Before we were unavoidably detained yesterday, the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza considered Barack Obama’s Clingy Kerfuffle by borrowing a question from Hoosier Axl Rose: “Where Do We Go Now?”
Cillizza looks at several factors which could cause Obama’s comments to become a blip or part of a larger Narrative — ads, polls, superdelegates, the PA results, media coverage of the Pope’s visit, and miscellaneous “X-Factors.” What follows is a look at most of the above, adding some factors Cillizza does not consider.
Polls: Cilliza’s suggests that poll results will be a major factor in whether the Clingy Kerfuffle has “legs,” though no poll results were available when he posted his analysis. However, as Survey USA noted even before releasing its latest numbers from PA (Clinton +14 ), “[w]ithin recent days, polls have shown Obama leading by 2, trailing by 20, or somewhere in between” and pollsters have struggled getting accurate results in recent PA elections. Polls from SUSA and Quinnipiac show little movement from prior results, but (as noted earlier) news takes time to fully settle in with voters and Democratic primary voters are less likely to be moved by Obama’s comments than the general electorate. (Willie Horton did not keep Michael Dukakis from the nomination.)
Even so, the crosstabs on the Quinnipiac poll show a a significant nine-point drop (from 60% to 51%) in his favorable rating among white men with no college degree, erasing progress Obama had made with that demographic. The crosstabs on the SUSA poll show that Obama may have held his ground in part by increasing his support among blacks from 74% to 82% — which was likely to happen in any event, based on past primaries. Strategic Vision has 55% of Democrats disagreeing with Obama’s comments and giving John McCain a 49%-39% margin in a head-to-head match-up. The LA Times/Bloomberg poll has similar omens benath the topline. In sum, I would be less opitmistic than Obama’s supporters seem to be about these polls, though I do not find them as important in the primaries as Cilliza seems to think they are.
Ads: Cilliza has Obama’s first post-clingy ad, which indirectly addresses the controversy, as well as a Hillary Clinton ad that takes direct aim at it. Cilliza has since posted Obama’s follow-up ad, which addresses his comments by including a clip of Clinton getting some boos when she raised the subject during an appearance at an Alliance for American Manufacturing forum.
Superdelegates: Cilizza asks whether Obama’s comments freeze superdelegates privately committed to Obama in their publicly undecided pose, or perhaps cause defections. However, as RCP’s Jay Cost noted Monday:
Clinton had a 97-delegate lead on February 10th. By March 9th, Obama had cut that lead to 39. But since then, despite all of these stories about Clinton having no real chance, Obama has netted just 13 super delegates. As a group, the super delegates have not moved. More than 40% remain uncommitted.
I think this is curious. They surely do not want a bitter convention battle, so why haven’t they brought an end to this? I think their reticence has to do with Obama’s terrible performance in Ohio. He not only lost, he was roundly defeated – even after his great victories in Wisconsin, Virginia, and Maryland. The nature of his defeat might be giving the super delegates pause.
Cost, presenting his usual tabular data, notes that Obama’s problem in Ohio was with white voters. He also refers to the analysis by Sean Oxendine noted here earlier, demostrating how poorly Obama has performed in Appalachian counties. Assuming that the superdelegates would prefer to avoid a bitter convention battle, the silence of the long-rumored privately committed Obama superdelegates may be a tell, even if they publicly profess that it is no big deal.
Alt-media: Cillizza does not mention this factor, but (expanding on a point about polls made above) political junkies too often presume that people are as up on news like this as they are.  Low-information voters might not have even begun to form impressions about the controversy before it popped up in monolgues from the clearly pro-Obama Jon Stewart or the more even-handed Jay Leno on Monday night. Some who get their news from the Internet, but who are not glued to political sites or blogs, might search for info via Google — where current trends show more interest in this story than in Clinton’s Bosnian bunkum.
Obama: The best indicator of whether the Clingy Kerfuffle’s potential to damage the Obama candidacy may be the actions of the campaign itself. From no less than the NYT:
First, a forceful rebuttal. Then, an explanation. And then, an apology. Yet in a speech here today, Senator Barack Obama seemed to offer another rationale for the self-inflicted brouhaha that has dominated the political debate for four days running.
