Ever the European trendsetter, Germany appears to be getting just a little bit suspicious of those strange Iranian volk, with their crazy beards and quaint headgear, and their very modern nuclear ambitions. From Der Spiegel:
Iran has broken the seals at nuclear facilities signaling its intention to start production of enriched uranium anew. This is seen as a major provocation in Europe and many newspapers in Germany warn that it’s time to drop the carrots and starting wielding the sticks.
Iran has called the Holocaust fiction, it’s called for the destruction of Israel and, on Monday, it removed the seals from nuclear fuel research facilities so it could resume uranium-enrichment work. It’s been an escalation in antics from the mullah-led country that has caused many in Europe to throw up their hands in dispair after months of exhaustive diplomatic work and painstaking negotations.
Officials in Europe and the United States fear the enriched uranium will be used by Tehran for a suspected clandestine project to produce the mullah regime’s first nuclear warhead. Monday’s move drew sharp criticism in both Europe and the United States. In Germany, Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the move “cannot be left without consequences,” adding he would discuss the issue with France and Britain later this week. In Germany, most newspaper editorialists say there’s been enough talk—now it’s time for stronger measures.
In an editorial running under the headline “Appetite for Self-Destruction,” the leftist Berliner Zeitung asks what is driving Tehran? The paper notes a new dimension—following Russia’s game of natural gas roulette with the Ukraine, when Tehran now says it doesn’t want to have to rely on other countries for it’s energy, it has some credibility for those claims because, in fact, “Russia is not a reliable partner.” Still, the paper is critical of Iran’s uranium enrichment program and writes that it’s hardly surprising the German foreign minister is speaking of “disastrous signals.” It’s now becoming apparent that there won’t be any further talks between the European Union, which has been seeking to negotiate an agreement with Iran. But what is making Iran steer this self-destructive course? “Either they believe they have nothing to gain, no matter what concessions they make to the EU, or they feel so strong that they do not fear a UN debate and sanctions,” it writes before concluding that it’s probably a sense of both.
The Financial Times Deutschland calls the efforts of the so-called EU troika—Germany, Britain and France—to try to keep Iran from producing weapons-grade uranium have completely failed. Up till now, the Europeans have tried to lure the Iranians with economic carrots while threatening them with American sticks. But so far, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been unimpressed. Now, the paper says, “The credibility of the international community is at stake.” It asks how serious the EU really is about its “declared goal of stopping Iran from building the atom bomb and how far they are prepared to go to achieve that goal?” Burned by the experience over the Iraq war, the Europeans aren’t keen to take this to the United Nations Security Council, but the FTD argues that it should be the next stop. “Initially, this would be a symbolic step, but it is one that would show that Europe is prepared to be tough.”
The conservative Die Welt is equally pessmistic. “You don’t have to be a prophet to see that Tehran is going to be the foreign policy crisis of the year,” the paper’s editorialist writes. “Iran doesn’t just want to have access to nuclear energy, it also wants a bomb.” The paper notes ominously that the mullah regime already possesses midrange missiles—which enable it to threaten the entire Middle East and to assert political pressure on Europe. “President Ahmadinejad never tires of emphasizing that Israel will be the first target,” it continues, “and he rambles on about his fantasies of destruction almost every day.” Neither London, Paris, Berlin nor Washington know how to deal with the threat the country poses, it exclaims. The paper calls for both political and economic sanctions—including banning the soccer-obsessed Persians from the World Cup and the freezing of Iranian bank accounts around the world. If that doesn’t work, the paper argues, there’s always an oil embargo and sea blockades. “In the end, perhaps only military action will be effective,” it concludes. “If that were to come about, Tehran would mostly have itself to blame.”
The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung draws attention to an uncomfortable fact the other papers gloss over: there’s no law or treaty banning peaceful nuclear research. What Tehran is claiming to do—uranium enrichment—is perfectly legal—it simply violates the good will of Germany, France and Britain, with which Iran negotiated a voluntary deal two years ago to abandon its uranium enrichment program. But the paper describes the development as highly politically damaging. “The question is what, if anything, the Europeans and the Iranians still have to talk about?” If talks do resume, the paper argues that any pledges from the EU to deliver modern nuclear technologies or fuels to Tehran if it abandons the enrichment of weapons-grade uranium must be taken off the table. With oil prices at more than $60 per barrel, Russian roulette at the gas tap, general energy shortfalls and Asia wooing Tehran for its energy reserves, Iran is in a strong position right now. But this won’t last and if Tehran wants to unleash the country’s economic potential, Europe’s good will is indispensible. “Losing touch with reality,” the paper warns, “won’t solve any of their problems.”
