Is it my fading memory, or has this polical season been the worst ever? I blush to admit that I’ve only followed politics starting with the 2000 election season, and even then, I didn’t pay all that much attention. Most of my information was from sound-bites from sparingly-watched news programs, and from the Maclaughlin group. Once I started reading blogs, which I think was around 2001, I slowly morphed into a political junkie. The invasion of Iraq was the start of my FauxNewz viewing, since they not only had the best coverage but they were really gungho about it. I would switch to CNN and MSNBC to see what was going on, but they just didn’t do it for me. I’m sure that brands me a complete partisan hack in the (apparently present since they can walk, talk, and often type) minds of lefties.
Maybe it’s the worst season because so much is at stake, in my opinion. I’m still a one-issue voter, just like in 2004, and Iraq is that issue. The Dems are unserious when it comes to the war on terror, of which Iraq is, for better or worse, a central battlefield. It seems so obvious to me that we have to stay there indefinitely that I cannot understand why anyone thinks we should get out. The consequences of our leaving are terrible to contemplate. We would eventually have to return, and the next time we would have no choice other than to be brutal (which we could argue would’ve been the correct move the first time).
However, I didn’t really want to talk about the war. I want to talk about my take on polls.
First of all, a disclaimer. I will provide no links supporting any position I take. I don’t do that; so many others do it better than I. Arrogant? Yup. I embrace the characterization.
I’ve taken one political poll in the last year. It was on immigration. I hated half the questions I was asked since none of the answers for those questions was the one I wanted to give. Instead, one must choose the answer which is closest to ones opinion. Most of us, I think, know that a close answer can often miss the mark by a wide margin. In any case, I will not answer a poll ever again (or at least until the sting of the last one wears off).
Up until that poll, I was pretty sure that polls suffered to a greater or lesser extent from what you might call a question bias. I think the big one lately is that age-old oft-reported question on whether you like Bush’s handling of the war. The answer that always seems to be missing is the one such that we want him to pursue the war more vigorously. That’s the answer I would give, and I claim that there’s a polling bias keeping that answer from being present. Or we have a very generic question like, “Who do you think can handle the war better, Democrats or Republicans?” The reasoning behind the answers to that question can come from all over the map. I think that after all the information loss from distilling a position down to a simple answer, the answer is to an extent meaningless.
It makes for good TV, though.
I think polls are biased from the get go. I think people who are inclined to vote Democrat are much more likely to answer polls than those tending to vote Republican, no matter how they self-identify when it comes to reported party affiliation. This is obvious since polls almost always have a higher number of self-identified Democrats as respondents. Furthermore, I claim that among those self-reporting as Indepenent or even Republican there will still be a tendency to lean left more than one might think. If I’m correct, then even if you correct the polls for over and under-sampling, the results will still not be accurate.
The reasons I believe that polled people tend left politically are anecdotal. People who tend to be conservative don’t like to share their political opinions with strangers as much as those who tend to be “liberal.” I’ve seen many commenters on conservative blogs who have stated that they either refuse to answer polls or lie and say they are voting straight D just to screw up the poll, which could indicate a lack of desire to talk politics and/or a distrust in polls in general. The only people I have seen who seem to want to talk politics at any time are lefties. I’ve been to more than one party in which someone has to bring up how great it is to be a Dem, and how awful other people are. Others happily join in. The circle jerk usually goes on for about ten minutes before they find something else to say. I’ve never seen righties do that. The only times I’ve had a righty I didn’t know well introduce anything political into a conversation, they did it very carefully. I’ve heard Dems say “I hate Republicans” more than once. I’ve never heard a Republican say “I hate Democrats.” I’ve had liberals be surprised when they discovered I believe in G-d, because they couldn’t believe someone who is (somewhat) intelligent could believe in G-d. I conclude they have a “We’re the best and the brightest” mentality, that they love to share their wisdom with others, and that people with that mindset will tend to poll leaning left, whether they think they are to the left or not. Hence my statement that they are highly oversampled and under-report as Dems.
