The New Yorker’s George Packer (seconded by TNR’s Michael Crowley) write that the past year’s progress in Iraq will not only require Barack Obama to change his position on promptly withdrawing troops, but also give him the political cover to do so. Packer writes:
His supporters claim that the polls are with Obama, that war fatigue will make Iraq a political winner for him in November. Yet, as exhausted as the public is with the war, a candidate who seems heedless of progress in Iraq will be vulnerable to the charge of defeatism, which John McCain’s campaign will connect to its broader theme of Obama’s inexperience in and weakness on national security. The relative success of the surge is one of the few issues going McCain’s way; we’ll be hearing about it more and more between now and November, and it might sway some centrist voters who have doubts about Obama.
The last phrase is key as it presents a trilemma for Obama.ÂÂ
When Crowley writes that Obama’s position “was always best-suited for a primary, not a general election,” he is greatly understating the matter. Obama made his opposition to the mission in Iraq a cornerstone of his campaign and his image. It was the most obvious difference between Obama and Hillary Clinton (and John Edwards, for that matter); he exploited it relentlessly. Indeed, his standard response to questions about his general lack of experience was that he had judgment — exemplified by his opposition to invading Iraq in the first instance.  Moreover, Iraq is one of the primary ways Obama seeks to associate his rival John McCain with the unpopular President Bush.ÂÂ
Obama shifiting to a more “pragmatic” position on Iraq would be very hard for many progressive activists to swallow. Granted, there are probably many Obama backers who live by the Al Davis credo of winning at whatever cost. Obama has probably correctly calculated that he will not lose significant support for having rejected public financing (and having broken his word to seriously discuss it with McCain) and for flip-flopping on the issue of electronic surveillance. But Iraq is a much higher-profile issue, and one much more defining of Obama’s candidacy. A flip-flop on Iraq might shrink the “enthusiasm gap” he has enjoyed over McCain (not only with the activists, but with younger voters), while weakening his brand of Changeyness and his ability to make his rival McSameyness.
Obama would be risking all of that to pick up centrists, some of whom may be looking to get out of Iraq sooner than later. Those numbers can probably be broken down and the cost-benefit ratio revealed. But even then, there is the risk that what Packer calls “defeatism” would fit into a larger picture of Obama as Carter instead of Reagan. Obama has to be careful to remain the candidate of Hope as well as Change.
Furthermore, shifting on Iraq might be seen as pragmatic, but Team McCain could fit that shift into the developing narrative of Obama as the person who will flip on any issue for political expediency. Obama’s initial opposition could be painted as the politically safe position for an Illinois state senator from Hyde Park aiming at a US Senate seat in late 2002 and early 2003 (and even that speech was more nuanced than many such speeches of the time). Since then, Obama’s positions on Iraq were consistently wrong based on the facts on the ground at the time, but consistently the politically expedient position for him to take.
Accordingly, following his planned trip to Iraq, I would not be surprised if, instead of an outright shift on Iraq, Obama ends up with a position not unlike that he now has regarding unconditional, direct diplomacy with Iran, i.e., a somewhat internally contradictory Rube Goldberg contraption, from which he will pull pieces for whichever audience is facing at the moment.
Baracky’s foreign policy was a lot crafted with Jeremiah Wright for the world inside his stupid community organizer head, not the world we deploy our soldiers in. We just have to wait for Baracky’s new advisers to explain to him what his new positions are. It could be any minute now.
Any change in positions is a good thing. Nice that he has abandoned the “SURRENDER NOW” position, but any changes are subject to change without notice, depending on circumstance, audience, expediency, etc …
Obama has decided this will not be a problem, as he is just going to tell the audience he is currently in front of what they want to hear. He’s a giver that way. A uniter. Someone for whom Michelle can be proud. A bringer of fruit.
All positions are American, and thus patriotic.
