon—that the Israelis have become scared of taking casualties. For my part, when asked about the situation I noted that, while a few of my commenters might agree with Peters’ assessment, most would probably respectfully disagree—their argument being that Israel was carefully shaping the battlefield for a larger effort. Which is the case? Well, the jury is still out, I think—but worth considering is this, from today’s Washington Times:
The fierce Israeli attack in Lebanon is part of a carefully orchestrated plan  not yet half-completed  that calls for four stages of mounting intensity, culminating in the movement of ground troops into Lebanon, according to Israeli reports.
I noted last night that rumors of a 72 hour ultimatum suggested (to me, at least) that Israel was preparing for a ground attack—while at the same time giving Hezbollah (and Assad) an out they know neither will take.
In fact, Olmert’s office has now expanded its demands:
The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem stated that Israeli was demanding the Lebanese army deploy along the southern border to control Hizbullah. The PMO clarified that they had no intention for an international force be redeployed but Lebanon’s national army.
The statement read: “Resolution 1559 must be upheld, which calls for the Lebanese army to be deployed along the border and Hizbullah to be disarmed. This is our demand.â€Â
As Blogs of War notes:
[…] Israeli spokemen keep repeating the promise that when the war ends Hezbollah will not be on Israel’s northern border and a ground war is the only way to achieve that goal. Once Israel is satisfied with their sweep I think we’ll see some kind of multinational force move in. Israel is open to the idea:
On Sunday, senior diplomatic officials said Israel will not rule out an international presence in southern Lebanon to prevent Hizbullah from returning there after the completion of the current military operation.
The official said this would undoubtedly be on the agenda when a high-level delegation headed by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s senior adviser V.J. Nambiar and Terje Roed-Larsen arrives on Tuesday.
Tony Blair is also talking up the concept. Like I said I think it’s a good move but a bit early:
“The blunt reality is that this violence is not going to stop unless we create the conditions for the cessation of violence,†Blair said after talks with Annan on the margins of the Group of Eight summit. “The only way is if we have a deployment of international forces that can stop bombardment coming into Israel.â€Â
Overnight, Israel struck more than 60 targets inside Lebanon; and thus far, it seems to me that international objection to Israel’s “disproportionate” (read: not willing to go tit for tat, but looking to remove the Hezbollah threat entirely, and possibly even the Assad government in Syria) response has been rather tepid—at least by the standards of usual anti-Israel denunciations and accusations of Zionist aggression.
PJM and Hot Air continue the roundups. See also, Counterterrorism Blog and Confederate Yankee—who quotes Ze’ev Schiff’s analysis in Haaretz and concludes :
[…] an Iran that has nuclear-capable missiles in southern Lebanon is another matter entirely, as it is an entirely more practical and worldly extension of Iran’s hatred for Israel.
A well-timed and executed Iranian nuclear weapon first strike could easily be disguised as just another conventional Raad rocket attack like the ones that have already been fired on Israeli cities. Iran could conceivably and rather easily hide a crippling nuclear first strike in a barrage of Hezbollah missiles, incinerating the majority of the country before Israel even suspected it was under a nuclear attack.
For these reasons, Israel must not only beat Hezbollah back and rearrange another stalemate, it must continue on until Hezbollah in Lebanon is destroyed. To not follow through is to endanger the very existence of the nation, and to potentially invite an Iranian nuclear attack.
Opinions differ as to how close Iran is to achieving nuclear weapons; similarly, opinions differ over the mental stability of the Iranian President and the mullacracy: are they simply playing crazy, or are they willing to try to bring about an end times scenario by launching a nuclear strike on Israel, using Hezbollah as their proxies?
I’m no expert, but from where I’m sitting, it’s looking more and more like international leaders aren’t willing to take the risk, and are tacitly allowing Israel to do what it has to do to rid itself of a Hezbollah threat made all the more dangerous from Iran’s willingness to supply the terror group with long-range missiles and other advanced weaponry. And once Israel is done, I doubt there will be the need for an international peacekeeping force.
****
update: Plenty more from Allah. Olmert is saying Israel will withdraw if Hezbollah returns the kidnapped soldiers and leaves southern Lebanon. Like me, though, Allah believes that this is simply cover—Nasrallah won’t give up southern Lebanon, which will allow the offensive to proceed, and Israel will be able to say they gave Nasrallah an out.