I wouldn’t be complete without noting feedback bias in polls. For instance, the economic numbers indicate that this economy is doing pretty well. However, people seem to think it isn’t doing well, and this is reflected in polls. I imagine that this is because people are being told daily that the economy isn’t all that great, and hearing that news, they believe it. Perhaps they are doing okay, but they believe their neighbors have it bad. I really don’t know. When the same economic indicators result in one polling result during a Democrat administration and the opposite result during a Republican administration, one wonders what is going on. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out.
If I were paranoid, I might claim there’s a conspiracy in polling designed to dishearten the Republicans and keep them from voting. However, I doubt that’s the case since most polls are conducted by agencies that want to earn money. Money trumps just about all biases unless you’re already very rich. If there were truly a bias introduced by the polling agencies, I would expect that a new agency which was better at prediction would spring up and make a lot more money. I trust those market forces.
I’ve noted that the polls are tightening up quite a bit lately. I’m not sure what that means. It could mean more “real” Republicans are responding to polls for some reason. It could mean that people are being more honest about reporting their party affiliation. Or it could mean my theory is complete crap. We’ll know Tuesday.
Update: I never considered the possibilty of Republican voters lying to pollsters to annoy Democrats. I should’ve known better. I don’t think Democrats would ever do that. I guess my theory is shot to hell already.
Yes, this has been the ugliest election season EVAR, at least to my recollection. Blame it on the Intarweb.
I tend to lie during polls. Part of it is because I think most polls, including exit polling, are bunk and should be done away with. Part of it is because, if I and others didn’t lie, what would the Dems have to scream about when the numbers actually showed the truth – that they’re losing every time? Most Republicans don’t have time to answer polls anyway, we’re too busy figuring out how to make piles of cash, take candy from babies, achieve world domination, and screw the poor.
Crap, this posted before I was done. I blame Bush.
I have no idea whether this election is worse than any other. Of course, the first election I ever actually worked in was Goldwater ‘64—I couldn’t vote yet, but I could hand out literature and buttons. Seemed pretty nasty to me.
Polls? I always lie to pollsters. Somewhere in the Democrats’ records are a succession of PhD candidates making $100K+ per year who always vote for them. I really hope it gives them a warm feeling of confidence, because I really, really enjoy the look on a Democrat’s face when he or she loses.
This year I voted early because I’ll be out of town next week, so the question of exit polls didn’t arise—not that it would, anyway; my countrified Texas district is fairly reliably red above the State legislator level, so the likelihood of the Media asking anybody around here about voting preferences is low. Friday night at the Chinese restaurant the conversations revolved around Kerry. Summary: “Those assholes!” Note the plural.
But the few times I have responded to exit polls the pollsters have had reason to be confident of one more in their (i.e. the Democrat) column. As I said, it’s such fun to watch their faces fall.
Regards,
Ric
I agree this is the ugliest election ever. I get this overwhelming feelingn of dread with each trip to the mailbox.
It’s just hysterical that so many people for the environment send me 15 mailers a day!
You make an intersting point as far as the polls go. I used to do a whole lot of them. I was on several consumer/consumption groups whereby I got loads of free samples in exchange for answering questionaires. Also got some cash.
And my phone number was soon used for all sorts of political polls.
And you’re absolutely right as far as no answer fitting your beliefs. I would always say that I didn’t like any of those options and they always came back with, “But if you have to pick one?”. Not accurate at all. And when I wouldn’t pick one, I suspect they picked it for me.
I also hung up on them when the poll was taking longer than they stated at the beginning of the conversation, or when their english was so bad I had no idea what they were saying.
And it’s not just election season. It’s the start of the holiday season, so I’m also afraid to answer my phone.
I give plenty to charity, but I hate the fact they make a note of my phone numeber from my check.
And I don’t have a land line, my cell is not listed,
so I know that’s where the calls come from.
No, no, it just isn’t complete.
The element you haven’t considered is pollsters. They don’t make much, the work is extremely short-term and irregular, and they have to be at least a bit educated to cope with the complexity of the answers—total dullards need not apply.
Guess which demographic is able to respond to those conditions by applying? Right. Go down to the unemployment office (parnme, the Workforce Commission—gaah) a few weeks before the election and look at the flyers. College students and the unemployed.
