As Hillary Clinton has used Barack Obama’s losses in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania to argue that she would be the more electable Democrat in the general election, Josh Marshall, Jason Zengerle and Jonathan Chait are among the left-leaners stamping their feet extra loud to emphasize that: (a) state primary results do not necessarily translate into general election victories; and (b) you cannot assume that because Obama is not faring well with blue-collar white voters that he cannot win them in a general election.
The first point is correct, but the head-to-head general election polling to date in Ohio (McCain +2.6 over Obama, Clinton +5 over McCain) and Pennsylvania (Obama +2.2 over McCain pre-“clingy” comments, Clinton +6.2 over McCain) tends to suggest Clinton is currently a stronger general election candidate in those states. Clinton also fares better than Obama against McCain currently in the traditional bellwether state of Missouri. Marshall is correct, however, in noting that Obama is currently the better general election candidate in Colorado (though he makes that point after claiming we should not be looking at state polls this far away from the election).
Similarly, the demographic argument about blue-collar white voters is true as far as it goes, but Marshall and the others are ignoring the history of Democrats doing poorly with the white male vote in presidential elections and the fact that Democarst have become the party of the poor, as voters with family income above $30,000 have been voting Republican. That could change if the economy deteriorates significantly between now and November, but the implicit assumption that such voters will necessarily prefer the “virtually identical” (per Chait) economic platforms of Obama-Clinton over McCain’s platform is just that — an assumption. As the economy became the top issue to voters, the economic stimulus passed by a Democratic Congress was a tax rebate, not tax increases.
Moreover, to the extent that Democratic primary voters see Obama and Clinton as basically similar on economic policy, these pundits defeat their own argument. If economic policy is not what separates Obama and Clinton, what does? On the issues, most likely Clinton’s vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. At the political level, it is Clinton’s greater cultural affinity with blue-collar white voters. That is the gap between the lovers and the fighters or — as Michael Barone would have it — the academics and the Jacksonians.  It is also the gap between the McGovern voters and the Muskie voters, which is the comparison Chait (and the others implicitly) want to avoid. Which is why others, like Marc Ambinder, end up attributing it all to “the inviolate and submerged racial prejudice of older voters.” Making everything about the identity politics of black and white (while ignoring that a much larger percentage of whites have voted for Obama than blacks have voted for Clinton) certainly makes folks on the Left feel better about themselves, and absolves them of having to look at the upcoming general election campaign as one of grit versus waffle.
(h/t Memeorandum.)
There is more information about the Democratic party’s problems with the working-class white vote here.
McCain wants to kneecap and trade the economy too though. No matter what they decide we’s gonna get a visit from the climate fairy.
Making everything about the identity politics of black and white (while ignoring that a much larger percentage of whites have voted for Obama than blacks have voted for Clinton) certainly makes folks on the Left feel better about themselves, and absolves them of having to look at the upcoming general election campaign as one of grit versus waffle.
That isn’t the headlight of the locomotive, that isn’t the headlight of the locomotive…
But Mikey,
Haven’t you heard that Obama is “The One?” He is going to flip backwards out of path of that oncoming train, leaving Agent McCain to death on the tracks. In bullet-time, no less.
Clinton has been a lot cowardly in drawing for real policy distinctions. You have to pin it on her cause Barack makes distinctions a lot even though his policy distinctions are mostly between him and his advisors.
Karl, he’s got to deal with Agent Clinton first, and she seems to have all of the endearing qualities of Jason, Freddy Krueger, Michael Myers, Dracula, Frankenstein (Dr. and Monster)…
And that Norfolk Southern fast freight ain’t slowing any.
Jr. Masked Maker of Identity Politics Grit-Waffles! That has a ring to it. Don’t forget, Karl, business cards need a 24 hour turnaround time. You’ll want some handy before Jeremiah addresses the National Press Club on the 28th.
So Karl, Kobe sure had a big game last night, punked old Iverson that’s for sure. Ever watch hoops? No, no I wouldn’t guess you do. But then there’s Steve Nash, he’s white, and he’ll be playing tonight in a always-spirited series against San Antonio. An ambidextrous dribble and a fade away jumper!
I’ve despised Hillery since her “bake cookies” snark, but to my surprise, she’s earned my respect in the last few weeks. The woman does indeed have “grit” (apt comparison, Karl) and through ducking, bobbing, weaving, and punching has not only held on, but evened the match on points. If she’s gained my respect (conservative and chauvinist as it is), I’ve got to think the same goes for some of those white male Democrats in Indiana and NC.
Both Obama and Hillery may be socialists, but the Hildabeast will never let it be said the first woman president was too weak to nuke Iran.
Is a gritwaffle better or worse than a twatwaffle?
