Via DEBKAfile:
Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year, moves Shahab-3 missiles within striking range of Israel
[…]
Reporting this, the dissident Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a US-based watch group, cites sources in the US and Iran. The FDI adds from Iran: on June 16, the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force ordered Shahab-3 missile units to move mobile launchers every 24 hours instead of weekly. This is in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the US or Israel.
Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamad within striking distance of Israel, reserve launchers moved to Esfahan and Fars.
The missile units were told to change positions “in a radius of 30-35 kilometers†and only at night.
DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: FDI reporting has a reputation for credibility. Western and Israeli intelligence have known for more than six months that Iran’s nuclear program has reached the capability of being able to carry out a nuclear explosion, albeit underground. It would probably be staged in a desert or mountain region and activated by a distant control center. Tehran would aim at confronting the Americans, Europeans and Israelis with an irreversible situation.
At the same time, an explosion of this sort would indicate that Iran is not yet able to produce a nuclear bomb that can be delivered by airplane or a warhead adapted to a missile. The stage Iran has reached is comparable to Pakistan’s when it conducted its first nuclear tests in the nineties and North Korea’s in 2001. All the same, an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole.
The question now is: will the United States, Israel or both deliver a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Iranian underground test – or later? Or will Washington alternatively use the event to bring the UN Security Council round to economic sanctions? Tehran is already organizing to withstand economic penalties. For Israel, the timing is getting tight in view of its general election on March 28. Acting prime minister Ehud Olmert must take into account that a ruling party which allows an Iranian nuclear explosion to take place six days before the poll would draw painful punishment from the voter.
Then there’s this, from the Telegraph (UK):
Iran has secretly extended the uranium enrichment plant at the centre of the international controversy over its resumption of banned nuclear research earlier this month, satellite imagery has revealed.
Seven buildings have been erected around the concealed centrifuges which Western governments fear will be used to manufacture weapons-grade uranium at the Natanz site, 200 miles south of Teheran.
The Natanz site in 2003 and 2006: Click to enlarge
The discovery has heightened fears that Iran is stepping up the pace of its suspected weapons programme, in breach of international agreements, since it removed International Atomic Energy Authority seals on nuclear equipment at the site 10 days ago.Western intelligence agencies are focusing on alarming similarities in satellite imagery of Iran’s nuclear sites, which the regime claims are for civilian purposes, and atomic facilities in Pakistan used to make the raw materials for nuclear weapons, as they try to identify the purpose of the Natanz construction spree.
The building work took place unannounced during a 16-month pause in research and development at the site, while Iran engaged the West in protracted talks over its professed desire to develop nuclear power. The existence of the Natanz site was kept secret until it was exposed by an Iranian opposition group in 2002. Iran started to move funds out of the European banks on Friday to avoid possible financial sanctions after its scientists resumed work. The showdown has contributed to soaring world oil prices and a slump on Wall Street stock markets.
The Sunday Telegraph has seen recent United States intelligence analysis of satellite photographs of nuclear sites in Iran and Pakistan that strengthens fears that the Islamic regime is secretly developing atomic weapons under the guise of a supposedly peaceful power programme. “Iran’s facilities are scaled exactly like another state’s facilities that were designed to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons,” the US report concluded, using the phrase “another state” to refer to Pakistan for diplomatic reasons.
We are witnessing the Cuban missile crisis of our era, I fear—only this time, we can’t rely on the secret agnosticism of the communists to save face and blink; instead, we have the heavenly assurance of a diety who insists that it is an Islamic mandate to conquer and force submission—even if that means doing so by vaporizing millions of people who stand in the way of Allah’s will.
(h/t Link Mecca)
Along the same lines, Todd Peters forwards me this bit from the Boroumand Foundation, which he describes as “a testimonial to individual victims of the Iranian government’s ‘enlightened view’ of how to treat those who think incorrectly. A regime that is about to obtain nuclear weapons.
“If this doesn’t scare a person, they are too delusional to be scared.
“As with Iraq’s gassing of the Kurds, Iran’s elimination of the Bahais in the 80’s, which was woefully under reported by the MSM, will be used by the left if we take action against Iran to condemn those who would defend freedom by saying we didn’t care then and we only do now because of the oil.”
“Used by the left.” How depressingly popular that phrase has become in recent years…
But don’t you see, none of this has anything to do with the real point!
The real issue is, How can we frame this to get Hillary elected in ‘08?
I think it may be time for us to get really angry if the Democrats and their groupies pull out another roll of duct tape regarding this.
We have a hell of a lot more to lose now.