This is turning out to be the Multicolor Massive Play-Doh Kit Election.™
McCain has found energy religion with drilling and nucs. Any day now, ANWAR will be thrown under the Humvee (cue the gurgled screams of drowning polar bears.) Immigration reform will continue to mutate and ooze inj the hope that confusion will reign right through November. Several almost tearful regrets about Campaign Finance Reform/Heaping Pile of Monkey Crap will be forth coming.
Obama is determined to use the entire kit rather than borrow John Kerry’s. By the time he is done molding, mixing, matching and tossing overboard we will be in terminal shock that we considered Kerry to be “waffles.”
This one thing is why most of us hate politics, elections and candidates with a white hot passion and why barely 50% of voters bother to express their preferences.
Yup, consider my mellow officially harshed for the duration.
No way he is going to do this while he still has to raise money from people like me. Sorry guys stop grasping for him to come around to your position. Even IF he wanted to there is no possible way he would do it now.
Face it ProggHero, Obama just isn’t that into you.
Thanks EG, that one made me laugh.
Baracky shits all over Colombia. That’s a better gauge of his Fisher Price foreign policy really. The important thing to remember is that he consistently liberates American foreign policy from American interests. This is the change he’s promising.
PH
“Even IF he wanted to there is no possible way he would do it now.”
Keep your eye on the wheels of the bus.
PH,
If he did make this change, as we expect, will you change your vote to McCain or not vote?
Dre, I am just saying that since he opted out of public financing it is simply not possible for him to raise the 200 plus million dollars he needs if he starts acting like bush and saying “stay the course”. It is just simply not a possibility at this moment. If his Iraq policy is going to CHANGE then it will do so after the election.
I can’t believe he bitchslapped Wesley like that by the way. In front of everyone and all. Wesley must feel like a total loser this morning. He should get a Jamba Juice and maybe buy something that makes him feel pretty. Hang in there, Wesley. It gets better I promise.
I would sit out GB.
PH, so this one issue is the deal breaker for you? Have you ever voted in a presidential election before?
GB you going to vote for McCain even though he is going to legalize 25 million plus illegal immigrants and make your party a permanent minority?
Immigrants aren’t really inherently Democrats just the loser ones.
Proggie: He’s already kneading the clay into new, more nuanced positions. If he were to continue to insist upon the quickest, safest withdrawal from Iraq despite ground conditions he would please you and yours while paying a steep price with more moderate voters.
The hidden idea here is that a majority of Americans can be tired of Iraq but still not want to lose. Your position of “get out now, it sucked” is simply not going to play with a majority of voters and you candidate knows this.
Look for continued nuanced positions in the future from the Lightbringer.
Who goes to all the trouble to move countries just to vote for the same socialist wankers?
Sorry guys stop grasping for him to come around to your position.
There is no doubt that he will come around to our position. The only question is how long he will stick with that position. My bet, no longer than 5 minutes.
Reagan granted amnesty, and yet the party still occasionally manages to win elections every now and again. Like when Bush defeated Kerry and before that, Gore. Good times.
So what you guys are telling me is the response from the majority of proggressives will be to just take a complete reversal on Iraq policy with the willing acceptance of a 16 year old girl on prom night?
Progressives love hating Iraq policy, goofball. It make them feel like they’re substantive people.
*makes* and I am so leaving so I don’t miss my train again cause this is the last day of that librarian nonsense
That (not the permanant majority) and ANWAR and McCain Feingold and Carbon Pricing has me seriously on the fence about staying home or writing in. I’m on the fence because of the totality of his position, not any one policy declaration.
Of course, if Clark and others continue to talk smack about his military record I may just get pissed off enough to vote for him anyway.
Comment by JD on 7/1 @ 7:55 am #
Sorry guys stop grasping for him to come around to your position.
There is no doubt that he will come around to our position. The only question is how long he will stick with that position. My bet, no longer than 5 minutes.
Regardless, PH should be encouraged to vote.
How much is that carbon dioxide in the window? Please mom can I can I please? It’s absolutely preciousest!
Um, son, that’s just air.
Oh. Can I have an Xbox?