From the left to the right, everyone in Germany finally agrees that Tehran is a nuclear catastrophe in the making.
Still no thoughts on what to do with it—though of course, when push comes to shove, talk of the American stick is suddenly raised with far-less haughty disdain.
The only question now is, has European posturing—including arrogant pretensions to the efficacy of their own diplomatic skills—put the western world at a risk that might have been prevented had solidarity of purpose been reached earlier between the US and its ostensible western European allies.
Either way, dark clouds begin to emerge on the European horizon…
(h/t Allah)
I don’t think anyone yet realizes just how insane they are. Ahmadinejad is from a cult that was so nutty the Ayatollah Khomeini banned it.
That’s right: they’re from the lunatic asylum in the lunatic asylum. The people so crazy, even the crazy people think they’re nuts.
This group is going to have few moral qualms about nuking Israel, and not many more about being nuked in return. Hey, it’s win-win—they slaughter the infidel and get an expedited one-way ticket to Paradise where they’ll be rewarded for it.
Funny, innit, how diplomacy doesn’t work when one party is intent on it not working.
This obviously calls for sanctions and a strongly worded letters.
And, on behalf of the United Nations, I must condemn in the strongest possible terms, the aggressive and illegal policies of Israel that have provoked Iran to take these measures.
That hurt my brain. I hope I don’t ever try to channel Kofi again.
A “red line” has been crossed.
Helpful hint: I was having a hell of a time pronouncing “Ahmadinejad” until I saw Ledeen hyphenate it: “Ahmadi-Nejad.” It took me a while to figure out who he was talking about. But it’s changed my life.
We owe ALL of this FUBAR to Jimmy Carter.
Just so no one forgets.
I offer this edifying history lesson in case the Europeans accept the inevitable: Number of American planes in the Kosovo campaign–732; Number of German planes–8.
Hegemony–it’s FANTASTIC.
Allah, your link contains this howler:
Ahem…Russia, anyone?
As we all know, Pakistan and Israel SURROUND Iran in much the same way Nebraska and New Hampshire surround the Gulf of Mexico.
Last time I checked, neither had threatened to wipe Iran from the map. Though the Paks might have some choice words for India.
I have vowed not to hate in the new year, but I loathe idiot MSM commentary.
This is awful news, because this time it is about WMD.
I hope the EU is prepared to assist. But their 50+ biplanes, 100+ ships-of-the-line, and 500+ cannon won’t exactly do the job. Not sure if they even have machineguns, don’t they still use black powder?
Can any of the EU countries even get to Iran? Germany’s constitution doesn’t allow for out of country offensive operations (in this case, they might consider this operation as “defensive”).
“Up till now, the Europeans have tried to lure the Iranians with economic carrots while threatening them with American sticks.”
Just love this comment – says it all. As usual the Europeans will expect the Americans to provide the military power while wringing their hands over the inevitable civilian casualities – must certainly be nice to be able to straddle that moral fence.
Most likely Israel will take out as much of their nuclear capacity as possible. That will play well in the European press, I am sure.
Debka says we’re already past the point of no return.
Well.
No.
Of course not.
As so well put in MP’s The Life of Brian, scene 21:
JUDITH:
They’ve arrested Brian!
REG:
What?
COMMANDOS:
What?
JUDITH:
They’ve dragged him off! They’re going to crucify him!
REG:
Right! This calls for immediate discussion!
COMMANDO #1:
Yeah.
JUDITH:
What?!
COMMANDO #2:
Immediate.
COMMANDO #1:
Right.
LORETTA:
New motion?
REG:
Completely new motion, eh, that, ah– that there be, ah, immediate action–
FRANCIS:
Ah, once the vote has been taken.
REG:
Well, obviously once the vote’s been taken. You can’t act another resolution till you’ve voted on it…
JUDITH:
Reg, for God’s sake, let’s go now!
REG:
Yeah. Yeah.
JUDITH:
Please!
REG:
Right. Right.
FRANCIS:
Fine.
REG:
In the– in the light of fresh information from, ahh, sibling Judith–
LORETTA:
Ah, not so fast, Reg.
