Ray Smith sends along this bit from NRO’s Michael Ledeen suggesting—almost off-handedly in a disquisition on the changing demographic of the Islamic terror movment (and by way of Iranian sources)—that UBL is dead and buried:
There’s an old Chinese theory according to which the best way to understand historical events is not to reconstruct the sequence of “causes” by which the events were “produced,” but rather to look at the unique characteristics of the moment in which the events occurred. I know there’s an old Chinese theory for most anything, but this one has stayed with me ever since I first read about it in an essay by Carl Gustav Jung, and back in the Eighties it occurred to me that Pope John Paul II had understood its wisdom. The pope once remarked that there were times when dramatic change was impossible, and at such moments anyone who tried to achieve it was like the fool beating his head against a stone wall. But there were other times when the acts of a single individual could change the world. He knew he was living at such a time, and he saw his mission as inspiring individuals to take those actions, and change the world for the better. That was one reason why his famous call, “be not afraid,” was so right for those times, and why a handful of brave individuals famously changed the world.
This historical moment is not easy to understand, since we are in transition from a relatively stable world, dominated by a handful of major powers, to something we cannot yet define, since it is up to us to shape it. It seems clear, however, that there is a greater rapidity of change, accompanied  inevitably  by the passing of the leaders of the old order. This is particularly clear in the Middle East, where seven key figures have been struck down in the past six years: King Hussein of Jordan in February, 1999. King Hassan of Morocco in July of the same year. Syrian dictator Hafez al Assad in June of 2000. Yasser Arafat of the PLO in April, 2004. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia in May of last year. Ariel Sharon of Israel was incapacitated by a stroke in early January. And, according to Iranians I trust, Osama bin Laden finally departed this world in mid-December. The al Qaeda leader died of kidney failure and was buried in Iran, where he had spent most of his time since the destruction of al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The Iranians who reported this note that this year’s message in conjunction with the Muslim Haj came from his number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, for the first time.
This remarkable tempo of change is not likely to diminish, as old and/or sick men are in key positions in several countries: Israel’s Shimon Peres is 82. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is 82 (and his designated successor, Prince Sultan, is 81, and was recently operated for stomach cancer). Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, although probably in his sixties, is said to have serious liver cancer, and is not expected to survive the next year.
And, of course, the patient activities of the Grim Reaper are not the only source of revolutionary change in the region. Saddam was a relatively young man (mid-sixties) when he was toppled by Coalition forces; the deposed Taliban leaders were relatively young as well (Mullah Omar is barely 50); and the likes of Bashar Assad, the Iranian mullahs (Khamenei is probably in his early sixties), and even the legions of the Saudi royal family have to contend with mounting animus from the West, and mounting cries for freedom from their own people.
Much of the demographic component of rapid change comes from the enormous disparity between leaders and people. The wizened ayatollahs of Iran, like the gerontarchs of Saudi Arabia, seek to contain the passions of a population one or two generations younger, which is probably one reason why the mullahs turned to a youngster, the fanatical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to crush all potential opposition to the Islamic republic. Most Iranians, two thirds of whom are younger than 35, do not take kindly to the white beard and beturbaned tyrants who have banned Western music and just last week began speaking of segregating the sidewalks of the country by sex; males on one side, females on the other, even as they announced the execution of a woman who dared defend herself against a rapist.
In short, both demography and geopolitics make this an age of revolution, as President Bush seems to have understood. Rarely have there been so many opportunities for the advance of freedom, and rarely have the hard facts of life and death been so favorable to the spread of democratic revolution.
The architect of 9/11 and the creator of Palestinian terrorism are gone. The guiding lights of our terrorist enemies are sitting on cracking thrones, challenged by young men and women who look to us for support. Not just words, and, above all, not promises that the war against the terror masters will soon end with a premature abandonment of what was always a miserably limited battlefield. This should be our moment.
Faster. Please?
[my emphasis]
Ledeen’s optimistic take on changing demographics is at odds with the more circumspect and dire prognostications of Mark Steyn’s widely-cited recent article (which I discussed here), but a closer examination shows that the differences appear to be mostly a matter of the proverbial half full/half empty glass. That is, should the youthful “student” dissenters Ledeen has long-touted turn their sensibilities westward, their burgeoning numbers could go far toward crushing out the remnants of pan-Arab / Muslim theocratism that vie for prominence against the westernizing influences of a global ethos that it is becoming more and more difficult for tyrants and authoritarians to keep repressed, particularly in a world wherein controlling transnational communications requires increasingly authoritarian dictums and personal restrictions (which young people who don’t gravitate toward religious zealotry continue to fight against); on the other hand, should the growing birth rates and emigration trends of Muslims continue to be used as a demographic crutch by socialized western countries whose own birth rates have plummeted as a means to keep the labor force stocked—without a concerted effort toward western assimilation, pluralism, and a separation between religious and secular law—the European west could very well find itself under siege in the next few decades.
However, so long as European countries continue to try to appease growing Muslim populations (by, say, removing Piglet from the public square), I don’t hold out much hope in the short term.
