OK, perhaps one more wacky idea for St. Germain. Across cultures and times, le Comte steps into a new role as Abdullah, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. This chart shows the price of oil since 1970 and two surrogates for the health of the American economy, US deficit as % of GDP and unemployment rate. Prior to the formation of OPEC in 1973 the US had roughly kept the price of oil constant since the end of WW2. At the formation of OPEC, oil prices step up sharply and then run steady until the Iranian Revolution, where we again have a sharp step up, followed by a very slow downward trend until 1986. Ronald Reagan and Fahd (Casey and that Playboy Prince guy) cut a deal to fight the godless communists, and until the death of the Fahd heir in 1999 the price of oil is constant. With one exception, that little impulse in 1991. Impulse in the systems analysis sense; a short duration, sharp up and down input signal you send into an arbitrary system to see how it responds. In this case the proximate cause of the impulse was a quick, perceived at the time successful Gulf War 1. And the response is the Bush the Elder Recession (in MBM framing).

By 1993 even someone like Abdullah with only a madrasas education could see from the data that to control that oil price was to yank the US economy around by a chain.

Fahd grows to control the richest family in the world, but also grows infirm. In 1995 his most trusted advisor, his half-brother, his friend, Abdullah, is appointed Regent, solely to help take some of the load off of the great leader until Mohammed calls Fahd to Paradise. Then Fahd’s heir, successor, and son can assume his duties, and Abdullah will graciously recede into serving the new King. That guy dies of a heart attack while in Saudi Arabia’s best hospital for something else. King Fahd doesn’t really say much. Ever again really. He is too grief-stricken to carry out his duties, and Abdullah, oh so charitably, carries more and more of the load for the greatest patriarch any family has ever had.

From that point in 1999 the price of oil begins a steady climb until 2000, triggering the First Bush the Younger recession (again, in MBM framing). Then begins a nice soothing decline, everything shiny until those dastardly, really much more radical than Abdullah’s Wahabbism, 15 of 19-Saudi terrorists jihadis wayward religion-of-peacers attack. The US economy is delivered a tremendous blow and continues the recessionary trend until roughly the start of Gulf War 2.

From then on, however, things do not go quite as planned for our intrepid adventurer. Even a silly cowboy (with a Harvard MBA and an extensive family history in the oil business) might be able read this chart as well as any mullah, and might hold that mullah’s hand and sit them down to discuss things openly. And then that cowboy might start to bring democracy, bring modernity to Abdullah’s carefully crafted home turf, where the barren wastes of the 7th century are the ideal. The conflict is open, and Abdullah spasms the price of oil upward throughout the entire Bush presidency. Despite the best efforts of the Bush Administration, the Fed, and the American people to recover after 9/11, eventually the input signal becomes too overwhelming to compensate for, and the Second Bush the Younger recession begins (MBM yada yada). Of course just before the 2008 election someone or some group, very wealthy, nearly induced a complete US financial system collapse in the form of a liquidity attack. In fact it came so close to succeeding that even a Marxist Hungarian currency speculator might jump on the bandwagon.

Well, despite the sky high oil prices, induced bank runs, and external economic warfare, Obama is elected. Here’s a man who understands oil and the world economy, who understands America’s rightful place in the world (he saw it right under Abdullah’s shoes). This is a man Abdullah can work with, and the price of oil drops like a stone. Everything is going swimmingly, America is committing financial suicide, until those damn TEA partiers start making rational noises. Time to start cranking those prices up again. Our chart stops in July 2010, but we know what happens next: the TEA partiers win, and in response the price of oil really spikes up, nipping any recovery in the bud.

From all this, you might think that St. Germain was a ruthless killer who really didn’t like us and wanted us out of the land of the Two Holy Mosques. You might think that he killed Fahd’s heir. That he is using oil pricing to destroy us. That he was behind the liquidity attack. That he funded and controls Al Qaeda. That is he behind the Arab Spring, controlling a Brotherhood working through the Middle East to bring modernity and democracy Islam to all. The fires of revolution rage thoughout the Middle East, this most conservative ruler must surely be threatened. It’s not like Abdullah was so well prepared that he could completely stifle any dissent within his own kingdom and have enough capacity left over to lend security forces to allied kingdoms. Heck he wasn’t even around all year, he was out of sight with back surgery.

Or you might think, crazy conspiracy mongering. That chart? ….. Hey, I heard those Republicans are using corporate jets to drop frozen billionare shit on autistic kids.