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Dems 2008: Clinton and Obama ground ops duel toward Super-Duper Tuesday [Karl]

Can Sen. Barack Obama — a former community activist — build an organization from scratch?  The Wall Street Journal (non-subscribers can try Google News for the time being), after noting Sen. Hillary Clinton’s traditional effort to secure endorsements from powerful politicians and preachers in South Carolina, reports:

Mr. Obama, in contrast, is trying something many observers say has never been done here: He is circumventing entrenched local leadership and building a political machine from scratch. His staff consists largely of community organizers — many from out of state or with no political experience — who are assembling an army of volunteers. It is a strategy often used by labor organizations and in neighborhood and town politics.

Some evidence suggests the strategy may be working. After lagging far behind Mrs. Clinton in state polls for much of last year, Mr. Obama has jumped ahead. According to an automated poll conducted Monday by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C., Mr. Obama leads Mrs. Clinton 44% to 28%, with about 12% of respondents undecided. As late as October, Mrs. Clinton had a 20-percentage-point lead in many surveys. Nationally, Mrs. Clinton remains in the lead.

As big a believer as I am in organization, the WSJ glosses over the likelihood that Obama’s victory in Iowa — showing his viability as a candidate — triggered the shift of South Carolina’s substantial population of black voters in the polls.  Nevertheless, it is an organizational story worth watching.  Should Clinton exceed expectations in South Carolina, the organizational difference may tell the tale.

The Washington Post actually came through with a piece on the Clinton and Obama ground games for Super-Duper Tuesday.  The WaPo confirms that the Clinton camp still plans to follow the “trench warfare” strategy outlined in the wake of her Iowa loss – focusing on the big states, those with closed primaries and (of course) Arkansas.  Roughly 40% of the delegates awarded on February 5th will be selected in those states. 

In California — where (like the GOP) most delegates will be awarded by congressional district – Hillary is shoring up her Hispanic firewall to pick up the five delegates that come with the Salinas area:

It is one piece of a puzzle that the campaign is putting together — or, in the words of one strategist, paring down — as it makes budget decisions. “You start out with this huge list of congressional districts and you slowly whittle it down” to ones that are winnable, (a Clinton) adviser said.

Meanwhile, as previously surmised, the WaPo confirms that Obama’s camp sees the caucus states as better suited to their organizational tactics, freeing up resources to win delegates in California and New Jersey, while relying on the black vote to target Georgia and Alabama.

The WaPo kicker comapres the tactical incursions Obama and Clinton are making on each other’s home turf:

The (Obama) campaign is also tackling the No. 2 prize of New York by congressional district, seeking to capitalize on a rule that would grant Obama two-fifths of all delegates if he can hit the 31 percent mark in each district. “We don’t plan to win New York, but we do plan to take a lot of delegates out of there,” Hildebrand said. The Clinton team has the same approach in Illinois. That is why Clinton stopped in St. Louis en route from Las Vegas to New York after winning the Nevada caucuses last weekend, making an appearance that would be seen in crossover media markets in Illinois.

It is more proof — if any was needed — that the overwhelming logistics of Super-Duper Tuesday call for grabbing delegates and media on the cheap.

4 Replies to “Dems 2008: Clinton and Obama ground ops duel toward Super-Duper Tuesday [Karl]”

  1. Peng Dehuai says:

    Hillary give victory in South Carolina to Obama in order to gain xenophobic white votes in rest of bigot South.

    Our government money on Hillary!

  2. BigRed says:

    Take it from Wee-Bey. He’s the black candidate now. And the Democrat Party is going to be sorry when they wake up in a couple months and realize they’re stuck with the Clintons for another 10 months to 4 to 8 years. Sure, we’ll get stuck with them too, maybe. But at least they’re not ours. If we need anything to make people forget about Bush, it’s another few years of Clintonism. Especially this degraded Clintonism, now that everyone knows their games. Bring it on.

  3. […] Peng Dehuai Posted by Dan Collins @ 1:18 pm | Trackback Share […]

  4. […] Peng Dehuai Posted by Dan Collins @ 1:18 pm | Trackback Share […]

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