A SurveyUSA poll of adults in LA shows that Gov Blanco’s disapproval rating jumped 13 points between Aug 15 and Sept 19, from 43% to 56%. September also marks the first time her approval rate has fallen below 50%—standing at 41% on Sept 19, three weeks after Katrina hit the Gulf Coast.
Perhaps counterintuitively, I’m going to conclude that this is a net win for Blanco, who, from every objective indication, was the fulcrum for the civil and relief breakdowns in NOLA in the wake of Katrina. That her favorability rating has only taken a 9% hit is, to my mind, astounding—and a testament the power of the media, whose focus on the third-responder “failures” of FEMA and Michael Brown clearly has helped shape public opinion. Had early media attention concentrated on illuminating the chain of response and command noted in federal and state documents, then from there identified actual points of breakdown and their specific reasons (request of additional Guard troops to maintain order and increase the numbers of troops engaged in rescue efforts; blocking relief into the Superdome; refusing to surrender control to the feds—or even agree to a joint control structure), I’ve no doubt Blanco’s numbers would be far worse.
Any expansion of the Katrina narrative is likely to concentrate on the levee breaches, the Army Corp of Engineers, federal funding, and the local levee board and its attendant graft. Which means that, unless these latest numbers on Blanco are suffering from an information lag, 41% as a nadir—given the extent of her leadership flubs—is from her point of view a blessing.
(h/t Cole)
****
update: Sullivan thinks there’s a lesson here. Though he struggles to locate it.
“Through clever and constant application of propaganda, people can be made to see paradise as hell, and also the other way round, to consider the most wretched sort of life as paradise.”
Welcome to Louisiana politics. Not even a hurricane will force people to bite the hand that feeds them.
Lies, damn lies and statistics. Were the only people questioned still in LA, and if so, how were they contacted when phones and electricity are still down in the hardest hit areas? Or, were refugees in other states questioned? I’m guessing the people able to respond in LA were the least impacted by the governor’s incompetence, and would skew the results in her favor.
TW: voice
Who’s voice does the survey represent?
I suspect that the people polled did not even know how to spell Louisiana, yet alone FEMA
This is a net win for the Mainstream Media, too – for now. But the gains are temporary. Despite the media’s “spin-machine,” history won’t ignore the different evacuation responses, and the subsequent political posturing, resulting from two different hurricanes – one hitting coastal, Republican Texas, the other hitting coastal Democratic Louisiana.
I predict that Rick Perry’s response to Rita will show-up Blanco’s, and the contrast will be stark.
Galveston, another Gulf-coast party town, will be a ghost-town by noon tomorrow, and mean ol’ Rita is not even expected until Friday night. Rick Perry’s clear-headed response has been a model of quiet, proactive efficiency. Blanco’s was to ignore National Weather Service warnings, rant and cry to the press, network with friends to plan nation-wide “message-control,” then start pointing fingers.
So let the MSM gum this bone for a while. Just as their exaggerated Katrina death-tolls came back to hit them on the head, this bone will, too. A lot of folks are gettin’ “Stuck on Stupid” and its beginning to show.
-Steve
I think you have those numbers backwards, Jeff…
As of 9/19 I read 56% disapprove/40% approve.
She is up a little from 6/13/05, which was 35% approve.
Durand
*I’m going to conclude that this is a net win for Blanco, who, from every objective indication, was the fulcrum for the civil and relief breakdowns in NOLA in the wake of Katrina*
Clearly, you have “objectively” failed to read the papers. It is undisputed that president bush failed on eevery level to stop the hurricane- not only did he fail to use his superbreath to the blow the hurricane out to see, he could have simply used his heat vision to evaporate the raid and water (sources tell the New York Times that Bush is so stupid that he doesn’t understand evaporation, thus explaining his failure to use the heat vision). Other tactics which could have been utilized by Bush included using his super strength and ability to repair the levies, or, at ther very least, drop huge boulders in front of the levees to secure them. And obviously, Bush is responsible for the failure to evacuate the poor citizens of New Orleans- as everybody knows, if Bush flies counter-clockwise around the world at top speed, he can actually reverse time. Thus, it would have been child’s play for him to reverse time, declare himself emperior of Louisiana (after incinerating the mayor and governor with his heat vision), taken control of the city and forced his goosestepping stormtrooper army to evacuate the citizens.
