With Tuesday’s Florida Democratic primary in flux, the Monday morning dish on the Dems is a pudding without a theme. Well, maybe there’s a dash of theme.
This morning, the New York Times remains on Clinton Disillusionment Syndrome watch:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign team, seeking to readjust after her lopsided defeat in South Carolina and amid a sense among many Democrats that Mr. Clinton had injected himself clumsily into the race, will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton’s loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said.
But Democrats said it was not clear whether the effects of Mr. Clinton’s high profile could be brushed away by having him modulate his campaign style. They said Mr. Clinton had upset some of the central themes of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, including her appeal to women and her assertions that her time in the White House during the 1990s amounted to vital experience rather than a link to a presidency defined as much by scandal and partisan divisions as by its successes on fronts like the economy.
Whether this reflects a Clinton miscalculation or cynical ricochet politics may remain unknown until Bob Woodward decides to write a book about it.
The Clintons probably did not anticipate that Bill’s hatchet-man act would drive Sen. Ted Kennedy into endorsing Sen. Barack Obama over Hillary. I noted back on January 10th that this would be a big deal if it happened, which seemed unlikely at the time. Apparently, Bill’s misbehavior was a bridge too far, even for Ted.
It will be fascinating to see whether the Kennedy nod moves the polls in Massachusetts before Super-Duper Tuesday. Like Sen. John Kerry, Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick (who is black, and an ex-Clintonite, icydk) endorsed Obama to little effect in the polls, but maybe Bay Staters will swoon over the prospect of a black knight at the Round Table in Camelot.
A glance at a round-up of recent polls in the Wall Street Journal (temp.alt.link for non-subscribers) still shows Clinton with double-digit leads in Mass and the other big Super-Duper Tuesday states, with the exception of Georgia (where Obama leads by six points, give or take) and Obama’s home state of Illinois.
But are those Clinton leads fragile?  A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of California (which shows McCain +12, btw) has Clinton up 12% over Obama, ostensibly based on a 20-point lead among women, but was taken before Obama’s win in South Carolina. However, as McPaper itself notes, the “outcome in both parties will be shaped heavily by independents and Latinos.” Bob “The Prince of Darkness” Novak notes both of those factors in his latest column, arguing that Clinton’s supposed lead in the Golden State is misleading:
Clinton has dramatically lost support among blacks, trailing Obama 58 percent to 24 percent. It is a virtual dead heat among white non-Hispanics, 32 percent to 30 percent. Therefore, the 12-point overall lead derives from a 59 percent to 19 percent Clinton edge among Latinos.
In California, the Latino vote is notoriously undependable in actually voting, especially when compared with African-Americans. How the Clinton campaign deals with Hispanic voters is a sensitive matter, but sensitivity never has been a hallmark of the Clinton style.
Insensitivity was reflected in a recent issue of the New Yorker, when Clinton’s veteran Latino political operative Sergio Bendixen was quoted as saying, “The Hispanic voter — and I want to say this very carefully — has not shown a lot of willingness to support black candidates.”
Hillary Clinton is relying on a Hispanic firewall? Do tell! It is the sort of analysis I could have written, maybe adding that Hillary will likely be working the Hispanic GOTV effort hard in what is likely the make-or-break state for the Obama campaign.
* Note that Novak refers to Bendixen as a “political operative,” so that the terminally twitchy do not suspect that he has outed someone from the CIA.
Karl, as an aside regarding the Black-Hispanic split, City Journal has an very interesting article about the so-called Rainbow Coalition and how it never really was and how it is now more like a Rainbow Cold War.
There seems to be (or will be) a lot more Hispanics than Blacks and a cold, cynical, calculating Democrat may decide that Blacks play the same role in the Democrat party that the religious right/social conservatives (was a quick, easy moniker for these ever decided upon?) plays in the Republican party: to wit, where the heck are they gonna vote if not with us?
I don’t understand why the fact that Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama comes as such a surprise.
There has been no love lost between the Kennedy and Clinton camps for quite some time. I can recall it being written about ten years ago. The Kennedys view themselves as the party ‘establishment’ and the Clintonistas as upstarts.
That they have a chance to stick it to the Clintons by supporting a candidate that they think can win should come as no surprise.
The surprise will be if the Clinton – Obama rift becomes so deep that it can’t be patched up after the convention and a Clinton/Obama ticket does not emerge.
jdm,
Thanks for the top.
Tim P,
The surprise is because Ted historically does not endorse until the nomination is sewn up.
jdm,
Thanks also for the tip.
Karl, I’m their for you, man.
“but maybe Bay Staters will swoon over the prospect of a black knight at the Round Table in Camelot.”
Martin Lawrence is hilarious!
Can’t we call it Supercalifragituesday?
Please?
No one wants to reeeeeaaaaaly talk about it… but, sadly, the truth is that the typical Hispanic voter is extremely unlikely to vote for a Black man.
And, as a conservative, the ProdPublicans havent done crap to appeal to the Hispanics. God forbid, you try to appeal to a bunch of Papists… even if it ultimately costs Repubs to be incidental at best in the coming generations.
The surprise is because Ted historically does not endorse until the nomination is sewn up.
True enough, but in this case I’m still not surprised given the behind the scenes venom they have for each other.
Stick a fork in the Wicked Witch.
[…] is an interesting post – talks a bit about hubby Bill’s jumping into the race (Oh, just stay out of it Bill. Go find […]
Apparently, Bill’s misbehavior was a bridge too far, even for Ted.
Tee hee!
The racial vote here in California is gonna be reeeeeeeal interesting to watch. It’s hard to overestimate the friction between the black and hispanic communities in this town. If Hillary tries to play to the hispanics and gets the nomination, look for the black community to stay home on election day…
[…] so far favored Sen. Hillary Clinton, or — recognizing that the Hispanic vote is sometimes undependable – Obama may be seeking to depress Hispanic turnout relative to black […]
The media is saying that Hillary is saying she extended her hand to Barack and he did not take it. All you have to do is look at her eyes. She is looking directly at Senator Kennedy, not Barack. Why not widen the picture. How do you know that he was not talking to someone else first?
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