Although the headlines this week were dominated by the Clinton Obama cage match in Pennsylvania and its aftermath, the undercard may have been the number of pundits wondering whether this was the best week John McCain was going to have in this campaign.
New York magazine ran a lengthy piece from John Heilemann wondering whether McCain really was this year’s Bob Dole and listing McCain’s vulnerabilities in a general election, which include his organization, his fundraising gap and his age. Others expanded on other facets of Heilemann’s overview. Stuart Rothenberg focused on the fact that Democrats still have national issues in their favor, with economic issues being McCain’s weak spot. Bob Beckel argued McCain’s efforts to make nice with conservatives would erode the Maverick brand and aid Democratic attempts to portray him as McSame of Bush. At The Atlantic, Ross Douthat and Matthew Yglesias note McCain’s inability to crack 50% in national head-to-head polls, even as his potential opponents spend each day attacking each other.
Turning first to organization (as I am wont to do), Heilemann writes that McCain’s events have not been well-staged, lacking the headline, picture and story you design every day on a national campaign.  Heilemann continues:
McCain’s organization has been ramping up far too sluggishly in the eyes of some professional Republicans. Though its high commandâ€â€the so-called Sedona Five, which consists of Black, Davis, McKinnon, Salter, and Schmidtâ€â€is well regarded, it seems stretched too thin. “It’s a skeleton crew over there,†said the same strategist. Astonishingly, the campaign has just four full-time finance staffers and no significant online buck-raking presence. In March, it reportedly raised just $4 million over the Web and through direct mail.
When it comes to media and strategy, however, the campaign is nearly at full speed. A best-and-brightest collection of Republican admen has been pulled together, and, maybe more significant, talent from Bush World is beginning to migrate into McCain Land. The former Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman is now an informal adviser. Former Bush speechwriter Matthew Scully is onboard as well. There are even rumors that Rove, the Architect himself, is funneling ideas through the pipeline. “There’s no official/formal relationship with Rove,†McKinnon e-mailed coyly. “Karl is on Fox a lot. We watch a lot of Fox. Karl has become an open-source consultant.†But one of the savviest Karlologists I know suspects that Rove is providing a steady stream of advice through multiple points of contact with the campaign and the national party.
Having previously noted McCain’s organizational and fundraising issues, I note that Heilemann highlights that McCain’s top advisers are now lobbyists like Rick Davis and Charlie Black — a fact the Democrats could try to use to damage McCain’s reformist image (though that might lead to some tit for tat exchanges).
As for fund raising, McCain currently seems headed for the public financing system, which will disadvantage him overall (esp. as against Obama), but also make him more dependent on outside groups. This raisies another issue of consistency, given that McCain has made a career of attacking such groups. Moreover, it diminishes his ability to control his campaign’s perceived message. Of course, money is not everything — Obama greatly outspent Clinton in Pennsylvania, only to lose by double digits. In 2004, two relatively small expenditures by Bush and his allies — the $546,000 ad buy by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and the Bush campaign’s $3.25 million contract with the firm TargetPoint Consulting — were among the most effective. The McCain campaign is trying to make a virtue of running lean by decentralizing the campaign, but it remains to be seen whether McCain and his supporters can make smaller expenditures count.
Indeed, the organizational and fundraising problems have a certain negative synergy. If McCain is going to rely on public financing, he will also be far more reliant on free/earned media than his likely rival Obama. It is therefore more important for McCain’s organization to develop stories and events that will garner that sort of coverage. In addition, Camp McCain’s general lack of interest in the Internet probably hurts his fundraising — ironic, given that McCain was an Internet fundraising pioneer in 2000. It also hurts the ability of the campaign or its supporters to create viral content that can be widely and cheaply spread nationwide.
