Following the InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll on the Obama-Wright-Trinity controversy discussed here yesterday, I thought it only fair to note two new polls that have better — though not much better — news for Barack Obama.
Rasmussen reports that among likely voters who have seen or heard some of Obama’s speech on the controversy, 51% said it was good or excellent, 26% said fair, and 21% gave the Senator’s remarks a grade of poor. But opinions divided sharply along partisan and racial lines in ways not all that favorable to Obama. Only 53% of unaffiliated voters — and only 45% of white voters — said the speech was good or excellent. Moreover, 56% of likely voters remain concerned about the issue, including 45% of Democrats and 36% of blacks. Even more troubling for Camp Obama, only 30% of likely thought the speech was racially unifying. The ongoing Rasmussen tracking polling shows Obama’s “very unfavorables” jumped eight or nine percent since the speech.
CBS News reports similarly good reviews for the speech from a poll of registered voters, but also finds that when “asked if Obama would unite the country, however, 52 percent said yes – down from 67 percent last month.” CBS makes much of the fact that this poll re-interviewed people it polled before the speech, finding that most voters following the events say they will make no difference in their vote. For whatever reason, CBS fails to mention that the initial CBS poll found that a third say it has made them feel more negative about Obama, including 36% of independents. In the follow-up, six percent of registered voters who supported Obama over John McCain before the speech say they are now less likely to support Obama.
These polls demonstrate one of my recurring themes, which is that interpreting public opinion polls is as much art as science. An overwhelming majority gives Obama good grades for the speech. And the samples here are of registered voters and likely voters, which makes them more immediately relevant to Obama than the Insider Advantage poll of adults (if subject to a higher margin of error due to smaller sample sizes). Yet the internals suggest that most people did not find Obama’s speech racially unifying, find the Wright issue unresolved, and increasingly doubt Obama’s ability to be a uniter. Judging the speech by what it was attended to accomplish, the polling to date suggests it was a failure.
So, he’s practically clinched the nomination, and now he implodes?
Rove, you magnificent bastard!
Hey, whatever else you think about Obama, he will fix your computer – and more. Check it out here: http://obamawill.com
As usual, the polls end up asking questions that confuse the issue rather than clarifying it. This is partly because of preconceptions, but also because there’s a maximum number of questions they can ask in any given poll. “How many questions the person will answer” is itself a filter for respondents, and a fairly strong one.
In this case, they are confusing technical excellence — which the speech has, in spades; beautifully constructed and delivered, it was — with effectiveness in terms of explaining the subject and convincing the audience that the speaker’s take is a correct one. For me, at any rate, its effectiveness in that sense was nil to negative, and it seems to me that the poll data says I have a lot of company.
Regards,
Ric
The numbers Karl cites for Obama speech closely mirror public opinion about the war in Iraq.
I wonder if there isn’t some correlation.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/10/opinion/polls/main930772.shtml
and that was in 2005………
miss kkkleo is as predictable as a shitstorm after $15 worth of Taco Bell as a midnight snack.
“and that was in 2005………
You should get out more often. It’s 2008 in the real world.
Akats – Miss Kkkleo is focused on ensuring that we lose in Iraq. It is her reason for being. That and being a living breathing testament to the dangers of pre traumatic stress disorder.
It was historic. Grandma and Geraldine are fucked.
JD, it’s not about race, it’s about teh quagmire.
REALIST!!!1!!!
[…]
Wait a minute…
Semanticleo:
Bush won a second term in spite of the war in Iraq. And right now in spite of his strong support of that war McCain is actually polling ahead of the Democrats and most polls show that Americans are more confident of support in Iraq than they have been for some time…and most polls state that Americans do not want the US to pull out before Iraq is secure…so what are you talking about? I mean really?
Only the voices in her head know for sure.
“so what are you talking about? I mean really?”
Anything, Anything! Anything to get the focus of this blog off of the very ugly progeny of the Democrats’ embrace of identity politics and back to that Evil Chimpy McHalliBushitler (who is not running for re-election)! Does cleo have to draw a diagram for you drooling wingnuts?
