1. Aaron Curry. Best player in the draft. Lions could go with Stafford, but I think they’ll throw a curveball here. OUTLAW!
2. Jason Smith. Rams need a left tackle. This guy is a can’t miss. They briefly consider Stafford, but then realize that he’ll be useless without someone protecting his blind side.
3. Brian Orakpo. With Curry gone — and Cassel signed — the Chiefs fill a need at DE. Orakpo is a stud. Eugene Monroe is also a possibility here. Leaves Bj Raji on the board.
4. Mark Sanchez. Seattle ranks Sanchez higher than Stafford. They prove it here.
5. Michael Crabtree. The Browns are looking to trade B. Edwards. If they can pull it off, Crabtree goes here. If not, they’ll look for an DE/OLB who can rush the QB. Aaron Maybin?
6. Eugene Monroe. Somebody has to protect Carson Palmer. Andre Smith could go here as well, but Monroe has generally been ranked higher.
7. Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders should choose BJ Raji here. I would. But if Al Davis is still running the team, they take a play maker in Maclin.
8. With Tory Holt signed, the Jags have fallen into a great spot. Matthew Stafford, possibly the best QB in the draft, falls to 8. Do the Broncos trade up to get him? Doubtful.
9. BJ Raji. No chance he gets past Green Bay. The Broncos weep.
10. Aaron Maybin. The 49ers pick up an OLB and then try to resurrect the career of Alex Smith.
11. Andre Smith. Buffalo replaces Jason Peters. Smith has a huge upside.
12. With Raji gone, the Broncos take a run stuffer in Tyson Jackson. If Maybin falls, the Broncos take him and hope Jackson is there at 18.
13. Michael Oher. Washington takes the last of the 1st round-worthy OLs.
14. Beanie Wells. Second best running back in the draft, but a perfect complement to Reggie Bush.
15. Malcolm Jenkins. DE addressed through free agency, the Texans shore up the secondary. They could go Vontae Davis here, but questions about his off-the-field behavior might be enough to convince them to stay away.
16. Knowshon Moreno. Sproles is not an every down back. LT is now an injury concern. The Chargers could grab Everette Brown or Rey Maualuga here, but they’ll find it hard to pass on Moreno.
17. Josh Freeman. The Jets didn’t trade up for Sanchez, but they are happy to get Freeman here. Time will tell, but Freeman’s upside is huge.
18. Everette Brown. The Broncos could try Peria Jerry here — and they could go with Brian Cushing or Clay Matthews Jr — but Brown is the best player left and could convert to a great OLB in the 3-4. Me? I’d probably take Rey Maualuga, because then I could pretend we were the Steelers.
19. Michael Johnson. Tampa likes his potential. I think he’s overrated. If they smarten up, they take Peria Jerry here.
20. Having surprised everyone by taking Curry with the first pick, the Lions follow up with the best TE in the draft, Brandon Pettigrew. The Eagles, who wanted Moreno and Pettigrew, go back to the drawing board.
21. Donald Brown. The Eagles take a running back who isn’t Moreno.
22. Robert Ayers. The Vikings could go for somebody like OT William Beatty or Eben Britton, but Ayers has too much upside.
23. Brian Cushing. Good pick for the Patriots here, with Maybin gone. Larry English and Clay Matthews Jr also possibles here.
24. Larry English. Clay Matthews Jr could also go here, as could somebody like Vontae Davis. The Falcons could also trade this pick to the Broncos for Scheffler. That’d make me happy, as the Broncos’ need on defense is so strong that we could use this spot to grab somebody like Rey Maulalalalaia, or whatever his name is.
25. Peria Jerry. Parcels thinks about Brace. Takes the higher rated player and determines to fatten him up.
26. Hakeem Nicks or Heyward-Bey could go here — after all, the Ravens need somebody with some speed to take advantage of Flacco’s big arm — but with Rey Maualuga still on the board, the Ravens can’t pass him up.
