From Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard, “Eighty Percent of What?”
The poll number—80 percent of Iraqis want Americans out of their country—has become a staple of Democratic antiwar rhetoric. Representative John Murtha cited it in his proposed House resolution calling for the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Democratic national chairman Howard Dean mentioned it in the radio interview in which he said the war in Iraq is unwinnable. Senator Barbara Boxer put it this way on Fox News Sunday: “Eighty percent of Iraqis want us gone.” Senator John Kerry made reference to the poll number in responding to a speech on Iraq by Vice President Cheney last month.
Democrats may be oblivious, but there are reasons to be skeptical of the 80 percent figure. Does it actually reflect support among Iraqis for immediate withdrawal? Probably not. Or have Democrats misconstrued its meaning to justify their demand for the removal of American forces from Iraq, in Murtha’s words, “as soon as possible”? It sure looks that way.
There’s no doubt about the authenticity of the opinion survey from which this particular finding emerged. That poll was conducted secretly by an Iraqi university for the British military in August. And the poll’s results were disclosed in October by Sean Rayment, the defense correspondent for the Sunday Telegraph in London.
The problem with the 80 percent figure—actually, 82 percent were said to be “strongly opposed” to “coalition forces in Iraq”—is threefold. One, it clashes with the demographics of Iraq. Two, it’s at odds with other polls in Iraq. And three, the question that elicited the
82 percent response is vague, which means the response is ambiguous.
The population of Iraq is made up of Sunnis (20 percent), Shia (60 percent), and Kurds (20 percent). The Sunnis in the poll would no doubt say they strongly oppose “the presence” of the American-led coalition in Iraq and favor instant withdrawal. It was the Sunnis and their leader, Saddam Hussein, who ruled Iraq for decades before being overthrown by coalition forces in 2003. The Shia, on the other hand, were persecuted by Saddam and thus were happy to see him and his colleagues ousted. The Kurds were even more viciously persecuted and are downright pro-American. So the obvious conclusion, based on Iraq’s demographics and simple math, is that 82 percent of Iraqis probably do want Americans to leave eventually, but that they don’t favor immediate withdrawal.
If we knew the “internals” of the poll’s sample, we could say for sure whether 82 percent of a representative sample of Iraqis said they favored immediate withdrawal. I contacted Rayment, who broke the poll story, and learned the sample size (1,264 Iraqis), but not the breakdown of Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds. That remains unknown, at least publicly. It matters, though. If the sample consisted disproportionately of Sunnis, for example, that would explain a high number of respondents who want U.S. forces to withdraw immediately. However, it wouldn’t be a faithful reflection of overall Iraqi opinion.
Earlier polls tell a different (and clearer) story, though still not one that’s favorable to keeping American troops in Iraq indefinitely. In March 2004, a BBC poll of 2,500 Iraqis found that 51 percent opposed the continued presence of coalition troops in their country. And in May 2004, a poll in six Iraqi cities, including ones with significant Sunni populations, put the percentage of Iraqis who want coalition forces to “leave immediately” at 41 percent. And 55 percent said they would feel safer if those forces left.
The wording of the question in the poll cited by Democrats is important. It is: “Do you support the presence of coalition forces in Iraq?” It’s likely the vast majority of Iraqis would like to see foreign troops leave Iraq at some point. Even President Bush and the Pentagon insist that American forces should be withdrawn as the Iraqi military and security personnel grow and are able to operate effectively on their own.
But an Iraqi who answers “strongly opposed” to coalition troops in Iraq isn’t necessarily in favor of immediate withdrawal—quite the contrary. The six-city poll last year found, for instance, that while 41 percent wanted a quick withdrawal, another 45 percent favored the departure of coalition forces after the establishment of a permanent Iraqi government. This is roughly in line with the desire of the Bush administration to begin troop reductions in 2006.
Iraqis, however, disagree with a core premise of the Democratic calls for immediate withdrawal—at least according to the polls. They do not buy the notion that the United States has lost in Iraq and that things are getting worse there—hence, the need for U.S. forces to withdraw as quickly as possible.
The polling of Iraqis since the ouster of Saddam in April 2003 shows a consistent streak of overall optimism. A poll last month conducted by an Iraqi firm showed that 53 percent of Iraqis believe “things will be better” in six months, while 65 percent believe this will be true in one year and 72 percent think so in five years.
I don’t think any of the Dems who cite this poll believe it means what they say it does, which is what makes the use of it so disingenuous. Instead, the hope is that busy Americans not all that familiar with the specifics of polling will hear the number and believe the worst.
And it has worked, at least, up until these latest elections. Of course, the Dems have a follow-on argument—the high voter turnout was an indication of just how badly they want us to leave—the reasoning being that otherwise disaffected Iraqi voters who hate America went to the polls specifically with the hope of voting to kick us out.
But most Iraqis would not have us leave so long as they believe the threat remains that their country will slip into civil war, or be controlled by Islamists.
At any rate, as Barnes points out, the unknown internals make the poll all but useless as an accurate gauge of Iraqi opinion. Why the Dem leadership choses to highlight this poll against all the others is, unfortunately, all too obvious.