Ugh. When I read McCain-friendly Reuters crap like this I can’t help but get a sick feeling that George Soros has already won.
Oh. A pajama-lanchey thinger. I think I will go visit them and read many interesting posts.
Iraq is NOT a war, it’s a campaign and therefor part of a war. Anyone who calls Iraq a war is ignorant and should be ignored until they become educated on the subject of war.
Nobody likes war, they are sometimes necessary, but never liked.
As far as the polling on Iraq. Patton said it best; ‘America loves a winner’.
Win or lose in Iraq, the war will continue. Any American politician that claims they can “end the war” is lying. I think it would be unconstitutional for a President to surrender to AQ and order America to convert to Islam, trash the Constitution and return to the 7th century.
The Soccer Moms would have his liver for a hood ornament.
Anyone with an I.Q above room temperature should have concluded B.O.’s speech affirmed his and his wife’s “White People and America Hating” dogma. It was obvious prior to the Wright rant. Michelle confirmed their “Hate America and White People” with her statement. If your I.Q is above room temperature and you don’t concur , get retested as you have become a “Useful Idiot”.
American Christian “Typical White Person” Dago Infidel
Michael Canzano
“Miss Kkkleo is focused on ensuring that we lose in Iraq. It is her reason for being. That and being a living breathing testament to the dangers of pre traumatic stress disorder.”
Granted, JD. But even though AQ is hurtin’ for certain right now, one would think that they could find a more credible agent.
I don’t know about you, but it is fun to watch the unraveling Obama-drama. What was known to only the most attentive observers became painfully obvious to all. Obama ain’t no racial healer – but rather a slick snake oil salesman. He is very, very slick, I grant you that, but poor Obama had to square the circle – and this is cumbersome to do for even the smartest of the smart.
As you have heard, it was recently discovered by the astonished crowds that a presidential candidate with an untreatable messianic complex was an active member of a radical anti-American bigoted cult, which goes by the name of “Trinity United Churchâ€Â. If I have to guess, the word “Trinity†refers to the group’s anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism and demand for government handouts. At least, they did not say it was a Holy Trinity. So now, the over-exposed Messiah is trying to reconcile his public image of a moderate high principled figure and the obvious truth. How exactly is he supposed to do so? Personally, I don’t exactly see any way for him to bamboozle the American electorate – because the issue is too clear-cut. For people who don’t get this simple truth I can only say that it’s amazing they can breath on their own, let alone why they are allowed to decide who will be the next president of the United States of America. This article is written for the rest of the public – and more specifically, the right-wing progressives who never had any illusions about Obambi.
I will start by stating the obvious – for 20 years Obama was an active member of an extremist church. Throughout the years he became very close with the pastor of the church – the very same guy who was screaming at the top of his lungs – “God Damn Americaâ€Â. I don’t know if the pastor was high on drugs or it was an acute case of indigestion – but his parishioners seemed to agree with his message. Moreover, Obama used this pastor as his political, spiritual, and no doubt sexual advisor. I suppose it is also necessary to add that Obama was not 5 years old when he joined this cult – he was a graduate of the Harvard Law School, a former editor of prestigious Harvard Law Review. In other words, he was a highly educated successful adult. Clearly, he made his decision willingly, and consciously. He knew exactly what he was doing, and he knew the guys he was befriending. There are two possible explanations for this – either he joined the cult because he believed in all the garbage that was spewed there, or he did it to advance his political career. Either of these explanations makes him unelectable. Why did he join this church and continued attending it for 20 years? When did he find out that his soul mate and advisor for 20 years was an anti-American fascist? When did he find out that his pastor was a supporter of Muamar Kaddafi, a terrorist and a bloody dictator of Libya? When did he find out the church that he attended for 20 years proclaims that blacks should not join the middle class? When did he find out that his buddy considered Israel to be a terror nation? What could be a good answer to these questions? The guy is either a complete imbecile, or a very bad liar.