And if the former gets into the latter, does it make a pearl?
…or a pearlwaffle?
If you can’t stnd the heat, get out of the waffle-iron.
(I know I’ve said that before, but I really like it.)
I never got what was wrong with the bake cookies comment. I think maybe that rubs people of a certain generation the wrong way more? Not that I like her or anything. She’s smarter than McCain though. We have to be sure and keep that in mind.
I did the calculations on my calculator, Salt Lick, and it came out 7734, which if you turn the calculator upside down makes the LED display spell out hELL.
Now I’m no Cantor or Godel, but my interpretation of this paranormal phenomena is that this could only mean Hillary Clinton fell tits first into the loser pool after she lost Texas. That you respect such a loser, such a total whore of a woman, equates that you are, mathematically speaking, a business card carrying member of the crypto-Marxist goof squad.
The poisson tables are what they are and I don’t know how else to interpret the feasible data. Somewhere down the line, Salt Lick, old buddy, you’ve become a budding Socialist tool, or worse!
Some people can be vulgar and funny, and some people can be funny without being vulgar.
Then there’s thor…
I never got what was wrong with the bake cookies comment. I think maybe that rubs people of a certain generation the wrong way more?
Gritwaffle … careful there. Steve will bring out the sand in the vaseline again.
I never got what was wrong with the bake cookies comment. I think maybe that rubs people of a certain generation the wrong way more?
It was the way she said it, hf, like baking cookies was purile and below intelligent women.
Well, if I may barfly respond, there’s much color coding in certain of the pro-Hillary messages. Here it comes:
Times right. Gonna put on my boots made for stompin’. Jeremiah dark seed! And that downtown boy talkin’ his shit. I’m coming Hillary!
Oh. I never bake cookies. I would I guess if I had kids what needed cookies though. Kids should have cookies. My mom used to bake a lot of cookies and freeze them so we always had cookies. Peanut butter was my favorite but she made lots of kinds cause she subscribed to Southern Living and had all their cookbooks. Maybe Hillary didn’t know that there’s some what you can bake and freeze so you don’t always have to be baking. This also works with girl scout cookies I remember. Mom bought cookies from any girl scout what would ring the doorbell and then just freeze them. They had peanut butter ones too, but not as good as mom’s. Really though the truth is that cookies what aren’t made with love ain’t worth having I don’t think, so if it wasn’t Hillary’s thing then really it’s better she just does what makes her happy than for her to foist a batch of misbegotten cookies onto the world I think.
…it’s better she just does what makes her happy than for her to foist a batch of misbegotten cookies onto the world I think.
Sure. After all, somebody’s got to keep the Girl Scouts in dough. OTH, let’s not imply that some of the women I love, one who quit a career as a rocket scientist for NASA to be home with her kids, are wasting time baking cookies. Which I know you aren’t, hf.
Aren’t implying, that is, hf.
Oh no, not at all. Oh. I get it now. Wasting time. You kind of have to infer the wasting time part from what she said. But really, people should do whatever. I think a lot for real that for a mom to spend a lot of time with her kids is only a beneficial thing if she’s a good mom. Otherwise it’s better for mom to go out and make herself useful doing something she has more aptitude for.
Karl,
Has the over 40, under $50K demo actually come in for a limpwrister since FDR? Maybe Humphrey but not particularly solidly. Aside from him, I can’t come up with anyone. Certainly not Stevenson, McGovern (who wasn’t actually a limpwrister), Mondale, Dukakis, Gore or Kerry.
Klein better check his hole card – that ain’t an ace, sport.
haps – I read the comment then that baking cookies was beneath her. Of course, I don’t expect any candidates wives (or the husband, or the candidate him/her/it self)to actually do that, but it’s one of the little quirks of American campaigning. It proves that the candidate is ‘just folks’.
Rick – I think it was only FDR’s legs that were limp. Certainly he had no problems weilding his cousin’s ‘Big Stick’. Otherwise, I agree.
You democrats never cease to amaze me. The one year you actually have a chance to win the Whitehouse and you still haven’t picked a candidate. What’s wrong with you people??? This back and forth bickering between both sides is ridiculous. Democrats are sure a stubborn bunch – every time it seems to be finished you do exactly the opposite of what you should do and vote for Billary Clinton. Just face it will you – this year it is meant to be Obama vs McCain. The world has had enough of two families occupying the Whitehouse for 20 years. This whole BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/CLINTON has to be stopped this year. Smarten up and start voting against Hillary so the real race can go on.
But if the Democrats do that, harry, they won’t get around to rejuvenating themselves. All they’ll do is rearrange the identity politics musical chairs.