Meanwhile, Iran is saying it will aid Syria if Israel attacks. Given their agreement, what else is Iran going to say? The question is, how are they going to aid Syria?
See also, neo-neocon.
Very curious, no? I mean, when push comes to shove, there are a lot of very wealthy Arabs with a lot to lose by not attempting to leash up a crazed Iran that’s rattling nuclear-tipped sabres. Sure, all these wealthy Arabs can get all the cover the need by mouthing the same Joo-hatin’, Zionist rhetoric but do they really want to see this thing escalate? Really?
The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem stated that Israeli was demanding the Lebanese army deploy along the southern border to control Hizbullah.
Doesn’t Hezbollah vastly outnumber the Lebanese army? That could be a suicide mission.
Dear Lebanon,
Force the release of the Israeli soldiers and hezbollah looks like moron and your country stops being disassembled by Israel.
A friend
P.S. Ignore Iran. Their turbans are too tight.
Op|For also argues that Israel has been “prepping the battlespace” for the insertion of ground troops.
Absolutely. Nothing is gained in a tit-for-tat response. Isreal must show that they have the intestinal fortitude to achieve victory.
Issuing cease-fire terms that are known to be unacceptible to the other actors is a genius way to continue their assault. Isreal should not stop until the last cockroach is crushed.
”…so we need somebody to hold a shotgun on them hayseeds while we go in there an’ GIT THAT CASH!”
Oh, sorry. Wrong movie.
Carry on.
SB: sent
you are
Mojo,
Are we “use’n code names” today?
Demanding that the Lebanese army control Hezbollah is a stroke of genius. It pressures the Lebanese government to put up or shut up, it shows the world community a respect for the legitimate Lebanese government, it makes an end-run around cynical calls for the worthless interference of an international peace-keeping ‘farce’ and it makes Hezbollah an offer they absolutely, positively must refuse unless they want to look like a bunch of sissies. A call to slit their own throats en masse would be more welcome. Ha!
My first thouight when I read Ralph Peter’s thing this morning was how often Ralph Peters falls into the trap of thinking that because someone (the Israelis, George Bush) aren’t doing things the way he’s propose, they must be idiots.
But. but, but…for every Hezbollah they destroy, another hundred will rise up. Or something. Because, I’ve been told by certain people, fighting terrorism breeds more terrorists.
Unless you do it with a subpoena. Then, it’s okay.
The Lebaneze military amounts to about 60-80,000 personnel, while Hizbollah has something on the order of 3000 “militants” in Southern Lebanon. The question that has come up, though, is whether the Lebaneze army is willing to crack down on Hizbollah. There are apparently rival factions within the army, some loyal to the concept of a Lebanon independent from Hizbollah/Syria/Iran, some very loyal to H/S/I. It is, once again, very tribal. It’ll be interesting to see if the Lebaneze government has enough power to assert itself. They’ll also have to deal with Hizbollah representatives in their parliament.
Hopefully not once the IDF gets through with them.
Oh, and you should try to not come off as “too Jewish.” I hear that angers the would-be terrorist types, too.
Should Israel from Philistian yoke deliver!
Ask for this great Deliverer now, and find him
Eyeless in Gaza, at the mill with slaves,
Himself in bonds under Philistian yoke.
Nate:
“Well son, if’n I freeze, I cain’t drop. An’ if I drop, well, I’m-a gonna be in motion…”
SB: night
and fog
Given the amount of Lebanese transportation infrastructure they’ve demolished, it would seem that now is the ordained time. If Israel were going to be content with pushing Hizballah back from their border, it would make sense to leave them a place to so. Syria would be ideal, for instance. Unfortunately, for Nasrallah and Co., there is no road to Damascus left.
And if what we think may be sitting in the Bekka Valley really is sitting in the Bekka Valley, (with “Made in Iraq” labels) the War on Terror as it relates to government sponsors just got a whole lot more interesting. I’m tempted to guess that this plan has been coordinated and greenlighted for maximum advantage for the US as well as Israel. Just in time for the midterms.
I question the timing. And then I giggle a little.
tw: wish
That is what amazes me. Where else in a democratically government does this shit exist? Would the Italian government allow “millitants” to take pot shots at Greece? For years?