My wanker was “used by the left” – I had a blister on my right hand.
Yeah, but what about Pat Robertson? He’s a fundamentalist too!
tw: Ask a stupid question…
Jeff:
the secret agnosticism of the communists
I’ll plead guilty at the start to pedantry but the communists really weren’t “agnostic.” Agnostic in the sense of not knowing or having doubts.
They knew (or thought they knew).
And they didn’t keep it much of a secret either.
More like “open or explicit atheism”, it seems to me.
SMG
– If this intel is accurate it sounds like events are further along than suspected, and explains Tehrans sudden uptick in bluster. If Tehran actually does do the described test Isreal will strike. That would be the straw that nuked the camels ass. We might as well be prepared for it.
The Mullahs see it as their only chance for long term survival, even if the odds against success is 10,000 to 1. They, like the Russians before them, are mis-reading Western caution, and diplomatic doggedness, as an ultimate unwillingness to act. Apparently extremists never learn the lessons of podium shoe bangers, Lybian fakers, or palace building lunitics.
TW: Probably the only hope left to avoid “glassy-ation” of the Iranian sands is an internal uprising, where the price is deemed too high by the moderate dissidents.
Whether it be right or wrong, I cannot say I would blame Israel if they attacked Iran. Call it self survival.
Iran has sent in women and children to shield the nuke plants.
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2006/01/iran-sends-in-children-human-shields.html
ElBaradei’s official position has been upgraded to extremely annoyed.
Someone want to remind me why Iran and the U.S. are morally equivalent, again? Because, it seems to me, even Iran itself is currently predicating its defenses on a knowledge of the differing moral sensibilities of its enemies which even certain members of the Western left *cough*Phoeny*cough* either don’t possess or refuse to acknowledge.
Worse, they probably have sophisticated air defense systems purchased from the Chinese. Which is going to make ordinary air-strikes difficult.
Thing is, nobody in Washington seems to have any idea of what to do about the Iranians.
Other than issue rhetorical threats.
My own suspicion is that the Iranians have spread out their nuclear facilities in such a manner than no air-strike will be able to take them out of the game completly.
But not to worry, Karl Rove says the GOP is the party of the post 9-11 period.
And they’re in charge, supposedly…..
You miss my point, SMG. I know what they claimed to be—and that they pretended that their materialism drove their philosophy—but I called it a secret agnosticism because I think underneath the ideological facade was beating the heart of uncertainty, which provided just enough in the way of cautiousness to prevent an all out meltdown.
Jeff has an excellent point. The Iranis aren’t uncertain at all. They want to go forward with impunity.
I think we need to stop thinking about “how do we get rid of Irani nuclear facilities” and focus more on how we can strategically attack Iran, while using other military, political, and diplomatic strategies, to choke the regime to death. I seriously doubt the vast majority of Iranis want to perpetuate this regime that’s driving them closer and closer to Hell. We need to weaken the regime enough that it can fall over.
Heck, bring in the Shah’s son and install him as puppet emperor of Iran. Anything but the theocracy.
We need to blockade Iran with ships. We need the impose total economic and political sanctions – a true embargo – on Iran. We need to threaten Russia, China, and any other Iran-friendly state that we will attack them if they break the embargo. We need to issue clear demands: the resignation of Ahmadinezhad, the resignation of Khamene’i, the resignation of all unelected officials (including the Guardian Council), a signed and Parliament-endorsed statement disavowing any military use of nuclear technology, free and fair elections of all politicians who wish to participate (no elimination of candidates based on politics or religious issues), and the immediate full opening of nuclear facilities to inspectors from the US and the UK.
Barring that, testing a nuclear device in Nevada/Utah/Arizona/some desert state should stir the world to some action. Sure, they’ll condemn us, but they’ll be swift to change out of their soiled clothes and get to de-escalating the crisis. We’re still being seen as weak and unwilling.
There’s a lot we can/need to do. But in the end, everyone is confused and unsure what the best way to proceed is. I’m confused, too, despite all my rhetoric and ideas.
To be honest, I thought Bush was overreaching when he included Iran in the axis of evil. He has proven me wrong once more. I have faith Bush will, once again, made the correct choices. We have no other choice right now.
Has anybody here gone “in” to see what the left is saying? I just sort of peaked around the corner a bit. Just as I suspected. I’m hearing, we heard this last year, this is just propaganda to get us worked up to go attack Iran for nothing. And of course the old meme, “It’s all about the oil”.
Arachnoleptic fit: The frantic dance performed just after you’ve accidentally walked through a spider web.
