Search






Jeff's Amazon.com Wish List

Archive Calendar

November 2024
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930  

Archives

Lincoln’s (and Rove’s) Rule: Organization Matters [Karl]

Dark Lord Karl Rove, writing for the Wall Street Journal, notes a historical precedent for a theme I have hammered here at pw all year long:

Politics has become hi-tech with sophisticated databases, the Internet, TV ads, focus groups and polls.

But a lanky Sangamon County, Ill., lawyer described the essential task of politics in 1840 in a letter to his Whig campaign committee. Make a list of the voters, he wrote, ascertain for whom they will vote, have undecided voters talked to by someone they hold in confidence, and, on Election Day, get all Whig voters to the polls.

Yet even as Rove acknowledges some Democratic efforts on voter registration and GOTV, he seems stuck in the past:

…Mr. Obama could repeat a big mistake Howard Dean made in 2004 when he had college students call on voters with whom they shared little. This violated Lincoln’s rule.

***

Mr. McCain has a superior tool available to him – the GOP’s Victory Committee, with its 72-Hour program that uses sophisticated targeting and vast numbers of volunteers to focus on Lincoln’s four tasks.

The Bush re-elect effort was state of the art — for 2004.  But Democrats seem to have learned from it, developing databases like Catalist and initiatives that focus social pressure from friends and neighbors.  Those efforts paid off in 2006, when Rove sounded equally overconfident.  The Obama campaign has built on that model, getting his supporters to enter personal information directly on mybarackobama.com and related sites.

Rove seems to be one of those Republicans who question whether the DNC could catch up in the span of just one presidential cycle. But that seems like an overly cocky attitude to adopt when Obama has demonstrated ability in this area, while Rove admits that McCain hasn’t historically valued organization (and it has shows in his efforts in this cycle to date).

Rove has the correct lesson — organization could provide the winning margin in the fall.  But the rest of his column often sounds like the Hare lecturing the Tortoise.

24 Replies to “Lincoln’s (and Rove’s) Rule: Organization Matters [Karl]”

  1. thor says:

    Karl Rove was state of the dark in 2006. Better listen to him.

  2. sashal says:

    Here is another great advice for republicans.
    LOL at GOP desperation

  3. JD says:

    Karl – I always thought that the Dark Lord KKKarl Rove was waaaaaaaaay overrated. He was just a convenient bogeyman for the Left to blame their failures on.

  4. SarahW says:

    I don’t know. I can’t think of anything that would have tempted me to vote for McCain. ANYTHING, except the prospect of his running against a frigging wannabee christ figure of lesser intellect, or at least less intellectual rigor, and suspect character, with a lot of very bad ideas and very bad friends, whom I expect others will vote for simply because he symbolizes a post-racial USA. If they can vote for a lie, oh so can I.

  5. Salt Lick says:

    I can’t think of anything that would have tempted me to vote for McCain. ANYTHING, except…

    Ditto. An Obama presidency combined with a Democratic Congress could prove more disastrous to freedom and prosperity than a Jimmy Carter presidency. And there is no assurance we could pull ourselves out this time with another Ronald Reagan.

    And as for people who way they won’t vote at all, people like RTO (are you in service too, maggie?), Sgt. Ted, and Major John haven’t been getting up in the morning and saying, “I don’t like my mission choices today. I think I’ll sit this one out.”

  6. bigbooner says:

    Nothing says “social pressure” like a lit bag of dogshit thrown on a porch.

  7. maggie katzen says:

    nope, Salt Lick, just married to RTO. I don’t think the military would want me.

    How many times have I heard RTO say, “I’d just about come to terms with McCain and then he did xxx”? I’ve lost count. oh well, it’s a while till November, I’ll start drinking now.

  8. Darleen says:

    I’m also of the “hold my nose for McCain” brigade. It’s why I’ve sat on my hands each time the phone rings with one of the begging calls from the GOP.

    But an O!messiah presidency is a disaster waiting to happen. The guy is a great speech giver, but has nothing to back up his claims. He’s worse than just an empty suit, he’s a flim-flam man.