Heilemann’s passing praise for McCain’s media team might seem odd to some who find them strange and weak (see, e.g., here, here, here and here). Then again, McCain adman Mark McKinnon is one of Heilemann’s quoted sources, so maybe not so odd. But I think there are a fair number of people who are not upset over the notion that McKinnon will step down from the McCain campaign if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
Turning to McCain’s age, regular pw readers know that one likely reason McCain staged his “biography tour” was the fact that “old” is the word most people volunteered about him in one recent poll, with “hero” well down the list.  In a “change” election year, that is not a good thing. It potentially brands him — like Dole in 1996 — as a candidate of the past. Polls from Gallup/USA Today and NBC/WSJ suggest that between 20-30% of voters may count McCain’s age against him, though this may be partially offset by people who see Obama as too young to be president.  To the extent that older voters might prefer an older candidate, while younger voters prefer a younger candidate, another recent Gallup poll suggests that McCain’s weakness against Obama rests with younger women.
McCain’s other perceived problems are not as large as the aforementioned pundits think. McCain may have shot himself in the foot with his habit of admitting he not an expert on the economy, but Obama is no expert either. Obama is advocating raising taxes — both on income (by letting the Bush tax cuts expire) and on capital gains, which hits as many as 100 million Americans. People generally do not favor tax increases, especially if they believe the economy is souring. And what happens in the economy — and voters’ perception thereof — are likely more determinative of the vote than the specifics of the candidates’ policy positions.
McCain has largely overcome the concerns of rank-and-file conservatives, even as McCain leads Obama among independents by a spread of 42-29, according to Gallup. Obviously, Democratic attacks could eat into that spread by November, but Team McCain seems set to attack Obama primarily on his far left issue positions to maintain that spread. In either event, both McCain and Obama currently owe their respective positions to voters chasing the mirage of bipartisan cooperation and goo-goo reformism than those who care about policy particulars.
Finally, those bloggers looking at head-to-head national polling figures — close as they are — seem intent on repeating the analytic errors of 2000 and 2004. The general election is in fact 50 state elections. In order to take a fresh look at the electoral map, I direct you to the monte carlo simulations of the McCain-Obama and McCain-Clinton match-ups run frequently at the left-leaning HominidViews blog. One should not put too much stock in this method. As with any polling data November is a long way off. In addition, iirc, monte carlo simulations predicted a Kerry win on election eve 2004.ÂÂ
Nevertheless, the maps tell us something about the current state of play in each match-up. Both simulations currently give McCain an approximate 80% probablity of winning the electoral vote. That data may be more relevant to the candidates’ task than the national horse race number (though there is some relationship between the two, natch).
Bonus: The accompanying graphs of trends over time add a wrinkle relevant to the Democrats’ debate over electability in a way that the RCP average does not. The trendlines for Obama suggest that Obama hit a peak in early March, plunged, had a slight bounce, then resumed a more gradual decline. Thus, the amalgamation of state polls more clearly shows the toll taken on Obama by his 20-year relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, followed by his comment that small town folks in the heartland clung to God and guns due to economic stress. In contrast, the trendlines for Clinton show that she bottomed out in late January and has been slowly improving ever since.
At least small town folks in the heartland don’t cling to polls, gotta give them that.
I am already tired of Baracky and Hill’s ads here in Indiana.
McCain: If any of you independent Republican groups are thinking of running ads about Rev. Wright, don’t. I’m telling you, don’t run the Rev. Wright stuff. Reverend Wright….Reverend Wright….
– For some reason, readily apparent to a only few bag women on 9th and State street, the Dems are REALLY not interested in polls right now.
– Hmmmm. McCain, McCain….Isn’t that the old duffer that was totally out of it as recently as late last year. How did that work out for you NYT?
