Search






Jeff's Amazon.com Wish List

Archive Calendar

November 2024
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930  

Archives

a note to the NFL pundit class

Yes, the league has tailored games to the benefit of those who throw the ball, what with the strictly enforced interference and illegal hands rules, rules against hitting “defenseless receivers,” and rules that protect the quarterback from being hit in all but a small area with all but a small area of the defenders body.

And this would seem to work against a QB like Tim Tebow, who hasn’t yet mastered the NFL passing game — at least, not every throw an NFL QB has to make with the accuracy he has to make it.

But what you geniuses in the hive mind fail to take into account is that, because the NFL has tailored games to benefit passing (and so passing teams), defenses have begun tailoring themselves to defend the pass, paying big money contracts to 190lb corners (Revis, Asomugha, etc), playing lots of base nickel coverage, and using getting smaller and faster at linebacker to take away some of the shorter inside passing lanes. And defenses tailored to defend against the pass with smaller, quicker personnel have a harder time defending the run against power running teams, and a QB who can run the read option and who, should he get to the second level, will run over many corners and safeties, and take on a number of linebackers who are essentially his size.

So while Tebow is learning to pass and read defenses at the NFL level, he is simultaneously able to win because, for now, teams who play him have to spy him and prevent him from running — giving him one on one matchups, which his bigger receivers (Decker and Demaryius Thomas) are beginning to win down field for big gains.

This in turn prevents teams from stacking the box, which once again helps the power running game and makes the read option so dangerous.

Can Tebow succeed long-term? Of course. He’ll have to get better as an NFL passer, but that he can do, given his work ethic, his intelligence, and the coaching available to him. In the meantime, because he can escape the pocket and run the option so well, he can essentially either enjoy a man advantage in the running game, or else look for big plays down the field, depending on how a defense plays him.

So please. Stop with the canned analysis. If the league is built around passing, defenses are built around stopping the pass. Advantage: Denver.

54 Replies to “a note to the NFL pundit class”

  1. cranky-d says:

    Denver is in first place. That means they have a good team. I wish the Chargers were in first place instead, but they have been sucking along. So be it.

    No other argument matters, really. Only winning matters.

    Also, though Tebow seemed to get to be the starting quarterback due to public pressure, I think he has done a great job of making it work for him. The team seems to love him, which is extremely important.

    I know what it’s like to have a team that the sports media doesn’t like for whatever reason. No matter what, your team cannot get the love it deserves.

  2. cranky-d says:

    First in their division, of course. However, winning your division means you go to the playoffs, so winning your division matters more than anything else.

  3. Sears Poncho says:

    Yep, If I might add, I don’t remember all this fuss about delivery when Randall Cunningham was in the league. As much fun (and by fun, I mean gut wrenching) as it was to watch him run the broken play offense, the man looked like a lawn chair unfolding when throwing the ball down the field. And to be a bit more contemporary with regards to Tim Tebow, who hasn’t yet mastered the NFL passing game — at least, not every throw an NFL QB has to make with the accuracy he has to make it. Anyone want to show me a clip of Donovan McNabb throwing the dump pass to the running back with touch, that didn’t end up at the intended receiver’s feet?

    I say this, sadly, as an Eagles fan, so I guess I’m twice denounced……..

  4. cranky-d says:

    McNabb is now, of course, on the Vikings. He did such a fine job that we’re using the rookie instead.

  5. Jeff G. says:

    McNabb was released. He’s on the free agent wire, and no takers thus far.

  6. Ernst Schreiber says:

    Until Tim Tebow knocks up his stripper girlfriend and then pays her to make “the problem” go away, the sports media will never really love him.

  7. Jeff G. says:

    Sears —

    I’ve criticized McNabb as a passer for years. But only because he’s Black.

    I practiced on Charlie Batch. Shhhh!

  8. Jeff G. says:

    What’s interesting though, is how none of these milky white sports reporters ever seem to mind all the Jesus-thankery coming from Black athletes.

