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Red Silk Stalkings [Dan Collins]

Remember the Chinese pilot who clipped the wing of one of our surveillance planes, causing it to have to land in China, where it was dismantled?  Next up, hide and go seek, according to Bill Gertz in the Washington Times:

A Chinese submarine stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Pacific last month and surfaced within firing range of its torpedoes and missiles before being detected, The Washington Times has learned.

The surprise encounter highlights China’s continuing efforts to prepare for a future conflict with the U.S., despite Pentagon efforts to try to boost relations with Beijing’s communist-ruled military.

The submarine encounter with the USS Kitty Hawk and its accompanying warships also is an embarrassment to the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Adm. William J. Fallon, who is engaged in an ambitious military exchange program with China aimed at improving relations between the two nations’ militaries.

Disclosure of the incident comes as Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, is making his first visit to China. The four-star admiral was scheduled to meet senior Chinese military leaders during the weeklong visit, which began over the weekend.

The incident is a setback for the aggressive U.S.-China military exchange program being promoted by Adm. Fallon, who has made several visits to China in recent months in an attempt to develop closer ties.

However, critics of the program in the Pentagon say China has not reciprocated and continues to deny U.S. military visitors access to key facilities, including a Beijing command center. In contrast, Chinese military visitors have been invited to military exercises and sensitive U.S. facilities.

. . . .

Additionally, military intelligence officials said Adm. Fallon has restricted U.S. intelligence-gathering activities against China, fearing that disclosure of the activities would upset relations with Beijing.

The restrictions are hindering efforts to know more about China’s military buildup, the officials said.

“This is a harbinger of a stronger Chinese reaction to America’s military presence in East Asia,” said Richard Fisher, a Chinese military specialist with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, who called the submarine incident alarming.

Given the long range of new Chinese sub-launched anti-ship missiles and those purchased from Russia, this incident is very serious,” he said. “It will likely happen again, only because Chinese submarine captains of 40 to 50 new modern submarines entering their navy will want to test their mettle against the 7th Fleet.”

Pentagon intelligence officials say China’s military buildup in recent years has produced large numbers of submarines and surface ships, seeking to control larger portions of international waters in Asia, a move U.S. officials fear could restrict the flow of oil from the Middle East to Asia in the future.

21 Replies to “Red Silk Stalkings [Dan Collins]”

  1. A fine scotch says:

    Dan,

    Check the comments over at HotAir.  I’m inclined to agreee with those who say this isn’t a big deal.  We were likely watching that diesel boat not long after it left port.  We let it get that close.

  2. Dan Collins says:

    Thanks, scotch.  Then why’s Gertz reporting it this way?

  3. BJTexs says:

    Dan;

    If I wanted to ruin your day, I’d suggest that this topic is a great opening for the monkeyboy to snigger about China’s ascendancy on the world stage both economically and militarily.

    But I wouldn’t do that to you, so keep up the fair work!

  4. Dan Collins says:

    BJ–

    Yeah, I thought of that, too, but I can count on him getting the details wrong, and that leaves openings for well-informed people to strut their stuff.

  5. BJTexs says:

    Dan:

    You are nothing if not a masochist. Make sure that the blood pressure meds are nearby…

  6. monkyboy says:

    Announcer: We now return to “Knightboat: the Crime-Solving Boat”.

    Michael: Faster, Knightboat!  We gotta catch those starfish poachers.

    Knightboat: You don’t have to yell, Michael, I’m all around you.

    Michael: Oh, no!  They’re headed for land.

    Michael: We’ll never catch them now.

    Knightboat: Incorrect: look!  A canal.

    Homer: Go, Knightboat, go!

    Bart: Oh, every week there’s a canal.

    Lisa: Or an inlet.

    Bart: Or a fjord.

    Homer: Quiet!  I will not hear another word against the boat.

    Hehe, one of my favorite episodes.

    If the U.S. Navy wants to influence events in Asia, it better put wheels on its ships…or hope for a convienient canal/inlet/fjord…

  7. BJTexs says:

    If the U.S. Navy wants to influence events in Asia, it better put wheels on its ships…or hope for a convienient canal/inlet/fjord…

    Cue chimp-anus ignorant comment in 3…2…1…

  8. Slartibartfast says:

    If the U.S. Navy wants to influence events in Asia, it better put wheels on its ships

    Isn’t that how John Kerry got into Cambodia?

  9. BJTexs says:

    If the U.S. Navy wants to influence events in Asia, it better put wheels on its ships

    Hey, Slartibartfast!

    What are those really, really big ships that have a flat top and things fly off of them? Also those smaller ships and underwater craft that have those long, dildo shaped things that launch high into the sky?

    Maybe chimp-anus knows what they are…

    Nah!

  10. cranky-d says:

    It only stands to reason that the most sophisticated military in the world can get fooled by one that’s decades behind in development.

    Or, maybe, it’s all misdirection.

    You choose.

  11. sherlock says:

    FWIW – the Chinese pilot did not “clip the wing” of the US surveillance plane.  He was deliberately flying dangerously close to the P3 Orion to try to intimidate the crew, while over international waters (I have seen the video of another similar harassment incident, apparently involving the same hotshot pilot).  The last time, he miscalculated and flew into one of the propellors – got demoted to pate’, as they say, “chop-chop”!