Barnes is on the money as possible. The Democratic party motto should be: In polls we trust.
Lucky for us, we have a president who knows better than to trust polls. We had a poll-driven president recently, for about eight years, and we all remember what we ended up with: a recession and a massive terrorist attack.
Don’t think the American public is ready to try poll-driven policies again.
After 8 years of Clinton, who really believes anything a democrat says?
That’s going to be the trouble in ought six, Gary.
There are lots of people that won’t bother to scratch the surface of the Dem’s stories and will vote for the traitors.
Its sad really. The democrats are like that lonely little kid back in high school who was so desparate to be liked that he threw himself into every new trend in a pathetic attempt to “fit in” with popular kids.
Poll-whores.
There are lots of people that won’t bother to scratch the surface of the Dem’s stories and will vote for the traitors.
I wouldn’t worry about it. Immigration reform will be a big winning issue for us and so will TWOC.
Smithy  TWOC? The War On Clinton?
Nope, that won’t be until 2008. And we’ll win that one too.
Truthfully, Hillary really scares me. A lot more than Kerry or Bill did. I think she is an opportunist and power-monger like we haven’t seen in quite a while. I think you might have to go back to LBJ to find her like.
Immigration,maybe,TWOC,nah.
We have bigger fish to fry. These elections need to hinge on whether or not you think that a fair amount of people on the planet want to kill us for how we live.Most of the GOP realizes somethings up. The dems, with a rare exception, do not.
As I think I have mumbled here before; the current operation in Iraq are not a war unto itself. It is a battle in a larger campaign.
TW: indeed. That guy’s everywhere.
The poll was taken by an Iraqi university for the British military. The British have pretty badly bungled their handling of the South, up to and including having to disband the security elements they’d trained and start again from scratch. This didn’t go unnoticed by the Iraqis (ITM had it first).
Perhaps the Coalition forces the Iraqis would prefer to be rid of are British?
The poll that came out last week, after Barnes’ piece had been submitted, backs his analysis.
That poll found that 65% of Iraqis opposed the presence of coalition troops.
Less of course than the 80%.
But that poll asked more specific questions and found that only 26% wanted us out now, while 19% preferred to wait until the new gvt was formed.
The rest either wanted us gone after the security situation was better.
So only 26 % agree with the Dem position.
(I also wonder about whether Sunni Arabs weren’t over sampled in the poll. For example, when asked whether the US was right to invade, 50% said no. But when they break it down into Sunni vs Shia, 59% of Shia approve of the invasion vs 7% of Sunni—and they don’t provide any number for Kurds (I assume that the Kurd approval numbers would be greater even than the Shia). Assuming 20% of the nation is Sunni Arab, 20% Kurd, and 60% shia arab, wouldn’t 60% Shia approval in addition to 7% Sunni and more than 60% Kurd translate into a greater overall % than 48%? Just wondering.)
The figure of 80% is meaningless.
I daresay that the Germans and Japanese in 1945 would have been close to 100% in asking us to leave; but we didn’t and look what happened.
Actually, there have been quite a few polls showing overwhelming opposition to continued Coalition of the Willing occupation of Iraq, including from Pew and other sources. I don’t suppose, given the reactions to my postings on another thread, however, that the substance of the facts will mean very much to at least a lot of the people here; it appears that only honing down partisan talking points rather than considering contrary information is really what is at issue.
The Weekly Standard piece merely cites two other polls, which are outliers as far as the various polls on whether the Iraqis want the US to stay or not. What was significant about the 82% poll was that it showed a significant SHIFT in the direction of many more people wanting the US to leave than a previous poll conducted under the same auspices.
Majorities of over two-thirds of Iraqis supporting the coalition forces out have turned up not only in the Pew poll either. I suppose that if some of the wonks at this selective-information-laden site, they could dredge up that information themselves, but then again, what’s the point.
Spin seems to be the order of the day here, not any kind of detached consideration of information. I would like someone to prove me wrong by counterexample rather than by (the expected) razzing.
If you don’t think we’re capable of combatting your blitz of words—always initiated with the notion that we’re not going to deal with you substantively anyway—why don’t you just bugger off?
Seriously. You’ve entered here shouting preemptive insults and then wonder why nobody wants to discuss dick with you.
Cloudy, amusing how you fail to actually address the points you boldly claim to be contradicting.
Can anyone parse this for me?
OK, once again, Robin has used his usual tactic of characterizing a comment rather than actually refuting it through argument
It is one of the oldest tricks in the book.
To summarize on the particular argument, it was asserted that only ONE poll had suggested that an overwhelming majority (more than two thirds) of Iraqis want us out. This suggestion is false. There have been many such polls, including at least some that I have seen from Pew, and others in a chart I saw whose names I have forgotten. The notion that the 82% figure was an extreme anomaly is the linchpin of Fred Barnes (and by extension, Jeff Goldstein’s) argument.