27. Ziggy Hood. The Colts need a DT, and the Broncos need for Brace to hang around until the mid-40s. So the Colts do what I want them to do.
28. Eben Britton, OT. Best of the rest here.
29. Hakeem Nicks. The Giants need to replace a receiver who put a bullet in his thigh. With Crabtree and Maclin off the board, they take the surer-handed Hicks over the speedster Heyward-Bey or fan favorite Britt.
30. Vontae Davis. Huge upside. With Freeman gone, it’s next year for a Titans QB. They get the best run-defender from the DB position here. Could easily flip with Malcolm Jenkins at 15.
31. With Boldin wanting a trade, the Cardinals hope to get the picks back to take a RB and a WR. Here, they go for Shonn Greene — though Heyward-Bey is also an option.
32. Darius Butler. This draft is short on good secondary players. They could also go with Kenny Britt here or the last of the stud linebackers, like Matthews Jr, Baldwin, or Laurinaitis (ILB).
That’s my best guess. Your thoughts?
I’d go with Britt at 29 to make the first round an amazing 25% New Jersey boys.
There is no way the Lions don’t take Stafford. Schwartz, former Titans DC and new Lions head coach knows just as well as anyone that he can find defensive players at other spots in the draft. If they don’t get a project QB to build a franchise around they will remain the laughing stock of the league.
The Titans pick is a good one, we need a replacement for Haynesworth, although that really isn’t completely possible as Haynesworth is one of a kind.
You really think Freeman has that much upside? I would think that the Broncos would want him enough to give up some picks, of which they currently now hold a ton.
Huge upside OUTLAW!
I pick Knowshon Moreno. Because of the mixed ancestry. OUTCAST!
because then I could pretend we were the Steelers.
They play that game in Colorado too? And here I thought it was just an Ohio thing!
There’s a couple ways the Browns could go at 5. I’d love for Curry to fall that far, but there’s no way he makes it past K.C. so that’s out. There’s a lot of buzz about Crabtree – I don’t know that I see it but we’ll need some sort of weapon (assuming Edwards gets traded) unless Syndric Steptoe as your #1 receiver sounds like a viable plan.
Speaking of offense: if we’re really lucky, we’ll settle the QB situation by choosing to move a guy who’s never been given a legitimate shot to start for a guy with one flukey-good year against little competition (who finished badly down the stretch, I might add).
Personally I’d be fine with either Orapko or Maybin, Maybin for preference as he’s quicker off the edge.
All the conventional wisdom has Stafford at 1. I guess if I was going to start from that premise, there was no reason to do yet another mock.
I don’t think I’ve seen any mocks that have Curry at 1. So I thought I’d shake things up a bit.
Re: Freeman. The Jets have the need. The Broncos don’t (Orton can do well with with our offense). The Broncos will try to get somebody like Harrell or Bomar. Bomar could be the steal of the draft, in fact.
Maybin is who Cleveland takes in my mock if they can’t unload Edwards.
If the 9th pick goes like that, I’m psyched. Right now a ballerina could run for 200 against us.
Jeff,
If Stafford doesn’t go to Detroit, do you think anyone trades up for him to take your Jags pick? I’m not sure the Jags can afford to skip on defense with this pick. Their secondary was a joke last year.
Sounds about right for the Rams. Although some people here were actually making Stafford noises a while back, with all the line problems we’ve had the last few years, most folks here would scream bloody murder if the Rams passed on Smith.
My guess is that the Eagles will fuck up another draft, addressing none of the major needs of the team.
Tman —
I don’t think the Jags are sold on DG. And given that they can get Stafford at far less than $35-40 mil (in my scenario), it’s a good deal – especially in a draft where the top secondary talent ain’t necessary future Pro-Bowl material.
That said, the Redskins aren’t high on Campbell, so they are a possibility, I would think.
I don’t see Denver trading up for anyone other than Raji. And I think they’ll hope he falls, or else try for Brace or maybe take Jerry or Hood.
As an Illini fan, I expect Davis to go much higher.
It’s his off the field stuff that has people leery, JD.