  12. B Moe says:

    Isn’t that how John Kerry got into Cambodia?

    I thought he used the propellor on his beanie.

  13. Scape-Goat Trainee says:

    It only stands to reason that the most sophisticated military in the world can get fooled by one that’s decades behind in development.

    Or, maybe, it’s all misdirection.

    You choose.

    So what are you trying to say?

    That really we DID detect the submarine (most likely with the Attack Submarine that’s part of the Battle Group), but we want the Chinese to think we can’t? Why would we do that? I mean why would we want to fool them?

    Oh yeah…Umm…nevermind

  14. actus says:

    From what I remember of reading tom clancy, these diesel subs can be quite stealthy when running on their limited battery power. But what does that guy know.

  15. Packetboss says:

    Diesel boats are even quieter than nuclear-powered subs are, particularly at low speeds (5 kts or so). Ever since we lost (traded/sold?) some of our secrets to China, I’ve been concerned about their technological gains… I understand that this incident itself isn’t that scary, but the potential consequences are devastating… The Chinese don’t want us in those waters for many reasons, including their Taiwan ambitions… If (for *whatever* reasons) our carrier battle groups weren’t present in the region, they would be able to do whatever they wanted… It would be very difficult to maneuver a carrier away from a torpedo fired at close range, and when it’s tipped with a nuclear warhead, well, you get the picture…

    Regardless of the fact that some will say that we knew the boat was there all along (*cough*), or whether we were surprised by its sudden appearance (and I suspect the latter), the fact that it was able to get that close to our CVBG is extremely disturbing to me…

    If you want a good read along these lines, pick up some of Patrick Robinson’s fiction (I recommend ALL of his books so far)—while his books are fiction (and comparable to Mr. Clancy’s work), they *are* based in reality. He has an uncanny way of being very on-topic to our world situations… His books Nimitz Class, Kilo Class, and Shark Mutiny are very appropriate to this subject, and will scare you out of your mind… Unfortunately, it’s all very possible… Even worse, the dems are in power now, and there’s no telling what may happen to our military readiness/capabilities in the near future… Sounds like we’re already heading for military budget cuts, and a bigger base on Okinawa… wink

    Just my 2cents…

  16. Rusty says:

    Where do you suppose China stole that technology?

  17. Scape-Goat Trainee says:

    Where do you suppose China stole that technology?

    If you’re talking about Diesel boats…not from us. We haven’t had diesels since well…forever.

    The best Diesel in the world right now is probably the German or Dutch built versions. Although I suspect the Chinese got theirs from the Russians.

  18. Packetboss says:

    Where do you suppose China stole that technology?

    If you’re talking about Diesel boats…

    I’m not refering to diesel boat technology… and I don’t really care who has the best diesel subs out there…

    What I’m concerned with is the lengthy list of known incidents regarding Chinese espionage and illegal sales from legit companies, much of which went on during the 1990s… Of course, then we had the EP-3 incident… I’m *certain* (wink-wink, nod-nod) that the Chinese didn’t do anything to our sensitive crypto plane while it sat there on the tarmac for a week or two… The list is enormous, and that is what concerns me… Their technology is mostly our technology, and that should scare you…

    Look at the “Notes and references” section of this wiki page. Or just read the page… Spare your keyboard – have a barf-bag or trashcan handy…

    Those who think that this incident is a non-event must realize (sooner, rather than later) that an act of war usually follows a time of peace… While that statement sounds over-simplified (and perhaps somewhat stupid), it means that there is nothing to prevent a war from starting that way… In fact, it would make a pretty good first strike, yes? With our military “stretched out,” and our political situation at home (Murtha says Okinawa is the place to be!), there would be no better time to stir up the pot… Noone can be the predictor of irrational actions by others…

    Of course, China isn’t the only one testing our CVBGs… Look at what Tehran claims to have carried out during their recent military exercises… I don’t know what Iranian UAV footage looks like, nor if it’s legitimate, but it concerns me greatly that both China and Iran would be testing the perimeters of our CVBG umbrella at this particular time… Anyone else think that it stinks? I know, call me Mr. Paranoid… I can go back to living a worry-free life now, right?

    2 cents + 2 cents = 4 cents

  19. BJTexs says:

    Packetboss:

    That Wik article was very depressing.

    I’m with you that those 2 incidents, taken together, are cause for concern. So much of our ability to project force is based upon the assumption that Carrier battle groups are virtually invulnerable through a combination of escort submarines, fighter cover, Aegis and AWACS radar cover and, at worse, anti missile, air and ship systems.

    Still trying to figure out why the Chinese sub surfaced. Is it possible that they got a “massive pinging” that might have screwed up some systems? I’m trying to be positive here while my stomach roils…

  20. Packetboss says:

    Still trying to figure out why the Chinese sub surfaced.

    My personal, non-professional, opinion as to why he surfaced is that he wanted to shoot a proverbial middle-finger at the US Navy. In his actions, he was stating: “Howdy Mr. US Carrier! I could have hit you 5 minutes ago, and you wouldn’t have seen it coming.”

  21. BJTexs says:

    **sigh**

    I think that I’ll just assume a delusional personality today and go with the extraordinary pinging thing.

    More meds…

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