Given Sen. Barack Obama’s sweep of last night’s “Potomac Primaries,” there will probably ba a fair amount of press about his surge in momentum, or the purported “reality of the math,” with analysis like this from the respected electoral expert Charlie Cook:
Colby College political scientist and delegate selection expert Anthony Corrado calls Wisconsin’s Feb. 19 primary “the gateway to Texas and Ohio.” Indeed, Wisconsin will likely play a decent-size role, as it bridges today’s primaries and the March 4 Buckeye and Lone Star state primaries.
If Obama’s winning streak continues through Wisconsin, it’s entirely plausible that his momentum going into Ohio and Texas will prevent (Sen. Hillary) Clinton from having a sorely needed victory week. Should that happen, it would be quite hard for Clinton to get back in the race.
Folks will be salivating over the polls, from the PPP poll showing Obama +11 (but 10% undecided) and the ARG poll showing Clinton +9 (with 8% undecided), with the new Strategic Vision poll showing Obama +4 (and 14% undecided).
In reality, Obama could win Wisconsin and get no momentum going into Texas and Ohio.
RCP’s Jay Cost has done a two-parter on the subject. In “On the State of the Democratic Race” — like some of the other number-crunchers mentioned previously — looked at exit poll data and the aggregate or statewide vote totals to identify influential groups in the race. Many of these are obvious or already known to PW readers (blacks, Hispanics, women, etc.), but Cost also found that southern whites tend to support Clinton, while northern whites split their support between Clinton and Obama according to gender. Using an OLS regression model , Cost further found that caucus states , states with high median income, and “homogeneously white” states all tend to support Obama.
In today’s entry, “The Democratic Race Moving Forward,” Cost uses that model not to predict outcomes as much as to look at the issue of momentum and to identify which states will be more or less hospitable to either candidate.ÂÂ
As usual, I would RTWT, but the first of Cost’s conclusions is that talk of the death of the Clinton campaign may be “a bit hasty.” He notes that the Potomac Primary states – and the the contests held last weekend — were “tailor-made for a candidate that fuses the coalitions of Hart and Jackson, and one who inspires tremendous enthusiasm among his supporters,” concluding:
In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton’s losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her big problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week.
This is not to say that momentum is not playing a role. The point here is more modest: if it is playing a role, it is currently undetectable.
Cost adds the caveat that such momentum could develop, but that it is unlikely, given the general strengths of both candidates. (For those truly averse to number-crunching, I would point folks to Big Tent Democrat’s basic breakdown of the Maryland vote at TalkLeft for a demonstration that Obama’s win there is in line with the prior demographic trends of the race.)
Cost then reviews the remaining sixteen state contests, concluding:
All in all, this implies a rough parity from here until the end of the primary season. Approximately speaking, neither candidate seems to have an advantage in the remaining contests. So, my suggestion to readers is not to get caught up in the “Obama is inevitable” storyline. The remaining states suggest that we will soon hit pockets of Clinton’s strength. Minimally, we should all remember how well the “Clinton is inevitable” storyline worked out five months ago!
Cost apparently forgot about Puerto Rico, though. Shame on him!
As impressed as I generally am with Cost’s analyses, it is also worth reading Democratic (ex-Mystery) pollster Mark Blumenthal on the limitations of these sorts of regression analyses: (1) the data is imperfect; (2) even more robust models are not sufficiently predictive (Cost’s predicitve power is 69%, which he admits is not good enough for “publishable” predicitons when the candidates are separated by small margins); and demographics are not destiny — the actual campaigns matter.
I have no idea how TX or OH will go. And I have no idea how closely related WI dems and OH dems are idealogically. I know they both have universities in the Big 10. But forecasting a primary in TX based on results in WI seems naive to me.
Here’s the other thing about TX. Open primaries. And in the more rural parts of the state, people who would never consider voting for a Dem at the state or national level, vote in the democratic primary because that’s where the action is at the local level. Texas, like a lot of southern states has been abandoned by the Democratic party over the past 25 – 30 years and now votes reliably Republican at the state and national level. But the local politicians haven’t caught up yet. So there will be significant numbers of us who can’t stand the thought of either an Obamma or a Clinton presidency who will be voting in the Democratic primary so that we can have a voice in local issues. And I think most of us will cast whatever vote we think will fuck the Dems the hardest. How much of an impact this will have on the overall results? I don’t know. The huge majority of Texans live in Houston, San Antone, and DFW and I think the local politics mirrors the national a little closer in the cities.
It’s Wisconsin, criminy. Obama’s got a lot of cheesiness in him and probably has a big schlangenstein if what they say is twoo. You know how they are about sausages in Wisconsin. He could be the weiner the world awaited there. If he puts on a Green Bay jersey it’s all over baby.