Yesterday, Obama decided to deal with the issue head on. Long gone were the “I never heard him say any nasty things†denials. They did not ring true to anyone who has an IQ higher than the room temperature. So, the Messiah decided to talk to the nation, explain his position, clear up the air. Amazingly, Obama chose an interesting way of explaining his associations with the unseemly character – he lectured the American people on the race relationships. Which is equivalent to a robber, who stands up in court and explains the bewildered public that they need to earn their living and that stealing is immoral. Well, it’s all nice, but who the fuck are you to talk to us in this manner? Shouldn’t you clean up your act first? In the immortal words of Hippocrates, “heal yourself first, bitchâ€Â.
The speech was no doubt well constructed, and it clearly aimed to impress the people of lower intelligence. As one may have expected, Obama threw some white folks under the bus. What was not expected was that he would choose his own grandmother to sacrifice. According to Obama, she is a “typical white person†who is a racist and a bigot. I don’t exactly know why he did it – I suppose for one, he wanted to remind the white electors that he was also half white, so they should not take all the racist demagoguery from his pastor close to their hearts. Moreover, he obviously did not mind his grand-mother’s bigotry very seriously – which meant to say that racism is okay from all sides. In other words, Obama was ready to unite all racists and bigots in one big tent and then commandeer this crowd to bring the racial reconciliation to America. This is somewhat counter-intuitive to me, if you know what I mean. In the meantime, he also threw the blacks under the bus – according to Obama most blacks are racist, who hide their feelings from the white folks – but when they feel comfortable among their people – hell, they say really nasty things. And yes, they do believe in them. Notice a pathetic parade of black “leaders†on television asserting exactly same thing – yes, we are all like reverend Wright, he is one of us, we all talk like that, we all think like that. Well, if it is true (and I sure hope it is not), then how exactly are we supposed to get the racial reconciliation?! Heck, how can any voter trust any black politician? He may say nice things to us in public, but as you know that when he is with other blacks, you can see him wearing his black robe.
Of course, these are not the conclusions that Obama wanted us to make – but he was in a tight spot. Firstly, he could not completely disavow Wright because this would have raised even more questions on his authenticity. How can anyone trust him? For twenty years Obama is close buddies with bigots, Wright becomes his closest advisor, Obama regularly goes to his church – but when the shit hits the fan, Obama treats Wright as if he is radioactive. No doubt Obama looked at this perspective and decided to dance around the issue – but it’s not easy. In chess this situation is called “Zugzwang†– every move makes you weaker. In short, Obama was fucked from the start and no fancy talking could get him out of the hole.
One of Obama’s excuse was that he was too close with the community of the church of holy anti-semitism. One can find an interesting angle on the situation by recalling the infamous “I have a scream†presidential candidate and the current head of the Democrat Party, Howard Dean. As you may remember, Howard left his church because he disagreed with its decision on the bike path. And just to drive the point even further, Howard is not a godless atheist – he is a self-professed biblical scholar, who takes religion very seriously. It would be very educational to watch his response when he is tracked by the ruthless journalists and asked about his view on Obambi’s enthusiastic participation in an anti-American cult. Is anti-American propaganda more damaging to a pastor than a refusal to build a bike path? Howard, tell us what you think…
The response to his speech was not surprising. The usual suspects thought that his speech was courageous, inspiring, and a huge risk to his political career as well as a revolutionary expose on race in America. A more sober analysis shows that Obama carefully constructed a “cover your ass†speech, which had been designed solely to save his political career. Can someone tell me – if the speech was so courageous – who exactly did Obama risk to alienate with this speech? How would any liberal change the speech and make it less “courageousâ€Â, and more politically beneficial to Obama? To ask these questions is to answer them. It’s all a game, nothing more. Obama is playing the public, playing the liberals, playing the media. I hope, only the last two are stupid enough to be caught in the game, and that the public is smart enough to know the truth. And the polls show that this is indeed the case. You can deceive liberals all the time, but it won’t work on the silent majority. After all, there is a good reason why America is the greatest country on Earth. If Americans were as stupid as some people think – it would not be so rich.
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