When it comes down to the wire, people want a little horse race, so let’s have at it. The last polls from Survey USA and InsiderAdvantage still show Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney in a virtual dead heat — and Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee on virtually dead horses.ÂÂ
However, as with the polls for the Democrats in South Carolina, differences in polling methods lead to different overall numbers and internals. SurveyUSA has a 2% undecided vote, while InsiderAdvantage has it at 9-10% undecided. That both polls end up still end with a virtual tie suggests that even the latest deciders could break evenly, which could make for a long evening, particularly as this is the largest primary to date (and those FL election officials will want to be careful).
One surprise is that both polls suggest that Giuliani’s early/absentee voting campaign may turn out to be far less impressive than previously thought.ÂÂ
Caveats: Though both polls break down numbers for people who have already voted, this subset inherently has a larger margin of error. Moreover, these numbers may not accurately capture absentee voting. For example, random digit dialing was probably limited to Florida area codes and would not pick up true absentees.
Nevertheless, the percentage of votes already cast for Giuliani was only 18% in the SurveyUSA poll and only 24.2% in the Insider Advantage poll. In both polls, McCain and Romney did as well or better than Giuliani in already cast votes. Oddly, the numbers for McCain in this category are roughly similar, but the numbers for Romney are ten points apart.ÂÂ
Huckabee seems to have roughly 5-10% of the already cast votes, which suggests that he did not have the strong informal networks in Florida that he had in Iowa, or that he made no effort to get those networks on this task. Mark that as “ouch” or “oops.”
These already cast votes made up 27% of the sample in each poll. Thus, the candidates vie for the other 73%, with roughly 14% of them planning to vote for Giuliani and about the same for Huckabee.
According to the L.A. Times (and others), Rudy Giuliani has his hand on the turn-indicator for the next exit off the campaign trail. If Rudy is reading the writing on the wall, his voters may be doing the same. Now that we know that many of them are not already locked in by early/absentee voting, the questions are how many Rudy fans bail on him, and for whom do they bail. (The same questions arise as to Huckabee, but to a much lesser degree, as he is not suggesting he may drop out before Super-Duper Tuesday.)
The Palm Beach Post reports:
Over the weekend, Giuliani supporters in Florida started receiving automated phone calls from the McCain campaign urging them to switch their vote.
The calls, according to (Giuliani national campaign chairman George) Duhaime, say that a vote for Giuliani will play into Romney’s hands and it urges those voters to cast their ballots for McCain.
Earlier in the primary season Giuliani had expressed admiration for McCain and said if he weren’t running himself he would have supported McCain.
I have not found reports of any similar efforts by the Romney campaign, which means that: (a) I have missed something; (b) their effort is very stealthy; (c) there is no such effort and they are missing the boat organizationally; or (d) there is no such effort because they have reason to believe switchers help McCain on balance and do not want to put the idea in the heads of Rudy voters. What it tells you with more certainty is that McCain has managed to get some organization going for the Sunshine State on short notice (of course, these calls could be generated from anywhere).
Should the primary election turn out as close as the polls suggest, it is unfortunate that the margin of victory could be those who voted for Rudy early and have voter’s remorse today.
However, I do not want to end on a completely sad note, so take a gander at the Miami Herald story on the GOP candidates’ song playlists, which comes with audio clips.
The song topping my campaign playlist does not appear on any of theirs.
Here’s mine:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Rp6-wG5LLqE
Too bad it’s not true. Business as usual.
I’m probably going to end up voting Calvin-Hobbes this November.
So if we, collectively, really decide who leads us based on polls, do we really have any room to gripe if our leaders try to lead us by polls?
RTO – Nope. Another horror foisted upon us by Hill/Bill. Governance by poll.
The calls could be generated from anywhere, but with the endorsement of Governor Crist and Sen. Martinez a pre-packaged organization is available. Those two have their staffers contact the county chairs and they go down their phone lists and start contacting their people. Before you can say ‘Jack Robinson’ someone has donated their office after-hours and volunteers show up to man an impromptu phone bank. I’ve seen it happen.
The endorsements aren’t just the good word of that local/state politician you may know and trust, its all the people on his phone list that can be turned out to provide workers and resources for a campaign.
“So if we, collectively, really decide who leads us based on polls, do we really have any room to gripe if our leaders try to lead us by polls?”
Collectively, probably not. Individually, yes.
BECAUSE OF THE ELECTABILITY!!!!
Ronulans are fantastic at ignoring polls. Unfortunately, current polls have the same reliability as reading entrails (although less messy, of course). Current polling does not provide significant assurance as to whether a vote for a particular candidate would be wasted except, perhaps, for candidates with the lowest numbers.
In keeping with the general thrust of this blog, it might be of some amusement to examine the top candidates in the light of a victimary narrative construct. Rather simple on the Dem side but only slightly more complex on the Rep side.
Personally, I’ll have a rather large problem casting a vote for a candidate who clings to victim status as a means of advancement.
That may be why this year’s crop sucks so bad.
McCain: “I spent forty years in the Hanoi Hilton to make the world safe for campaign-finance reform!”
Romney: “How dare you bring up my Mormonism!”
Huckabee: “Imagine growing up with my last name.”
Giuliani: “What are you complaining about? At least people can spell it.”
Thompson: “Screw this. I’m going back to my bus.”