The fact is that Hillary! has lost the love of a great swath of her most important supporters, the media, who, now that they have someone more liberal and !!black!! to unquestioningly champion, have decided to start reporting on all the Hillary stuff they have buried for years. That has had an effect but I think the thing that will sink her is the very nature of many Dem voters. This is a group who make decisions based primarily on emotion and, apparently, it “feels” better to vote for Obama. As such she is screwed.
In any case it will be fun to watch the media have a field day with a McCain vs Obama election. I predict a McCain meltdown followed by a 49 state landslide Obama victory. Given McCain’s despicable tactics against Romney (characterizing Romney’s criticism of Bob Dole as disparaging his courage and military service, one of the most despicable things I’ve ever seen a Republican do in a primary) I plan on watching with detached amusement as every criticism he makes of Obama is turned into a racial attack by a media fully invested in racial politics and Obama victory. I fully expect at least half the country to think McCain is in the Klan by the time the election comes around. Couldn’t happen to a bigger a$$hole.
hehe
this isnt the first time ive been called a moron
but at least im not alone
i dig the guy
really
also..i guess im pissed at the republicans for a different reason than jeffieG
they convolved MY party, the party of freedom FROM religion, with xianity.
praps there are more like me.
paybacks are hell
btw have u noticed that OUTRAGE! just isnt workin so good for the “right” anymore?
hotairs islambashing just aint pullin the audience it it usta.
robert spencers comments are lower than bilarys online donation count
zomg!
i think i will stay a republican
FOR THE DEMOGRAPHICS
nishi,
Given that Huckabee will not be the nominee — and in all probability not the veep nominee — your claim about the party being taken over falls flat. Knowing your background, you might want to look at actual data. Huck voters are going to be fine with McCain without Huck on the ticket. I’m guessing you havent undertaken a scientific exam of evangelcals, because if you had, you would already know this.
I am amused that you claim to be all about science, when most everyone of your posts here is based on completely ignoring Obama’s record in what read like little girly love notes to the Obamessiah.
It’s called cognitive dissonance. Google it.
While you are Googling, have a look at Obama’s Church: http://tinyurl.com/2hvytb
Tell me how hip you think they are going to be to your pet science projects.
nishi – Have you got your Hannah Montana tickets yet?
pfft
he an bilary have both committed to ESCR
rove sold me an the rest of the scientific community out to keep the evangelical support.
he and bush both LIED about the existin stem cell lines and ASCR.
an yah, evangelicals exist
they self define
all this crap about us bein an xian nation, xian values in the constitution?
bs
im freed of my obligation to vote republican because of success in Iraq.
im a registered republican an im votin for Obama.
;)
nishi – Rove wasn’t running for any office.
btw Karl….dont u EVER patronize me….
ive forgotten more than u will ever know about the biology of
belief
Rove lied about Science.
so hes satan
hehe
nishi,
I’m not patronizing you. I’m saying: (a) regardless of esoteric studies of the biology of belief, the data I’m discussing are opinion polling data of evangelicals, both inside this campaign and outside it — McCain will appeal to evangelicals without putting Huck on the ticket or changing his positions; (b) when you come here and write that it’s so great that Obama is a blank slate and so inspiring, while ignoring his record, I’m going to call you on it.
And I will note, as almost anyone else who engages you her does, that when you type in near-l33t from your crackberry (or whatever), there will be a tendency for people to treat you less seriously. I take you seriously (when warranted on the merits), but perhaps your experience on this makes you a little over-sensitive to it.
nishi,
Also note McCain’s positions on embryonic stem cell research. Because it sounds like you are blaming him for positions he does not hold.
nishi – Do u evr intract w humnz in ur evryday lif?
no mostly machines
I really don’t get at all how nishi’s idiom is like so offputting. A lot of people use a whole lot more words to say a lot less.
hf,
I would guess the reaction to nishi’s style is generational or tech-averse (or both). IIRC, nishi is usually texting, so I get the desire to shortcut instead of standard English. But to older people who have not fully engaged her, nishi’s stuff probably viscerally looks like the stuff their teeenage daughters do on their cellphones. Moreover, nishi is generally trying to present complex and esoteric theory in that format, which likely causes some to think she is just b.s.ing them. Many of her thoughts require unpacking, but don’t seem like it, due to the near-l33t in which it is presented. So that’s two obstacles.
I think it’s also generational in the sense that older people see that style not simply as “young” but immature or inexperienced (even though it is usually not). I doubt that nishi would put her resume in that format, due to the first impression it would make. A similar dynamic applies to people who encounter her for the first time on blog with a demo that is not all l33ty.
It’s not generational. I just think it’s b.s.
Good points, but still, it’s the future I’m pretty sure. We need exemplars cause really there’s a lot that are flat out doing it wrong. But I know what you mean. How old people are all monosyllabic on messenger and can’t express anything of any complexity like that is amusing but also, um, cautionary. Just right there you end up creating a network in the office that the old people really only kind of suspects exists. Some day I could be that guy. That would suck.