    And he has the mainstream media in the tank for him even more so than Billy Jeff’s first run (oh gawd, I cancelled my deadtree subscription to the LATimes over their frontpage/above-the-fold PR pieces on Billy Jeff – with quotes from swooning women about how handsome and manly Clinton was – as NEWS pieces).

  9. Salt Lick says:

    I’ve sat on my hands each time the phone rings with one of the begging calls from the GOP

    I used to be a county GOP vice-chair and I say screw the RNC. I’m saving my money for a good 527.

  10. McGehee says:

    But an O!messiah presidency is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Indeed, but I think not for the reasons a lot of people think so. Remember that some of the least consequential presidents in American history had “friendly” congresses.

    O! would be a one-termer, and then a long-term political joke. Reversing what he accomplishes in four years as president would almost certainly take his successor about three weeks.

  11. jon says:

    I agree that whoever wins in November will be a one-termer, but that’s because I’m pessimistic about where the country is. We’re going from a world economy that runs on cheap energy to one that is heading toward scarcity and price hikes at a time when our country is experiencing inflation, banking troubles, debt, trade imbalances, and war. Either things will be worked at and complaints will be inevitable or things will be left to work themselves out and complaints will be inevitable. Taxes will go up in 2010 as the cuts will not be renewed, Iraq will not get any easier, oil still will not be cheap, homes in suburbs and some rural areas will become less valuable as a result of gas costs, public transportation will still be a wonderful thing for other people to use and pay for, and things will not be wonderful.

  12. The Lost Dog says:

    “How many times have I heard RTO say, “I’d just about come to terms with McCain and then he did xxx”?…”

    Ditto. Every time I have cooled off enough to remember why I MUST vote for McCain, he turns around and kicks me in the balls again. I am not at all happy with McCain, vut he is the only rational choice I have. Sitting this one out is another vote for Obama.

    But O! is just too puff-puffy to even contemplate having him as my president. I am afraid of the damage this man could do in four years, because, unlike McGehee, I don’t believe it will be that easy to fix a lot of it. Especially when a lot of it will be progg legilation rubber stamped by an almost invulnerable Democratic congress.

  13. B Moe says:

    And as for people who way they won’t vote at all, people like RTO (are you in service too, maggie?), Sgt. Ted, and Major John haven’t been getting up in the morning and saying, “I don’t like my mission choices today. I think I’ll sit this one out.”

    I see my mission as to get up every morning, go to work so I can support myself and pay my taxes. If I choose to vote “none of the above” in November, that is my choice.

    That said, there is a good possibility I will vote McCain, I just don’t have to make that choice until I am damn good and ready.

  14. McGehee says:

    I am afraid of the damage this man could do in four years, because, unlike McGehee, I don’t believe it will be that easy to fix a lot of it. Especially when a lot of it will be progg legilation rubber stamped by an almost invulnerable Democratic congress.

    Like the one Carter had? That one, by the way, also had decades of invulnerability behind it at the time, so was even more arrogant than the Reid-Pelosi axis. Furthermore, anyone who believes Hillary won’t smilingly roadblock anything that comes up Pennsylvania Avenue from O!, isn’t paying attention.

    Fact is, O! isn’t merely an empty suit, he is a hologram of an empty suit. Any leadership exhibited during an Obama presidency will come from Capitol Hill.

    Maybe even from the Republicans, if you can imagine that. Think 1993 and 1994.

  15. McGehee says:

    …which is not to say (re my last comment) that I want the O!borg to emerge victorious. I just think we should no more exaggerate the downside of an O! presidency than we did that of a Hillary presidency.

    Think entertainment.

  16. President Bush did not win in 2004 because of clever political trickery or organization, he didn’t win because of Lincoln’s plan. He won because voters spontaneously recognized the dire need for John Kerry to be kept out of power, the weakness of him as a candidate, and the recognition that in the middle of a war you do not change commanders. The victory of 2004 was grass roots plain and simple: voters felt a deep need to get out and vote, because of the stakes involved and because 9/11 was still fresh in their memories.

  17. B Moe says:

    Any leadership exhibited during an Obama presidency will come from Capitol Hill.

    Which is the reason I fear McCain. He has the alliances and political savvy to do a lot of freaking damage.

  18. Mikey NTH says:

    Which is the reason I fear McCain. He has the alliances and political savvy to do a lot of freaking damage.