That is not the behavior of a campaign whose internal polling is all rainbows and unicorns. Nor is the sudden reappearance of the American flag lapel pin (Ben Smith updates that it was given to Obama by a disabled vet at the event — and the source for that update, Ben?) Nor is it two response ads in four days, including one featuring your own supporters (spontaneously?) booing your rival on the subject. As with most any politician, what Obama does in response to this controversy is likely more revealing that what he says about it.
Update: The New York Daily News poll has Clinton ahead by only six points:
But experts said that the survey may not fully show the impact of Obama’s statements last week that small-town Americans are “bitter” over their economic status and “cling to guns or religion.”
“It’s too soon  you’d have to see polls taken Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,” said political consultant Neil Oxman. “It’s clear [internal] polling in both campaigns show an uptick in support for her and a downtick for him.”
As Glenn Reynolds would say, “Indeed.”
oh well, Obama and the economy are tanking….
but Hedge funds did great last year by ‘shorting’ the economy:
“Since 1913, the United States witnessed only one other year of such unequal wealth distribution  1928, the year before the stock market crashed, according to Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. Such inequality is likely to impede an economic recovery, he said.
“For a recovery to be robust and sustainable you can’t just have consumer demand at Nordstrom,†he said. “You need it at the little shop on the corner, too.â€Â
Despite the explosive growth of the industry  about 10,000 hedge funds operate worldwide  it is relatively lightly regulated. On Tuesday, two panels appointed by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. advised hedge funds to adopt guidelines to increase disclosure and risk management.
And Mr. Gross, the fund manager, warned that the widening divide among the richest and everyone else is cause for worry.
“Like at the end of the Gilded Age and the Roaring Twenties, we are going the other way,†Mr. Gross said. “We are clearly in a period of excess, and we have to swing back to the middle or the center cannot hold.”
Obama might have a chance if the economy shows it’s real colors by the end of summer otherwise we might have generalismo hoover sucking us dry.
and now Bush says climate change is real too.
oh well, the authority of PW is gone too.
Anybody out there on the ground in north Philly? A few years ago, I visited the Chew Mansion, a famous Revolutionary War site gobble up by the city, and to my surprise, I drove through black neighborhoods where crowds of women wore the black body tents (I forget the name — they were boubou’s in East Africa). I’d guess they represent a small minority and that Obama isn’t losing ground in those neighborhoods. Any insights on this community?
We’re in a period of excess? Excess of what? Do you mean, like how in the poor communities, everyone has satellite tvs and cellphones? They just don’t make the poor like they used to. Yes, we do need to shun this period of excess.
As for Bush and the climate change BS …it’s not the first time the president has let us down. And, just as scientific “consensus” doesn’t make good science, Presidential announcements don’t make it so either.
To stay on TOPIC (DD) – I say it’s time for more popcorn. This ride just goes on and one, doesn’t it?
I have two coworkers/friends with families in PA. One has people in Pittsburg, the other has people in Erie. Strangely enough, the one with people in Erie says her family is clinging hard to Obama. They perceive all of these negative stories as part of the Vast Right Wing Attack Noise Machine or whatever. The one whose family is in Pittsburg says they started out Hillary (due to their love of Bill and suspicion of Obama as not being a real black person). They wavered and considered Obama, but then said to hell with it and are now SOLIDLY in camp Hillary.
Interesting.
Which now includes Hillary Clinton. Oh, sweet irony, how I love thee!
No, they sure don’t.
Sitting his Appalachian cabin, Karl chambered a round in his Winchester 30-30 using its lever-action with cinematic effect. “What would the Rifle Man do if the he saw a brown Obama flapping his jowls 200-yards upwind?” Karl thought to himself. “Jesus of Nazareth, the King of the Jews, Mary and Joseph, even the bleedin’ archbishop of Dublin would squeeze a shot at that Southside bongo-playing boyo! Wing ’em on purpose, too, then administer his liast rights and sacraments with this here,” simultaneously Karly pats his Colt .45 while repeatedly making the sign of the cross.
“Shut your mouth, Obama! Ain’t bitter! You Crypto-fuckin’ Commie-lover!” Panting, “I will crush you flatter that sliced bologna!” Karl yelled, using a off-beat reference to Guinea sandwich meat. “You heah me! Swaggering Harvard jock!” Karl ran his sleeve under his chin after taking a hard pull from his Bud, “this is war, Monisgnor! Bitter you run!”
