Now that John McCain officially has the delegates to win the GOP presidential nomination, a few observations may be in order as he makes his way to the starting line for the general election.
The latest Pew poll suggests that the word that comes to mind most often to describe McCain is “old.” However, current Gallup data suggests that fewer people see McCain’s age as an issue than was the case with Bob Dole in 1996, in part because Americans on average perceive him to be slightly younger than his real age.  I suspect his well-known service in Vietnam makes people think of him as a Boomer — and that the media will get to work on correcting that misimpression in due course.
Given that recent polls suggest that a McCain vs. Obama contest gives McCain more Democrats than Obama takes Republicans, Obama’s current lead comes from Independents. Accordingly, it is notable that current Gallup data suggests that when asked which of three candidate characteristics is most important to their 2008 vote, Independents choose leadership skills and vision (43%)  over both issue positions (38%) and experience (17%). Indeed, Independents value experience less than Democrats, which is good news for Barack Obama and bad news for McCain. However, as I have suggested previously, McCain may be able argue that his experience makes him the candidate more likely to change business as usual in DC, or that the change Obama offers is a left-liberal agenda people do not want.ÂÂ
I agree with Mark Daniels that going to the White House to get Pres. Bush’s endorsement may not be the best way to start a campaign where the president is unpopular. However, I also suspect that the DNC has already collected every photo and snippet of footage of the two together to brand McCain as BushCo III. Accordingly, getting the meeting out of the way now may be the least bad option, particularly as the media focus is likely to be on the continuation of the Clinton-Obama tussle on the other side of the aisle.
Last night, McCain’s speech marking his lockdown of the nomination contained some interesting allusions regarding policy, but the key grafs from a political perspective were probably these:
America is at war in two countries, and involved in a long and difficult fight with violent extremists who despise us, our values and modernity itself. It is of little use to Americans for their candidates to avoid the many complex challenges of these struggles by re-litigating decisions of the past. I will defend the decision to destroy Saddam Hussein’s regime as I criticized the failed tactics that were employed for too long to establish the conditions that will allow us to leave that country with our country’s interests secure and our honor intact. But Americans know that the next president doesn’t get to remake that decision. We are in Iraq and our most vital security interests are clearly involved there. The next president must explain how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide; destabilizing the entire Middle East; enabling our adversaries in the region to extend their influence and undermine our security there; and emboldening terrorists to attack us elsewhere with weapons we dare not allow them to possess.
***
I will leave it to my opponent to claim that they can keep companies and jobs from going overseas by making it harder for them to do business here at home. We will campaign to strengthen job growth in America by helping businesses become more competitive with lower taxes and less regulation.
I will leave it to my opponent to propose returning to the failed, big government mandates of the sixties and seventies to address problems such as the lack of health care insurance for some Americans. I will campaign to make health care more accessible to more Americans with reforms that will bring down costs in the health care industry down without ruining the quality of the world’s best medical care.
The economy may well be the primary issue as we approach November, but McCain can be forgiven for not leading with it last night. Here, McCain is trying to reassure the base of the GOP that he intends to address economic insecurity with more conservative solutions.
More interesting is the angle on national security, particularly Iraq. Obama has made points throughout the Democratic caucuses and primaries by questioning Clinton’s judgment on Iraq. It appears that McCain will attempt to deflect that attack — to the extent possible — by painting it as dwelling on the rancorous partisan politics of the last few years. That approach could well have traction against Obama, who is positioning himself as the candidate who wants to move beyond the old politics. It seems like a clever approach, though I wonder if McCain should have waited on unveiling it. Also, he needs to drop “re-litigate” — “re-fight” or “re-hash” are simpler and easier to follow. The whole tone could be more blue-collar, really. At least the Democrats have given Team McCain some more time to work on it.
I liked McC’s speech last night.
If it’s Obama, the debates should be very interesting, and I think McCain will mop the floor with him. Iraq is not going to be the trump card Obama thinks it is, and he really doesn’t have much else.
America is not going to buy the RUN AWAY! plan if the facts on the ground look like this.
I don’t know that Iraq is all that good an issue for McCain, either. If there’s still a long way to go in Iraq by January of 2009, a lot of people are going to doubt the wisdom of the Republicans.
And what’s next in the WoT? Anyone? Do you think America has the stomach for another pre-emptive action anywhere? I don’t.
If McCain runs against Hillary.
He wins. No doubt.
Many people( me included) can’t stand her.
I almost puked when I heard her victory speech, her voice just grates on my nerves, which is bad for my heart..
If Obama runs against him, all bets are off, as long as Barak will start talking more concrete things besides hope…
McCain will have an easier time defeating Obama than Hillary. One needs to look at states like New Jersey to see this. Obama is an extreme leftist and this will be exposed as the weeks go by. Hillary is an absolute expert at playing both sides of issues and will make it hard for McCain to contract against her .