JUDITH:
Reg, for God’s sake, it’s perfectly simple. All you’ve got to do is to go out of that door now, and try to stop the Romans’ nailing him up! It’s happening, Reg! Something’s actually happening, Reg! Can’t you understand?! Ohhh!
[slam]
REG:
Hm. Hm.
FRANCIS:
Oh, dear.
REG:
Hello. Another little ego trip for the feminists.
LORETTA:
What?
FRANCIS:
[whistling]
REG:
Oh, sorry, Loretta. Ahh, oh, read that back, would you?
Here’s guessing that Israel will do the heavy lifting on this one. America’s Best will wearily have to deal with the impending (w/in 5 years) WWIII that is brewing in Eurabia. History does indeed repeat itself.
It’s such a done deal the Democrats are already working on their spin. “There were no nuclear weapons found at the bottom of those really large craters in Iran. Once again, Bush lied brown people died.”
The credibility. Of. The international. Community.
Snicker.
Mostly, huh?
Wishbone,
Other words for “hate” that will work in a pinch:
As in “Iran’s mullahs are opposed to the Jewish state.” A little disdain is OK in “06.
-Steve
Iranian Nuclear Facilities, meet the Israeli Air Force- Israeli Air Force, meet the Iranian Nuclear Facilities.
Now you kids play nice.
And what exactly is the current administration going to DO about Iran?
Not much that I can see.
Can’t says I blame ‘em, given their wonderful progress in Iraq.
Maybe Ladeen’s mythical “Iranians” have some ideas….
Interesting article in that it’s shot thru with concern about a nuclear Iran. And this concern comes from…? Apparently “self-evident” isn’t just for American founding documents anymore.
So before PITA, Pschy-berian and the Random Clouded Word Generator come by (but not before the CarlGossBorg shits in the thread with yet another baiting opportunism) let me offer that when the polite Germans don’t even bother to make a detailed case for a non-nuclear Iran—preferring interesting rhetoric like ‘Appetite for Self-Destruction’—well, that’s where I laugh my ass off. Wrong again, liberals. Dubya can take a breather on this one now while the leftists take yet another well-earned shot to the face.
Courtesy is overrated. Disdain is more appropriate, what, considering the stakes.
Take it up with the EUROPEANS, moonbats.
Carl – “not much that I can see”.
Well, that tears it. If the all-seeing, all-knowing Carl can’t see it, it just ain’t there.
“can’t says I blame ‘em”. That’s just a fucking lie, Carl. You live to blame every event in history going back to the pre-Cambrian on the republicans.
I “believe” you are the most unlikeable, unconstructive, bitter, foolish, know-nothing, know-it-all troll this blog has ever seen.
Make that a circular baiting opportunism by the The CarlGossBorg…
The wonderful progress in Iraq, decried by Carlwgoss:
a) democratically elected government
b) massive free press
c) more and more Sunnis embracing politics over violence
d) the Muslim world learning what utter savages their beloved mujahedeen are
e) Iraq’s economy growing by 70% even without oil
f) violent deaths in Iraq cut by more than half compared to the rate during Saddam’s reign
g) no more mass graves being filled
h) no more hegemonistic designs by Iraq on its neighbors
i) Sunnis, Shi’ites, and Kurds actually negotiating instead of only killing each other
j) Sunnis agreeing to let a Shi’ite (Allawi) represent their interest
k) Iraqi media (including blogs) giving the Arab world a different viewpoint
l) many Iraqis receiving medical attention and education for the first time in their lives.
m) Iraqis beginning to trust their military and police as protectors instead of oppressors.
A disaster, I tells ya!!!!!!
Perhaps Captain Euro’s non-lethal stun-gun…
The time of Europe has arisen.
Israel will not bomb or otherwise attack Iran in the near future (<= one year from this date).
Write it down. Call me on it if I “lied”.
Regards,
Ric
“What’s so funny ‘bout peace, love, and understanding?”—Nick Lowe reprised by Elvis Costello
What’s so funny about about lack of willpower to depose tyrants and genocial maniacs? A lack of willpower many in the West perceive as some bizarre ennobling trait—to stand by while the weak are crushed and abused?
What’s so funny about Ahmadinejad nuking Tel Aviv because the anti-war pissants from the 60s now in power don’t acknowledge such a thing as evil?