Did i predict this??
huh?
Karl, i demand props.
;)
Comment by ProggHero on 7/1 @ 7:57 am #
So what you guys are telling me is the response from the majority of proggressives will be to just take a complete reversal on Iraq policy with the willing acceptance of a 16 year old girl on prom night?
I’m not! I’m telling you to vote. If you truly believe dissent is the highest form of patriotism, vote for someone other than O!.
Perhaps we should start keeping track of the positions O!™ hasn’t flipped on? I think he will start flopping on Iraq … I think EVERYONE (here) knew he would.
Such and empty suit.
711 the question was what do you figure the majority of proggressives will do?
We have to stop this illegal war that bush started ASAP.
Tee hee … honestly, Proggy. YOu’re gonna have to try harder than that.
I think the Proggs should move to Venezuela. They’re REAL progressive down there. FIGHT THE CAPITALIST VALUES!
Try what harder Carin.
PS. I have only had one cup of coffee so far so cut me some slack.
Most of them will eat it and vote Democrat. What’s the alternative? Sitting it out is like holding your breath to get your way! That’s why I encourage you to vote!
We need to give Iraq back to the Iraqi’s.
We have to stop this illegal war that bush started ASAP.
Then write in a vote for Dennis Kucinich! He’ll even put George Bush on trial!
I think the majority of progressives will continue to support Obama no matter what PH. Even so, some will get pissed and write important action alerts denouncing the shift in policy stance, and some will see it as a ruse for the rubes which Obama doesn’t really mean.
Far be it from me to judge, but comment #31 was just lackluster. Halfhearted. I just didn’t FEEL it, ifyouknowwhatImeanandIthinkthatyoudo.
Proggie: Let’s expand the question.
Assuming that Obama continues to tack centerward, which partisan group is more likely to stay home?
a) Progressives (Netroots)
b) Reagan Conservatives/Libertarians
There’s already been quite a bit bloviated about “real” conservatives blowing off McCain despite his abortion bona fides. Will the old Christian Coalition thumb their collective noses in November?
As for progressives, they’ve had to absorb FISA, TUCC, public financing and now a (possibly) more nuanced position on Iraq and troops. We haven’t even started to deal with the disaffected Hilary supporters and whether or not they will make a sugnificant difference. If Obama were to acknowledge at least some success due to the new tactics and hope continues to blossom in Iraq and he modifies his “get the hell out as quickly as is safely possible” will he be abandoned by your people in a meaningful way?
I don’t know the answers to these questions but they reflect a higher level of uncertainty come November than you have been proposing in recent comments.
Chickens, hatched, etc.
I’m enjoying that PH is apparently comfy with the idea that BO will screw him after the prom.
But BJ, these people like abandoning others to sorry fates!
Comment by Karl on 7/1 @ 8:32 am #
I’m enjoying that PH is apparently comfy with the idea that BO will screw him after the prom.
Corsage. Check.
Lipstick. Check.
Vasoline. Biiig Check.
Also, in accord withmy hypothesis regarding the 16-year cycle, of course O! will disappoint the proggs, managing to get just enough Left agenda on the table to re-empower conservatives. But managing to stay in the WH, making bad policy of foreign affairs and national security.
And don’t forget the first off-year election, when Pelosi will be fired and the Senate will become less moronic, if only for the short term
TUCC was not a big deal for us. If you did not know we do believe that the United States, especially under bush, has done some evil things in the past and minorities have the right to be pissed. If you notice many proggressives were out defending Wrights freedom of speech, and his right to say what he wants to. It is not something I or other proggressives had to “swallow”. Other than the AIDS comment, which can be traced to the syphilis the army gave black men, what was wrong about what Wright said?
#46 is an incredible collection of feces.
What does this mean?
Thanks, JD. Now it’s clear.
It means show me what about Rev. Wrights statements is factually wrong? Besides the AIDS comment.
Other than the AIDS comment, which can be traced to the syphilis the army gave black men,
Explain this statement, Froggie.