If Baracky can’t make a definitivey case against Hillary, he’s not the odds on favorite against McCain. Pablo is right that Iraq is the interesting thinger. Probably I think if the media had let Iraq remain on the radar, Obama would have pulled away, but they’re scared of the progress in Iraq. I imagine what they’ll do is turn up the volume on Iraq’s costs to try and help Baracky. Joseph Stiglitz is going to be a very busy boy.
The question I think is why Baracky has peaked even though the media has so earnestly slobbered all over him. I think they messed up and turned him into a celebrity instead of a public figure. That’s why old people may think he’s a nice boy but they don’t really wants Jay-Z in da hizzy.
It’s not that he’s old. He is pretty cranky. Do we want someone in the WH who would never flip the chicken switch?
http://thatvideosite.com/view/412.html
I’m not so sure. It’s the blank-slateyness that’s gotten Obama this far. Once he starts carving ideas in stone, that stone is gonna weigh him down regardless which way it leans.
The reason people don’t see McCain as old is because he has more energy than I do at 46. I was at a fundraiser for McCain last Wednesday and I watched him work the room and I was stunned at his energy. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.
RWS – You must be as giddy as a schoolgirl right about now. ;-)
Have to agree with Dennis D and others who asses Obama to be the weaker foe. The working class, common sense Reagan Democrats who are keeping Hillary afloat, the salt of the earth high school grads. who work for a living and have benefitted from avoiding the corriders of Harvard and Columbia U and the poodle eat poodle world of the MLA–supporters and/or members of the old city machines and/or union Dems will find in McCain a candidate they can stomache. And some will support outright with gifts and goolah because Obama for them is another Carter or McGovern. Plus he’s got a funny name and goes to a funny church and… alas Rendell was telling the truth, a lot of these kinds of Northern folk are racist at their core, a sad fact, but one that makes McCain even more inevitable if Obama becomes the nominee. States like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Maryland, California too (but for different reasons, not least among them is the Arnooooold), are all suddenly in play. I don’t think the converse is true if Hillary is the candidate. Nor do I think McCain has an easier go at holding his base with Hillary, no matter the hate the base has for her and Bubba. With Obama and Michelle dancing on the grave of America’s inglorious past, the base, if not motivated, will too hold its stomache and vote. McCain will win in a landslide versus Obama, and the next day he will have united much of the United States with one sea to shining sea upset stomach.
Not to mention an epidemic of clothespin-sprained noses.
The hell? Obama (or Clinton) will eat him alive if he tries that tack. The guy has more lobbyists raising money for him than any other candidate, almost all of his top advisors are lobbyists, and several of them are actively lobbying congress from McCain’s campaing bus. It’s going to be a problem for him in the general anyway, but if he tries to paint himself as “the candidate more likely to change business as usual in DC” he’ll just be inviting more “Myth of a Maverick” type scrutiny.
McGehee,
Was a clumsy attempt, as McCain being a candidate Reagan Dems can stomache hardly leads to their having an upset stomach after having pulled the lever, but surely Rocco will have twangs of guilt in having once again helped to deny his party the presidency and having been racist, perhaps, in part of his decision making. But Puerto Rico, the last stop on the merry ride, finally put Obama over, Puerto Rico?!, so he really didn’t have much of a choice, now did he? Anyway, I stick by my belief that Obama is easier for McCain both to poach and protect (i.e.. steal their states and maintain the traditional Republican states) than if running against the Hillary.
[…] had to take his medicine at some point. Like Karl says, better to get it over with now and then not look back, notwithstanding the pro forma statements […]
Two in a row, everybody knows
At the green light you rev it on the red line
Been waitin’ all week to get my wheels on the street
Get my hands on the wheel, slide down in the seat
Shes wearin’ new colors and runnin’ pretty good
I got four hundred horses tucked under the hood
But theres no need to panic, its under control
Were aerodynamic and ready to roll
Rev on the red line
You’re on your own
Rev on the red line
Just let it go
— Foreigner
I think McCain specifically chose re-litigate over any other option. The anti-lawyer slant is intended to play well with the populist sentiments found amongst many ostensibly on the right, especially so in the rural west where the term lawyer is all but synonymous with city slicker.
“I suspect his well-known service in Vietnam makes people think of him as a Boomer  and that the media will get to work on correcting that misimpression in due course.”
You should praise this, truth in media is what both sides want!
I would praise it, except that when the press does it, I suspect that they will not be correcting the public misperception of Clinton’s age.
