The latest “Declarations” by Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal analyzing the GOP presidential race are marked by two of MoDo’s signature ticks — the kludgey pop culture reference (in this case, The Godfather, casting Sen. John McCain as Moe Greene and Mitt Romney as Michael Corleone) and a disjointed mental mish-mash that is equal parts nonsense and trite conventional wisdom.
For example, Noonan writes:
If you go by the Florida returns, maybe this year positions aren’t everything. Republicans on the ground think the conservative is the one who suffered 5½ years in the Hanoi Hilton. Republicans on the ground think the conservative is the one who has endured a lifetime in the rounds in Washington and survived as antispending, antiabortion and pro-military. Republicans on the ground think the conservative is the old fighter jock who’ll keep the country safe in a rocky time ahead. And maybe Republicans on the ground are saying: He earned it.
In the real world, if you go by the Florida exit poll, McCain won neither the conservative vote nor the Republican vote. Indeed, he lost the conservative vote by eight points and failed to win a plurality of the Republican vote. After Super-Duper Tuesday, Noonan may be able to marvel over McCain being deemed conservative by Republicans in some state like Connecticut, but as of today, McCain has not won the conservative vote anywhere (he won Republicans in NH; he lost both votes in SC, though he was close to a tie there, as with FL). In no sense can it be said that Republicans on the ground in Florida thought that McCain was the conservative candidate.
The utter nonsense from the quote demonstrates her lack of critical thinking because it so clearly conflicts with the first and last sentences she wrote, which happen to be entirely correct — apparently by accident. For McCain voters, his positions are not everything.  Indeed, for a fairly large segment of McCain voters, issues are not their primary consideration; some do not even know what McCain’s positions have been. First, the anecdotal data:
Asked why she likes McCain, Tina Wolfis of Kalamazoo pointed to “his honesty, his straight-forwardness.â€Â
Other voters, Republicans all, cited similar qualities. Pressed about issues, some mentioned federal spending or the war.
***
Even those who mentioned immigration  or “the illegal aliens,†as Wolfis put it  seemed unaware that McCain was an outspoken Republican advocate for providing illegal immigrants with a pathway to citizenship last spring.
Sharon Hoogendoorn, who works at Hope College in Holland, Mich., where McCain also had a town hall meeting Monday, said she was a border hawk and felt strongly about the issue. Asked how that squared with McCain’s stance on immigration, Hoogendoorn, who is leaning toward the Arizona senator, said, “I think that’s how he feels  we didn’t bridge that issue today. But I’m pretty sure that’s how he feels, as well.†(Emphases added.)
These anecdotes find support in the exit poll data., which usually ask whether issues or personal qualities were more important to their vote. In New Hampshire, Romney won the issues bloc, McCain won the personal qualities bloc.  In South Carolina, Mike Huckabee won the issues bloc, McCain won the personal qualities bloc. In Florida, Romney won the issues bloc, McCain won the personal qualities bloc.
Moreover, as previously noted, there is generally a large, 40-50% bloc who vote more on personal qualities, particularly honesty. This year, Republican and GOP-leaning voters are looking for someone who says what he believes and bring needed change (by which voters mostly mean bipartisanship and “reform”). Johnny Mac is servicing that market; he is tailor-made for it.
Ironically, New Hampshire voters rated McCain as the strongest leader, but as of today, he has yet to demonstrate that he can gain the support of Republicans or conservatives, let alone lead them. This much is obvious to anyone willing to do a few moments of research, which raises questions about what Noonan is doing with her time — besides watching The Godfather.
P.S. Just in case Noonan somehow discovers this post, she might want to think about an essay on conservatives slowly coming to terms with McCain should he win the nomination. She can compare it to Apocolypse Now.
The reason McCain appears to be the nominee is simple- this country has an incredible amount of morons registered to vote.
This political theater where we conservatives are energized as hell at combating another Clinton regime is entertaining to a point. Then, along comes McCain (well, so far, anyway). McCain would probably agree to be Hillary’s VP. That COULD happen if Mitt starts a run when true conservatives are voting in primaries. There are a huge number of politial idiots in this country when you hear “I can’t decide between Obama and McCain.” I thought conservatism was on a roll in the past couple decades. I feel relegated to the fringe again.
