Steve Green examines the Israeli pullout from Gaza and argues that, all things considered, the Manischewitz is half full:
[…] Does Israel stand to gain anything?
Well, yes.
Israelis won’t have to deal with 1.5 million Palestinians who, by and large it seems, want them dead. The security situation might degrade ever-so-slightly, but the Excedrin Factor just dropped several notches. And that’s no small something for a country that’s been at war for virtually all of its 58-year existence.
The other thing Sharon has accomplished is to maybe, just maybe, force some of the Palestinian leadership to act like grownups. The PA – or Hamas, or whoever – now finds itself in the uncomfortable position of providing water, filling potholes, solving crimes, putting out fires – all the little tiny basic things local government is supposed to do.
And when the PA can’t or won’t provide those things? Then maybe, just maybe, the propaganda-driven death cult Arafat created will die, and the Palestinian people will start acting like grownups, too.
It’s a slim chance, but the only chance Israel can reasonably take. I say that because Israel’s other choices are to become an apartheid state, or expel every single last Arab out of Gaza. Neither option is less undesirable than the one Sharon has taken.
There’s much more—including a section on what Israel loses in the bargain—so you’ll want to read the whole thing.
For my part, I tend to agree with Steve that the Israelis have, in the long term, gotten rid of a major headache. But when we remember how Hezbollah characterized the Israeli pullout of Lebanon as a major victory in the march toward eradicating the Jewish state—and then we see things like this — it’s hard not to think the worst is yet to come.
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gandhi-approved update: “ZIONIST! NEOCON CABALIST! JEW! AHA!”
Now they just need to line up all their heavy guns along the boarder and be prepared to lob retaliatory strikes against Hezbola every time an attack is launched against Israel. Or just line up a whole bunch of bulldozers along the border and push everything that smells Arab into the Med after then next attack. One way or another, Israel will not be secure until the “Palestinian” movement is destroyed and Islam has a reform that eradicates the word Jihad from the lexicon.
I have an idea. Since Sheehan needs another place to camp out – send her to Gaza – to one of the nice, newly freed up houses there.
I see your straddle, and raise you one. And I never even mentioned the word bulldozer.
SMEAR MERCHANT!
ANTI-SEMIOTIC!
By getting completely out of Gaza, Isreal has gained a large stick to shake at the PA: economic blockade.
Should the PA not live up to its security responsibilities, Isreal can simply ban Gaza-based Palestinians from working in Israel, and complicate the PA’s life to a huge degree.
Enforcing such a blockade was always possible, but the presence of settlers made it more problematic due to security concerns.
Once the security fence is completed in the West Bank, expect to see this threat employed there as well.
All this going on really makes the statements being made by CrawfordPeaceHouseCindySheehan absolutely absurd.
Anyone who accuses the Israelis of “genocide” is missing the point that as of this pullout, their purported ethnic cleansing has been effective on no one but themselves. Some genocide. Although I guess suicide can technically be genocide. “Autogenocide” as opposed to “altergenocide?”
Oh, and Cindy Sheehan needs to wipe her mouth with toilet paper after making the kinds of remarks she’s been pinching off.
Meanwhile, the United Nations continues to demonstrate that it is on the side of terrorists and mass murderers.
“Autogenocide” I like it. I will have to steal…er, use with proper attribution…sometime.
I like the term “anti-semiotic.” That’s a keeper.
I was waiting for your comment, Gail.
Will Presbyterian Church USA now call for increased investment in Caterpillar now that Jewish homes will be bulldozed?
Severe Pollyanna warning. The flip side, implausible but not utterly impossible, and premised on the (untested) assumption that the great majority of Pallies just want a decent life but are being undermined by a minority of violent hateful a**holes: Suppose Israel and (mirabile visu) the Egyptians manage to impose a cordon sanitaire which sufficiently protects Gaza from the worst outside infiltrators; and PA/Hamas is then forced to put up or shut up re basic municipal functions; and they (of course) fail; and then are either forced to reform or (more likely) get shit-canned; and then (with dollops of outside financial/logistical help) Gaza before long morphs into a peaceful, happy, and prosperous statelet. What’s the political fallout in the West Bank when they see their western cousins living in this enviable condition once freed from their evil “leaders”?
Okay, okay: extremely unlikely; but impossible?
Hey, don’t I get any credit for “hipocracy”?
I get no respect.
/Dangerfield
This shaping up as a less bloody version of the partition of Pakistan from India. And we all know how well that turned out…look at Kashimir.
You would, mojo, except for, you know, THE HIPOCRACY!!!
turing: maybe. As in, ”Maybe that one was just a little too obvious. :D
Wait a minute here, Jeff is Jewish?
Hmmm.
Actually I disgree with the VodkaPundit in some ways.
1. Gaza is now a source of internal friction in the PA as Fatah and Hamas square off in an incipient civil war. There’s a lot of publicity, money and status in controlling Gaza and power-sharing agreements generally don’t last.