So even if the organizers of the poll are on the up and up, there’s an automatic bias in favor of Democrats in the people who actually take the polls. I forget where I saw it or I’d give the link, but somebody just mentioned a poll organization who discovered that their systematic bias came from having a large number of female college students as poll takers. Strangely enough, their results tilted Democratic…
As for the market, polls are overwhelmingly paid for by the Media; there are no market forces that push polling in the direction of neutrality. If anything, the market makers, that is, the people writing checks, are biased, not so much in favor of Democrats (although that’s so) as in favor of dissension, discord, hostility, and other wonderful things that (they think) make good headlines and/or sound bites. In this case Changing the Guard makes a good story, so the polls will indicate that.
Just some factors to add in. And I don’t think I’m the only person who votes Republican and lies like a rug when the pollster calls.
Regards,
Ric
I believe MacCain/Feingold should have stopped polling 60 days before an election, rather than political speech.
Lunar, I agree, it’s a hoot when 20 lbs. of dead trees are shipped to your door every 2 years…by people bragging how much they do for the enviroment.
I vote absentee, so they are really wasted on me. I voted 2 weeks ago, so all the flyers don’t even get a glance before heading for the landfill.
(Democrat, not card-carrying).
I’ve answered three polls this season, scrupulously honestly, refusing to answer questions if I don’t like the choices. You all are right about the time it takes – when they say 5 minutes, they mean 10-15.
At least two of the polls appeared to have been commissioned by two of the people in two of the local races (both Rep, not completely sure). Both appeared to be trying out material for attack ads.
These were irritating, but handled by answering honestly that certain lines of attack wouldn’t work.
Nope, you’re not. Sometimes, there’s no other choice. Not like the pollsters want to know what you honestly think.
Yup, it’s all wasted on me. My apt. lobby is filled about 3 feet deep w/election crap nobody reads.
Now, I did keep one of the local measure’s attractive cds. I’ll put it on the pile of AOL cds that I use for coasters.
I’m saving all my AOL cds to make a mobile.
Ha! I did this also. I hung it from my back porch light to keep the pigeons away. I heard they hated shiny things. Worked for 3 days.
Then I put them all over my window air conditioner so they would quit pooping on that. Lasted about 2 hours. They knocked them right off and went right back to pooping!
Totally OT, I know.
Back to that nuisance election….
Pigeons are obviously Democrat trolls, always pooping all over the place where they’re not wanted.
I have never given an honest answer to a pollster. Just my way of stickin it to the man.
Hmmm. I had not thought of them in partisan terms before, but you may be on to something.
They carelessly drop their eggs on their way to the corner gutter also.
Abortions all over my back porch!!
lunar,
Try setting some armed mouse traps on your A/C.
Then post the video…I want to see what happens.
lee, I have heard this suggestion before.
Can’t do it, no way. I don’t want to kill them, I just would like to lessen the amount of bird poo on my porch.
My next tactic will be Christmas tinsel!
Well, pigeons are just winged rats, but OK.
How about devising some pointy cone thing you could set on it, steep enough so they couldn’t land there?
I read the same thing, and I can’t remember where either, but the problem was more specific than that, limited to female polisci grad students, not random coeds, who don’t cause the same non-random “I’m not talking to that asshole” data skew.
Please refrain from saying things like this out loud here, lunarpuff. We have a reputation to consider, after all.
lee, you are such a sweetie. I almost want to give up on the free house thing. Don’t think I could stand it if you hated me enough to give me a free house!
Now, true story. I once (many years ago) walked into a store asking about bird killer. We have no problem with killing rats, piegeons were a no brainer.
DO NOT DO THIS! Dear God, I thought they would call the FBI.
So, I have made my peace with pigeons… They are very smart by the way.
I just get damned tired of stepping all over the damned poop!
Oops, B Moe, missed your comment.
Of course, I meant to say everything that poops should be killed!
Cuz, we all know that’s what I’m about!
So much for every non-plant lifeform on the planet, then.
Yeah, cranky I haven’t worked it all out.
I’m tryin’. Baby steps, I take!
Gosh, thanks lunar, that’s the nicest thing anyones said to me all year!
All year? Well, that’s not right.
And I guarantee other females here feel the same. Spoken or unspoken.