It is the initial responsibility of Lebanon to clean up the mess that Hizbollah has created.
Nuke: That’s the precisepoint: the Lebanese army doesn’t have the power to disarm Hez. The issue isn’t in dispute.
Israel has found the Arab States’ Achille’s Heel: non-state enemies that aren’t Palestinians.
I keep reading about how Hizballah is now trapped due to the destruction of the roads and infrastructure. But if that is true, why do I keep reading about the Westerners in fleeing to Damascus as the only way left out of Lebanon?
Couldn’t Hizballah’s leaders & important people flee too?
BM sez:
Where? Everything I’m seeing has people stuck until seagoing transport gets there.
And that said, they may well get the top dogs out. Individual people are easy to move. Truckloads of arms, and large groups of fighters, not so much.
I think we’re seeing the New Osirak. Israel will be condemned for doing the work they’ll be (quietly) thanked for later.
Though I believe the condemnations for Osirak were significantly louder.
A nuclear missile placed in Lebanon can hit Israel, yes. It can also be turned around and hit, say, Nice. Or Monaco.
Can’t have that happening, now can we?
I don’t think this is a question of Israel being “afraid” of casualties and Ralph Peters should know better. I think the Israeli government is reluctant to take severe casualties, partly because the Israelis as a people are tired of casualties.
I mean, bearing in mind that this began as 2 soldiers being taken hostage, what’s the point in taking say, 2 dozen casualties to avoid taking 2 (the two hostages)?
The problem is that the more Israeli casualties there are, and the more rockets hit Israel, the more Israel has to respond either to take out the rockets or to maintain deterrence in terms of potential overwhelming force.
But the threat is always more powerful than the execution: once the IDF goes in, in force, they will take casualties and will accomplish nothing unless and until they finish the job. And that’s the part I don’t think either the Israeli government or people are ready for, yet.
We’ll see what happens.
Steve,
I fully trust that Israel understands the situation. I am pretty sure they have been through something like this before.
Mr Ed: Well, that’s exactly the point. They’ve been through this many times before. And they are tired of it. At least I am not accusing them of being “afraid” as Generalissimo Ralph is doing.
The needle(s) that broke the camel’s back.
T/W enough
That’s bizarre.
It’s not about avoiding casualties. The IDF, like the Marines, does not abandon it’s men as a matter of honor.
Steve, remember that mighty oaks from little acorns grow. Britain went to war in 1914 in response to a German invasion of Belgium, and read the casualty figures that resulted. If the British knew in 1914 the amount of casualties they would take, would they have rushed to Belgium’s defense?
These things can accelerate out of the control of the leader of Hezbollah, or Iran, or Syria, or Israel, or the United States. That is what is frightening – matters may have reached the point that a decision must be reached no matter what the leaders want.
Heinlein had quite a sensible bit about that question.
Wish I could remember it.
Pablo wonders where are reports of people fleeing to Damascus.
Here and there on the web when reading various topics (e.g. here foodie group) ) or a blog post (lebop who might post pic’s of his road trip if he can) the topic of fleeing to Damascus appeared.
Weird war, this one, with the web so much more develeoped now-a-days.
Anyway.
A more MSM report would be:
link
Quote, “Cars packed with families streamed through Lebanon’s eastern border at Masnaa on Sunday, making their way to Syria, after a drive through one of the last remaining routes out of the besieged country.
The Syrian border guards seemed eager to facilitate entry to people fleeing Israel’s bombings, provoked by last week’s capture of two of its soldiers by Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia guerrillas, a group Syria backs.
I watched the people on Sunday as I moved in the opposite direction, towards Beirut. “My dear girl, why are you going the wrong way,†said a Lebanese army officer at the border point. “People are leaving. No one is going in.â€Â
It must be getting hard and harder to flee though, certainly in large groups.
TW: Death.
Whoa.
Scary.
This way Olmert gets to promote the lie, popular among wingnuttia here, that lebanon is somehow to blame for this. That they lack will, or resolve, to take on Hezbollah. A group that not even teh IDF has been able to destroy in 20 years.
>Heinlein had quite a sensible bit about that question.
IIRC, “Men are not potatos.”
Time for a Quayle moment.
Obligatory IGNORE ACTHOLE post. Don’t do it for me…..do it for your own mental health.