But yeah, he could go much higher — particularly now that his drug test question has been answered.
I hope to see some clever team do a reverse Deion and turn Percy Harvin into a cornerback, then let him play a smattering few gigs at offense now and then.
He’s a definite wild card. I’d like to see the Broncos take him, in fact, because we could use a receiver and a good return man. He’d have to fall to mid-40s though.
Beanie Wells won’t make it through training camp without a season ending injury.
As a Titans fan, I’d like to see a good cut corner. Alphonso Smith (WF) or D.J Moore (Vanderbilt – because we’re still sorry we didn’t take Cutler instead of VY a few drafts back.) Vontae Davis isn’t as fast as Moore off the line, and Smith is a bit short. Moore, though, is a junior; that’s a problem for an organization that needs some maturity. But I’m calling D.J. Moore, unless an unbelievably better pick falls to 30.
Some good work here — big props to you! All the talk here in Houston is that the Texans will trade down a few spots (to a team that really wants Freeman before the Jets can take him) and go with a USC linebacker to play outside, since only one of their linebackers could’ve hoped to crack USC’s lineup last year. Clay Matthews was an early favorite (Oiler legend Bruce’s nephew), but Cushing and even Maualuga (if DeMeco Ryans is deemed able to play outside) are both seen as possibilities. Your pick, Jenkins, is also being discussed to play CB for a couple years and transitioned to free safety.
Agreed that Britt will go before Nicks, probably to the G-men.
Moreno should go before Stafford. Nothing against Stafford, with time and work he will make a very serviceable NFL QB, but he’s no Matt Ryan. And Moreno is ready to play and carry the ball two hundred and fifty times right now. He can catch it too.
And yeah, Stafford is maybe a hair better than Sanchez, but I don’t think either of them is ready to star now.
BBR —
If the Texans want a linebacker, one will be available. Very deep draft in that area. Broncos could take Matthews or Cushing or RM or English or Maybin, depending on how things play out in front of them.
I have them taking Jackson and Brown only because I started off with an unlikely scenario, causing a shakeup in the draft order.
Some here in Denver would have us taking Rey. Not a bad idea, if Dumervil and Moss can be transitioned to OLB. It will depend on what McDaniels hopes to do with those guys.
Look for a Scheffler trade, as well. Could we get yet another pick or two? Stay tuned.
With my Colts not re-signing Rhodes, I wonder if they are seeing a bargain @ RB late in the 1st round.
That would be cool. So long as they steer clear of Ron Brace, it’s all good, JD.
Sorry Jeff, I really just don’t give a shit about any of this. Who are these guys?
Jeff G – I have rarely heard his name amongst the people in the conversation for the Colts pick, FWIW. Having said that, Poulian rarely picks from amongst the common wisdom.
Football players, MikeD. And there’s no penalty for not giving a shit.
For my part, I’m reacting to the fact we traded away our quarterback, so the draft is a big deal to Denver football fans this year. Looking forward to the eventual return of the Orange Crush.
phwew!
FTFY
There was a team I used to worship wore Orange, Orange, black and white. The fuckers.
Time to re-post Earl, I think.
Did you see that video Gateway posted a week ago of Obama visibly jerking during a gun salute? Would’a done ole “Flinchy” DeCinces proud.
I’m one of the few Packers fans with a soft spot for the Bears (lived there for over a decade) so, Cutler? He might well be the most talented quarterback they’ve ever had.
If it hurts the Broncs, that’s just gravy. ’98 broke my heart.
I think it helps. It does no good having a “franchise quarterback” who doesn’t want to be here and who doesn’t understand football is a business.
Besides, we can’t win without defense, and his trade gave us 2 extra number 1s and a number 3 — and an underrated starting QB who was hurt by having no talent and playing in a scheme that was entirely built on ball control and defense.
A good draft here goes a long way toward returning the Broncos to prominence.
Maggie: heh. Well, if this pans out, we know what the Denver Post’s headline is likely to be…
I haven’t seen Obama’s draft board yet, but I bet it’s money.