Instead, Bush and his stormtroopers stayed well away from new orleans, except for the occasional fly-by, where Bush would use his heat vision to disintegrate black people as they called to him for help (obviously, he’s a racist bastard).
So you keep talking about your “objective” standards- while you do so, I’ll be promoting the truth and celebrating the fact that every point bush looses in the approval polls is just one step closer to impeaching his chimp ass (for those of you don’t know, once the president gets unpopular enough, he can be impeached- look it up).
Now, that is weird…just refreshed the dang page and now your numbers show as correct.
Whats up with that?
Disregard previous blather.
TW:away…yes, I am going away
Keep dreaming Stevie-boy!
Matt, you forgot
/Wadard
at the end of that rant.
There very well could be a lag, such as the 100,000+ people out of state who I would suspect weren’t in the sample. Judging by ABC’s recent response from the evacuees in Houston, their disapproval just might be significantly higher than 56%.
Also interesting to note that “Not Sure” response rate is down to 3%. A majority of the citizens of LA are not about to change their minds about Blanco anytime in the near future.
The real question is: What will be the Texas response to Hurricane Rita, and will it be covered by the MSM? They’ll have to work extra hard in order to avoid putting NOLA preparedness in perspective.
Jeff,
I’ll make you a bet:
When Kathleen Blanco comes up for reelection, she will not even win the Democratic nomination. And whichever Democrat wins the nomination will not win the election. Louisiana is going to become a Red State again.
It will also vote Republican, by a slim margin, in the next presidential election.
If I lose this bet, I’ll eat whatever hat you put in front of me.
And let me tell you why: New Orleans has been emptied of its Democratic base.
If and when New Orleans is rebuilt, the people who come back to it will not be those who got by on welfare and lived in shotgun houses (row upon row upon row of them).
Those homes are gone forever. Whatever is rebuilt many of those who left will not be able to afford. So, they won’t come back. They’re permanently in Houston, Atlanta and other Democratic bases.
The rest of Louisiana from about Lafayette north is fairly solidly conservative and well-educated.
They tend to vote Republican.
Why good heavens, why would anyone blame that poor Blanco woman, don’t they know she was the victim?
I’m already pretty pissed, and Rita is still 36 hrs away. Already, the headlines are saying “FEMA, having learned their lesson…” or “FEMA, attempting to atone for earlier failures…”—is moving relief supplies into position. Just. Like. Last. Time! Rita, no matter how severe, isn’t going to be the total fuckup that Katrina was, because Texas isn’t Louisiana, and Rick Perry, thank God, isn’t Kathleen Blanco.
I pray for my home state, but I know that no matter how bad Rita becomes, it’s not going to be a Louisiana fuckup. And it’s not because “FEMA learned their lesson”.
Do you ever wonder what Ponce de Leon and his merry band thought after their first encounter with a hurricane?
Turing word: face.
I think it’s too late for Bush to turn this around. Even my Republican friends are moaning about how badly BUSH(!), not Blanco and Nagin, botched the response. They mostly seem to think that Katrina was equivalent to a few hundred flooded basements, instead of an area the size of the UK being wiped off the face of the Earth.
I have always hoped that Puff-Puff Clinton was just a passing stink in the night, but he and his crew of revisionists seem to have convinced almost everyone, left AND right, that if you are the President, the law and the Constitution are merely mosquitos to swat away any time they become a bother. Woe to the Republican president who disagrees. Welcome again to the new millenium.
Do you ever wonder what Ponce de Leon and his merry band thought after their first encounter with a hurricane
Posted by charles austin
Of course I have. They thought: “Where the fuck is Bush with our food and water?”
“When Kathleen Blanco comes up for reelection, she will not even win the Democratic nomination. “
I can guarantee she won’t, because there ain’t no “Democratic nomination” in that state. What there is is a bunch of people all running together, one or more of whom may get an endorsement and some money from his local branch of his political party. If nobody gets 50% of the vote, the top two run against each other in a runoff election one month later.
If the people of my native state have a clue, Blanco will not be in the top two next election. Actually, if they have a clue, her poll numbers will be so horiffically bad that she’d be a fool to waste her time running. But then again, if they had a clue, much of Louisiana history going back at least to the days of Huey Long would be different…
rightnumberone: Louisiana is going to become a Red State again.
It will also vote Republican, by a slim margin, in the next presidential election.
Uh, Louisiana voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000.
Turing: “material,” as in what’s not in Blanco’s head.