The Atlantic’s Democratic primary blogging was all over the non-electoral map. Matt Yglesias revealed himself to be a bitter loser, blaming Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory on “the racist vote.” The exit poll has almost identical numbers for gender, so he could throw in reverse-sexist, too. Welcome to your party. Excitable Andy was almost moderate by comparison, noting that black Democrats voted 91 to 9 for Obama. Megan McArdle kept nodding off. Marc Ambinder wisely noted that the Vermont primary may allow Barack Obama to end up with a net gain  of between six and ten delegates on the night. Obama has been thriving on those cheap delegates throughout the campaign, yet the media continues to downplay it (even as Hillary complains that she is winning the important states).
My very quick take: Ohio looks like a flashback for Clinton. Through Super-Duper Tuesday, in northern states, Clinton and Obama would tend to split men, with Clinton winning on a female gender gap and blue-collar voters. And Texas may not turn out much different than Obama backers were thinking two weeks ago. A night of sound and fury, with Obama still well ahead in the pledged delegate count the next day.
At RCP, Jay Cost has largely the same take on Ohio, but points out that Obama also under-performed in some of his key groups, including white men, the affluent, and non-union households. Texas had similar but weaker trends. He notes that Clinton will not cut much into Obama’s delegate lead, but adds:
However, with some votes left to be counted in all four states – Clinton netted about 315,000 votes on Obama. Those RCP popular vote counts have shifted. Clinton cut Obama’s lead excluding Florida and Michigan by about 35%; she cut the lead excluding Michigan by about 50%; and she has erased Obama’s lead in the count that includes Florida and Michigan.
Thus, if Clinton does as well in Pennsylvania as she did in Ohio, Cost still argues that she may yet make her “moral claim” to the nomination. I still think that assumes too much about the fate of Florida and Michigan.
Comment by The Sanity Inspector on 3/5 @ 7:43 am #
The momentum belongs to Hillary this morning. If there’s one thing Americans love as much as a winner, it’s a comeback.
Comment by JD on 3/5 @ 7:47 am #
Obama was not his normal happy smiley sparkly hopey changey self in his speech last night. He had some of that pulpit affect going on, and seemed a bit peeved, angry even. The next 7 weeks should be an absolute joy.
Comment by B Moe on 3/5 @ 7:55 am #
Hillary’s new theme song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHNmyN6mPsM
Comment by Mikey NTH on 3/5 @ 8:43 am #
It is fun to watch the Democrats fighting to decide which of their neuroses is going to be the one that gets indulged.
Comment by serr8d on 3/5 @ 9:07 am #
If Hillary wins in November, I blame Rush, and the conservative pundits who tossed support to her.
Should’ve staked. While we had the chance.
Pingback by Hot Air » Blog Archive » Exit polls: Did race win it for Hillary? on 3/5 @ 9:15 am #
[...] for that margin. Funny how we didn’t hear much about it on Super Tuesday. Exit question via Karl: How come Hillary’s whopping margins on the gender question don’t qualify as a [...]
Comment by MayBee on 3/5 @ 9:47 am #
blaming Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory on “the racist vote.
Stephanie Tubbs-Jones is a black supporter of Clinton. She has several black superdelegates that are following her lead. Surely some black people support Tubbs Jones out of black pride, no?
Is it possible that black voters listening to Tubbs-Jones are voting for Clinton and saying it’s because of race?
If the answer is no, don’t tell me.
Comment by gahrie on 3/5 @ 10:05 am #
Can we all finally agree that Sullivan is neither a Republican or a conservative?
Comment by JohnAnnArbor on 3/5 @ 10:34 am #
Can we all finally agree that Sullivan is neither a Republican or a conservative?
I think the only person who thinks he’s either is Sullivan himself. Unless you consider his narcissism a separate person (understandable, given how active it is).
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