Though Peter Wallsten of the L.A. Times writes that Barack Obama is doing just as badly among white evangelical voters as his party’s 2004 nominee was at this point, the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life poll that forms the basis of Wallsten’s post emphasizes that John McCain has a smaller lead among white evangelical voters than Pres. Bush had at a similar point in 2004.
Both takes are correct, but such is the danger of looking at a single poll on an issue. McCain was favored by 64% of white evangelical voters surveyed in a June CNN poll. A June WaPo-ABC News poll released this week found McCain over Obama by 68%-22% among white evangelical voters. The new AP-Yahoo News poll has McCain over Obama by 62%-18 %, though that was among adults, not registered or likely voters.
Moreover, the full Pew poll — as well as a June study from Henry Institute on Religion and Public Life at Calvin College — suggest that the connection between religious intensity and political attitudes for such voters is still dominated by social issues like abortion and gay marriage. Moreover, white evangelicals appear to have views on foreign policy that mirror those of McCain, not Obama. This group of results suggests that McCain is in the ballpark with whire evangelicals, but that his ultimate level of support may be determined by the relative enthusiasms of the religious Right and Left.
The focus on white evangelicals by the media overlooks that Pew also finds Obama lagging prior Democratic nominees among non-Hispanic Catholics by about five percent. This group has been problematic for Obama from the outset, and the Obama campaign can be touchy about it (in retrospect, this may have been a precursor of the campaign’s emerging control-freakiness over their media coverage).
Obama bests McCain 67%-24% among voters without a religious affiliation. That is roughly how this group vote was split four years ago.  The difference between Obama and Kerry compared to Gore is that the latter did better with white mainline Protestants and less well with the unaffiliated.
In sum, while there have been reports from both religious and secular media suggesting that white evangelicals might be available to Democrats in general and Obama in particular, reports that the Democratic National Convention plans to court religious voters, and recurrring coverage of Obama’s faith-based appeals, there is little evidence in the polling data to suggest that he has made inroads or that the issue matrix has changed much for the devout voter.
I wonder when someone will note that the Second (or is it Third?) Great Awakening is drawing to a close? The faithful remain faithful but the fervor has diminished very substantially.
Dunno if it will affect the election though. And Obama the Red ain’t foolin’ the faithful.
Rick,
You raise a good point, but I think you answered your own question.
Karl,
What can Abu Obama say that will change the minds of white Democrats over the age of 30 who earn less than $50K? They don’t like him, they are not (at the moment) disposed to vote for him and, without them, he has no chance. Put another way – if Lamont could not connect with that core Democrat demo in CT, why would anyone think that Abu Obama is going to connect with them nationally?
If the election were just about the great Muddle (still chewing their collective cud as they graze accross green summer pastures) then I’d say there was a very distinct possibility that the Lightweight Vibrator had a decent shot. The Muddle can be nudged in either direction and the fall off in religious fervor would be a factor in Obama’s favor.
For Baracky to be rejected by evangelicals bolsters his lefty cred, cheap.
I had a run-in with some evangelicals this afternoon. Apparently, one of my neighbors owns an abortion clinic. At noon, 40 protestors showed up and lined the sidewalks and common areas of our small subdivision, chanting that a murderer live in X neighborhood, murder this, murder that. So, now my 6 year old wants to know which one of her neighbors murdered people, and if he was in jail. Suffice it to say that the normally happy go-lucky JD was not at all pleased to see this on the news, the traffic gawkers coming by to watch, the police sitting at the end of the street, and the fact that they were doing this on my street, rather than the parking lot of the abortion clinic. I am selfish I guess. I would have preferred to have a discussion with my daughter about these topics on my time frame, rather than theirs. Never mind. Just felt like venting.
Evangelicals used to understand better about honey and vinegar. But I don’t think they’re all that evangelical anymore.
Any questions?
JD,
I think your venting is entirely understandable, particularly with regard to protesters who target someone’s home. It does not strike me as good politics — and even those with the strongest anti-abortion views ought to have sussed out by now that protest is not a tactic that advances their agenda. And the vast majority do seem to have learned that lesson. From a distance, I can write that such protesters are — on the tactical level — no different than Code Pink people who feel the need to disrupt even naturalization ceremonies. Not all people against the iraq mission are that politically dumb, but there are some in any group. OTOH, if I was living at JD’s house, my reaction would be more visceral.