It is rampant speculation – which is the bread and butter of any pundit (or me!). The fundraising is important and needs to pick up, but at the moment McCain has had a grace period in which he could act presidential while his potential rivals adhere to the left* and rip each other – essentially doing his work for him and spending a lot of their money to do so. The continuation of the Bush Administration is something that could be thrown at him, but at the same time he has had such issues with the administration it would be difficult. Certainly the names ‘Davis’ and ‘Black’ don’t ring any bells for me, and I think that the Democrats would have some work to do to get anyone less informed than either Karl (Rove or PW’s) to have the slightest clue who these people are and why that is important. Unless they were the vaunted architect of an unimaginable fubar, I think the reaction from voters wouldn’t justify the costs. Yes, McCain is old, but he is feisty old, and a lot of old people vote. They do so reliably in darn near every election. Sen. Obama may come across as too young; Sen. Clinton about right. I don’t know how that is going to break until I see reliable poll results for actual voters age 55 and up. McCain will get targeted by the media – that is a given, but I think he will continue to receive a lot of press coverage, mostly because he’s good copy. He always has something to say and it is always punchy, not in diplo-bureau-speak. The stories write themselves, so the reporters will always go back to the well – he makes their jobs easy. (Try writing something on the latest foreign policy initiative regarding the situation in Lower Absurdistan so that the reader doesn’t just scan the headline and move on. McCain, he’d make it interesting – the reader might actually go a couple of paragraphs in.)
Some thoughts for now, may have more later.
*(I would note that Sen. Obama’s gaffe at the Getty manison has allowed Sen. Clinton to start tacking back to the center, a position any candidate needs to be in for the general election. She ought to send him an FTD bouquet for giving her such a thoughtful gift.)
mccains medical reports are due may 15 after a four month slip.
that is going to drive home just how old he is.
also appeal to visual cortex. don’t know how mccains campaign strategists will get around that.
homosapiens sapiens is wired for visual cortex to preempt everything. fight or flight response. ;)
i like rasmussen markets, Karl. RM gives the dems the election consistantly.
bidding theory, games theory, a lot more bleeding edge than plain old monte carlo method.
fantasy politics like fantasy football.
a lot will depend on mccains VP pick.
but you can’t exactly push handsomemormonguy right now, can u?
not with MORMON polygamy ranch on tapeloop.
lolz
Mikey,
It doesn’t matter who Black and Davis are (per se) to the Dems. The line in the attack ad would go something like: John McCain pretends to fight the special interests in Wasgington, but his campaign is run by lobbyists for Big Oil, Big Tobacco, and Blackwater…”
mccains wedge.;)
theory sapiens homo fantasy, but iso carlo, iso.
jeffie strategism fight, Karl.
admit it, mccain is just a very bad candidate.
and he got in because of the repubs faustian bargain with the theocons.
the vamphyres think they own the house.
Just checkin’ in, bringing Ghidra and Godzilla in for a quick run through. Yeah, we got it McCain is old, he’s a war hero, and we’re in the middle of a war, with Salafi, Wahhabis, Iranian
comandoes et al. Obama’ terminally clueless, he doesn’t even have the right reference points for what we’re
dealing with.
also, the rcp graphs represent Obama’s resilience.
the blue line trends up.
if i was going to model this i’d use box-jenkins timeseries, like we do for forecasting econometrics.
if i were mccain’s strategists…i’d go for the VP pick right now.
he’d get a bump.
if mccain waits until the med reports are released it will look like damage control.
That is the point I was trying to make Karl – you have to do the tie in, and if they want to go that route they can try. It may be more difficult for them to attack him on this point, an up hill battle, than the results would justify. Unless there is some scandal, I think it will slide right past. And, as an added bonus, the Democrats are vulnerable in the same way. Sen. Obama’s fundraiser was at the Getty manision, and the name ‘Getty’ will ring bells for older voters.
In addition, this is an old line of attack, it is used every campaign, and unless there really is a fresh spin on it, the attack will fall into the expected background noise. They would have to find some spin unique to McCain, his specific vulnerabilities, and the best of that I think is going to be age and temperment. The others are too generic to really mean much.
