Search






Jeff's Amazon.com Wish List

Archive Calendar

November 2024
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930  

Archives

QE 2, global inflation, and the commodities revolution?

Food for thought. So to speak.

(h/t sdferr, geoffb, and Rush Limbaugh)

48 Replies to “QE 2, global inflation, and the commodities revolution?”

  1. proudvastrightwingconspirator says:

    Not only are we driving global food inflation with our reckless fiscal & monetary policies, we are BURNING 40% of our corn crop as transportation fuel further exacerbating the price of corn & livestock which use corn as a primary feedstock.

    Recall the Mexican “tortilla riots” in 2007-2008, the last time that corn prices spiked? Be prepared for much worse ahead.

    We are blamed in the third world for:
    – supporting tyrants
    – consuming an out-sized % of global resources
    – reckless fiscal policies that brought on a worldwide finc’l panic
    – refusing to develop our own domestic energy sources
    – wasting precious food resources food(corn) when it’s obvious that ethanol is grossly inefficient, requires so much energy and water to produce that it’s a net-negative from any real analysis, drives all grain prices higher.

    This is folly of the highest order.

  2. cranky-d says:

    Can we sell an end to this insane biofuel crap by framing it as humanitarian? People are going to starve because of this, and starving people tend to create new governments that are very unlikely to be liberty-oriented. I’m not sure we can, because people may not realize that the corn grown for food and the corn grown for biofuel is not fungible. The varieties used for fuel are often not approved for consumption.

  3. proudvastrightwingconspirator says:

    The varieties used for fuel are the same varieties used in animal feed, which represents over 90% of the corn crop.
    “Sweet corn” (for human consumption)is a very small % of the overall crop.

  4. Jeff G. says:

    Taco Bell approves it.

  5. cranky-d says:

    Are you sure, PVRWC? Maybe I wasn’t paying proper attention during the show I watched about corn (Modern Marvels most likely), but I remember differently. However, I will defer to you on it.

  6. cranky-d says:

    Either way, I’m not sure if we’re still heading for the cliff or if we’ve already gone over it.

  7. geoffb says:

    Some other food and an example of why markets are better and smarter than politicos.

    However, the reason that I’m skeptical about the climate doom scenarios has nothing to do with the tendency of climate change prediction to lapse into unfalsifiable propositions where everything that happens or can happen is considered evidence that a hypothesis is true — or even with the propensity of the climate ‘fixes’ they propose to collapse into expensive heaps of incompetence and fraud.

    It doesn’t even have to do with the ugly links between the climate change movement and the European farm lobby, a group whose policies of protection and subsidy in the name of the environment some think kill more innocent people in the developing world every year than most diseases. Ethanol here, the Common Agricultural Policy in Europe, protectionism everywhere and always in cahoots with the greens: nothing here to think about or investigate, friends. Just good folks doing good things.

    No, I’m skeptical of these prophecies because of something else: meat. Meat in Charleston, South Carolina in particular, where someone who seems to have every qualification to be a mad scientist is trying to grow meat in a lab.

  8. sdferr says:

    My folks moved to Germany for a time and mom’s addiction to sweetcorn brought her face to face with the German view that corn is pigfood unfit for human consumption. Made me laugh, it did.

  9. JHoward says:

    Not only are we driving global food inflation with our reckless fiscal & monetary policies, we are BURNING 40% of our corn crop as transportation fuel further exacerbating the price of corn & livestock which use corn as a primary feedstock.

    Yup: Piles of nested positive feedback loops allowed and even required by the present monetary system. Next up, a row with China, who’s government hates it some Americans too and isn’t timid about this message around town.

    The man who said governments such as ours needed principled citizen-voter-representatives was right. And we did not heed.

  10. Old Texas Turkey says:

    The guys over at zero hedge had insight on how repackaging was hiding food inflation in the US. Smaller packages for the same price as the previously bigger package.

    That and the gradual removal of unit equivalence prices on grocery store shelves helps mask the problem.

    Fortunately for some of us statistics geeks, we have Crude Oil as a proxy.

  11. Old Texas Turkey says:

    Linky for re-package story above

  12. Spiny Norman says:

    sdferr,

    …the German view that corn is pigfood unfit for human consumption.

