Search






Jeff's Amazon.com Wish List

Archive Calendar

November 2024
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930  

Archives

Making wishes come true [guest post by motionview]

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag….Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.

I can’t help but think Mr. Lichtman is shading his assessment in order to build the expectation that Obama will win. His analysis has Obama holding 9 keys. 4 of those are either too soon to say or wishcasting, leaving Obama 5 keys. “The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Obama is going to lose. Mr Lichtman the academic would tell you so . Mr Lichtman the political hack is pissing on your leg and tellng you it’s raining.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” Just moronic. Obama loses this one.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. Probably confusing policy change with popular policy change. He lost the House due to one policy change, Obamacare, and the stimulus is widely regarded as a complete failure, $1T pissed down the tubes. Obama loses.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. Wait till next summer. Tossup for now.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.This should read “untainted by reporting of major scandal”. The MBM has successfully held the line on Fast & Furious, Pigford, NEA, Black Panther voter intimidation, etc., and will probably continue to do so .

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. Between now and 2012, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Iran, none will show up as a major failure? Odds are against it, but tossup for now.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Killing Obama was great. It is not the kind of success that counts for this key: Americans want to see problem solved, soldiers home. Obama loses.

Your mother would be very proud Mr. Lichtman. After all, the sacrifice of your intellectual credentials, your life’s work, is a small price to pay to keep a progressive in office.

12 Replies to “Making wishes come true [guest post by motionview]”

  1. ThomasD says:

    In his mind how can Obama lose? Mr. Lichtman doesn’t know anyone who didn’t vote for him last time, why would this time be any different?

  2. happyfeet says:

    killing Osama was the intelligence failure of the century

    truly a failshit marvel

  3. MissFixit says:

    I saw this and laughed when I got to no social unrest and major policy changes. This is kinda like when my older son crows about his good behavior the day before, and the younger replies “that’s because you were asleep all afternoon.”

  4. Pablo says:

    Does getting an AA+ give President Downgrade a key?

  5. motionview says:

    BTW if you are not getting enough DOOM from Monty take a look at that “moronic” link above, or this.

  6. motionview says:

    Don Surbur picks up that Mr. Lichtman called it for Al Gore eight months out from the election. So not just shading his assessment, but lying through his teeth too. Should have known.

  7. Spiny Norman says:

    If you watch MSNBC, you’d think Barry still had a 79% approval rating. They can’t understand why any Republican would throw away his political career by going up against the Obama Juggernaut™…

    It’s an alternate universe.

  8. Dave in SoCal says:

    As noted in the Wiki article for “The Keys”, his forecasts are based on the “popular” vote as opposed to electoral vote:

    The Keys retrospectively account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008. The Keys model predicted George W. Bush’s reelection in April 2003, nearly a year before any other scientific model. In the late spring of 1988, the Keys predicted George H. W. Bush’s victory when he trailed Democrat Michael Dukakis by 17 percentage points in the polls. It predicted Bill Clinton’s win in the complex three-candidate election of 1992. In six elections, the keys have predicted three Republican and three Democratic victories in the popular vote.

    In the contested election of 2000, the Keys correctly forecast Democratic candidate Al Gore’s popular-vote victory.

    As ManBearPig demonstrated in 2000, winning the popular vote doesn’t necessarily give you a victory.

  9. Dave in SoCal says:

    And regarding “social unrest”, I don’t think we necessarily have to wait for next summer, I think we’re seeing it manifested now as the Tea Party movement. Although I agree that things will likely come to a head next year in the months leading up to the election as the Democrats get increasingly desperate to prop up their failed Messiah.

    People unhappy with Obama’s (lack of) performance and job/economy-killing actions in office are getting mighty tired of being repeatedly called “terrorists” and “racists” for their views and it will only get worse as the rhetoric undoubtedly gets worse.

  10. DarthLevin says:

    He missed one key: the space aliens are coming to exterminate us planet-killing gaia-h8rs, i gotta figure that factors as a negative.

  11. Dave in SoCal says:

    Professor Lichtman is singing his heart out to you, Barry. Enjoy it while you can before reality intrudes.

  12. McGehee says:

    In the contested election of 2000, the Keys correctly forecast Democratic candidate Al Gore’s popular-vote victory.

    When was the 50-states-plus-DC hand recount staged to verify this alleged Algore popular-vote victory?

Comments are closed.