Just in time for Petraeus’s testimony, the mini-Tet that failed.
A GAMBLE that proved too costly.
That’s how analysts in Tehran describe events last month in Basra. Iran’s state-run media have de facto confirmed that this was no spontaneous “uprising.” Rather, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tried to seize control of Iraq’s second-largest city using local Shiite militias as a Trojan horse.
Tehran’s decision to make the gamble was based on three assumptions:
* Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki wouldn’t have the courage to defend Basra at the risk of burning his bridges with the Islamic Republic in Iran.
* The international force would be in no position to intervene in the Basra battle. The British, who controlled Basra until last December, had no desire to return, especially if this meant getting involved in fighting. The Americans, meanwhile, never had enough troops to finish off al-Qaeda-in-Iraq, let alone fight Iran and its local militias on a new front.
* The Shiite clerical leadership in Najaf would oppose intervention by the new Iraqi security forces in a battle that could lead to heavy Shiite casualties.
The Iranian plan – developed by Revolutionary Guard’s Quds (Jerusalem) unit, which is in charge of “exporting the Islamic Revolution” – aimed at a quick victory. To achieve that, Tehran spent vast sums persuading local Iraqi security personnel to switch sides or to remain neutral.
Do you know why it failed? Because of teh neo-con fellating press!
Ah, so that’s why Petraeus suspended troop withdrawals.
From what I understand Basra was pretty much an Iraqi operation, and they did well. Good news as an indicator of their training status.
Where’s the link? This isn’t from the Frank rich column is it?
Thanks!
All I can say is why isn’t the United States Air Force pounding the crap out of Tehran right now?
Are we so cowed by the traitors in our midst that we can’t act in the interest of our nation?
Holy OHbamajehosaphat!
This no action policy being applied for acts of war on two nations is really pissing me off. I hope W regrows a pair and brings the pain.
If so, you might not see me for a while.
I’m still not tossing my confetti. It is indeed a good sign for Iraqis to battle the jihadists, rather than us (ambiguity intended). But Salafi Burnout is years overdue, may it quickly come.
Here, here, SGT Ted!
aaaaaah. It’s like finding the bit with the hub of the waterwheel on it — the rest of the puzzle just sort of falls into place. I don’t know this, mind, but see if you don’t think it hangs together.
Mookie isn’t hiding. He’s being held.
Look: Sahid al-Sadr was a thorn in the side of Saddam Hussein. His son set out to be the same sort of irritant, and worked among the poor of Saddam/Sadr City to build the Mahdi Army, because Daddy’s tactics weren’t sufficient. Muqtada wanted force at his disposal.
But he’s stupid. The Iranians came and offered him help, and he took them up on it. Then when he ran into trouble they offered him asylum, and he took them up on it. Quds Force smiled, patted him on the back, and took over the forces he had put together, then proceeded to use them for their purposes — and with Mookie safely stashed at Qom and his car keys in the local mullah’s bureau drawer, they can pass “orders from al-Sadr” with no danger of contradiction. Is it not sweet?
What Muqtada al-Sadr wants is the betterment of the poor Shi’ia of Iraq and Baghdad. He’s a dumbass whose definition of “betterment” could use a lot of refinement, and he fully intends to bask in the power, fame, glory, and recognition (groupies!) when he succeeds, but he’s at least as sincere about it as any politician, perhaps more so. The Iranians have no such motive.
Yeah, the mullahs of Iran are low-key imperialists, and more important they want to see the Caliphate established with themselves in the driver’s seat. Yeah, they want to do the Great Satan as many in the eye as is convenient. But they do have more immediate concerns, right next door.
Arabs and Persians don’t like one another. Saddam invaded Iran twice, and got much farther with the second one than anyone in Teheran could possibly find comfortable. The mullahs don’t want a cohesive Iraq of any type; they want maximum disruption and mess, so that nobody puts an army together and starts the Hussein Memorial Invasion. That doesn’t square at all with Muqtada al-Sadr’s goals, but it sure as Hell fits like a glove with the capability of the force he’s raised, made of frustrated ignorant poor people with few arms and no cohesive leadership. Such a force can’t build for shit, but it can sure smash, and that’s what the Iranians are using it for, or trying to. Meanwhile Muqtada is wandering around Qom, trying to hitch a ride to Baghdad, and strangely enough the buses don’t seem to be running on time, and the van’s out of gas and no ration coupons…
The Iranians aren’t trying to resist the Americans, although that happens as a byproduct, because Americans want to build a structure. What the Iranians want is a mess, and it’s irrelevant who actually makes it. They aren’t trying to build anything. And as badly as Maliki and the Iraqis did, they did manage to frustrate that particular initiative, for which I hope our guys over there are praising them to the skies. Armies run on mythology, and there is no more unifying mythology than “hey, we beat their sorry asses” — and no better way to establish it than to have the people who beat the shit out of you say “hey, not too shabby, guys” and know it’s true.
I don’t know if it’s Petraeus himself or one of his aides — I’d bet on the latter, but I don’t know — but what this says is that Kasserine Pass is over, Sicily is well under way, and experienced officers are being transferred to England to pass the lessons-learned on. Well done, guys and gals!
Regards,
Ric
Is Greenwald still in denial about Iran’s involvement in Iraq, that we do not have sufficient proof for his exalted standards or some equivalent crapola?
All I can say is why isn’t the United States Air Force pounding the crap out of Tehran right now? Are we so cowed by the traitors in our midst that we can’t act in the interest of our nation?
Yes. Democrats like Iran and what the do to our troops.
Ric,
Trust me, the IA is feeling better about itself right now – the jinood I see sure act with a bit more pep in their step lately. Can’t go into much more detail – but they sure are ready if there is a round two… off to catch a helo, bye for now!
Ric, by the way, neato for mentioning the gals. When I was in the Navy, we had nothing but contempt for the women sailors, unless somebody was banging one. They never had to do sea duty, used any excuse to get out of duty and other complaints. Today, they’re out there and I’ve seen no degredation in our forces power. I’m sure there’s still a lot of bitching, and crappy girl stuff at times, but you know, if you’re brave enough to join and go to those places. Excellent.
Heh. We may be creating something genuinely new: the first Arab army since the sixteenth century that doesn’t suck. It’s worthwhile to consider what that might mean from the point of view of its neighbors.
Regards,
Ric