What’s so funny about Tehran dissolving into radioactive rubble upon Israel’s counterstrike because bleeding hearts everywhere put their support behind a corrupt and useless UN?
What’s so funny about a world economic collapse as borders close and shipments of goods cease for the long dark time of uncertainty, post-nuclear exchange? The mouths left unfed, wealthy nations brought terribly low and the poorer nations suffering beyond anything we’ve ever seen in history?
What’s so funny? Not a thing. Not a damn thing.
Hmmm.
1. Anybody who thinks Israel can take out the Iranian nuclear facilities on their own is dreaming. The Iranians know full well what kind of bunker-buster weapons are out there and just what is needed to defeat them, courtesy of the fucking Germans. This is why the US military requested permission to research nuclear bunker-busters but that ended up in a shitpile because of the leftys having a shit-fit over anything with the word “nuclear”.
Fact is that Israel will need American cooperation to succeed, and that’s assuming that it could possibly succeed. If the Iranians built them strong enough it might not be possible to take them out without repeated bombing attacks. If the Iranians, as suspected, have built multiple facilities then bombing just one won’t be enough. If the Iranians have built them in the middle of, or under, residential areas, as suspected, then whomever does the bombing has to be ready for the faux outraged European lefty shit-storm.
2. I’m frankly completely opposed to involving the American military on anything to do with Iran unless Iran directly threatens America, Israel, Iraq or American forces.
Frankly Europe got us all into this crap-fest and Europe can get it’s fat ass off the couch and do something about it. Europeans want the EU to be a fucking “counter-weight” to America? Then haul your counter-weight ass to Iran then. Let’s see how much of a fucking superpower you are.
As long as people are willing to play up to the whole “Europe is a superpower” fucking nonsense the longer this shit is going to continue. European militaries are largely a joke and incapable of projecting power at any distance. During the Balkan campaign the Portugese forces were offered transport to Bosnia on chartered civilian Mediterranian ferries and declined. They preferred to fly there on a USAF transport.
Additionally most of the EU militaries are largely public employment agencies with uniforms. IMHO whoever it is that is the govenor of Texas has more military might at his control than any single European leader.
So Europe want’s to play Supreme Bitch-head over Iraq? Fine. We’ll do Iraq, you do Iran. And don’t fuck up.
I can Russia eventually hooking up with Iran, Putin figuring he can control or assassinate the nutjob mullahs and thereby own the ME. Welcome to the new Axis!
Sanctions targeting the young and the intellectual have the most hope of fomenting a revolution. However, in the meantime, Prez A will have nuked a couple cities.
Hmmmm.
link
If Israel attacks Iran, look to Turkey to provide hush-hush assistance (air space and fueling, primarily).
Doesn’t the European “stick” consist of shoving an American into the ring while yelling “Go get ‘em! Remember our mutual alliance!”?
And didn’t France, Germany and Russia just finish selling the Iranians some shiny new sticks at that big arms fair the Iranians held last year?
Israel has Arrow. We have upgraded Patriots and Standards. It’s tempting, though probably impossible, to just wait and see what Europe has…
We already have them a couple of good staging areas on either side. Although I don’t think Afghanistan is accesible by ferry.
Anyone who thinks that Israel is incapable of setting back the Iranian nuclear weapons programs to the stone age on their own knows very little about the IDF.
Israel actually supplies the US with much of our military technology, not the other way around as people seem to think. I have family who work with Elbit Systems ltd., and I can assure you, Israel will be just fine when it comes to the needed technology to seriously derail any Iranian Nuke plans, either with or without the US.
Even still, if the IDF went to Rumsfeld and stated “here’s what we are going to do, do you mind if we fly over Iraq?”- what do you think Rummy’s answer would be?
Better dark clouds on the horizon than towering white mushroom-shaped ones overhead. Although that may be just a matter of time, now…
I feel sorry for the “average” Iranian stuck in the middle of this mess. I don’t know what I can say to them to help, but it must be getting clear that Ahmadinejad is painting the “Target” logo on his own country. I hope there’s some internal way to stop this, but given the last few decades of history, it’s not hopeful.
Any way you look at it, it’s a bloody mess, especially for the Iranian people.
TW: “an” What a lousy Turing word! What am I supposed to do with that?!?
Actually, Republicans do some things right.
But Iraq isn’t one of ‘em.
GOPers do pretty well with lobbyists though.
