As almost always seems to happen after writing a post about taking pre-election polling with the requisite amount of salt, a poll arrives that raises a relatively undiscussed topic.
In this case, some are interested in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that Barack Obama’s six point lead (unchanged from the same poll last month) expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix.
OpenLeft’s Chris Bowers — an Obama backer — notes this is a consistent pattern in the more limited number of polls asking about Nader and Barr. Indeed, while Pollster.com currently shows the two-way race narrowing, the four-way race shows an ever-widening lead for Obama. However, Bowers does not see this as necessarily good news for Camp Obama:
The explanation for this is probably quite simple. Most people who indicate they will support a third-party candidate in a poll don’t actually end up voting for that third-party candidate. In this case, it so happens that many people who are not very happy with either candidate, but who prefer McCain to Obama, are indicating that they will vote for a third-party on a national trial heat.
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…[I]t won’t be easy for Obama to peel off those soft supporters. In fact, it might not even be possible. If people are willing to support candidates with such a wide range of personalities and ideologies before Obama–Nader, McCain, and Barr–then these voters are solidly anti-Obama. The best strategy might actually be to keep these voters home, or push them into third-party camps, through some means.
Bowers admits he has no strategy for dealing with this voter bloc. Camp Obama may not need one. The NBC/WSJ poll still shows an “enthusiasm gap” that suggests these voters may sit at home on their own, if current trends continue.
(h/t Memeorandum.)
also, pollsters have no way of sampling the no-land-line demographic do they Karl?
sampling bias, do u think?
They can weight for it. Remember it skews younger and it skews ethnic and it skews itself to less significance with respect to likely voter models.
That’s not what Pew says.
In the current poll, cell-only respondents are significantly more likely than either the landline respondents or the cell-mostly respondents to support Barack Obama and Democratic candidates for Congress this fall. They also are substantially less likely to be registered to vote and – among registered voters – somewhat less likely to say they are absolutely certain they will vote. Despite their demographic differences with the landline respondents, the cell-mostly group is not significantly different from the landline respondents politically.
Yet as Pew has found in the past, when data from landline and cell phone samples are combined and weighted to match the U.S. population on key demographic measures, the results are similar to those from the landline survey alone.
Keep dreaming, liebot.
The current rule of thumb is 15% of pop is cell-only. But that rises among hispanics and 18-24s and the like. These aren’t populations where there is unmeasured reservoirs of Baracky love. You weight your sample as usual and you’re still accurate, especially cause these are less likely to vote people anyways.
Oh. What Pew says.
I’m all about the four-ways.
Eh. Four-ways seem kinda cop-outish to me. I mean, I can see a three-way, and five-ways are great, but four-ways just seem… wishy-washy. I mean, if you’re gonna add onions, go ahead and add beans. Or if you’re adding beans, go ahead and add onions.
Besides, they rarely get four-ways right; they either bring your a five-way or add onions when you wanted beans instead.
I’m all about the beans.
so, Rob, if I’m reading your comment correctly.. it’s safe to assume… odd numbers are best?
The fact that Obama’s lead increases with third parties in the race indicates to me that voters see more differences between McCain and Barr than between Obama and Nader. After all, you have to have some reason to switch.
It.s nice to finally hear the President speak and not cringe like a soft tyranny.