As a die-hard Lions fan (“dying” being almost desirable over the “fan” part) I really really hope the Lions avoid Stafford like the plague at #1. I’ve got nothing against Stafford, and I don’t think he’s a bad player/prospect at all, I’ll explain.
Despite what Draft pundits and most people may thing, the LAST thing the Lions need is a 50/50 pick at #1. The Lions have so many holes on their roster and such a great need for talent, they can’t afford to take a player who’s a project/risk. Stafford is such a pick. Yes, the guy’s got a rocket arm and the physical tools, but you’ll be hard pressed to find a draftnick who will tell you he doesn’t come with a few questions. If the Lions had actual talent on their roster, believe me, I’d be urging them to take a potential QB of the future.
Despite the success of Ryan and Flacco last year, a #1 QB going to the Lions would be a completely different story. Ryan and Flacco both got drafted onto established winning teams with a bruising running game, and a stout defense. The keeps the pressure off the QB and doesn’t force him to win games, only to “manage the offense”. The Lions need to get some consistency to their running game (Kevin Smith has the potential to be a stud), and shore up their defense (with picks like Curry at #1, or Peria Jerry at #20) before they even THINK of taking a risk at QB. Especially for the amount of money that signing a QB at #1 would demand.
I’m guessing the Lions are in the middle of negotiating the best possible contract between Curry (LB), Smith (OT), and Monroe (OT), and keeping Stafford in the loop to generate any last-minute trade offers. Whomever gives them the best deal, they’ll sign. Personally, I’m hoping for Curry or Smith.
Try not to kill the thread, thor. Have something to add? Of substance, I mean?
Yes, Jeff, I do.
Make sure you scratch Yourhighness Morgan from your draft pool. He’s opted to stay in school.
You’re welcome.
Yeah, I actually agree. A good move for Denver given the circumstances, I just prefer Bronco fans seeing the glass half empty. And drowning in the full half.*
Fill in that D-line a bit, get a bit more depth, you’ll start winning again.
*I watched the ’98 Denver/GB Super Bowl in a crowded sports bar in Chicago. My Patriot-fan friend made a point out of telling every person in the place that I was a cheese-eating Packer fan because I had been a dick the previous year. Suffered through having chicken wings and beer cans thrown at me all day, only to watch Elway out-gut us in the end.
Can someone get thor to quit trying to lick me?
Matthew Stafford is from Highland Park High School in Dallas. That indicates his family unapologetically votes straight Republican. I can’t see how that would play well in Motown. I agree, he could slip down for no other reason than partisanship.
Checking the OK State for Zac Robinson’s status I not only found that he’s staying in school but so is Ugo Chinasa, Orie Lemon and Russel Okung.
I really thought Ugo might…
I like the Andre Smith pick for the Bills. He’s from Huffman High School in the hood in Birmingham, Alabama. It’s straight out of Compton and then some. He get’s lost sometimes, but has lots of upside.
Will Block out of Grayson State is a underrated OT that’ll probably move up to a late first rounder.
Undersized LB Lucious Pusey out of Eastern Illinois, Miss. State’s WR Co-Eric Riley, Tennessee’s Jim Bob Cooter, corner Richie Rich out Carolina, Mizzou DT Ziggy Hood, Sen’Derrick Marks out of Auburn, 370-pound Washinton OG Jordan White-Frisbee and I-Perfection Harris out of Georgia Tech are but a few names you probably missed, Jeff. Of course FSU’s Mister Alexander and Sir Darean Adams out of Mich St. probably demand attention as well.
There are rumors here in Redskins land if Sanchez slips to 5th we will trade up to get him. God I hate Dan Snyder.
Expect Jim Bob Cooter to go 3rd round earliest. He never made it as a starter at UT, who desperately needed a go-to QB. A career college backup can’t do much at the pro level, at least not for awhile.