Alleged gratuitous insult aside (and, for the record, my initial post wasn’t the least bit personal, but after I saw the spirit of some of the responses, I typed (shouted???) my dismay, in response to those responses) I suppose that Mr. Goldstein might now be interested in researching the many other polls of Iraqi public opinion that have been done other than the ones cited in the Weekly Standard. The material is out there, and I have cited at least one possible source—The Pew Institute. But I suppose they might be considered too “liberal” anyway to use their polling data. But if you are going to mount a critique like Barnes’, the first step is to get the whole picture of what ALL the polls say, and see the range of them, rather than, as I suspect he did, pick out the one or two that were the most favorable to the US remaining, and then building a critique upon them.
So, once again, the points contradicted have been addressed, as the evidence cited in the original post I made on this thread did, at least obliquely.
On the other hand, I gather than Robin Roberts was just pulling another type of argumentative trick that is often used, namely taking the ‘I’m rubber you’re glue’ approach, and taking a criticism that applies quite validly to him, at least on a number of occasions on the other thread where I scored him on it, and then merely hurling it, without substance (but is any needed?) at the person who raised the criticism, fact accurately, in the first place.
It’s a bit like the Bush Administration, which has grossly rewritten history, especially on the issue of Iraq, at every step, turning around and accusing the Democrats of being revisionists and liars. It isn’t just a mode of argument—it’s a whole and wholly perverse way of thinking.
Cloudy, so basically you are claiming that polls you can’t even recall – and so cannot be refuted or deconstructed – prove your case.
And you call this argumentation? Your hypocrisy seems to be your only defining characteristic.
Meanwhile, Cloudy is ignoring the poll from last week, that found, as Fred B argued, that (a) only 65% want us gone, and even more significantly (b) when questioned on when exactly they wanted us out, only 26% agreed with the Dems and said now.
Barnes’ key point was the vagueness of the question. Of course the Iraqis don’t want us in their country forever. This is why the question that elicited the 82% response, and the Dems parroting of it, was so disingenuous. The obvious follow-up question is “when do you want us out”—and that answer is far from what the dems seem to hope.
Jim, I think most Americans feel that as long as we’re winning in Iraq, there’s no reason for us to leave.
That’s backwards, Smithy.
SPQR—my point is that you need to look at the whole slew of opinion polls that have been taken about the US presence on Iraq. And no, I am not a walking encyclopaedia of what all those polls say, offhand, or even the precise content and dates of those polls that I’ve seen.
However, that doesn’t vitiate the point that numerous polls, showing 2/3 or more Iraqis want the US out, have been taken, not just the “single” poll Barnes cites. I am not “ignoring” the particular poll he cites, just calling for an examination of the whole gamut of them.
Here is one example, and it is ONLY an example, of a major poll taken that wasn’t mentioned.
Rather than reprint the whole article, here is an excerpt:
Most Iraqis want U.S. forces out
By Will Lester
Associated Press
Most Iraqis disapprove of the presence of U.S. forces in their country, yet they are optimistic about Iraq’s future and their own personal lives, according to a new poll.
More than two-thirds of those surveyed oppose the presence of troops from the United States and its coalition partners and less than half, 44 percent, say their country is better off now than it was before the war, according to an ABC News poll conducted with Time magazine and other media partners.
<snip>
This poll has mixed results on other issues as far as the dominant RW spins are concerned, but that doesn’t prevent it from being mined to promote a given point of view. I don’t cite it here as “proof” of anything, only as yet another example of opinion showing the high opposition to US presence in Iraq.
Again, one needs to look at the whole slew of polls, rather than only at cherry-picked results from cherry-picked polls.
http://http://www.armytimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-1408504.php
Jeez. I’ve cited that poll twice already in this thread.
Once again, the key figure is not the 2/3 that want to us leave.
Of course they do!
The question is, when do they want us to leave?
And only 1/4 want us out immediately.
Once again, Barnes’ point was that saying 65% or 82% oppose our presence tells us virtually nothing. And he was right.
What I wonder is how many people here really CARE, except as a strategic factor, whether the Iraqis want us out or not.
One little question—are you sure it was the same poll. The article said
You cite the figure of 65%. Sorry to nitpick, but that is LESS than two thirds. Many of these polls may look similar, or have similar results, but be different polls.
One wonders what it means to say they want the US out ‘immediately’. Since most of those antiwar monsters in Congress want the US out by a negotiated, phased withdrawal over about 6 months to a year, one question is where that falls on the spectrum of Iraqi opinion. Do you think that more than two thirds oppose the US presence, but that more than half don’t want us out in less than a full year?
It is one thing to really diligently search for evidence of what Iraqi opinion really is, in the full variety of polls, which as I have noted evinces little interest for some mysterious reason, and another simply to deploy criticism to defend the US policy, which one supports without caring a whit whether the Iraqis want us there or not. In the latter case, it is merely throwing dust up in the air to obscure information that discredits one’s position.
Not surprising, and it goes together with endless complaining about writing style, grandstanding about educational credentials, and presumption of “contradiction” and “hypocrisy” without spellilng it out. Taken together, these things could be said to consitute a syndrome—a kind of defending the ideological nest rather than considering and weighing facts except within VERY narrow ideological parameters.