In contrast, Sen. Obama has a lot of unique issues that apply only to him and can get past the generic attack ad. (Generic: Democrats are soft on crime. Specific: Willie Horton.)
This is all my speculation, of course.
gamera has us all fooled, what with the no caps, the visual cortex, the jeffie and whatnot. cannot guess who it is.
but it won’t be handsomemormonguy for the obvious reasons.
haha Karl
don’t u kno?
my name is legion
Wait…do you mean to tell me that John McCain has a few miles on him?
Holy shit. Knock me over with a feather.
anyways, mccain could at least get a new peak with a decent VP pick.
that would deny the critics that say he can only go down from here.
I mean, he’s almost old enough to be my father.
my REAL name is legion
hahahaha
If I had to name the one pundit/observer that I do take seriously for predictions, it would be Michael Barone. Too many others seem to let their personal desires get in the way of their judgment.
…my grandfather, on the other hand, just might be able to kick his ass.
bama bee trendy upz on mee thi’s rowr
wher didz eye puut oliv oilz Mmmmmmmm lulz
I saw nishi’s name on the new comment thing, and I chuckled KNOWING her comment was prolly a reference to McCain’s age. You’re
gettingway too predictable.Test
heh carin sheocon yoo nowe mcaans two oldz
he bee droolinz at swaring inz lol
thn altzhimrz n teh crazee lulz
mee bama speeshz purtee n al grrrrlz swoonz ceptz mee eye gasm lik frate traan Oooooooooo
mus rubz oliv oilz thi’s Mmmmmmmmm
Carin – nishi/gamera/mothra/fuckingbabblingidiot only has 4-5 memes that it spits out regardless of topic. Just wait, the ID, theocon, exposeexpelled, ESCR, and the rest will be trotted out shortly. It is its own, self contained, feedback loop.
To know, I would have to care enough to follow the aliases and sock-puppets.
Is there really a choice here?”
[…]
“On one side, you have a b*tch who is a lawyer, married to a lawyer, and a lawyer who is married to a b*tch who is a lawyer.
“On the other side, you have a true war hero married to a woman with a huge chest who owns a beer distributorship.
“Is there a contest here?”
– All of which proves that a well filled bra trumps a wet sock puppet every time.
JD, you forgot to mention WEDGE. I mean, I know it’s a subset of the ID meme, but I think it deserves spot of it’s own.
If I were McCain’s strategists, I would have told him to forget about running for president, take another term in the Senate, and retire someplace where those damn kids won’t trample his lawn.
I also would have told him if he insists on running for president, to learn how to fart rainbows. Because the lolcatz just lurvz old pplz who fartz rainbowz.
Also, WEDGE STRATEGY!
Carin – nishi/gamera/mothra/fuckingbabblingidiot only has 4-5 memes that it spits out regardless of topic. Just wait, the ID, theocon, exposeexpelled, ESCR, and the rest will be trotted out shortly. It is its own, self contained, feedback loop.
Even the kos kids told her to “put down the bong”.
lolz…well expelledexposed went viral on the other side of the semipermeable membrane that separates the two right and left social networks of the blogverse.
Charles and zombie and pixy misa beat stein and expelled like a red-headed stepchild.
charles had 30+ trackbacks last i looked.
captain stupid had 2.
that’s a meme war the good won, hehe.
that’s a meme war the good won, hehe.
and a very important one at that, nishi.
the good guys won!
haha
it was sweet.
one link captain stupid got was the original from Instapundit…the other was from pixy…the stupid, it burns, he says.
it was important to me.
;)
there is no altruism in nature.
hahaha
I’m reserving judgment on the meme war until I see the casualty figures.
#34 MayBee – She’s just out to cause grief, so ignore her.