Sorry about the typos but I gotta run.
When did the Appalachians convert to Catholics?
Must have been the pedophelia.
thor has a hate-love relationship with Karl, bergerbilder. He hates the fact that he’s attracted to Karl. It’s the only way to explain it – the constant insults are exactly the way a pre-pubescent gets the attention of the one he has the crush on.
“Since 1913, the United States witnessed only one other year of such unequal wealth distribution  1928, the year before the stock market crashed, according to Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. Such inequality is likely to impede an economic recovery, he said.
I have to dispute this statement a bit. If you actually look at the data on the unequal wealth distribution, you will find another point when the wealth distribution was about the same .. just before the dot com bust, some 8 years ago.
Thanks, Mikey.
Mikey: thor is twitchy due to his gender confusion mandingo love of black football players who run 4.25 40’s and half black politicians with with angelic, hopeful voices.
It’s a sad condition called “Perpetual Stiffy Mandingo Dementia.”
thor has a hate-love relationship with Karl, bergerbilder.
Congrats, Karl – your first hormonal groupie!
And complete with the BDSM fetish.
Such inequality is likely to impede an economic recovery, he said.
Why – because the “poor” can only buy two cars instead of 10?
Yeah, but you figured that didn’t you? I mean, with the hammer and all…
Karl: If I were you I’d avoid getting a tan this year.
and no running…
Sorry about the typos but I’ve got the runs.
Fixed.
Yeah, but you figured that didn’t you? I mean, with the hammer and all…
Ha, no, I’d forgotten that. But it must be a little ball-peen hammer?
Think O is wishing he’d had that cling term abortion now?
I just overheard conversations in the cafeteria at work. The cling conversation is defeinitely being talked about here in PA. They also talked about Hillary dodging bullets in Boznia. I didn’t hear details, but it has clearly made its way into everyday conversation. I’m not sure it means anything, as the people I heard could have already been devoted to a candidate or be republicans. However, the polls mean nothing either. They are random samples that include many folks that won’t even get out and vote. Much depends on who gets out the vote, and what districts do that the best. Nothing counts but the final count.
Hee hee, yes Pablo: Skewered on the tip of thine own meme, alas.
“Ya heah what I said! Run, ya bitter gopher!” And before the r finished rolling off his tongue Karl’s bedroom shook from the light recoil yet thunderous sound after he squeezed off a solitary 30-30 round. The Appalachian yonder briefly echoed Karl’s warning.
Click, Clack! Karl chambered another round, drew a short pull from his Bud can, leaned his 30-30 against the wall next to 3 others of the same make and model and then began to speak as if addressing the Nation.
“See, thing is, work ain’t everything!”
“Damn uptown Negro sure’s shit should know that.”
“Obama talking to me? To me! Appalachian man don’t him around, anyhow!”
“Here country not doing right by its citizens if a man like that can be a President!”
Obama’s gaining. Even the gun owning, six pack, 4 wd, guys are knowing what Obama’s saying about the economy. If he keeps the attention on the economy he can win even though the winning smile of McCain is pretty hard to beat.
carin… no way keeping this train only on Obama’s weirdness… He ain’t so weird to the working crowd as he’s speaking the truth. Now, McCain’s giveaway to the oil companies in cutting to zero fed. gas taxes (only 18+ per gallon…lowest of all Trilateral countries__) wouldn’t do anything to solve the problem as the monopolistic speculators would raise the price of crude to new extremes as their short term gains are so mighty they can feed 7 generation of their’s with walled compounds and luxury with all the Blackwater Security that money can buy.
(above is mistaken) Clinton’s later years in office prior to dot com saw a dramatic decrease in income inequality.. not enough to get back to middle class America prior to Reagan’s devolution of the middle class but an improvement over Bush One. Since then dramatic increases in income inequality have been the norm.
Keep ridin’ that Appaloosa Obama, thor, and slow poken’ Karl won’t keep a bead on ya.
If by “gaining” you mean cratering, you have a point.
We’re talking a Chicxulub-level event here.
Sorry.
Bigot.
there’s got to be a bar named that!
ChicXuClub: In Yucatan. thx for the wiki…never saw the name of that dinosaur killer before.