Whereas she doesn’t care at all about the ongoing impression she creates here. I also don’t think the reaction to it is “generational or tech-averse.” I think the purpose of language is to communicate, and if one has the ability to make communication clear for the benefit of those with whom one is communicating, failing/refusing to do so is disrespectful. It is immature in that sense.
It also reminds me, and I think more than a few of us here, of a certain other person for whom the term “debonics” was coined. Situationally therefore, it’s not too different from a blackface minstrel act being booked at an Urban League convention.
oh i waz here for deb
i waz standin right next to jeff when she made her faux apolo
i remember that
very bad things
i did put my resume in this format…i sent a job application to Blizzard last week
this isnt txtmsg….its l33t
its gamerspk
i told pablo i was in prison last year but that is only allegorically tru
i was helpin with a sick relative an playin a whole lot of escapist online games
No, it has to do with being literate.
I’ve been on the Internet since 1989. I was on BBSs before that. Yeah, there are people who can’t spell, people who can’t use grammar properly. Usually those people at least try, and I can easily make allowances for people who try.
But nishi doesn’t try. Nishi’s style isn’t just childish, it’s actively hostile towards the audience. It’s an open statement that she thinks so little of the audience, of her thoughts, that she won’t take a second to even attempt to write properly.
If you want to communicate ideas, do so in a manner that focuses the audience on your ideas, not on trying to decipher the words.
And, nishi, if a resume ever came across my desk that was written in that style, it would break the sound barrier on the way to the trash. If I can’t trust another programmer to be able to communicate clearly, I can’t trust them to be able to think clearly. I would be surprised if the reaction’s any different at Blizzard; their schedules, requirements, and communication needs make mine look like child’s play.
You need to distinguish between the affectations of their adolescent audience and the needs of the actual business.
this isnt txtmsg….its l33t
its gamerspk
No, it is juvenile gamer speak. I am an avid World of Warcraft player and played Final Fantasy a couple years previous. People who type like you are ostracized and belittled by serious gamers. I am sorry if you think that resume will impress Blizzard, hopefully your credentials will overcome your poor judgement.
And if you doubt me, go to any of Allakazam’s on-line game forum and post something in l33t, see how you are received. I promise you it will be much rougher than here.
[…] expected, the establishment media herd is grazing in a field of Obamentum. Sen. Barack Obama’s […]
hahahaha
im in the Beta for Warhammer online
im in the Beta for Spore
i had a griefer apprenticeship with the Patriotic Nigras in Second Life
dont try to skool me BMoe
ill keylogg u an delete all ur gear an ur mounts and drop u nekkid in the middle of Hellfire Penninsula
/giggles
nubsauce for u
:)
…ill keylogg u an delete all ur gear…
That will be the only way you beat me. ;p
lulz!
:)
dont be so sure
ALL my toons are twinks
;P
Roll a Tauren on Scarlet Crusade. Some guildies and I are thinking about putting together a Tauren only WSG team called .
Hung Likeable
love premades
i just might
i am cheatin just bit, guyz…most of my resume for blizz looks like a series of mathematics courses
they are lookin for someone that understands physics engines and lamberts law Of cosines.
U play Go, Nishi? I am thinking you are a manja fan? e.g. scottmccloud
anyway, still am hoping to piss on Rush Limbaugh for saying Obama isn’t going to be the nominee. And I still think McCain’s got the edge on either Clinton or Obama…except Obama’s momentum and his speechifying. Man, that dude makes Reagan look like an amateur. His book is excellent. I wish I had time to finish it tonight.
crawfish, ya cirrhosis?
hai, so desu
chess is a battle, go is a war
What the hell are you talking about now?
Odds are someone who takes them seriously will get the job.
” ” I’ll remember that, nishi, I play Go too fast. Plateau has been reached, the peaks are still distant.
nah, nuttn. “serious”…doesn’t even rhyme. Trying to upgrade me spelln’. don’t think ur employer status relates well to this languid medium of who-knows-who’s-out-there. w/e
WTF are “physics engines”, and how can I get one for my car?
Technically all engines are constrained by the rules of physics. Except the global weather engine, that’s constrained by Al Gore.
Software that simulates real-world physics in a simulation/game.
RC
You already have one. Action/reaction
Oh. Look. dave found a little friend.
Hmmm…I’m a systems modeling kind of guy (well, only to the extent that said models help test various & sundry algorithms) and we just call those models. A servo control model is a model. An aircraft control model is a model. An optical-path model is a model.
We don’t ever call ’em super models, though.
Oh no for real that’s a gaming thing. I saw it when I was trying to figure out what SLI was. I decided I didn’t really care after awhile.