Multiculturalism as a subset of nationalism is a perfectly valid way to celebrate the ingredients of a melting pot. But multiculturalism as a political and social end to itself is a dangerous and balkanizing failed social experiment which has objectively created warring mini-nation states within countries proper—and it is this physical contingency that could, in the long run, prove to be the locus for the 21st century battle grounds in what may very well turn into a clash of civilizations.
There’s a lottery ticket I wouldn’t mind redeeming. Dig up that fucker’s $50,000,000 bones for a nice fat check. I mean hell, he’s dead anyway, what’s it matter to him?
Of course his skull may have a slight urine twang to it when it gets turned into Uncle Sam.
How long until we hear “the war is over”?
And “where is the peace dividend”?
Minor addition: Castro’s pushing 80. He’s worth betting on in the dead pool.
Ledeen actually trusts some Iranians?
It’d be nice if he actually mentioned them by name.
Many many good Iranians out there.
Obviously no confirmation yet, but Ledeen’s made his bones on Iranian info. He was the first to break the attempt on Iranian Asshole Prez and he has long espoused that OBL, his son and others of his ilk have had free rein of Iran.
Yeah, I’m sure he wants to burn his contacts inside of Iran. Jeez, Carl, would you someday go out and see if you can buy a brain that would fit in the miniscule cranium you possess.
DovBear is not nominated for best humor blog this year, I guess because everyone forgot. But Protein Wisdom is not blowing everybody away yet! The JIB awards are at jpost.com.
Remarks on multiculturalism very apt.
The Dry Bones Blog has 36% of the 191 votes in the subcategory.
While it would be nice if Osama were dead, I have some very good sources in the military that are 99.9% certain that he is alive and still in Afganistan.
Gee, Carl, you want a journalist to out his sources? I guess you aren’t a member of the Plame brigade, eh?
Why not just ask him to shoot them in the head and remove the middle-man?
Gosh Carl, you’re stupid.
Leeden is right in stressing the changing demographics of the old leadership, and then imputes the change to the nations mentioned at large. It almost looks like he excluded Europe on purpose. So both he and Steyn could be right to a certain extent. Or both wrong.
The part of Ledeen’s piece that speaks the loudest to me isn’t the Osama part, it’s his sensing of the coming antithesis to last century’s various social experiments. And I’m more optimistic than he is. We just need a little vision, followed by a little leadership.
It takes a narrative…
yours/
peter.
Piglet. Now there’s a tasty animal.
Carl,
TomB understands the reality. You are stunningly, mindnumbingly, glow-in-the-dark stupid.
of course you realize now that you’ve put this in print OBL will show up on tape next week.
Jeez, Carl, would you someday go out and see if you can buy a brain that would fit in the miniscule cranium you possess.
Huh…
I had Carl with a huge Teddy K like melon with a dried pea brain rattling around in it.
who knew?
This is how I’d pictured Carl.
Really??
See, I had him more like this.
In all seriousness; dead, alive, why does it matter?
I confess – game, set and match to Alpuccino on that one.
Now see this was my image of Carl.
And everybody says we are a bunch of like-minded sheep!
That was savory Moe.
Can’t provide any pictures but I found Carl blogging elsewhere.
Carl  I understand Ahmadinejad is one of Ledeen’s sources. I believe they attended American University together back in the day…
LMFAO!
Call Kathy, that kid has obviously been tortured!
18 and he hasn’t perfected his grip yet. Jaysus!! That’s got to be Carl.
18? Nah, Carl’s admitted he’s pushing 60. So, my take on the poor bastard here…
tw: mind Hehe…
Is he that old? Not sure it’s cricket to make fun of someone of such advanced years.
But I’ve changed my image of Carl.
A montage for your perusal
RTO Trainer:
Because he’s an annoying bastard?
I’m sure those who have been obsessing on the “where’s Osama” question as “proof” that we’re losing will have to find a new standard. Sort of how they had to scramble after we found Saddam in his little hole.
(My guess: seize upon the “war is solely against Bin Laden exclusively” strawman and claim we can go home now or similar.)
As the theocratic weasel nest of the Middle East collapses in on itself with the passing of its senescent patriarchs, much as the Soviet gerontocracy self-destructed, look for the new meme on the left to be “See? See? It was gonna happen anyway!”
One point that has been missed is that after 9-11, when OBL decided things were getting too hot and he decided to decend into his own personal spider hole, he became dead.
Maybe not physiologically dead, but “Godfather: Fredo, you’re nothing to me. You’re dead.” Dead.
You know, dead. Not around anymore.
Just sayin’.
I think Wittgenstein is probably right about the – “see, it was inevitable, we had nothing to do with it” meme.
Heck, I might have been the only person in CJTF-180/76 that thought UBL was vulture-chow. I still stubbornly cling to that position.
What a nice site, been surfing on it for the whole night and day and i neva got bored for a single minute. Keep up your good work and all of the best in everything you do! :-)
quite enjoyed your work .