I have a question I want to put to you all, but there is a little bit of introductory material first. One of the things that has grabbed my interest is the response of presidential candidates to potentially embarrassing things in their backgrounds. Every human has done things that they would rather no one else (or any law enforcement agency) would know. Many candidates do not take the time to take care of these issues before they began campaigning. One example is George W. Bush’s drunk driving incident (ticket or arrest?). Before he began to campaign that should have been dealt with. A famous one is John Kerry’s winter soldier testimony before the senate. That was such an active issue, so hot-button, that he should have made amends years before he ran. Now we have Sen. Obama’s associations with Rev. Wright, Ayers and Dohrn, and God alone knows who next.
Every candidate will make mistakes in their campaigns for the nomination and for the general that will need to be addressed. That takes time and energy that could be better spent on promoting the candidate and puts it to repairing damage. No candidate needs to have past mistakes come up and have to be addressed while campaigning, that drains additional resources. This blindness with regard to the past and what it can do to a candidate interests me because the solution is obvious and should be on the checklist of things to do before an exploratory committee is even formed.
So, the question I want to ask is this: Are John McCain’s introductory commercials an attempt by his campaign to bring up all of the potential flaws and mistakes of the candidate (that are known as such) and defuse them as issues before the vital part of the general campaign begins?
If so, does that make his campaign a much different campaign than others in recent memory, and what would that mean to future campaigns?
Mikey – Great question. Fundamentally, I think it fails to take into account that politicians are some of the most vain, egotistical asshats walking the planet, and they believe that they can do no wrong. Couple that with the voting public’s ability to ignore fundamental flaws for those that they agree with on politics, and it is a recipe for continued failure in this regard. I do agree that trying to get out in front of these issues would be new, and welcome even.
JD – trust me, I believe that narcissism is one of the hallmarks of any very ambitious person, from politician to admiral to hot dog vendor. But this is part of the planning process or should be and it seems to be ignored in many campaigns – as a rule – when it would provide a great advantage to a candidate to eliminate those problems and conserve resources. Is the McCain campaign trying to address this on their terms? If so, what does that say about his campaign and ultimately about him?
I’ll remember that the next time you post about Greenwald and work in the reference to “Gleens.”
To correct you, Karl, you do care about sock puppets when the commenter regularly kicks your ass in effectiveness of rhetoric, construction of an argument, results obtained from the argument and exponentially beats you in traffic.
The latter means nishi is safe.
Of course nishi is safe.
Weirdo.
What kind of serial-ass killer name is Lionel Hutz anyway?
The good guys won, evidently, because the bad guys were so unprepared for war that a mild case of morning breath was all that was needed to defeat them.
You don’t argue ID with people that can’t distinguish evolution from abiogenesis from cosmology. It’s a waste of time.
Oh, Karl, he showed your ass. That’s gonna sting for at least a few milliseconds.
Don’t run him off too fast – maybe he can talk matoko/nishi/gamera out from under the kitchen sink.
Then again, he may join her and we’ll have two throwing brillo pads at Dan. What to do, what to do.
it wasn’t about that.
expelled was just IQ-baiting.
think about how irresistable, how infinitely seductive this meme is….
you are just as smart as those snobby scientists! you’re just smart in a different way!
god-smart!!
a lotta that at NRO lately
the derb
dim jim
hehe, they are arguing about the popes wiki entry where it says benedict doesn
belive in relativity!!!!
hahaha
these things do….
best please me
which befall preposterously!
oh lord, what fools these mortals be….
;)
Happyfeet, effete journalist of the Right Wing, has never seen the Simpsons? You are so out of touch…
[…] on the subject of McCain, the corrollary to the current conventional wisdom — that John McCain is peaking now because he is getting a free ride while the Dems pummel each other – may be called into […]
[…] McCain’s sluggish organization has been noted here previously: [T]he organizational and fundraising problems have a certain negative synergy. If McCain is going to rely on public financing, he will also be far more reliant on free/earned media than his likely rival Obama. It is therefore more important for McCain’s organization to develop stories and events that will garner that sort of coverage. […]