The US government experimented on black men in WWII.
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/bhmtuskegee1.html
I guess you all agree with what Wright said on those YouTubeclips.
Proggie: You are tacking severely onto a course of teh crazee stoopid, now. Also, several secular progressives have expressed concerns about BLT and TUCC, as well as Wright’s statements, especially the idea that Obama’s children were in that church to hear that sort of philosophy.
What about my question posed above?
Obama already told the Iraqi foreign minister we’re not leaving. Are you saying he would lie to a person of color?
CArin-Bonc
“Perhaps we should start keeping track of the positions O!â„¢ hasn’t flipped on? I think he will start flopping on Iraq … I think EVERYONE (here) knew he would.”
He HAS TO flip on Iraq if he wants the election. Even though the MSM is doing it’s best to pretend it’s not happening, people are beginning to know that Iraq is going well. What they haven’t understood yet (thanks to the drive bys) is that the change is coming from the BOTTOM up, not the top down. Many Iraqis are beginning to realize that a stable society trumps religious insanity any day of the week, and that their neighbors aren’t really that bad.
Our prescence there is intrinsic to the learning process that the tribal mentality is being exposed to. If we leave now, we become the cowards of the county.
By election time, regardless of how much the drive bys lick O!’s balls, too many people will understand that cut and run is a deplorable and cowardly option.
O! MUST flip, or lose the election. And he will flip. He has no choice.
He has already started, in case you haven’t noticed.
Probably the Reagan conservatives would stay home. I could at least go vote against McCain and vote against the 3rd bush term.
Hope everyone noticed the backtracking that occurred in #52 from #46. PH claimed the PHS gave blacks syphillis, when what they did was not treat it. Still horrible, but apparently proggs have to exaggerate.
Other than the AIDS comment, which can be traced to the syphilis the army gave black men,
Explain this statement, Froggie.
Not sure, but I think it means Wesley Clark is gay.
arl – Lying is their default position.
I don’t think I’ve ever heard the Proggs described as 16-year-old girls before. It fits remarkably well!
I wonder if their moms sewed their prom dresses by hand?
“#
Comment by nishizonoshinji on 7/1 @ 8:07 am #
Did i predict this??
huh?
Karl, i demand props.”
Howze about we strap you to a P-38?
I could at least go vote against McCain and vote against the 3rd bush term.
Now that’s the spirit!
You are kinda grasping to say I lied Karl. Exaggerated yeah, lied no. There was an experiment with syphilis and black men where our government was extremely unethical. If you want to act like it never happened then fine go ahead.
“…which can be traced to the syphilis the army gave black men,…”
That is a lie.
Retract it.
#64: In #58, I wrote “exaggerate,” not “lie.” Interesting that you read it that way, though.
If you can’t be bothered to get and keep the facts straight perhaps it would be better not to speak of the thing at all, Proggy. Do yourself the favor.
Yeah I have deep seated issues with my mother Karl.
I’m sure the “Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the Negro Male” was run by progressive doctors.
Proggie:
If the government has actually infected the black men with a STD, then Wright’s comments about AIDS, while still utterly unsupported and a product of fevered fantasy, might have elicited the tiniest amount of consideration. The fact that they didn’t means that his entire premise, in addition to being fabulist, was based on a lie. No, proggie, not an “exageration, a bald faced opportunistic lie.
Victimization doesn’t give anyone any additional moral authority to spout lies, hate and bigotry. Unless, of course, you’re from the Neptune school which puts forth as revealed truth the idea that there’s no such thing as reversse discrimination and, thus, blacks cannot be racist.
Wow so you guys gloss over the entire issue since I typed gave, instead of left untreated on purpose which is pretty much the same thing. Nice work guys.
“#
Comment by ProggHero on 7/1 @ 9:27 am #
Wow so you guys gloss over the entire issue since I typed gave, instead of left untreated on purpose which is pretty much the same thing. Nice work guys.”
Great retraction, there bunky.
You sound like a Democrat.