2. AQ has stated it’s intention to make it’s home in Gaza along with, I assume, many other terrorist and criminal groups. I somehow can’t see AQ kowtowing to either Fatah or Hamas so the possibility of an all out factional struggle for control over Gaza is a real possibility.
3. Gaza is a very small strip of land and is bounded on all sides by Israel, Egypt and the Med Sea. It would be insanely easy for the CIA and whomever to completely saturate the entire Gaza strip with electronic intelligence devices.
4. Israel is leaving after having controlled Gaza for decades. As such it would be possible to either plant or recruit deep cover agents into Gaza and then have them infiltrate terror groups, something that has been extremely difficult to do up til now.
5. It’s a very real probability that fanatical Islamists will have a big presence in Gaza. If so then they’ll conduct themselves largely as they had in Fallujah, i.e. rape, pillage, rob, murder, beat on a whim. It’s notable that most businesses in Fallujah closed within days of conquest by fanatical Islamists. It’ll be a curious thing to see if the same thing happens in Gaza.
6. Finally it can be assumed that Gaza will, at best, end up like the West Bank in economic terms. In which case the residents of Gaza are completely screwed as neither Fatah, Hamas or anyone else in the PA has any idea on how to actually govern.
…
There are a lot of potential pitfalls in this strategy of leaving Gaza. But there are many other positives also.
“Israel is getting rid of 1.5M palis”
Like how?
last time I checked it was the jews how were being kicked out of the gaza strip
so unless there is some second phase to the plan that involves the arabs in the strip moving out too or maybe the strip would be physicly detached from the rest of Israel and dragged to sea like some over large garbage scaw ….
GAIL IS MY RHETORIC MASTER!
GAIL IS MY RHETORIC MASTER!
among other *ahem* dominant roles she plays.
If only Mr. Sheehan would have pulled out years ago…..
Myself, I’m thinking of something along the lines of
<a href=”http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/005139.php” target=”_blank”>
Sure, there’s a gamble to it—but it’s not like the previous strategies were yielding huge dividends.
And it certainly changes the game.
OK, fine. If you want something done right…
Myself, I’m thinking of something along the lines of
this
Sure, there’s a gamble to itâ€â€but it’s not like the previous strategies were yielding huge dividends.
And it certainly changes the game.
Hmmmm.
“Sure, there’s a gamble to itâ€â€but it’s not like the previous strategies were yielding huge dividends.”
Sorry man but Dafydd is wrong. There is no way that Israel is going to suddenly start bombing campaigns in Gaza. At best they could return to directed missile strikes but that’s nothing more than a return to the status quo ante. And a good thing it’s the ante and not my uncle. Badum-bump!
Recognizing that everything is speculation at this point, do you have any particular arguments to support the conclusion that Dafydd is wrong?
Admittedly, I’m not the most unbiased observer—but it seems like a prima facie case that an adjacent state lobbing a couple of missiles over a wall justifies lobbing some serious armaments back.
Hmmm.
“Admittedly, I’m not the most unbiased observerâ€â€but it seems like a prima facie case that an adjacent state lobbing a couple of missiles over a wall justifies lobbing some serious armaments back.”
I used to be of the same opinion. That Israel should unilaterally turn the PA into a it’s own country and then, after a very short grace period, treat it as an independent state worthy of carpet bombing.
The only problem is that ignores the excessive anti-Israel sentiments in the world today. It’s tough enough for Israel as it is now, but can you imagine the impact if Israel were to begin a bombing campaign? Regardless of how justified it is, for a lot of people there will never be enough justification. While we’d all like Israel to tell them to “go to hell”, that’s not likely because Israel cannot depend entirely on America for it’s economy.
And any sort of bombing campaign is useless unless there is a corresponding invasion, and that’ll just return things to status quo ante yet again. The only thing that would offer Israel a possible change in circumstances would be to effect a relatively mild form of ethnic cleansing by pushing all Palestinians to the Jordan and Egypt borders and then building another set of walls.
But that would put Israel right under the spotlight for people looking for an excuse to hate or hurt Israel.
Frankly the only possible positive outcome of this is if various factions within the PA, criminal gangs and independent terrorist groups all contend with each other violently for control over gaza. The only real hope is to subject the residents of Gaza to an excess of such proportions that they, like the residents of Fallujah and elsewhere, will become sick of the whole mess and turn away from terrorism against Israel.
I think the intent behind Gaza isn’t to reduce Israel’s exposure to attacks, that’ll continue as-is regardless of what Israel does. Instead I think it’s a deliberate attempt at turning Gaza into a red-hot cauldron that’ll show the people living there just what it means to live amongst terrorists without any contravening authority. I think it’s also an attempt at subverting terror groups by planting deep cover agents and acquiring valuable intelligence from those groups which set up shop there.
But there’s no way that Israel would win anything by either bombing Gaza or invading it.