This latest comes from Karl Frisch (no relation, I don’t think), and wants me to know I’m being hoodwinked.  Bamboozled.  I didn’t land on Plymouth Rock, Plymouth Rock landed on me.  Etc.

Says the email,

Jeff,

I'm sure you've seen the spin surrounding the Harvard Institute of Politics poll that Republicans are passing around showing them supposedly winning the youth vote.

It just isn't true. Bellow you'll find a thoughtful response that looks a bit deeper at what is going on and smashes some myths in the process. Let me know if you have any questions.

Happy to connect you with Alexandra or folks on the ground leading youth vote efforts.

Best,
Karl Frisch
202-681-5275

What follows, then, is that “thoughtful response” from some budding young spin doctor, Alexandra Acker-Lyons (I know, isn’t the hyphen almost parodic at this point?), of the Youth Engagement Action Fund. Or, if you prefer, The YOU SHUT UP Branch of the politically superficial teen mod squad.

Remember when the media said young voters, dissatisfied with President Obama, would turn out in fewer numbers in 2012 than they had in 2008 and the opposite happened? Well, this week has been a bit like “deja vu all over again.”

If you’ve read the headlines, you probably think Millennials are abandoning Democrats in droves – that young voters are slated to fall in line behind Republicans in some sort of a unified middle-finger salute to President Obama and his progressive allies in Washington. And how do we know? Because a breathlessly reported Harvard Institute of Politics Poll of Millennials apparently tells us it’s so.

This would warrant the insane coverage it’s received – that an entire generation of voters had done a political about face after only two years – if it were true. After all, the media loves stories that seem to turn conventional wisdom on its head.

But, as is too often the case, this media narrative is far from accurate.

Millennial voters are not leaving Democrats in favor of Republicans. Here is what the Harvard poll actually says:

Millennial voters favor a Democratic congress 50%-43% and self-identify as Democrats by +11.
Only Millennials who said they were "definitely voting" in 2014 favored electing Republicans over Democrats, 51%-47%.
The poll’s findings do not support the media narrative that Millennials have become Republicans – they haven’t. Only likely youth voters favor Republicans. This is not without reason as likely youth voters are more likely to be white and conservative, which – as you might expect – does not reflect the youth voter overall.

Additionally, the polls sample seems to be statistically inconsistent with Millennials overall; 58% reported making more than $50,000 annually and 56% say their living quarters are “owned or being bought by you or someone in your household.”

So yes, Republicans do better with young voters when fewer young voters turn out. Thus far in 2014, it doesn’t look like that will be the case. According to an analysis of Millennial early voting by Project New America, some 200,000 more young voters have turned out in 2014 than at the same point in 2010.

2010 Election - 18-29 as of 11/2/2010

Registered as of 11/2/2010: 23,428,368
Ballot Cast by Wednesday Prior to Election: 406,785

2014 - Election - 18-29 as of 11/4/2014

Registered as off 10/30/2014: 32,185,568
Ballot Cast by Wednesday prior to election: 605,763

In fact, Millennials currently lean heavily Democratic. Millennials backed Barack Obama decisively in 2012 and they tend to opt for the Democrats over Republicans in congressional elections and in terms of partisan self-ID.

Overall, 56% of Millennials supported Obama in 2012 (including preferences among both voters and non-voters), compared to 29% for Romney.
Two-fifths of Millennials prefer a Democratic candidate for Congress compared to one-quarter who prefer a Republican.
In terms of party ID, 44% of Millennials identify with Democrats, 26% are Republicans, and 19% say that they do not identify with any political party.
Only 5% of Millennials call themselves Libertarians – a small bloc that split evenly in their presidential preferences in 2012 between Obama and Romney.
Analysis of the Millennials who voted for Obama in 2012 reveals their potential to tip the scales for Democrats in 2014 (IF THEY VOTE) as well as challenges to realize this potential.

74% of Obama voters prefer Democrats for Congress while 14% are undecided and only 12% prefer Republicans.
Above from Youth Engagement Fund’s poll with Project New America and Harstad Strategic Research. Additional issue-specific data available.

Additional National Polling
From a memo by Rob Flaherty and A’Shanti Gholar

Pew Research Center

“In short, not only are Millennials less likely than older generations to identify as Republicans, but even those who do express significantly less conservative values than do their elders.”
Fusion’s Massive Millennial Poll

“In the midterm elections, 47% of likely millennial voters say they’ll choose Democrats, 32% say they will vote for Republicans, and 21% are undecided”
“Only 15% of young black voters and 17% of young Hispanics are likely to support Republicans in the midterms”
Reason’s Millennial Poll

“71 percent favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour”
“69 percent say it is the government’s responsibility to guarantee everyone access to health care”
“68 percent say government should ensure everyone makes a living wage”
“66 percent say raising taxes on the wealthy would help the economy”
“63 percent say spending more on job training would help the economy”
“58 percent say the government should spend more on assistance to the poor even it means higher taxes”
“57 percent favor spending more money on infrastructure”
“54 percent want government to guarantee everyone a college education”
ABC News/Washington Post (Among ages 18-39)

43% trust Democrats to do a better job handling the main problems our country faces, compared to 33%who think that of the GOP
State Races

COLORADO: Mark Udall Led Cory Gardner 59% – 22% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A Public Policy Polling Poll. [Public Policy Polling, 10/21/14]
GEORGIA: Michelle Nunn Led David Perdue 50% – 27% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A CBS/NYT/YouGov Poll. [CBS/NYT/YouGov, 10/23/14]
IOWA: Bruce Braley Led Joni Ernst 49% – 37% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A CBS/NYT Poll . [CBS/NYT poll,10/23/14]
KENTUCKY: Alison Lundergan Grimes Led Mitch McConnell 46% – 38% Among Voters Age 18 – 34, According To A Western Kentucky University Poll. [WKU Social Research Center, 10/20/14]
LOUISIANA: Mary Landrieu Led Bill Cassidy 63% – 28% Among Voters 18 – 29 In A Hypothetical Runoff, According To A YouGov Poll. [CBS/NYT/YouGov 10/23/14]
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen Led Scott Brown 55% – 31% Among Voters Age 18 – 39, According To A Survey USA Poll. [Survey USA, 10/9/14]
NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagan Led Thom Tillis 61% – 27% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A Public Policy Polling Poll. [Public Policy Polling, 10/20/14]

— None of which I care to look into the veracity of, because frankly, it’s too much work to suss out how either side is playing with numbers, and I’m tired. So instead I opted to respond thematically:

Dear Karl --

Thanks for looking out for me. I know how apt the media is to lie and spin for Republicans, just as I've long known that Harvard has been in the tank for people like, eg., Ronald Reagan.

Still, I'm not quite sure I get the point of the email or the response to the Harvard study. Do you mean to say that there are still millennials who are prepared to vote for their descent into subject-hood rather than pursue a course correction and embrace a liberty agenda of the kind that displaces an imperial Executive and returns to constitutionalism and equal protection before a stable rule of law?

Wow.

Guess we need better schools.

Tell you what: I'll apply for a grant and we'll go from there. It's the least I can do.

Regards,
Jeff

Smarm is so fitting sometimes, isn’t it?