    Brian Dawkins is very vocal about his faith. On the same team. But that’s considered more a strength than something icky and preachy and annoying.

    I wonder why that is?

  9. Ernst Schreiber says:

    The way they want to love him I mean.

  10. leigh says:

    Ernst, if he has her shot in a drive-by does that count or is that only for wide-receivers?

  11. cranky-d says:

    I did not know McNabb was released. You can see how much attention I pay to these things. I was wondering why they were making noises about him (and, of course, Farve) going to Chicago.

  12. cranky-d says:

    Favre, not Farve. Sheesh.

  13. leigh says:

    Is Favre taking his walker with him?

  14. leigh says:

    It’s because they’re Negroes, Jeff. Darkies are like that.

  15. NoisyAndrew says:

    Of course, it should be pointed out that not ever team will give the game away as pleasantly as the Vikings did.

    Did you know they Vikes have the #6 rush offense in the NFL?

    They don’t either.

  16. Randall Cunningahm did get better as a passer.

    Also, it is good to remember that Randall Cunningham, Carson Palmer, and many others got their knees destroyed in the pocket, not running. Michael Vick got injured in the pocket. Tony Romo got his ribs broke in the pocket. Jay Cutler got hurt in the pocket. Yada, yada, yada… allowing big DEs and LBs to get a running start at a stationary target is at least as bad for the target if not worse than when those linebackers or smaller DBs have to hit him on the move. Ask Jay Culter or Ben Roethlisberger about the theory that the physical abuse only comes when you get sacked.

    Michael Vick has elite WR speed, but he’s not real big. Randall was big and fast, but not as big as Tebow as I recall. Culpepper was bigger, but not as fast. Big Ben is taller, but not “bigger” and definitely not as fast.

    Tebow is not as bad a passer as some make out. He does make some horrendous throws, but the irony is those throws tend to be so bad they can’t be picked off. That combined with him not making stupid throws more than makes up for what a, say, Ryan Fitzpatrick, brings to the table in more accurate NFL throws. Also, Tebow’s receivers (Decker and Thomas) are talented but still inexperienced. Next year is year three for those two, so watch out.

  17. Ernst Schreiber says:

    It’s harder to play #6 rush offense without Peterson.

  18. Tman says:

    Tebow definitely has defeated his critics based on his record. And you can definitely credit two or three of the recent wins due directly to Tebow’s actions. But speaking as a Titans fan, we kind of saw this movie before with Vince Young. I’m not saying the situation is EXACTLY the same but the similarities are extensive. Both Tim and Vince are terrible passers with extreme accuracy issues, motion issues, footwork issues, etc. Both throw surprisingly well on the run, but have problems when placed in the pocket to read defenses. Both came in during the season when the team was on the verge of being eliminated before December. Both were able to neutralize defenses with their running threat and won games with walk off 40+ yard runs (Vince had a 50 yard walk off in OT against the Texans).

    With Vince, defenses eventually figured out that if they kept him in the pocket he would throw the ball away enough so that they could load the box to stop Chris Johnson. I’m not saying defenses are going to find the same strategy successful with Tebow, but it took a full year before teams were done adjusting to Vince. I don’t think Tebow has seen a defense that has truly adjusted to his style yet.

    But hey, enjoy the ride-I sure did with VY.

  19. Vince Young is a very interesting case and someone with a much better win-loss record than his reputation would suggest, kind of like somebody else now that I mention it. Vince may have better physical tools, but has a pretty bad reputation when it comes to working at his craft.

  20. Jeff G. says:

    Gerhart was actually quite good against the Broncos, Ernst. Had Peterson been playing, they would have geared up for him specifically. They’ve had success stopping running attacks when they’ve game planned around them.

    And of course, having Von Miller out helped Ponder quite a bit. Our defensive backfield got banged up, and not having that passrush threat allowed the Vikings to key on Dumervil and give Ponder time to make throws.