World renowned investigative reporter and terror expert Kenneth R. Timmerman, author of the bestselling book “Countdown to Crisis: the Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran,” and Carl Limbacher, reporter for NewMax.com, reveal that the US and Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities in less than 10 weeks from now.
http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/2006/01/timmerman-military-attack-against-iran.html
Jeff, you said
I disagree with the uncertainty part. I think that the communists didn’t so much depart from the concept of god, as conciously replace god with man. All of the other philosophical/ethical questions were then glossed over in the name of dialectical materialism and the revolution.
I think that at the beginning the Bolsheviks were fanatical about their new ‘religion of man.’ All of these movements, from Lenin to Hitler to Earthfirst are based on a religious intensity about whatever it is they believe in. They simply appropriate the belief system and replace it with their god of the day.
Now the present western Europe, the extreme left in this country i.e. many of the democrats, they really have moved past any concept of god. IMHO.
I’m not being pro or anti god here, but if you abandon your moral/ethical system, you won’t find much worth fighting for until you replace it with another. I don’t think any of those above mantioned groups are there yet. Hence their inability to get excited about religious fanatics who want to kill us all. Be they Islamofascists or born again republicans. They feel that they are too primitive to be taken on a serious level. One of the reasons I think that they are so quick to resort to name calling instead of engaging in honest debate.
That being said…
I’m not sure that the freakshow running Iran thinks that they have the direct line to god so much as that is the stick they used to get and maintain power. I think that perhaps this regieme is gambling on our inability to act, self-division, and what they see as decadence. A mistake that’s been made before.
What scares me about the present regieme is that after all of their macho posturing and fulminating perhaps they really will act because they are so bankrupt, the only other choice is defeat from within or without.
What’s left to say about folks who send children out to clear minefields, as the Iranians did during their war with Iraq? I wouldn’t call that religious from any point of view.
Perhaps FDI has a reputation for accuracy but I wish I could say the same for DEBKAfile. They used to get posted every so often on Lucianne during the buildup to the attack on Hussein and for some time afterwords and frankly, they batted .000 all the way through.
It’s high time that the mud mullahs tasted a little shock and awe. I think we could effect regime change in 6-8 weeks with minimal casualties. But the MSM insists on portraying war with Iran as possibly catastrophic.
It’s amazing how much the MSM shades all of this: by all accounts, the war in Iraq has gone much better than most analysts predicted and yet the MSM loves to throw around words like “quagmire”. I swear, if Bush found a cure for cancer, they’d ask why he didn’t find it sooner and desribe the past five years as a cancer “quagmire”.
This doesn’t ring completely true to me. How did the Iranians acquire enough weapons-grade fissionables to build even one device? If they did, it’s probably enough for precisely one, and the next is 3-5 years away assuming Murphy’s law or the israelis (or americans) don’t disrupt the program during that time.
I strongly recommend the pieces (first 2 out of 3) at ArmsControlWonk (pointed out by RightWingNutHouse): part1 and part 2
How does this spin for Hillary? She has been building up to this moment for awhile. Plays right into her hands.
Whether, of course, she means it or not.
ScienceMike: back in 2000 or so I used to read a lot (or, better, a load) of Debka.
Then I grew up.
marianna, the MSM is completely off its rocker- exhibit A is Iraq after major combat which is hysterical fear-mongering with grim milestones everywhere, exhibit B is Iraq during major combat operations when an operation pause was hysterically labeled a quagmire (the reason I refuse to watch CNN…ever again), and exhibit C is Iraq before major combat operations, when everything from destroyed dams, environmental disasters, Baghdad-grad and WMD were invoked for the thousands of casualties that surely awaited the US.
Iran is a hard case, but US troops are harder. And now they are battle-tested. What’s more, they have weapons that didn’t exist in the past.
Take the Small Diameter Bomb that will be ready by the end of this year in some capacity. It will be in mass production within the next three years, by which time Iran will go nuclear ready or not.
A single B-52 can carry up to 216 of these bombs (2000lb. class, similiar to the JDAM, up from 18 JDAM or ~51 500 lb. conv. bombs). In other words, a single B52 (or B-2) mission could destroy every single vehicle in an entire tank battalion or every tank in an entire division from up to 70 miles away. Times that by 200 for the 100 B52s, 100 B1s and 20 B2s, and add another 100 (times 16 bombs) strike craft for every carrier we have in the region and every airbase in Iraq/Afghanistan.
I’m no airpower enthusiast, but it is pretty tough to beat that amount of firepower. ouch.
More here.