    Which any politician can do; and with those alliances and political savvy he can keep a lot of damage from being done. And Sen. McCain does not have a history of close persoanl association with people and groups that hate America and the bulk of its population. For me, that seals the deal – I think the Republic would be safe in his hands. Poor domestic legislation can be repealed, but it is hard to repeal bad impressions set up overseas, such as ‘weakness’, and ‘untrustworthiness’. It took us seven years after 9/11 to get to this point where a terrorist group has been badly crippled in both effectiveness and reputation, where Islamofascism is getting discredited. Those gains are to precious to throw away because of anger over other policies. To me, they are both the right and left bower, trumping everything else in the euchre game of politics.

  19. Mikey NTH says:

    To sum up my above comment:

    “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.” Winston Churchill

  20. Big Bang Hunter (pumping you up) says:

    – The UAE named an ambassador to Baghdad today. Considering where things stood in Iraq just 1 year ago, thats huge.

    – By the end of the year, the Left may be lucky they don’t have to face Bush again.

  21. I think the Republic would be safe in his hands.

    I think that the best we can hope for is that the damage he does will be less than a President Obama would do, and more long-term.

  22. TmjUtah says:

    Overheard in an Iranian hotel suite:

    Achmed: Unbelievable. The United States is going to be ruled by one of those three clowns? The woman Pelosi deliver us the keys herself.

    Mo: I don’t understand. They have such riches. Hospitals, Colleges, tremendous cities. Nobody starves there. One of my half brothers drives a cab and is buying his own house in Dallas next month. He never returns my calls…

    A dusty, dry old man stirs in the chair in the back corner of the room and the other men fall silent. The old man is dressed simply in a didasha and the neatly wrapped white turban of an imam.
    His age is indeterminate. He is older than any of the other mens’ grandfathers. He grew up fighting other Arab tribes, then Jews, in Palestine when it was a British possession. He became a leader of the jihad and a follower of Qutb when Eisenhower was president.

    He has overseen the murder of more people than any living political leader. He has never been photographed. No western intelligence agency even suspects his existence.

    Old man: Clowns. That’s about right. This time. In four years, who? Who then? I watched the last Russian leave Afghanistan. I would have watched, but they were all locked up in their tanks and carriers. I was just an old man sitting on a bench by a hut… but they feared me, just the same. And they ran away. After years, they ran away.

    Clowns. But they have not left Afghanistan. They won’t leave Iraq – even the clowns. They fought for defeat but fear to be blamed when they hold power.

    We are close to the Great Attack… and in four more years, who is to say they won’t choose their own Richard?

    **********************

    One of the most aggravating aspects of being an ally, competitor, or enemy of the USA is our patently irrational track record of presidents. I just hope we can survive the mistake we are about to make.

    BTW, I’m voting against Obama or Clinton. But I’m getting a damned good night’s sleep before I vote and don’t intend to do much deep thinking on election day.

  23. m kasper says:

    Mikey says —

    “(McCain) ….. with those alliances and political savvy he can keep a lot of damage from being done. And Sen. McCain does not have a history of close persoanl association with people and groups that hate America and the bulk of its population.”

    Except McCain in the past 10 years he has courted the media. Wasn’t that long ago he seriously considered joining the Democrat party. I’d say there was evidence that both one are close to hating America, or they are (as someone earlier said) “terminally stupid.”

    If I thought McCain was a smart man, I might have more confidence. However, I don’t think he is smart, and I don’t think he has a smart election organization. So many missed opportunities. He appears to be all over the map ideologically (immigration, climate change) and lacks common knowledge of economics (like so many in Congress). He has the tendency to be volatile and vindictive, which could be useful, except guess who he is most vindictive toward?? His own party.

    For sure Republicans will not have majority in the House of Senate after November. And we will have either the walking liberal cliche bringing the days of Camelot, so we will be told, or a “Republican” who not only reaches across the aisle, he puts on their uniform and cheers with them (heard that somewhere).

    I am with others here. Not really sure how I will vote in November, other than straight Republican for local and state reps.

  24. pker averagejoe coupons…

    extra Wausau Bagley odorously backer?…

Comments are closed.