And it’s the Right Thing to do.
Indeed. The ignoring strategy has already prompted him to ratchet up the stupidity. He might even become amusing.
If the unthinkable happens and Hizbollah or Iran nukes Israel, does anyone think the US would counter with a flurry of our own nukes? Everyone seems to think that Iran would be be foolish to bring nukes or other WMD into the fray, but I’m not quite sure we have the national will to unleash a disproportionate response. MAD worked with the Soviets – but can we be sure it’ll work with the mullahs? Sometimes I wonder.
“but can we be sure it’ll work with the mullahs?”
Well, we can’t know for sure until we try, can we? Qum in the soft afterglow of a 50 megaton strike might be convincing to the maddest of the mullahs.
I ran into a reference to Syrian tanks massed on Lebanon’s border in the comments concerning this piece at Treppenwitz. Has anyone else seen any reference to Syrian armor on the move?
Right now we can tell that the mullahs seem quite happy to send others to die, rather than doing it themselves. Like the fat, pasty type in that movie Paradise Now. Talks the talk—and sends others to die. Perhaps these mullahs could get some websites.
Reminded me of an ex-girlfriend and some vitamin V and some of daddy’s special sauce. BTW that stuff rooooox: it would convince the maddest mullah that he, his entire crew and the headboard need to take a shower. Booyah!
TW: family, as in thank god this is a family site.
Or perhaps you could get a website of your own? Oh, you already do? Perhaps if your website didn’t suck ass, you wouldn’t feel the need to drop turds here?
T/W The boys love it when actroid floats a chickenhawk reference.
Re-ignore Actardo The Fifth, Prince of Jackassery, Lord of the Eighteenth District of Miserable Ignorance.
<a href=”http://hotair.com/archives/the-blog/2006/07/17/video-gillermania/” target=”_blank”>BTW, Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN just slipped on his steel-toed shitkickers and delivered a coup de grace to the librul hornet’s nest:
Booyah!!!
Sorry Verc. It’s difficult to restrain from verbally abusing it. Bygones.
If the unthinkable happens and Hizbollah or Iran nukes Israel, does anyone think the US would counter with a flurry of our own nukes? Everyone seems to think that Iran would be be foolish to bring nukes or other WMD into the fray, but I’m not quite sure we have the national will to unleash a disproportionate response. MAD worked with the Soviets – but can we be sure it’ll work with the mullahs? Sometimes I wonder.
One would hope that even Iran isn’t that stupid despite their rhetoric. However by removing Hizbollah from their boarders and pushing them back into Syria they buy themselves time incase of a launch and at the same time reduce the usual suspects to two, Iran and Syria. Everybody in the neighborhood already knows that they will only get one chance to launch.
Watch what the other Arab States do. That is the key to how this will play out. Noone else seems to want to get in bed with either Syria or Iran.
There’s some painful reading over at Michael Totten’s place over all this. It plain sucks having to hammer Lebanon 18 months after the Cedar Revolution.
Turing = account, as in But at some point the Islamabaddies have to be called to account.
My thoughts have moved in the same traces this weekend. Great minds etc.
And – despite the warnings to ignore – I do have to say that I don’t think anyone here thinks Lebanon is responsible as such for Hizbollah. Syria, sure. Iran, definitely. But Lebanon, not so much (despite the UN resolution). Many Lebanese are pissed about what the Israelis are doing right now, but many others are glad of it, since the IDF is about to do a job that the Lebanese gov’t can’t do itself, and rid Lebanon of an ugly remnant of the civil war.
IOW, does MAD work with the mad?
BTW, something tells me that in a few months the Israeli govt will, very quietly, cut a nice big check to the Lebanese govt for “infrastructure repair”.
Actus, Dick Cheney has a request for you. Says Pat Leahy can advise you if you can’t figure out how to do it.
I think they can use blogspot or myspace.
well, I noticed Shep Smith has arrived and is looking very concerned. so, WE’RE SAVED!!!!
Um, no. I think both of them have provisions in the TOS against this particular request.
If he could actually do it, I’d pay to watch that.
With all due respect to Ralph Peters, finding the bunkers and minefields by sending the infantry in and watching for the spurts of pink mist is so 20th century… If the Israelis can control the tempo of operations to their satisfaction, they’d be fools not to.