If the numbers are to be believed, 20% of Republicans are so put off by the nastiness of the GOP primary and the dubious caliber of the potential nominees that — when the choice of GOP presidential candidate is coupled with strong indicators of an economic recovery (like, for instance, cooked employment numbers and, well, whatever it is they’re seeing that we aren’t) — these disenchanted Republicans are leaning toward voting for Obama, who they believe has succeeded expectations.
— Which begs the question: if 20% of Republicans are leaning toward voting for a Marxist socialist who uses a politicized Justice Department and an vast, faceless administrative state to molest and constrain the individual, then in what way do these people come to count as Republicans in the first place? Or is the case that the Republican/conservative divide has simply highlighted the fact that potentially a full 20% of the GOP is comprised of big government statists / foreign policy isolationists who are farther to the left than even, say, Mitt Romney?
Now, for the record, I don’t believe these poll numbers. And I’m forever fascinated by the argument that independents and moderates would be so put off by GOP candidate bickering that they’ll embrace the candidate and an administration who has relentlessly accused opponents of racism, xenophobia, homophobia, gluttony, selfishness, Wall Street cronyism, violence (and violent extremism, oftentimes carefully hidden in talk about the Constitution and liberty), a desire to see old people thrown off embankments, to see autistic kids go untreated, to see air and water polluted, to harm women, to care only about the rich, to starve the poor, and on and on and on and on.
That seems to me doubtful. And surreal.
Still, if this is indeed the case — and it’s true that 20% of Republicans are thinking about backing Barack Obama — than all I can say is this country is hardly worth saving anymore — which means that those of us who still care about liberty, private property, individual autonomy, and a stable rule of law, are going to have to begin looking elsewhere for accommodations, whether it’s in a new party that will press our message, or else in some locale where we can continue as the last free peoples on earth.
Like maybe one of them floating libertarian barge islands or some such.
Which might be cool. It’s been quite some time since I was able to smoke a joint without worry.
(h/t JHo)
I’m calling BS on that poll.
I hope all are well, and look forward to seeing Abe Froman return.
Looking at the crosstabs, it’s not just 20% of Republicans who’d vote for Obama over Romney or Santorum — it’s 20% of those who describe themselves as “Very Conservative.” Among those who call themselves “Conservative,” the Obama support goes to 30%.
I’m thinking this Wenzel guy got punked.
You ever notice how the guys always telling us that conservatives can’t win over moderates and independents are the same guys who fail to win over moderates and independents? Despite running as pragmatic, independent-minded middle-of-the-roaders no less?
Why, it’s almost like they’re looking to deflect blame onto others for their own shortcomings or something.
That’s right – you’re not from Texas
Texas wants you anyway
–Lyle Lovett
I’d be willing to give “The Dependent Blue Doughnut of Coastal Progressivism” Cleveland in exchange for Florida and a state to be named later.
Right on man! Like I knoooooow like Obama man like smoooked fierce bud dud. That’s why I, like a lot of my bros back at the house are like so going to like vote for him man… like really. Did you know you could smoke fifty joints a day and never, ever get cancer? At all? Ever? Shit is like kryptonite to cancer man. Ron Paul!
That poll is 34% dem, 35% rep, 32% ind (rounded to nearest whole), which strikes me as a blatantly arbitrary assumption.
Also, we don’t know if we’re dealing with adults, voters, or likely voters. Of course at this stage, anybody telling you they’re polling likely voters is a liar, so it’s probably adults.
The interesting number is the philosophical crosstab: 49% identify as conservative, 31% as liberal/progressive, a 3 to 2 advantage.
It would have been interesting to see party ID and political philosophy cross-tabbed. I’d like to know how many self-identified Republicans self identified as liberal or progressive. I’m going to guess 10 to 15%.
I’d also love to know how self-identified independents identified their political philosophy.
They never give you the really good stuff.
Forgot to add, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the support for Obama from Republicans is the result of Republican respondents frustrated that their preferred candidate isn’t doing well in the GOP primary (“I’ll vote for Obama before I vote for that tool.”)
Although the poll is most likely a load of BS, I actually see one angle from which it could actually be accurate, and in the spirit of full disclosure, I’m not sure I don’t belong in that “1 in 5” number.
Back when it appeared that the likely matchup in the 2008 presidential election would be between McCain and Hillary Clinton, Ann Coulter made the statement that between the two, she’d vote for Clinton. Her reasoning was that, for example, if Hillary got behind a huge, onerous, and socialistic healthcare reform program, the Republicans in Congress would vehemently oppose it. If McCain, on the other hand, pushed the identical plan, Congressional Republicans would support it down to the man.
I can see the same correlation between Obama and Romney. As you’ve stated, Jeff, the choice between Democrat and Establishment Republican leadership is strictly within the speed we go down the same road to oblivion. It could be that one out of five Republican voters are smart enough to figure out that Obama is easier to fight (with the current crop of Establishment Congressmen) than Romney would be, and the potential danger of a second Obama term could be effectively mitigated through the election of a strong conservative group in Congress.
I can’t in good conscience support Obama (although I may make good on my threat to stay home rather than vote for Romney), but the “anyone but Obama” sentiment was what the GOP was counting on four years ago, and we all know how that worked out.
I guess what I’m saying is that I’d almost rather see us continue for four more years to wage total war against radical, militant socialism than to sign a peace treaty with “just a touch of socialism” that will continue to grow.
That doesn’t make you one of the 1 in 5, Jamie, it makes one of the people who will not vote for Romney.
Not voting for Romney is not the same as voting for Obama, heated discussions here and elsewhere to the contrary.
As a general rule of thumb, you can get about 20% of any given population to agree to anything.
Doesn’t this fall into the “15% of respondents think Elvis is still alive” category?