Now, let’s see if they can survive the 2006 Congressional elections.
That’ll be an accomplishment, if it happens.
…or just yet another Prediction of Doom for the Republicans that failed to materialize.
But hey, if you keep making those predictions, throwing them out like a 20mm Vulcan throws out shells, one might actually happen. Then you can be just like Nostrodamus, except not quite as successful.
Hmmm.
A great deal of Israel’s military R&D is on behalf of the US military as Israel’s military couldn’t possibly fund more than a fraction of the cost. But what we’re discussing isn’t a bomb or a JDAM. This is a bunker-buster that is powerful enough to take out a facility that is hardened against a nuclear strike.
Israel buys 500 BLU-109s in 2004
BLU-109; 2,000lb bunker buster
Israel buys 100 GBU-28/BLU-113 5,000lb bunker busters
GBU-28
The problem is that you can’t expect the Iranians to build their facilities above ground like Saddam did. With Osirak as an example, and the munitions that the IDF has purchased, it’s very likely that the Iranians have buried their facilities very deep and hardened them a great deal. The purchase of increasingly larger bunker busters from 2004 to 2005 shows IMHO that the IDF thinks it’s going to have dig deeper and deeper to get at the nuke facilities.
Even then it’s still possible to hardened a site so much that only a direct strike with a nuke would do the job. Something that would probably be a last resort action only. Particularly if the Iranians put their nuclear facilities amongst an urban population center.
We’d all like to think the IDF could do the job on their own, but that’s frankly unlikely. At the very least they’d need overflight permission from the US military and the Iraqi government. Very likely the IDF would need KC-135 tanker support for their F-15s, particularly if they’re carrying 5,000lb GBU-28s which would reduce the F-15’s operating range by a considerable margin. And it’s very possible that the 5,000lb GBU-28 just doesn’t have the penetrating power necessary to do the job. If that’s the case then either a bigger weapon will be needed or multiple direct strikes. Perhaps even many multiple strikes.
Another issue is the exact location of the nuclear facilities involved. Iran is completely shot through with earthquake zones and faultlines. You start detonating a couple dozen 5,000lb bombs, or bigger, along a faultline and there’s the very real risk that something is going to get triggered. If that happens then the Law of Unintended Consequences is going to come into play and we’re going to have another disaster like Bam was.
A lot of architecture in Iran is based on sun dried mud brick and heavy roofs. Mud brick is ok for building as long as there aren’t any lateral stresses, but an earthquake will turn mud brick walls into collapsing piles of dirt and the heavy beam roofs will then pancake it’s way down and compress multiple story homes into piles of rubble and dead people.
Frankly it’s not going to be easy for anybody to do the job. And no matter what happens, success or failure, whoever is responsible will automatically be at war with Iran and perhaps a number of other countries.
sw: “analysis”; all analysis as some element of anal in it.
This just in…France has surrendered to Iran.
French president Jacque Chirac is quoted as saying: “Hey, what did you expect? They might actually HAVE nukes, and besides, there’s no doubt whatsoever that some of them were spotted on TV with pointy sticks. Those things HURT!”
In other news, Howard Dean has called for an immediate pull out of all US citizens that possibly could be in range of an Iranian nuclear attack now, or at any time in the future. Quoted in the NY Times, Dean said: “What’s the big deal? So we give up some territory and move everybody on the east coast to Kansas. Isn’t that preferable to pissing off more Canadians, Germans and former Frenchmen who are now Iranian citizens?” Sounds like a wise trade to me. Bush should follow France’s lead on this.”
Former Presidential candidate and current Lurch impersonator John Kerry when asked for comment, had this to say: “I have definite thoughts on that subject”. Two hours later the reporters left.
Finally, Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi with a permanent look of surprise on her face, was momentarily confused when asked what the Democratic response was. Ms. Pelosi was last seen running down the hall away from reporters while looking…um, surprised.
Tman,
The big question has to do more with power projection capability. The ability to drop bombs isn’t questioned, it’s more the range of the flight. I mean if you think about it, Israel hasn’t really ever had much of a reason to work on long-range arial refueling. Additionally, given sufficient legs, they don’t need to worry about violating airspace, so that’s another factor.
Additionally, I think that stating that the US gets a large part of it’s military technology from Israel is overstating the case a bit.