I’m sorry, if anyone is a Michael Corleone in this race, it’s not even Hillary.
It’s Goldstein. Reluctant, who would choose another path, but is inexorably drawn into all that he had wished to escape by his own nature and ancient metaphysical roots, to become a dynasty heir to to the republican “family”, in order to bring it to new respectability and legitimacy.
But first he has to shoot a lot of guys in the eye. With henchmen.
“this country has an incredible amount of morons registered to vote.”
Matt,
Your eleven-word essay on how television has impacted America is as accurate as it is concise.
So I guess I better drop that “McCain is the Santino of NY Fashion Week” analogy.
[…] Karl points out, Republicans are having as many problems with reality as Democrats where it concerns what they feel […]
So I guess I better drop that “McCain is the Santino of NY Fashion Week†analogy.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
Oh SarahW, too too good.
[…] The support for McCain, like this election in general, is not about issues. It’s about personal qualities and […]
“He earned it?” So the presidency is some sort of prize you get if you hang around long enough? No one “earns” the presidency. No one has it coming to him as a matter of right. We decide if we want that person to have it. Sheesh
No long ago didn’t Noonan bash Bush for not being Conservative enough yet now she’s bashing Conservatives for not liking McCain enough?
What an Establishment whore is she.
Though he was not my first anti-Establishment choice, I’m voting for the next-in-line anti-Establishment candidate who calls the enemy by its name, appreciates employers of both small and big business, isn’t a snob who considers Americans lazy bigots and nativists, doesn’t trash our troops or make accusations of torture-gulag-nazi and is not a current member of the worst Congress in the history of the United States whose only concern is that the queens on the hill get their brie and pate while demanding chauffered-SUVs drive them two block down from Capitol hill.
Send the anti-Establishment candidate some cash to tell the Establishment how much you don’t appreciate that shoving misery down our thoats is a job Americans won’t do.
Romney may not be the ideal Conservative but at least he’s not the Establishment.
Look how Harry Reid is acting over the stimulus. When 2 weeks ago he was all “We’ll get this done ASAP”. He is a natural whiny backstabber. Who’s going to lay down for his shit and who will call him a tool? That’s the question.
And I do have a touch of Reid Derangement Syndrome. Incurable.
“I knew it was you, Greedo.”
[…]
What do you mean, wrong movie?
MayBee – What are Santino’s and Fashion Week?
alpuccino – I will be glad to call him a tool. A fucking tool. A fucking lying tool.
I avoided exit pollsters, as usual.
Which made me wonder, probably not for the first time, whether there’s some inherent polling problems with having the exit pollsters have to stand back at some offset from the voting place, and having people park inside that offset. My car, and the cars of about thirty other people, was parked inside the offset. Which meant I got to sneer at them from behind the comparative safety of tinted window glass and power-locked windows.
Something to think about, anyway, until the next thing to think about comes around.
JD- Project Runway
MayBee – What is Project Runway ?
In case you haven’t figured it out, WE do not elect our candidates! The senate is a clubby “good old boys club” and don’t you guys know it is John McCain’s turn? Look at what I call the “rolling endorsement” strategy – “respected” conservative senators and governors come out for McCain a day or two ahead of a primary. Most voters are not political junkies – they still get their news from ABC, NBC & CBS nightly newscasts – if they see a conservative like Tom Coburn of Oklahoma endorse McCain – they think that McCain must be that kind of conservative. It creates a bandwagon effect. The public is being manipulated by the establishment. How do you think we got Bob Dole in 96 – it was his turn and that is who the establishment wanted. Unfortunately, the establishment is so out of touch that their hand chosen candidates very rarely win the election. This year will be the same if McCain is the nominee – a lot of the base will NOT pull the lever for McCain – if we are going to get screwed – better a Dem do it. In case anyone cares Rick Santorum has endorsed Romney.
“alpuccino – I will be glad to call him a tool. A fucking tool. A fucking lying tool.”
You give and you give JD.
I think Romney would call him a tool as well. But in a nice hair, good posture sort of way. And what the hell’s wrong with being tall and having good posture and a full head of hair and all your teeth pointing in the same direction? I am not an animal.