  21. bh says:

    Think I saw somewhere that the Patriots/Broncos game coming up is actually being fought over with the flex scheduling.

    Should give us a pretty good feel for where they are right now. Doubt they’ll win but if they make a game of it, that’ll mean something.

  22. Jeff G. says:

    Tman —

    VY didn’t work hard. He just wanted to be good. And then relied on his naturally ability. Tebow, from all accounts, is the opposite. Look at the last game against the Vikes and you’ll see his improved footwork. And it’s that — and being able to pre-read defenses a bit better as he’s progressing — that have settled him down and allowed him to be more accurate from the pocket.

    I’m not some Tebow fanatic. But I also think he can turn into a decent passer — and if he does, he’s got everything else going for him. Not having OTA’s and an abbreviated training camp hurt him early. But he threw pretty well at the end of last season in his 3 games, including a 300 yard day.

    My point in the post is that yes, defenses haven’t yet adjusted. But then, Tebow’s not yet finished growing as a passer, either. Young looks the same as he always has throwing the ball.

  23. Shtetl G says:

    Jeff,

    I don’t know if you remember the first play of the Jets game. Tebow is running the option and he pitches the ball and Bart Scott blows him up. Knocks him on his ass. That, historically, has always been the medicine for the option in the college game. The Jets did that once and stopped and then Tebow ran down their asses in the fourth quarter. You are right that Tebow is exposing the new, kinder nfl but defensive Coordinators figure things out and guys are really really big in the NFL. I’m worried about Tebow’s health if Denver keeps running the option. That said the man is clutch and its fun seeing the option run in the pros.

    Good call about how every black player can be religious but god forbid if Tebow or Kurt Warner mentions Jesus once. I imagine it must be very liberating for reporters to have at least one player they can criticize for being religious.

  24. Tman says:

    Jeff-

    I think that’s the biggest difference between Tim and Vince. Vince had zero work ethic and was never pushed hard enough to grow the hell up and do the work that was needed to shape him in to a pro QB. What was even more disappointing is that supposedly McNair had mentored Vince early on through High School and College, but Vince never displayed a single ounce of the toughness and grit that was McNair’s forte.

    Tebow is completely different in this regard, in both the toughness and learning potential factors. I’ve watched Tebow take serious abuse in the SEC for years, and he had Elway-like resiliency. And I can tell you that his work ethic will not be in question either.

    He has some crazy potential if he puts in the time.

  25. Jeff G. says:

    Shtetl —

    I do remember that play. The Jets decided to play the option with their jumbo package, using bigger linebackers and concentrating on stopping the run. Tebow’s winning drive came when they went with an extra D-back.

    But at that time, the Broncos still didn’t have enough confidence in Tebow to let him throw much. SD later on didn’t rush him at all, daring him to throw. He made the passes he needed to to beat them. Against Minnesota, the game plan should have ALWAYS been to attack that secondary. But Fox is quite conservative. And he waited to do it until it was (almost) too late. He was counting on his defense to hold up.

    Luckily, Tebow was good enough to look off the safeties in cover 2 and Demaryius Thomas — taken before both Tebow and Dez Bryant in the draft — beat the corner badly.

    The myth is that the Broncos are running a gimmicky read option offense. Truth is, they only use it part of the time (maybe 6 times against Minnesota, who used it twice against us that I can think of). The entire second half was essentially a traditional pro set with play action –with maybe one or two read option plays thrown in to keep the defense honest and playing assignment contain.

  26. NoisyAndrew says:

    It’s harder to play #6 rush offense without Peterson.

    Toby Gerhard is doing just fine. He had 91 rushing yards against Denver. Harvin had a handful, too.

    Why they decided to pass three times in the red zone with three minutes left is beyond me. It’s hard to tell whether the Vikings secondary or their coaches are the biggest problem.

  27. Ernst Schreiber says:

    1145 hrs local standard time: General Short’s headquarters recieves the alert sent by General Marshall four hours earlier.