If they have a single warhead, with the potential to get more material in the near future (and 3-5 years fits that timeframe, though I think it’s way over-estimated), then a test would be a great way to buy more time.
First, everyone would know they have bombs—the seismic data would be conclusive. Second, you can’t assume they shot their last, no matter what the CIA is saying.
It would change the estimates of the cost of striking them from “potentially very large conventional war” to “potentially very large nuclear war”. And that would probably buy them enough time to make more warheads.
If the Mullahs weren’t very nice to their Bahais when they had M16’s and Mirage jets at their disposal, how might they treat our Quakers when they have nukes at hand ?
More on point, I think the report that Iran will test its nukes before April has the same diaphanous timbre as the one about Saddam unplugging baby-incubators in Kuwait.
Could the report be dime-store anti-regime propaganda? And can’t we do better?
-Steve
Robert Crawford,
a “device” is not a warhead. Read the linked articles; the author lays out a convincing schedule for a crash program. The timeline is completely dominated by the production of enough HEU. Delivery systems are covered in the second piece.
[The third article strike options has also been posted, and is also quite interesting]
The comments on these articles are also interesting.
There are certainly wheels within wheels here. Dissidents who desire the overthrow of their government should automatically be considered suspect sources of information. It’s important to listen to them, but independently verify.
– This is precisely the miscallculation that the Mad Mullahs are making. Any sort of demonstrated nuclear capibility would be the primitore for Isreal to act. If that indeed proves to be Tehrans plan its simply suicidal. Which, unfortunately, in no way means they’re smart enough to realize that.
Given that the Iranians have purchased the plans for their device, odds are it’s already a warhead design.
Since their crash program has been running longer than the Manhattan Project, I’m not comfortable betting we have much of a margin.
– Whats ironic is that the picture of the Middle East has changed so dramatically in the past 10 years, and even moreso in the past 3, in response to the Jihad. I failed to mention this in my earlier post, but its the third leg in the tripod of reasons for the sudden uptick in sabre rattling and bluster by the Shia Mullahs in Tehran. If you look at the demographic of the region now you see Egypt, Lybia, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Portions of Pakistan, and now Iraq, essentially at peace, if not rock solid stability. Iran finds itself surrounded rather than Isreal. Iran, Jordon to some extent, Syria, small areas in the Russian steppes, some area’s of Northern Pakistan, Hamas and a few other smaller groups in the Palistine areas, a few feudal tribes in Indonesia and elsewhere, pretty much comprises the core of whats left of the Wahhabi Celiphate Jihadist movement. The actions of Iran clearly show a desperation to stem the tide of a flaging Muslim extremist campaign support worldwide, as well as the other two things I mentioned, added to the fear of their own internal moderates. I don’t think they had a clue of the depth of world, and principlly American response, when they planned the Al Qeada adventures. Unfortunately for the region, they’re apparently determined to repeat the same mistakes….
The compelling issue to me is not what the mullahs are thinking, or what their strategic goals are (or how to thwart them). Ultimately, they WILL be defeated.
It’s a question of how much damage they are able to do on the way out.
Steve said above,
Hmm, let’s see. Ahmadinejad was voted in, in an election so crooked that only the likes of Jimmy Carter could keep a straight face.
Soon after that, the new ‘president-elect’ publicly threatens to ‘wipe Israel off of the map.’ He then proceeds to reopen nuclear facilities in direct defiance of the UN. Oh, he also publicly states that the holocaust never happened. He begins a serious crackdown of any dissidents and additionally, we know Iran has missiles, thanks to North Korea.
And you call this ‘dime-store anti-regime propaganda?’
Do you seriously think that the US and Israel are going to act simply because they don’t like the mullah’s attitude? Do you think that Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf states won’t be quietly breathing a sigh of relief? Do you think that if we pretend it isn’t happening that nothing will happen? Are you a democrat?
How pithy, but how unfortunately too real for tens of thousands of Bahais and others who died horrible and premature deaths. Do you think that these cold blooded murderers have all of a sudden had some sort of epiphany and will now behave in a more nuanced fashion?
It amazes me how you can treat matters of grim and horrible reality with such callow disregard.
Robert Crawford
Since their crash program has been running longer than the Manhattan Project, I’m not comfortable betting we have much of a margin.
?What’s the evidence for this? The time consuming part of such a crash program is accumulation of enough weapons-grade fissionables. If they had significant centrifuge cascades already running in a secret mountain facility, why on earth would they be removing the seals from the monitored facilities and starting up “research” and inviting massive bunker-busting airstrikes? And there is no evidence that I know of that they’ve been secretly been making and reprocessing plutonium?