Two new polls related to the argument between Barack Obama and John McCain over whether the US president should meet directly with the leaders of US enemies like Iran remind us that the interpretation of public opinion polling is as much art as science.
On Monday, Gallup released a poll summarized as follows:
Large majorities of Democrats and independents, and even about half of Republicans, believe the president of the United States should meet with the leaders of countries that are considered enemies of the United States. Overall, 67% of Americans say this kind of diplomacy is a good idea.
***
About 6 in 10 Americans (59%) think it would be a good idea for the president of the United States to meet with the president of Iran. This includes about half of Republicans, a majority of independents, and most Democrats.
On Wednesday, Rasmussen Reports released a poll it summarized this way:
Forty-five percent (45%) of likely voters agree with Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama that it’s a good idea for the U.S. president to meet directly with the leader of Iran, but well over half (59%) think that talks should only take place after Iran stops developing nuclear weapons.
Although the question wording and order in each poll seems similar (the Rasmussen results quoted above are for two separate questions), differences between the two polls remain. Gallup’s Panel study was based on telephone interviews with adults conducted May 19-21, while Rasmussen used automated interviews of likely voters conducted June 3. Gallup has only 2% of respondents giving “no opinion,” while Rasmussen has 19% who are “not sure.”ÂÂ
Who was asked, when they were asked and how hard they were pressed for an answer resulted in a 14% difference in the level of agreement with Obama’s position.
Karl
Clearly Rasmussen is a GOP shill.
so?
Well I guess if they stopped developing nuclear weapons then you wouldn’t need to talk to them at all.
News just in,
polls continue their trend towards ‘lying weaseltools’ and away from ‘impartial science’.
Bonus question:
how long before the majority of people ignore polls?
Overall, 67% of Americans say this kind of diplomacy is a good idea.
And what percentage of these Americans are uninformed retards?
There are times when we need to leave governing to the grown ups. Too many Americans don’t know anything about, say, the electoral college vote and, hence, how we elect a president. Sure, they know the intricacies of voting someone of the Survivor Show, but that doesn’t help.
So, that first Gallup Poll, though it made me cringe, reminded me that far too many adults have no idea about the intricacies of foreign diplomacy. Diplomacy isn’t having a difficult conversation with a coworker or having a parent-teacher conference with your child’s teacher.
In this instance, McCain, much as Obama rightly did with the gas tax, needs to tell Americans what is really going on and not let them push policy.
Besides, the Gallup Poll, if the dates are correct, seems to be based on calls made before Americans began to get a little education on this matter–and before we saw Obama’s “Iran-is-not-a-threat; No, Iran-is-a-grave-threat” embarrassment.
Expose Obama for the fraud that he is.
Kennedy and FDR spoke to our enemies. I’m sure many of the respondents kept that in mind as they answered to pollster’s questions.
Obama has a huge platform to create new facts before an unaware audience.
MayBee – History is subjective, and facts are malleable for one with powers like Baracky. He stooped the fuckin’ oceans from rising.
Polling seems to be mostly ephemera. Useful? Damn useful I say. Like nose rings are useful for leading a 1750lb bull.
I doubt many in that 67% realize (or know at all) that Kennedy’s talk with Krushchev didn’t turn out all that great.
Shit, Krushchev’s spar with Kennedy convinced him he could get away with those missiles in Cuba. What might Obama’s talk with Ahmadinejad result in?
People are stupid.
Damn, now I’m apt to be in another bad mood today. Guess I’ll beat up on nishi to work it out …
Actually, polling can be a useful tool — for those who understand the limitations of polling. The reason I do posts like this on polling is not to reinforce the rather common tendency to dismiss polling, but to help people understand what you can get out of polling… and what you can’t get out of polling. And to fight the sort of brain-dead media reporting on polls, which treats them far more literal and scientifically determiantive than is justified.
Fight on Karl, I applaud you. I, for one, don’t dismiss polling. Neither would I dismiss an AK-74. Very dangerous, both.
Well, that’s the problem with deciding policy via popularity contests, isn’t it? Most people are idiots.
“People are stupid”
Well that, but more importantly completely ignorant on the issues. I’m a little (or depends on who you are asking, a LOT) of both, but I find absolutely no shame in admitting that in regards to a certain issue and thus do not provide an opinion. Even if polled, I would be honest.
AK74, is that bigger than an AK 47?
CCS
Just a different year.
Different caliber, too. 5.45mm, I think, as opposed to the AK047’s 7.62mm
MayBee – when FDR spoke to our enemies he used B-17s to get the point across. I don’t think that is quite what Sen. Obama meant. ;)
The problem with polls is that most intelligent people hang up on pollsters. They know that polls are too black and white to really convey much about opinions, and that a very large percentage of responder’s true thoughts are outside the parameters of a poll.
Depending on how questions are worded, you can come up with infinite outcomes. As these two examples show.
They also show just how frightened Americans should be about our future. “Government schools” have finally taken hold, and are close to achieving their intended goal – which is to bury civics, economics, and history six feet under. Not to mention math, English, and science.
As Kruschev once said: “We will bury you without firing a shot”. It’s beginning to look like he was right.
“We recently polled our audience, and if you’ve ever worked on a cattle farm you have some idea of just how painful that can be…”
— Dave Letterman
Actually, form the perspective of most pw regulars, there is good news to be gleaned from these polls, when read in light of their limits. For example:
1. Those more likely to vote had a tougher atttitude toward Iran;
2. Those more likely to vote were more likely to admit they were unsure about the issue; and
3. The time lag suggests people are educable on the issue.
And this is all 5 months away from election day, so people are not paying as much attention now as they will be.
And a pony!
I’m kind of tired of polling used to set policy. Somebody will say something stupid, most of the country reacts and calls it stupid, and the politician involved begins backtracking and “clarifying” which reverses their position. Then the pollsters start putting out numbers that show most of America actually agrees with said stupid thing. How? Well who you ask, and when, and how you ask it can get pretty much any result you want, and the purpose is to shift the policy and public perception to where that stupid idea is not seen to be all that stupid to begin with.
And people wonder why I hate polls so much.
A link again to the National Council on Public Polling:
http://www.ncpp.org/
One of the things I find amusing about this “let’s negotiate with Iran now, cuz the E-VIL McCHIMPYBUSHITLERHALLIBURTON wouldn’t” bit is that…why should he?
After all, our intellectual and social superiors in the UN and Europe have been for the past few years, and over this very issue of their nuclear ambitions.
And such amazing results they (Europe and the UN) got for their trouble, too…
Maybe OsamalamaDingDong missed that memo, too…
PONIES! PUPPIES! BUNNIES! For the love of O!
Cave Bear – the goalposts, they have ceased to tango – now they do the rumba!
After all, our intellectual and social superiors in the UN and Europe have been for the past few years, and over this very issue of their nuclear ambitions.
And such amazing results they (Europe and the UN) got for their trouble, too…
Yes, but they aren’t as smart, as smooth, as well spoken, nor as enlightened as Lord Obama. Seriously, that’s the mindset of the leftist, their good ideas will work, even if other people have failed with them, because they are so very clever and capable and smart.
and I find this further amusing because basically O! has adopted our current policy on Iran, except that he’s going to push Europe out of the way. allegedly.
If I were a betting woman, I’d bet Obama has no idea what our current position with regard to Iran actually is. If you asked him who was currently talking with Iran on our behalf, what had been offered, and as a bonus asked him who participates in our 6 party talks with NoKo, he’d have Joe Biden answer the questions for him as a campaign surrogate.
Maybee, I can’t tell you how many times I yell, “WE’RE ALREADY DOING THAT!” at the TV.
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