The wine drinking, cheese eating Peggy Noonan has officially become an elitist, trying to tell people how to vote. Peggy need to jump in a time machine and fast forward to the year 2008. The days of big media influence is over. She trying to make a final stand (influence), before going into the graveyard, where former agenda setting journalists are waiting to welcome her.
Slarti – I do not avoid exit pollsters. I seek them out. Then, I lie to them.
MayBee – What is Project Runway ?
It’s what your Hannah Montana-watcher will be obsessed with in about 6 years.
BravoTV. 12 clothing designers face a new challenge each week to determine whether you’re in or your out.
And Heidi Klum, the Hannah Montana for big boys.
About the Hope College and Kalamazoo people mentioned in the article. They are from West Michigan. Therefore, any pandering Mitt did to gain the Detroit-area vote would have turned off the other side of the state.
Also, western Michigan is a hard-work, you get what you earn in life kind of place. Conservative, but more Calvin-y. McCain would appeal.
…all 9 teeth, that is.
Heidi “The Bod” Klum ?! Good Allah, why did I not know about this before?
Yup. JD, it’s one of those “bon-bon” guilty pleasures. Although the queeny, catty performances of some of the male designers has probably set back gay mainstreaming about 10 years.
Heidi looks quite fine, though.
Oh, and Haliburton.
Out here in the boonies, western Colorado, no one that I know supports McCain or Romney. Though McCain claims “outsider and maverick” labels, he’s been part of the establishment all his adult life: Born on a naval base as the son and grandson of admirals, lived on a military bases his entire childhood, went to the Naval Academy, served a full military career, immediately ran for congress in ’82 after retiring, moved on to the Senate in ’86, and has been there ever since. So McCain has been a paid employee of the US government for 54 years and grew up in an elite military family before that. You can’t get any more ‘establishment’ than John McCain.
So what if the likely GOP nominee believes in restraints on free speech, higher taxation, bigger government, open borders, and 100-year U.S. armies of occupation everywhere from Albania to Zimbabwe? Romney believes in those things too  at least, he does when he’s in a room full of people that want him to. Huckabee? He’s a Christian huckster, not presidential material.
Many Republicans here can’t stand the establishment candidates, McCain and Romney. In stark contrast, enthusiastic neighbors say Dr. Ron Paul is the private sector candidate, for all those productive Americans who are sick and tired of foreign wars, Federal Reserve bubbles that only beat down farmers and ranchers, the police state, and excessive taxes. Only Ron Paul speaks for freedom, peace, and prosperity. And after Wednesday’s debate, I’ll agree with them.
Without a strong economy, everything else fails as well. When Bush took office in 2001, I bought gold at $270/ounce. Today’s price is over $900–and not because gold has become more valuable; rather, you need more dollars to buy the same amount of gold. The economic failures hitting Main St. will hit harder the longer Washington continues to spend like drunks and only Dr. Paul is addressing this core issue in an intelligent manner. Why can’t a Senator or Governor?
Dr. Paul serves on the House Committee on Financial Services and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. I believe he knows what he’s talking about when he points out the trouble coming down the pike.
And ‘national security’ conservatives, please note that when the dollar finally crashes (a la the ruble in ’80s and ’90s), any sense of military security will crumble as well. How many soldiers will continue to defend Iraq, Germany, or Japan when the paycheck doesn’t arrive? Or behave as Russian soldiers did and sell military hardware to feed their families?
Save America, save the dollar, and save our grandchildren from the fate of Russians: support Dr. Ron Paul.
I know those of us in the blogosphere are unusually plugged in, but those McCain voters quoted are just plain stupid. The woman who is sure he agrees with her on immigration needs to be slapped unconcious. These are Republicans? I’m officially ashamed of my party.
BJ – AND, KYOTO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!eleventy!1 one!!!
Because of TeH Nor Laup !!!!!!!!
I hate Peggy Noonan. I hope someone keys her car.
Fuck Ron Paul he is a fucking joke.
Someone should key his car too.
How many times did Noonan get the vapors in this episode?
‘feet,
I was thinking more along the lines of ringing her door-bell and running.
Are you in?
You rock. We should spork her lawn first though so she really has something to think about.
and sigh and sigh over.
I’d say hang in there Peggy. But the thing is she will.
[…] here: The support for McCain, like this election in general, is not about issues. It’s about personal qualities and […]