Cheers,
BRD
Ed,
I don’t imagine that the use of bunker busters has much of a potential for setting off an earthquake.
I don’t have any stats, but I just don’t think it’s likely.
But otherwise, you’re pretty much on target for the rest of the comment.
BRD
Hmmm.
Nor I if it’s just one or two. But if the site is deep enough to warrant a dozen or more concentrated, one after another, on the same exact spot. I think you have take it as a possibility even if it’s only a remote one.
Really now. If you’re dropping a dozen 5,000lb GBU-28s on an Iranian nuclear facility dug underneath a heavily populated area near a faultline, what is the most improbable, ridiculous and yet disasterous thing that could happen?
And what the hell. If they do it and it does cause an earthquake, I’m a fucking **seer** man! I can see the future. Weeeee oooooo weeeee ooooo!
I’m on record and Jeff has the tape!
Ed  My god, that may just be the dumbest thing posted on this blog since the clown who thought “tribunal” meant “three”.
There is ZERO chance of conventional bunker busters starting an earthquake. There is ZERO chance of even nukes doing so. The forces involved are too great, at too great a depth in the earth’s crust. I don’t care what that nasty Gene Hackman fellow did in “Superman.”
Carl  40 of the 45 Democratic Senators took bribes from Abramoff. And in case you didn’t notice, Reid has his knickers in a twist right now because a bunch of Democratic Congressmen led by Mark Kennedy of Massachusetts are refusing to give their bribes back.
1) Let’s skip the wankfest, eh? You’re both pretty. Israel and the US are rough peers in terms of the quality and capability of their armed forces, man for man, as well as in technology.
2) However, we have more stuff, just the sheer quantities of it. We have all the gold-plated stuff too, like lots and lots of tankers, satcom, etc. We are also closer to Iran (Iraq, Afghanistan) than is Israel. It would be much easier for us.
3) Israel’s capacity to eliminate the Iranian nuclear infrastructure is MARGINAL. Let’s say they have five or six hundred big-bopper bunker-busters. These can hold at risk no more than two or three hundred hard targets if you allow for redundancy, even assuming the smaller BLU-109 can do the job on a given aimpoint. There are two or three hundred (KNOWN) nuclear sites, so technically it could be done. However,
a) No more bombs left; little margin for error
b) Requires hundreds of planes just to deliver the bombs (no heavy bombers), plus at least as many in support. Gee, I hope nobody comes from the west, while the IAF is all busy over in the east, needing to be bombed.
c) Alternately, attacks can be delivered with multiple sorties per plane, but this will absolutely require sustained permissive transit through somebody’s airspace. Assuming IAF could spook say Turkey’s radar once, they oughtn’t to try it a dozen times.
d) Some targets might require more bombs, four, six, a dozen, which throws out one’s estimates alarmingly.
e) On the bright side, partial (but substantial) results could suffice, but would have to be followed up later for best effect. Long, drawn-out…ramifications, ugh.
f) Iran will retaliate with whatever it has, to include ballistic missiles, HAMAS/Hezbollah/etc uprisings, whatever.
Now I haven’t Israel’s order of battle on hand, but consider the numbers of sorties required, the time, and consider how realistic that is, depending on levels of support/acceptance from neighbors and the US. Also of course cruise missiles and perhaps ballistic missiles could service some targets, and perhaps some insertions of ground forces for certain more sensitive missions such as evidence collection (for the jackals at the UN, say). Probably doable, but really tough, high-risk, high-cost.
The US can do this in a night with the best odds of completion. It is absurd to say hands-off and let the dirty Jews do it; failure in this mission would hurt everybody. If the US will not help, or actively participate, they would be better off stopping the Israelis, which would be absurd, but not absurd as ignoring it.
What would be nice would be to get some more international coloration, primarily the Euros who were supposed to stop this all with their ineffable European non-cowboy savoir-faire. Perhaps to show off what all those tanned, rested and ready air forces can do. Surely Europe can lend out a few hundred fighter-bombers and a few commandos.
If Israel does it, Europe won’t like it, so either they can stop Israel or get with the program.
Now, consider an alternative:
What sequence of covert actions could achieve the desired result? Say, waste Ahmadinejad and X number of the more hostile ayatollahs? Spark an uprising?
Of course, the last would not be easy, but Ahmie has already been attempted to be assassinated once recently. Who’s to say no better luck next time? Assuming that would suffice. Perhaps a timely heart attack would be more in order.