And plenty of other good guys here as well.
This was the stupidest election ever with the dumbest, most partisan media coverage I’ve ever seen (today the WaPo and NYT) rather admit they sucked.
And we are faced with the most substantial threat.
It’s very dispiriting–vote R and kick the press in the nuts.
Love, Mom
The love, mom part is fantastic and quite the hoot!
My own mom is from the Chicago Democratic Machine. Vote early , vote often, vote Irish!
Do not attempt to talk about the issues, you HEATHEN!
I have a dear friend who just happens to be a liberal of the “hippy, flaming” kind. We have established the ground rules that state that we can get as nasty, gutterlike, and abusive in our conversations when it comes to politics, but we leave it behind when it’s done.
I know that it sounds wierd and there have been times when I wanted to string him up by his ankles and beat him like a carpet but the secret is not taking our individual views personnally. He trash talks about hoping that I will be “cryin’ in my beer” Tuesday night, but acknowledges that he, like the rest of us, doesn’t have a clue how this is going to turn out.
He, like the good bleeding heart that he is, faithfully responds to polls but, as a trained journalist, understands the limitaions of the questions and answers. He and I both agree that when the percentages fall into the 6% nobody is going to have any idea who will win. I told him yesterday that it comes down to how well the ‘Thugs get out the base vote Vs. how effectively the dead are voting democrat.
I think that he called me a “wingnut bitch.” That was after I had called him a “pansy assed viet vet.”
Not all poll questions are biased. “Which of these two candidates/parties do you plan to vote for in the coming election?” isn’t so easy to fudge. And if the results do show a bias? Maybe the bias is real, and it derives in the answers by the people who took the poll? Maybe they actually are less likely to vote for Republicans this year and not primarily because the pollsters are doing jedi mind tricks.
Yes, there are many ways to make the questions biased. Sometimes it’s a variation on the “Are you still beating your wife?” scenario. Sometimes it’s the terminology: “inheritance tax” doesn’t poll quite as poorly as “death tax,” to cite just one example. And some questions just don’t have any good answer: do I consider myself a member of the “investment class”? Those jackasses with the ascots and the yachts? or it that just anyone with a pension or a 401k? Who cares?
Go to Zogby.com, sign up for polls, and answer some. It’s not hard. It’s not biased (though all these Wal-Mart questions are getting on my nerves). And they’re able to change questions if you act cranky enough (they finally stopped making me type “atheist” as my religious preference, now it’s a clickable choice).
An on-line poll anyone can go to and sign up for is not biased?
Self-selected participation! It’s like, democracy, man!
What have you got against democracy, man!?
Lie early and often.
Yeah. And like I said, left-leaning people seem to like taking polls more often than right-leaning people. What you said doesn’t negate my point. In fact, you actually support it.
Anyway, thanks to all the evil minions of Karl Rove who dropped by, and extra thanks to Ric. I think I get it now. We know polls are screwed up, so why not give phony answers that get all the Dems jacked up so their hopes can be dashed later? If I get exit-polled, I know what I’m going to say now: “Straight D-ticket.”
Maybe I can get a few of “them” to stay home.
What’s interesting is that <a href=”http://www.vote.com” target=”_blank”>
usually has a large voter base and seems to lean right/conservative.
They have a question about John Kerrry up and it has about 36,000 votes.
The consensus is that he’s a fuckfaced poser.
The Dems would say the poll numbers skew right there because none of us conservatives know how to spell words more than four or five letters long.
The consensus among the saner left and the centrists is that Kerry is a fuckfaced poser. Between his anti-military comments and that he’s hoarding his ‘04 warchest instead of using it to help candidates who he’s hurt with his anti-military comments, I’d be surprised if he’s ever nominated to run for anything again, other than his safe seat in Massachusetts. But hey, look at the quality politicians they like to elect there.
I’d be surprised if *any* poll, other than one conducted on DU or Kos, didn’t consider him an idiot.
Here’s a challenge: after this election, find a scientific poll from the past week where the actual election numbers fall outside the margin of error. I bet there will be some, but not many and not by much.
Damning the messenger should be based on whether or not the message is a true one.
…still waiting!