  28. Ernst Schreiber says:

    It’s the coaches. And I suspect it has been for a long time.

  29. Shtetl G says:

    I obviously don’t watch as much Denver football as you but ball control offense with a killer defense that you can keep fresh by playing ball control offense has helped a lot of teams win a lot of games over the years. The one thing I do remember from Tebow’s college days is his long throwing motion. I would watch him wind up and I would tell a friend “man that is a long throwing motion” and then he would he would release the ball. A lot of the football pundits say that it is really hard to fix the way you have thrown a football all your life. But Tebow certainly has a knack for proving these pundits wrong.

    One thing that I find ludicrous is the idea that Tebow can’t play in the pros. If this quarterback thing doesn’t pan out, he would be one of dopest hybrid hback/fullback/tight ends ever and would be a beast around the goal line. You could even run some wildcat. One way or another, barring injuries, Tebow should have a long professional career.

  30. bh says:

    Think I’ve recommended the Advanced NFL Stats page here before. This post got me looking at the quarterbacks over there and an interesting stat popped out at me. Some of the negatives like comp % and positives like low interceptions are pretty widely spoken about already but it’s interesting that he leads all quarterbacks with the percentage of times he attempts a pass > 15 yards.

    Wonder if that’s a piece of the puzzle. Makes sense to me anyways. Keep those safeties out of the run game.

  31. Jeff G. says:

    Tebow’s throwing motion is long. But the number of times that’s hurt him specifically I can’t recall. It means he has to anticipate a tick faster — but other than that, it’s a problem offset by his mobility and his knack for finding a space from which to throw. This past weekend, he actually stiffarmed off a linebacker to make a clean throw. It was pretty cool to see.

  32. dicentra says:

    BYU used to have the best passing game in the country. Then LaVell Edwards retired. Jim McMann and Steve Young being some of the products of that machine.

    That’s the entire sum of my knowledge on this topic. I hope you enjoyed it.

  33. Ernst Schreiber says:

    1300 hrs local standard time: The Japanese strike force turns onto a homeward heading.

  34. The rules specifically allow for defenses to hit QBs executing fakes which is why most NFL QBs just stand there once they hand the ball off rather than carry through on a fake and take another hit. Just like iafter interceptions, QBs can only be blocked if they are attempting to make a tackle. If they walk away they are not fair game.

    Gregg Easterbrook has been noting for several weeks now in TMQ that Denver is almost playing a high school offense against their opponents (run, run, run, run, run, throw deep) and the opponents still aren’t effective at stopping it for 60 minutes.

  35. sdferr says:

    “Tebow’s throwing motion is long.”

    We were told by the self-vaunting experts that Tim’s motion would certainly result in a plethora of fumbles, due to rushers knocking the ball out of his hand when it is down around his waist. And this has happened how many times now? Hardly at all, if at all, so far as I can tell.

  36. One I know came when he was scrambling, not when he was trying to throw. Don’t know about the other one.

    He has thrown one interception. That’s the amazing thing. When he misses he misses so badly that the balls don’t get tipped in the air or DBs can’t undercut the routes. He is usually way short if it is in play or way long on some of his sideline throws.

  37. sdferr says:

    He didn’t throw many ints at Florida either charles, so it just may be a thing.

  38. BT says:

    All I know is Tim Tebow is a big crybaby. At least he was at Florida. Go Dawgs.

    Hope he does well in Denver.

  39. Squid says:

    And he waited to do it until it was (almost) too late.

    It’s never too late to beat the Vikes. If they ain’t leading by 36 in the 4th, they ain’t gonna win.

  40. LTC John says:

    Tebow may have a bit of difficulty with Urlacher, Briggs and Company – but nothing the Denver “D” can’t answer, in spades. I think Denver will win a low-ish scoring game.

    God help Caleb Haney. Does Denver have an advanced sports medicine trauma center near the stadium?

