TPM’s Josh Marshall is baffled by the racial voting patterns in the Democratic presidential campaign:
In so many words, perhaps the pattern is that Obama does well in states with large black populations (at least in terms of primaries) and states with very small black populations. The problem is in states with substantial but not particularly large African-American populations in which you have a deep-seated and pre-existing racial politics that ends up playing in Clinton’s favor. This, if the theory is right, would explain why Obama does well in the Mountain West and the South but has a harder time in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.
I think this is part of an explanation. But I don’t think it adequately deals with all the admittedly small set of data we have. How, for instance, does it account for Obama’s victories in Missouri, Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut among other states? The first three of those in particular suggest that the pattern is not that simple.
Had Marshall put his finely-honed investigative skills to work, he might have thought to take some unique phrase from his post — e.g., “Obama does well in states with large black populations” — and plugged it into Google.
Voila! The very first page of results yields not only Brendan Nyhan’s analysis of this pattern, but also posts by Marc Ambinder and yours truly noting Nyhan’s analysis.
Granted, this may not be award-winning journalism — but with a little practice Marshall could be navigating this system of tubes like a pro.
Some of these might help.
I am curious, if republicans would have black candidate running for nomination neck in neck with the white one
1. what would the voting patterns be
2. and if that situation is ever possible
which, in the latter case it seems to me , is the real truth.
As far as your observation on voting patterns in the democratic party primaries, Karl, you are absolutely correct,and Josh’s bafflement(?)/befuddlement is of surprise for the guy who lived through many racial controversies in different places of our diverse planet…
“I am curious, if republicans would have black candidate running for nomination neck in neck with the white one…”
1. what would the voting patterns be
Cluebat #1: The Right, including some 65%+ that can’t stand McGramps, is about to unite behind him.
2. and if that situation is ever possible
Cluebat #2: Condi is way up there on McOldDudes VP list. If it happens, prepare yourself for massive cranial explosions on the Left.
See also Colin Powell, though I’m still in Micheal Steele mode.
I think Marshall’s noticed that Greenwald’s brand of cutting-edge investigative journalism sells, plus it’s not quite so much work.
if Condi is VP, the explosions will follow all over the place…left and right
– “if Condi is VP, the explosions will follow all over the place…left and right”
Cluebat #3: Now that the rank closet racism has been un-masked forevah in the ranks of the Left sashal, hang on to that dream really tight. You may need it desperately soon.
– ….And if thats too nuanced for you, maybe you’re about to learn the true power of the extremes to influence polity on each side of the aisle. You think?
– For myself, with Condi on the ticket I could actual cast My vote with a smile on my face. I have a feeling I wouldn’t be alone.
Hunter, I do not think racism has an ideological leanings- Left or right.
And as for the point of Karl’s analysis about voting patterns, no surprise there.
One could actually live through the similar situation in one’s life time.
The Caucus nations. First there was very minuscule amount of their representatives in Moscow, so nobody actually paid attention.
Then after the perestroika the number of them grew fast and they quickly took some prominent positions in some areas of economy and cultural life, which brought resentment , disagreement from the locals-racial tensions.
Now after not that many years and number of this guys living constantly in Moscow doubled or tripled , when they are your neighbors now and communicate with you amicably all the time, when they work next to you in the office etc, etc,. The mood is starting to change to general acceptance now….
I see the parallels with Karl’s analysis.
– Hunter leans over the weapons firing panel, flashes his NSC credentials, and says to Petty Officer 1st Class sashal with a wink and a nod, and a toothy grin, “…Ok son…..if anyone asks you, that torpedo never exploded, and I was never here.”
“#Comment by sashal on 4/3 @ 6:56 am #
if Condi is VP, the explosions will follow all over the place…left and right”
Naw, it’s the Democrats who are the racists in this country.
Remember, The Democrat Party is the party of the four S’s: slavery, secession, segregation and socialism.
I do not think racism has an ideological leanings- Left or right
Look at the treatment of JC Watts, Condi, and Clarence Thomas, by the eft, and compare and contrast to William Jefferson, Cynthia McKinney, and Julian Bond.
“Comment by sashal on 4/3 @ 7:21 am #
Hunter, I do not think racism has an ideological leanings- Left or right.”
Nope, it’s purely a leftist phenomenon.
I do not think racism has an ideological leanings- Left or right
Except, racism on the left is destined to exist foreva because it’s existence is denied. It’s policies that affect minorities negatively are protected under the umbrella that they are the party that cares. For instance: Are urban schools inferior? YES, and for a variety of reasons. But, the left controls the schools, and any time change is proposed by the right, the RACIST mantra is dragged out.
So, who is -as a party – more racist, if racism can be viewed through the lens of policies that affect minorities unfavorably.
Of course, what do I know? Because I’m the biggest racist on this blog, right?
racism on the left is destined to exist foreva because it’s existence is denied
That’s a very good point,Carin, you know how communists praised themselves in being internationalists, and worrying for the fate of black folks in the USA, while on the other hand engaging in all kinds of racist politics, exile of some minoritie nations to the steppes of Kazakhstan, anti-semitism on the government level, etc…
But the claim that racism does not exist on the right from some of our co-bloggers is just pure bullshit
“I do not think racism has an ideological leanings- Left or right”
I believe racism is ideologically left. Remember Ed Rendell (Gov. of Penn) said that some whites wouldn’t vote for a black man. Who did the GOP nominate to run against Rendell? A black man – Lynn Swan. When Rendell said that some whites wouldn’t vote for a black man, he was speaking of the Democratic primary – not a single conservative in that voting pool.
It appears that the Dems are about to nominate their first Black Liberation/Full on Marxist for Prez…this is just brilliant as the examples of success for this type of leadership is readily available, just look at Zimbawe and South Africa…not to mention the Detroit Mayor of NY Governor. Never, ever trust a Liebral!
–“But the claim that racism does not exist on the right from some of our co-bloggers is just pure bullshit”
– sashal, with all due respect, I doubt that anyone with even the most cursory grasp of American politics would float the idea that racism is absent on either side. Thats the sort of deflectional dodge you generally hear coming from someone with partisan motive.
– Whats being said, for the third time, is that the extent of racism in politics, is by far, greater on the Left. Its a matter of degree.
– No one could have been watching this primary season with any understanding what so ever, and fail to see the truth of the matter at this point.
– In fact, by the time this cycle is over, it might well be best remembered for the unusually clear manner in which it has defined, and crystallized, the true nature of both parties.
And that in terms of policy the left is much more comfortable with and driven by racism.
[…] Had Collins availed herself of Google, she could find plenty of analysis — some of it informed analysis — about the white male vote in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. She even would have […]
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