As for the SEC’s top picks, UT’s Robert Ayers may go as high as 13 to the ‘Skins. Georgia’s Stafford will probably go first to the Lions (but really they need to look to replace their owner. Limbaugh would serve ’em well.. ) and Alabama’s Andre Smith I think will land in Cincy.
It really doesn’t matter. My Oakland Raiders will foul up another draft. Maybe they can send JaMarcus Russell to Detroit for the number one pick, and then waste it again.
The Raiders and the Detroit Lions need new owners just like the Redskins. Not like I want to compare my Skins to those two poo poo teams but we do need new ownership.
The Bucs brass are idiots. Assume whatever is the dumbest pick they can make at their draft position, they’ll make it. If Freeman’s available, they’ll take him and we’ll have 5 QBs. I can’t even call this a rebuilding year. I think they compete with the Lions for worst record in the NFL.
Luke McCowan is not a starting quarterback. Obviously, neither is Byron Leftwhich. And they have two other QBs I’ve never heard of. And they raised ticket prices. And the Rays’ bullpen is sucking. And Lightning sucked all season.
Not the best time to be a sports fan in Tampa Bay.
I’ll see your Devil Rays and raise you the Nationals and Wizards.
Being cynical, I’d stay away from Davis – a Pac Man Jones in waiting… [So now that means he will end up being a lock down player, Pro Bowl 8 years of the next 10].
Percy has shown he can catch the ball, but I don’t know that he’s ever played the corner position. He’s certainly got neck-snapping breakaway speed and has pretty amazing maneuverability. No, as cool of an idea as this is, I see Percy as a multipurpose back, who can run with the ball or catch the screen, or (surprise!) break away downfield for something longer.
The problem with Percy is that he’s susceptible to injury. He’s got GREAT potential to be viable in the pros, but keeping him off the injured list is going to be a problem, I think. If he’d stayed uninjured at Florida, he’d have wiped the floor with the record books, with or without Jeff Demps also being on the field.
Demps and Rainey…those guys are unbelievably fast. Demps has got better vision and better moves; Rainey, better breakaway speed. It’s just crazy how they can leave their pursuers in the dust, their jaws resting on the turf like Wile E. Coyote after the Roadrunner has put on a burst of speed.
Eagles need a receiver or a running back, so my guess is they go after Darius Butler. Who can catch one, but can’t bring ’em down.
too many years a Philly fan.
The Bills need a defensive end and a tight end even more than they need an offensive tackle. I say it’s Maybin or Pettigrew in that order. Lately, their draft has been more bust than boom.
“For my part, I’m reacting to the fact we traded away our quarterback, so the draft is a big deal to Denver football fans this year. Looking forward to the eventual return of the Orange Crush.”
I would honestly be shocked if Denver drafted a quarterback in this draft for anything other than a multi-year development project. McDaniels seems pretty happy with Orton and Simms in place, so if he does grab a QB, it would likely be John Parker Wilson out of Alabama, Nate Davis of Ball State, or Chase Patton (Chase Daniel’s backup at Missouri) in the later rounds.
Unless the Donks trade up, no way they get Raji. I think their best option is to get Peria Jerry and James Laurinaitis in the first round and Connor Barwin from Louisville or Ron Brace in the second, if either lasts that long. Jerry has the pass rush ability to be another Rulon Jones; Laurainitis was the most consistent performer at LB in the draft, and he has the same instincts that Gradishar and Chris Spielman did.
Don’t be surprised to see McDaniels draft an O-lineman in the middle rounds either. Hamilton doesn’t fit the scheme, and unless Lichtensteiger breaks out this year, Weigmann and Nalen are on their last legs at center.
Would love to see the Broncs take linebackers here. We’ve heard for years how fast the Denver ‘backers are but does it matter when they all suck? To be fair their D-line hasn’t given them much help, but since Al Wilson’s been gone, their linebackers have been (at best mediocre).
I really feel like they need that Ray Lewis-type backer who puts the fear of God into any back trying to come up the middle (and, yes, I know they’re running a 3-4 but put him (whoever he is) on the strong side) and let him lay some people out.