When your exaggerate contain statements of fact that are indeed not facts, that’d be lying.
Oh, and words mean things.
Uh, no. It isn’t.
The government did inject people with radiation without their permission, although I think most if not all of those people were white. So never mind.
And, yes, the experiments on black men with syphilis were disgusting and despicable.
I admit I typed gave, when it was left untreated. I humbly beg apology and did not mean to lie or exaggerate.
Do you think that those black men cared that they were not “given” it, but that the government kept them under observation after they had it on purpose to experiment on them? I am sure they would really value that distinction.
Why would you do that to such a wonderful aircraft.
Just drag her into the rear of a cruise ship.
Left untreated is the same thing as actually infecting them?
You’d have been better off just typing “hamana – hamana – hamana!”
I loves me my Jackie Gleason.
Of course not but we value the distinction when you attempt to play apologist for Wright’s assertion that the Government infected Blacks with AIDS. Cuz, after all, the Gov. gave blacks that them there syphilis!
Nuance, the other white meat!
“We need to give Iraq back to the Iraqi’s.”
From that point of view we have still not given Germany back to the Germans, Japan back to the Japanese, or South Korea back to the South Koreans.
We did of course, due to the actions of Democrats, give South Vietnam back to the Vietnamese. Gave it to the North Vietnamese rather than the South but what the hell.
Oh, we also haven’t given the South back to the Confederacy either. Isn’t that still a quagmire according to what the TUCC preaches.
“Nuance, the other white meat!”
Racist.
GB you going to vote for McCain even though he is going to legalize 25 million plus illegal immigrants and make your party a permanent minority?
Well, in all fairness, we knew what his position on this was before he won the primary. So, it’s not the same thing as running entirely on an issue that you are lying about and then flopping. I’m sure you see that though.
If I’m not mistaken, in a previous argument you and I had, you listed (the only thing you could come up with) as the reason to vote for Obama as his “judgment” which you asserted was demonstrated (again, the only thing you could come up with) by his being against the Iraq war from the start and his willing to pull troops out.
Ironic, won’t it be, when his “judgment” (the only thing you can come up with to show he is qaulified to be pres) flip flops on itself?
I’m hardly a McCain supporter. Between these two very inferior candidates, I think McCain will do the least damage. But, I don’t pretend he is some kind of second coming like the Obama people do. I recognize and admit McCain’s shortcomings, and I say lesser of two evils.
How about you? Do you even admit that Obama is less than perfect in all ways? If so, I have not seen evidence of such.
Do you think that those black men cared that they were not “given†it, but that the government kept them under observation after they had it on purpose to experiment on them? I am sure they would really value that distinction.
By the way, it was all American Progressives that did that (the Tuskagee Experiment). typical kind of behavior from people who believe they can create a perfect world if they just controlled everything.
Why is it that progressives/leftists never admit any of their mistakes?
Meanwhile, Barack and company are beavering away at misrepresenting circumstances in Afghanistan and Pakistan so they will have some distractions to wave in the direction of Bush/McCain haters.
PH, the others have covered this, but let me summarize: nobody gave anybody syphilis in the Tuskeegee study. They withheld treatment in order to learn about the progress of the disease. Expanding medical knowledge is certainly progressive, isn’t it? And it was the Progressives of the time who proposed, set up, and conducted the experiment. Conservatives had no hand in it. (They didn’t give a damn. This is, arguably, just as bad.)
Now you will protest. Even if that’s true, Progressives have seen the error of their ways. They won’t do that any more.
But that’s the point.
What’s wrong with Wright’s beliefs and statements is that they don’t go anywhere, at least not anywhere forward. Instead they propose — demand! — restoration of the Old Ways, just with the polarity reversed.
I am a white Southerner of a Certain Age. I was part of the old system. As a child and adolescent I didn’t have much opportunity for some of the more extreme crap, but I participated fully. Your predecessors convinced me and others like me that we were frauds; that we preached with great self-satisfaction about Freedom and Opportunity and all that, while withholding it from others. As a result we agreed to give up the privileges we had, or rather to extend the same privileges to those we’d been holding back.