TW: Indeed somebody had better get moving.
ah, nothing like a military hardware wankfest, no?
Anyways, I believe that Israel has already come forward to the US military and stated their intentions. I also believe the US said something back along the lines of “sounds great, how can we help?”.
Sooner or later, Ahmadinejad will go too far. The guy is a complete nutcase, and it really is just a matter of time. Most likely scenario is all five UNSC nations vote for sanctions and inspections in Iran, and Ahmad flips out. This will be followed by the ever dangerous “sternly worded memo” from the UN, and another five years of useless diplomacy.
Best case scenario: the Iranians rise up and take care of the Mullahs themselves, according to most polls the mullahs are as hated by the majority as they are feared.
Worst case scenario: Israel is forced to call Irans bluff and preempts along with USAF help. Then all bets are off, go to your corners and come out fighting.
And double Richards statements, there is no way a bunker buster bomb causes an earthquake. That’s like saying a fruit fly could tip over an oil tanker if it leaned on the wrong side of the boat.
Support BlogIran! and hope for the best…
Aahhhh, ed, no more Superman movies for you.
Better idea, get then space shuttle to fly around the world really, really fast, turning back time to 9/10/01.
That, or we in the dextrosphere could start an online tip jar for the first guy, whoever he may be, with the nerve to give Ahmadinejad ‘two in the hat’, as they used to say.
Hey, there’s gotta be someplace out there where you can buy an international assassin for 16 bucks and change.
TW: Alright, alright–bad idea (even the word-bot knows it)
Hmmm.
Hey I called it! Just you wait and see man.
I am the new Nostradamus! ROFL!
Crap. I was kinda hoping someone else would pile onto this thing but I guess I can’t push this damn thing anymore.
Damn you overly rational bastards! You killed my meme! lol.
sw: “feeling”. Feelings. Never more than feelings….
Hmmm.
On the other hand if there is an earthquake I’m taking credit for predicting it.
You shall all bow down to me! Both you! And your heirs!
lol!
Ed, I’m with BRD and richard. Setting off an earthquake with a couple dozen 5000 pounds is highly unlikely. That’s roughly equal to 54.5 kilotons. That’s a large explosion (“Fat Man”, dropped on Nagasaki, was only about 22 KT)), but not that large compared to the natural forces involved.
While not exactly the same thing, when Mount Saint Helens exploded in 1980, it ”…released an amount of energy equivalent to 27,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs.”
That’s the scale natural forces work at.
Even small fault lines run for miles, and go down miles. That’s a huge mass of rock to move. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s not something that I would worry about. Maybe this would be possible if a particular fault was on the verge of a quake, and such a strike occurred in exactly the right place so as to tip the balance. Maybe. I’d worry more about local shock waves knocking down those mud brick structures, as you noted.
FYI, here’s a map of fault lines in Iran. It gives you an idea of the extent of the fault lines.
But if happens, I and my heirs shall hail you as the new Nostradomus!!!
Hmmmmm! I should note that I’m not familiar with air operations (other than boarding one, I mean), but it seems to me that nichevo offers the most reasonable assessment of the situation, from a bird’s eye view, so to speak.
But from a hardened facilities perspective, there I can offer an opinion. I believe someone in an earlier thread noted that hardened facilities are cheap to build, if you don’t insist on fancy materials. Concrete and earth is all that you need. In massive quantities to be sure, but both are easy to obtain, simple to use, and effective if used properly.
Add in dispersion, camouflage, deception, air defense systems (which still must be reckoned with, even if they are obsolete or worn out), and locating near or in civilian populations, and it’s going to be a tough nut.
But it’s really just a question of having a big enough hammer, and hitting the right place. Oh, and having the will to do the right thing.
Let’s not forget that, lefties.
In March/April 2003, bombing could not manage to kill the then leadership of Iraq. That was with USAF flying from three continents, USN flying off of I don’t remember how many carriers, cruise missles from ships and subs, and Brits. We hit anyplace we wanted to, including right in the middle of residential areas. We kept bombing for long after that, but were not even able to destroy a few hundred kilos worth of squishy ex-leaders. We could easily seriously “degrade” their program, but that’s so 90s.
David  Keep in mind, that if the UN actually sealed those facilities, they’re located. And plutonium production is not something you can stick in an apartment building or van, like a ricin lab.