Karl, point well made. Obama one-on-one vs McCain won’t stand a chance. Inexperienced people – young voters – will give Obama the benefit of the doubt. The adult voters – speaking for myself- who have seen many candidates like Obama (making promisses, unable to deliver) they do not vote with their hearts but use their mind instead. Who is going to vote for a candidate that is preaching a weak message of hope ? When on the other side you have a strong war hero with a record of getting things done ? I don’t agree with his view on troops Iraq, so what ? It’s a no brainer.
Unfortunately Hillary has already lost the race, but if she for some reason would win the nomination still (agree it would take a miracle) we can still have a democrat for president. Would that not be nice ? That is my ‘hope’
<snicker>
Senator Clinton, wasn’t suppose to campaign in Michigan, but somehow she manage to get her name on the ballot and now she’s attempting to claim the right of voters who voted because she can not accept losing to a better candidate so she makes herself beleive her numbers are higher then Senator Obama. Senator Clinton has problems in her own committee to be worrying about Mr. Obama.
Hillary Clinton
Irrational and Unfair
Is America ready for a woman president? Yes. Is America ready for Hillary Clinton as a woman president? No. Why? Because she has shown herself to be irrational and unfair!
All you non-believers, think to yourself a moment, if Hillary Clinton were a rational woman would she still be in the race?
Look at all the men who dropped out of the race immediately because they were rational enough to know that they could not mathematically win the race. I know your rebuttal (Hillary Supporters) Obama can’t reach the magic number either and my answer is: he is still in the lead and it is unfair of Hillary to ask the superdelegates to hand her the election when she is not in the lead and will not be in the lead at the end of this race!
It is unfair to continue in an unwinnable race while simultaneously bashing the democratic nominee. It is irrational for her to count the votes, in Michigan and Florida, as her win when she agreed they wouldn’t count. It is unfair to single-handedly divide the Democratic Party. It is irrational to waste valuable time and resources that could be better spent campaigning against McCain. It is unfair to ask the American people, struggling to make ends meet, to donate to a dead campaign.
I ask the American people, to whom this blog is for because you can not speak rationally to an irrational person, is she the type of woman you want in the highest post and in the hardest job in America? I think not! We need a man or woman that is rational and fair because without those qualities, 35 years of experience will get us know where!
Finally, to the media, Keith Olbermann, this topic should be number one on your countdown. Stephen Colbert, make irrational and unfair words of the day. Anderson Cooper, discuss this with your expert panelists. Bill O’reilly, invite a psychiatrist to your show instead of the person analyzing body movements. Media it is your duty to spread the word, so that Americans can make a rational and fair decision when they go to the polls!
A man died and went to Heaven. As he stood in front of the Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him. He asked, “What are all those clocks?”
St. Peter answered,
“Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on earth has a Lie-Clock. Every time you lie, the hands on your clock move.”
“Oh”, said the man.
“Whose clock is that?”
“That’s Mother Teresa’s,” replied St. Peter. “The hands have never moved, indicating that she never told a lie.”
“Incredible,” said the man.
“And whose clock is that one?”
St. Peter responded, “That’s Abraham Lincoln’s clock. The hands have moved twice, telling us that Abraham told only two lies in his entire life.”
“Where’s Hillary’s clock?”
asked the man.
“Hillary’s clock is in Jesus’ office…
He’s using it as a ceiling fan!”
oh gawd, did CNN link again?
I’m voting for Tara as best… so far. KNOW WHERE!
and “non-believers”
*snort*
Obama, He is a Negative campaigner where it counts the most…Negative about America and Americans! And this article saying these swing states means, in so many words, nothing, is Democrats for Obama who have totally forgotten the KEY to general elections! Americans, regardless of Party affiliation, are not going to vote for the American President that listens for 20 YEARS to Anti-American rhetoric. Wright is not going away. And ESpecially with a General Election and the Republicans. We will only hear more! Therefore, between his lack of experience and this controversy, they are NOT going to change their minds and decide to vote for Obama. He blew it!If Obama is the nominee, these journalist will sit in front of their television sets just as the rest of us do, and they watch Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio tuen RED for McCain, then they have seen what a joke there journalism has become. GET REAL!
By the way, with those ranchers up there in Colorodo, you also have a lot of hunters in Colorodo! And he now blew this “Colorodo will turn blue” theory! As weak as it was to really think he would win on a few states like this! He still would need at least Florida and Ohio. Or Ohio and Pennsylvania. But regardless, Colorodo, as MANY states, voted before the Wright contoversy. His lead is very debateable now! Would he have had the lead had all of this come out in the beginning? No! he would have been out of the race a long time ago!
Pure speculation she would beat McCain easier than Obama.
Another thing is the Superdelegates, funny that most of them that give Obama support are former cabinet members of the Clintons