Glad they finally got rid of Dre Bly. Are any of the corners they brought in any good?
On the offensive side of the ball, does anyone know why coaches from the New England system hate their tight ends?
That’s the favorite ordering in most mocks. But if I went that route this wouldn’t have been fun.
I think the Broncos take a flyer or Rhett Bomar as the project QB if they can get him.
Can you take Jason Campbell off our hands?
Slart, I don’t think Percy has played cornerback, at least I don’t know that he has. I just figure with his speed, his shining intelligence and work ethic, his more than adequate size for the position and his outstanding competitiveness, he can learn and handle the job quickly. (I always think back to the Cowboys drafting Cornell Green, a basketball player, and giving him the opportunity to become an All-Pro cornerback.) It does matter, critically, that he be enthusiastically willing to go along with such a switch and the only way to find that out is to present him with the question. Some guys, and Percy could be one, would simply rather play one side of the ball than the other, even where it could mean that they play less than more. And I wouldn’t hold that against them. As I look at it, it’s a choice they ought to get to make.
As to the “he gets injured” tag, I’ve never known quite what weight to give to such things, preferring as I do to think that every particular on field injury is a unique combination of physical geometries and forces, no one of which I have any necessary reason to believe will be repeated for one player rather than another. It’s a different matter when an injury results in permanent damage to a player’s body, say for instance a blown knee that leaves the guy a half step or full step slower than pre-injury and thus less valuable where speed or quickness was his primary asset. But I don’t think Percy has lost any of his speed and skills to injury, or haven’t heard that he has anyhow. What the deal was with his sinus condition and headaches, I don’t know, though I think that is something a careful team will want to look into before drafting him.
The Browns will draft Tim Couch…again. There is no hope for my Browns. But excellent draft writeup, Jeff.
Pretty good, but Ravens take Heyward-Bey over Maualuga because he’s a local boy and that plays well in Baltimore.
Thanks Jeff. Since I find Mel Kiper disturbing and creepy, and yet am very interested in the draft, your mock draft was most welcome.
Re: #13 Michael Oher — He was the subject of Michael Lewis’ book The Blind Side. It’s a great read capturing a remarkable human interest story as well as fascinating analysis of the evolution of the left tackle position to one of the highest paid positions in professional football.
ORANGE CRUSH!
Personally I would like to see Denver use that 3rd rounder they stole from Chicago and couple that up with the 12th pick in the first and send it off to Jacksonville for the 8th pick. BJ Raji is the type of guy who will live in the middle taking double teams for years to come and we can get him at 8.
If they decide to go with a QB I hope its Freeman and not the other two. I would prefere they wait until next year to address the QB position as Orton is at least servicable, although I think he will exceed expectations. People seem to forget his play at the end of the season last year.
I was never really excited about Cutler. He kind of reminded me of Jeff George without the dazzling good looks.
I hope we got this sorted out.
Um, dammit, didn’t see this coming. Even though I don’t view it as a big deal, evidently the Pro people do. frak.
Looks like the Lions will take Stafford. If Seattle doesn’t take Sanchez, the Jets and Washington will both try to move up and take him at 8, is my best guess. New York has more to offer in terms of picks, but a Jason Campbell being dangled might help the Redskins.
considering recent behavior of Denver Mgmnt I figure they’11 trade all their draft picks for a cherry SnowCone.
As to cutler not understanding fball is a business, when you see your job description at your business in the newspaper wantads it’s time to start shopping the resume around especially if you’re one of the tops in your field.
Ok, so the first round is done. Setting aside the order of picks, trade shuffling, etc., how do you think your Broncos have done taking Moreno and Ayers, particularly in light of the needs you felt they had pre-draft and the players available who were foregone to take these?
I think overall they did very well in this draft. People forget that a running game controls the clock and helps the defense. We also improved our special teams immensely.
The undrafted guys we brought in look good, particularly Baker, who used to be at Penn State and was projected to go in the 4th round. We may have found our NT and a couple of DL on the cheap.