If you can see it, you can kill it. If you can’t see it, you can still “kill the grid square” as it used to be known back in my flint-and-powder service years.
Step One: Hit the nuke facilities.
Step Two: Mine the oil ports.
Step Three: Wait.
Richard,
One of the things worth noting, is that with the advent of stronger materials and more efficient centrifuge designs, one of the big concerns, is that very small centrifuge cascades could be set up in large numbers, allowing fairly good dispersal. Granted, at the Natanz site, the facilities have been aggregated, and at this time, it appears that the Iranians will follow the North Korean model of getting Uranium weapons first, and with those in place, pursuing a Plutonium path.
So, I guess the punch line of this all is that it is not always a guarantee that facilities can be well located. Thus, a strike on Iran won’t wipe out the whole kit, but will hamper and delay their program by a fairly good but.
Regards,
BRD
Where is the Phoenician to tell us that Bush is lying and that these will be three hundred orphanages and gay pride marches?
Doesthat ring a bell?
BTW, the earthquakes bit: was that a bug or a feature?
A bug or a feature? I don’t think that the operational planning team has determined which yet, nichevo.
TW: glass. What is this machine trying to tell me?
Say, has anyone ever actually seen PIATOR and Ahmadinejad together? We know they’re both irrational anti-Semites incapable of coherent thought. Hmmmmmmm…
Victory is the only moral goal in war. Victory requires the kinetic or political dissolution of the enemy. If they’re worth fighting then they’re worth killing, and if they’re not worth killing then they’re not worth fighting in the first place.
The only military action that should ever be taken against Iran is one that does not allow for the survival of the ruling junta. The mullahs must be made to understand that if the US is forced to resort to war, their regime will not survive. History conclusively demonstrates that half-measure military responses merely serve to encourage aggressors and tempt them to miscalculate against us.
yours/
peter.
Yeesh – far be it from me to want to defend Phoenician, but I don’t recall anything he/she has said that was overtly anti-Semitic. I don’t know what Phoenician has posted on other forums, of course, but I don’t think he/she is subject to that brand of hatred.
Hmmm.
Actually it was a vodka fueled joke. I was rather hoping if I intermixed something goofy with a rational comment other people might pick up on it. I’m really very disappointed in this crowd. Frankly I think I’m going to side with the liberals on this score.
You damn conservatives are real buzzkillers.
Hmmm.
Still the Iranians have had a few years to build more facilities that are completely unknown to the UN. In that time period they’ve also consulted with North Korea and other sources so there’s no telling what they’ve done. Sure we know where their public facilities are but I’d be very surprised if they didn’t have a number of more secret facilities.
Additionally there’s got to be a reason why Israel decided to buy 500 x 2,000lb and 100 x 5,000lb bunker busters. If we’re talking a relatively few number of facilities that seems a bit of an overkill.
RACIST!!!!!
Agreed, ed. I have no doubt at all that Iran built at least one secret facility for every one that the UN slapped seals on. They may be crazy, but they ain’t stupid.
This is all so unfair!
We don’t know for SURE that the Iranians have Nukes.
We MUST be sure.
We should wait until we know for a FACT that Iran has nukes, THEN invade. That was the Liberal plan for Iraq, and other than the fact that a few 100,000 American troops might die and several countries become contaminated for a little while, it seems like a sound one to me. Besides, that way the fight is more fair.
That is what I thought, til I saw this link at AoSHQ, featuring the following:
I now think they are both crazy and stupid.
I read various speeches Ahmadinejad has made about bringing about the Mahdi, the Islamic version of the messiah, and i am truly scared. In January, Ahmadinejad mad a speech saying that he felt he could bring the Mahdi down to earth, and make Iran his promised land. Speaking of the conditions that will bring the Mahdi down to earth, Ahmadinejad said:
In his first speech to the UN, Ahmadinejad was already speeking about the coming of the coming of the Mahdi on the UN floor:
A week after this speech Ahmadinejad made all the incoming members of his new cabinet take an oath, to do whatever they could to bring about the coming of the Mahdi in Iran in their generation.
Last week, at the rally marking the 27th Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, and while addressing hundreds of thousands of Iranians, he indicated that the protest over the cartoons was the first step in bringing about the Mahdi. It’s definitely scary stuff, let’s hope someone takes him seriously enough to do something about hime before it’s too late.
Anything that pleases a doomer. ,