We did not agree to “our turn in the barrel”, and would not have. In fact, the principal opposition to the change came from people who feared that that was what was on the table.
But that is what Wright and his fellows demand. They are calling for revenge. From reparations to racial preferences, what they claim as their right is the same privileges over us as we had over their ancestors. And however that may tickle your and Prof. Caricature’s sense of equity, the one thing it is not is “progressive”. It is reactionism of the worst and most blatant sort, the re-creation of a bad system with the colors inverted. Having black men in Boss Hogg hats supervising gangs of white slaves is not a way forward. It is a way back into the deepest darkness.
Regards,
Ric
The black man is not trying to enslave you Ric. I know you conservatives are so “scared” of one in power but you will get used to it. They have been.
“#Comment by ProggHero on 7/1 @ 10:18 am #
The black man is not trying to enslave you Ric.”
Just the reactionary fascist ones, and reactionary fascism has no color. Just ask Hugo Chavez.
“I know you conservatives are so “scared†of one in power”
Way to pull shit from your ass.
“but you will get used to it. They have been.”
Remember, it was Republicans who fought to free the slaves, and Democrats who wanted to keep them in bondage.
So, who’s afraid of the black man again?
“The black man”?
No. But if you actually listen to Wright and those like him, that is the only way their demands can be fully satisfied. Of course, you won’t (listen, I mean); you will accept the bowdlerizations you’ve already been spouting.
Racial privilege is racial privilege is racial privilege. If black people must be hired or otherwise preferred because they’re black, it is not in any way different from a civil liberties point of view than the previous system. Excuses don’t matter. If you want to progress — to move forward into a day of equal protection under the law, for real instead of giving it lip service — preferences have to go, by definition. Anything else is the same lie and cheat by which I and my fellows deluded ourselves.
Regards,
Ric
What, you can’t stay standing up unassisted?
At the time, there was a very serious epidemic of STD’ among black males.
Was it eviromental?
Was it behavioral?
Was it genetics?
or was it all 3
The Doctors screwed up. and we try not let it happen again.
Tony
South Haven,MI
91: Slart,
I thought it was an admission that her material stunk and that she was going to go the route of Carrot Top.
Steroids? Mascara?
Wow so you guys gloss over the entire issue since I typed gave, instead of left untreated on purpose which is pretty much the same thing.
There it goes using its own dictionary again.
“I know you conservatives are so “scared†of one in powerâ€Â
What you know to be true could not fill a thimble.
94:
Slart,
Heh, but no.
Damn,
I just noticed that Ric already made a post about the issue,
and did it alot better, vastly better, than i ever could.
good job Ric.
Tony
South,MI
She was going to buy Pauly Shore’s house?
phone commercials. she’s very good at repeating things.
I don’t mind Sen. Obama jumping on the victory train – but if he tries to take credit for what my brothers in arms and I have have paid for in blood, sweat, toil and tears… I will vomit.
Could he simply not have the simple humility to say “things have changed, and thus my position has”? What is with the absolute inability to ever admit that his thinking hasn’t been perfect and timeless in it’s perfection? Cripes, even Popes will issue encylicals and such that change positions on things, and say so..
98-99: See 96.
Major,
Howdy. Remember, the Pope is a human; O! is a Lightworker.
So the next time one of those swirly bulbs burns out in my house, I should call Sen. Obama? Good to know.
[…] is probably correct, as noted here on Tuesday: Accordingly, following his planned trip to Iraq, I would not be surprised if, instead of an […]
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[…] that no one will notice that his consistently wrong judgments on Iraq since 2002 seem driven by political expediency. Obama does not want to fight the last war; he just wants everyone to accept whatever his […]
[…] The record Lindgren compiles shows that Obama’s positions on Iraq were consistently the politically expedient positions for him to take at the time. Thus, Lindgren’s concern that Obama’s position […]