  41. The best thing about Caleb Hanie is it makes some more people appreciate just how good Jay Cutler is, being able to succeed with a porous offensive line and substandard WRs. Hmmm, wonder if we could trade Cutler for Tebow and a couple high draft picks?

  42. deadrody says:

    Ugh. Tim Tebow the Christian QB that will save us all. The conservative blog meme that WILL.NOT.DIE.

    The option cannot and will not work in the NFL on any kind of sustained basis. Eventually the QB will get hit and injured. Its just that simple. Nobody seems to care that his big win streak has come against mostly horrendous teams.

    What is annoying about the blog meme on this is, unless you were already a Tebow fan, all this grousing about his super awesomeness is only going to make more people root against him. I know that’s how I feel at this point. The Broncos are fairly likely to make the playoffs at this point and virtually every potential opponent is vastly superior to any team they’ve played lately. And you will get a preview of that next week when they get slaughtered in New England.

    I relish the thought of seeing the Pittsburg or Baltimore defense pummel Tebow into submission.

  43. Pablo says:

    And you will get a preview of that next week when they get slaughtered in New England.

    Hey, that’s not true! They’re gonna get slaughtered at home.

  44. Jeff G. says:

    Good lord, deadrody.

    This is just a silly response. I haven’t said the option will work long term as a primary schema for the offense. I’ve said it’s working now because defenses are built to stopping passing attacks, because the NFL rules favor passing. And that while it’s working, Tebow can work on his passing. Making the question of his longterm viability as a QB in this league moot.

    Instead of getting OUTRAGED at some widespread meme you wish to dispel, try reading MY post first.

    Christ.

  45. Blake says:

    deadrody. Do you have any substantive criticisms of Tim Tebow or just assertions?

    Which bothers you more, deadrody? Tebow’s playing or Tebow’s Christianity? From what you wrote, it appears you have animosity toward both.

    All quarterbacks get hit, deadrody. Or did you miss Denver pounding Ponder into the ground last Sunday?

    By the way, New England has to travel to Denver.

  46. sdferr says:

    Spikes will be looking forward to the trip. Hope he’s got healthy by then.

  47. Jeff G. says:

    The KC defense? The Jets defense? Miami’s defense? SD’s defense? These are supposedly bad?

    I’m just glad we’ve been winning while our QB is learning to be an NFL QB — albeit one that we’re allowing to use what skills he has right now to win games right now while we work to sharpen the parts of his game that need improvement.

    Tebow’s faith is his. How he’s behaved and performed here is what matters to me, and he’s led by example and motivated his teammates. That counts for something.

    Will it last? I can’t say. But then, I’m not the one writing daily dissertations on him, either.

  48. Jeff G. says:

    Spikes will be looking forward to the trip. Hope he’s got healthy by then.

    Heh. I think Tebow had a better 40 time at the Combine. But Spikes does have 20 pounds on him…

    Here’s what I have to say to Belichick: chip Von Miller on every play. And hope that your left tackle has a good day against Dumervil.

    I think (I HOPE) the Broncos press Welker and have a defensive end drop off the line and hit him within five yards every time he runs a route.

    The problem the Broncos will have is with the two TE’s. I wouldnt be surprised, in fact, to see Champ Bailey on Aaron Hernandez, and then bracket coverage on Gronkowski. Branch, Welker, and Green-Ellis will have to beat us — and if we can’t get pressure on Brady, they likely will.

    If.

  49. cranky-d says:

    I am rooting for the Broncos in the next game. However, that’s because when the Patriots lose, the Baby Jesus smiles.

    And so do I.

  50. NoisyAndrew says:

    It’s never too late to beat the Vikes. If they ain’t leading by 36 in the 4th, they ain’t gonna win.

    Yup.

  51. Danger says:

    “I relish the thought of seeing the Pittsburg or Baltimore defense pummel Tebow into submission.”

    You think Tebow is worried about a pummelling?

    He’s like the Honey badger, only Tim Tebow doesn’t give a…
    Darn!

Comments are closed.