Sean H,
McCain has a legislative record to tout on “reform” issues that is far superior to either Clinton or Obama (even if I find CFR offensive to free speech). And if we get into a discusssion about the lobbyists surrounding Obama, including the bit about having their spouses donate so that the word “lobbyist” does not show up in the FEC reports, so much the better. I would love an election where voters are disabused of their illusions regarding lobbyists.
Sean:
Oh, please, where do you think all of Obamas millions are coming from? McCain is a well known quantity, a reformer, who ever he has dealt with it has been out for all the world to see. Meanwhile Obama is hanging out with Syrian bag men and raking in the big bucks while he lectures everyone else on lobbyists. My God, the man got the endorsement of the Teamsters, what are they if not big money lobbyists.
As for McCain meeting with Bush, well gee, Bush is the President of the United States. It is not as if people are unaware of the fact that he is a Republican and he is still popular with his base. Besides, who is popular? Pelosi? Reid? There is no such thing right now and unless the price of gas comes down I doubt there will be for some time.
McCain will lose and by a huge margin to either Clinton or Obama. Republican rule has given us a flagrant inability to protect us against attack, to protect us against hurricanes, to protect us against convicted sexual predators (Craig is still in office), protect the Constitution against a unchecked Administrative branch, an inability to keep our toys free of Chinese lead, an inability to keep our food safe, and ABOVE ALL a gross stupidity in conducting war. The Republicans drove America into a ditch and now whine that they should be the ones trusted to drive us out? America ain’t that dumb.
Psmarc93, your cut and paste skills are DA BOMB!!!:
chickens … counting … hatched?
Yep, all of those legion of domestic terrorist attacks since 9/11 that have demoralized our …Hey! Wait a minute!
Is there a big assed hurricane shield wall project about which I am unaware?
But Bill Clinton is not in office! See? The system works!!!
Did somebody dissolve Congress and the Judicial System while I was sleeping? Damn!
They were distracted by their ability to keep us trans fat free. Besides I seem to recall a multi-billion dollar toy recall but that was probably just a fevered dream on my thuggish head.
I’m thinking, like, you never cut yourself, bruise yourself or have any fender benders because you are so darn careful and transcedantly perfect every way. Mary Poppins, is that you?
People just naturally think you are arrogant and obnoxious, don’t they? However, the stupidity is easily rectified by foolishly running away and letting the brown people slaughter each other.
Here’s a tip: Mensa will not be sending you an invitation anytime soon, so stop waiting by the mailbox.
The balloon fence! It’s effective and versatile!
Karl
. Also, he needs to drop “re-litigate† “re-fight†or “re-hash†are simpler and easier to follow. The whole tone could be more blue-collar, really.
I gotta disagree with you big time on that one, dude. I would like for the “more experienced” politician to use precise language, not the intent shadowing, pop culture jive that the Obamas are so fluent in, and proud of.
Speaking as a blue collar guy, I don’t want a blue collar guy in the oval office any more than I want a white collar on the construction job site. And I don’t want a white collar type pretending he’s one of us.
“That dust on your loafers doesn’t make you one of the crew, office boy. Now fuck off back to your desk and get some work for us.”
There needs to be a certain dignity in our President, our representative to the world, reflecting the character of our country as the best and the greatest hope for liberty and prosperity in the world.
Not reflecting shallow, glitzy, pop culture fluff.
That’s one of the reasons I hold Bill Clinton in disdain, He couldn’t maintain dignity in office.
BJTexs: your comedy skills are awesome! Unhatched chicken counting: point conceded, it was a prediciton — here’s another: the sun will come up tomorrow. 9/11 not only happened on Republican “watch” but remember “Al Qeda posed to attack in US” ergo: incompetance to protect us against attack. Katrina aftermath is a legendary history of this Administration’s incompetant response — more than 1000 dead, still little recovery, ergo Republican inablity to protect us. And yes, the Judicial Branch has been ignored, FISA has been ignored. And the lead in toys is supposed to be found BEFORE it falls into our children’s hands, but deregulation and budget cuts by this administration … oh, you know all this. You don’t care that America has gone to hell, that Repbulicans can’t run things, that they can’t even get running a war right — you just care that your guys are in power and damn the rest of the country (brown people and the light people who like them as well). Unburdened by intellegence or a soul must make life seem pretty simple for you.
Wish I could say the same about your critical thinking skills.
Enjoy the blogs; how may I start my own (in the simplest way)through suggestions from one who reads this?
Thanks and best wishes, gene
Thanks for advice on starting a blog, the least complex type….gene
errrr, someone needs a primer on federalism.
huh, I’ve never voted for one of those.
no, no I don’t, please feel free to provide some citations or links to all these things you know. also maybe some pictures of the sky in your world.
I know it’s old, but, um, I’m obviously not sleepy. stinkin’ time change.