Yeah but Karl, were your reaction visceral, SEK would be over here in a heartbeat accusing you of undertaking a rhetorical scheme designed to imitate the protesters, and at that, intent on ruining JD’s day, not to mention the rest of his life.
Karl – Better Half locked me in the house. They are coming back tomorrow, apparently they got a permit to protest someone’s home. Who would’ve thunk you could do that. better Half will not be at home. I am going to make a huge paper mache had and stage a counter protest. They made me more than a little pissed.
You should be able to sue the city I think for fucking up your neighborhood.
Our city’s Director of Economic Development lives in the neighborhood. Not happy either. We are playing golf with the Mayor tomorrow. This husband and wife “baby butchers” have a boy in my daughters class. They should not have to put up with that at home. The parents are uber-nice. Never knew they were murderers.
I for real don’t think they are. People make their own choices, what get abortions. Probably this doctor does vasectomies too.
Which puts me in mind of the bar joke my sister sent today. It goes….
A baby seal ran into a club
This is going to a no fun place.
“But I don’t think they’re all that evangelical anymore.”
A term which encompasses Phelp’s Baptists and Leah Daughtry’s Matthew (nee Marx) 25ers may have lost some definitional value.
That’s why the “does not share my values” question as posed by Pew can be so easily misinterpreted. It’s amusing to consider that, should the “16 year” bit play out for Abu Obama he will be the first non-Baptist to wear the 16 year crown in its very limited history. (Or does ’60 count?) I look at the 16 year deal as very similiar to the “elected in a year ending in 0” curse which ran from 1840 to 1960. Harrison, Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, Harding Roosevelt, Kennedy – it seemed infallible.
hf – You are right. I am not going to let them piss me off any longer. I will not let them ruin my weekend. Maybe I will bake them a pie.
Maybe I will pose for pictures with them tomorrow.
It would be nice if you made Dr. Horrible a pie too I think. Or maybe cupcakes.
It’s really remarkable you even know your neighbors really. My neighbor is kind of sad. Mostly he works out and has sex with random people he meets online. I’ve never officially met him. He works at Warner Bros. is all I know.
I think any protest goes better with a huge paper mache.
Are you sure you couldn’t just go out in the backyard and lob a few 60deg wedge balls over the house into the crowd, JD? Y’know, practice makes perfect. (Though, depending on your wedge proficiency, a little well placed plywood might belay troubles later on with the missus.)
What was the weirdest was one day I was leaving to get smokes and one of his appointments was leaving at like 2 in the morning and I heard my neighbor say… now you just need to work on your emotional availability. Blind leading the blind, you see that a lot here.
Rick,
As for the 16-year cycle, I tend to view it like the Pirate’s Code, more like guidelines than an actual rule. Although Dems got in each time, there’s ceratinly the fraud issue in 1960. 1976 was much closer than most recognize, and Clinton won a plurality. Perhaps another analogy would be like a tornado watch — conditions are right for this sort of thing. I think it suggests that very roughly, most generations have a “change” election — McCain could win if he’s seen as enough change, or if O! is seen as too much change folks don’t want.
Karl,
I just keep thinking about what might have been had ole “11th Commandment” not chewed on Ford’s leg right through the convention in ’76. Or Perot not decided that ’92 was his year to get even with Bush I.
BTW – do you think Perot’s ears stick out more than Abu Obama’s?
Hmmmmm.
Evangelical Christians voting for a guy who refused to allow infants who survived a late term abortion attempt the right to life!?
Well. Those certainly are some principled Evangelical Christians.
Rick,
Those sort of “what ifs” are interesting, but there are counter hypotheticals as well. In 1976, what if Ford had put Reagan on the ticket? ’92 is one that still gets debated — Perot did attract a lot of “angry white males,” but there is some data suggesting that a lot of Perot voters might have just stayed home, rather than vote for GHWB.
Hmmm.
We need to have a Constitutional amendment to add a new option to every election:
“None of the above; because they all suck ass!”
I invited them over for dinner. There were some uncomfortable awkward silences. I felt really bad for them.
That really kind I think. They have to be feeling just awful. Have you checked to see what limits there are on how frequently those people can get permits?
After golfing with the Mayor tomorrow, I hope they never get that permit again. They moved here from Sierre Leone for medical schooling, and he works in some rough neighborhoods now. From what I understand, the objectionable part of his practice is tiny, and this group has followed him around.
Get the Mayor to join you in the backyard for the wedge practice.
There is a lake between us, chock full of biodegradable golf balls.