    Or the French view that any sort of grain or produce grown in America is “unfit for human consumption”. And that does not include the stuff they call “frankenfood”.

    Nevermind that every grapevine in France is grown on a blight-resistant rootstock that was developed in Texas…

  13. cranky-d says:

    Pistachios have taken a huge leap in price. They used to be Round $13 for a 4lb bag, and now they are $15 for a 3lb bag. I may have to give them up.

    This might be what pushes me over the edge.

  14. sdferr says:

    If there is a suggestion that food prices pressures could be a trigger to further political revolt in the developing world (a reasonable hypothesis), there are other sorts of pressures walking right along beside them. Gordon Chang thinks he sees one here.

  15. Pablo says:

    Pistachios have taken a huge leap in price. They used to be Round $13 for a 4lb bag, and now they are $15 for a 3lb bag. I may have to give them up.

    Have you ever tried Delta Smelt?

  16. Pablo says:

    In other news, the health care ruling in the 26 state suit is due to be released any minute. Here goes nuttin!

  17. sdferr says:

    Goddamn phylloxera.

  18. cranky-d says:

    Have you ever tried Delta Smelt?

    If that was a joke, Pablo, I didn’t get it. Sorry.

  19. Spiny Norman says:

    OTT,

    …how repackaging was hiding food inflation in the US. Smaller packages for the same price as the previously bigger package.

    Health Nazis activists have been complaining about “jumbo-sized” prepared food packaging (especially snack foods) for years, so now they’re getting their wish.

    That and the gradual removal of unit equivalence prices on grocery store shelves helps mask the problem.

    I believe that here in the glorious Peoples’ Republic of California, “per unit equivalence” notices on store shelves is mandatory. I haven’t seen any reduction of it, at any rate.

  20. JHoward says:

    What’s the average food item run these days, whether it be a package of over-processed crap or a lb of the real stuff, grown offshore, naturally?

    I’m seeing four or five bucks. Four Federal Reserve Notes for a bag of potatoes. Four for a gallon of milk, four for a loaf of good bread, even a bag of salted, deep-fried air and paste with the name Ruffles on it runs $4. What’s a twelve of carbonated sugar water run, about five bucks? A lb of fish averages eight bucks?

    Speaking of addictions, the problem with our heroin monetary policy is that you cannot kick it without intense pain. After the denial ends, of course, which as Gingrich notes, we’re not there yet.

    Yes, no wonder they hate us indeed. This time seriously.

  21. bh says:

    Sorta but not entirely off topic: the Nymex/Brent spread is closing. Towards the Brent price.

    Cushing is topped off with oil. Yet it’s still up another $2.5 today.

  22. Pablo says:

    If that was a joke, Pablo, I didn’t get it. Sorry.

    Lots of pistachios come from Cali’s Central Valley. Or, they used to before Unca Sam shut the water off to save the poor little fishy.

  23. cranky-d says:

    Thank you, that explains it. I think the ones Costo sells come from California, or at least did before the government saved the tiny fishes.

  24. cranky-d says:

    I’m not feeling well. I’m going to blame that for being so slow on the uptake.

    When I feel better again, I’ll have to find some other reason.

  25. bh says:

    Heh, I didn’t get it either.

    Can always blame coffee deficiency. Speaking of which… brb.

  26. Old Texas Turkey says:

    bh,

    Wanna bet that someone was on the wrong side off the Brent/WTI spread and was squeezed?

    Massive hedge fund/bank fund/oil major trading desk loss story in 3…2..

  27. Pablo says:

    In other news, the health care ruling in the 26 state suit is due to be released any minute. Here goes nuttin!

    OK, this court’s pissing me off. I hope that’s short term.

  28. dicentra says:

    If you didn’t get the Delta Smelt ref, it’s because you don’t listen to Hewitt. He has hammered on the pump shutoff for quite some time now, including interviewing one of the airhead activists who pushed for the pumps to be shut off.

    He asked her WTF and she answered that this is a huge passion of hers, because that’s enough to justify throwing 30,000 people out of work and taking a huge chunk out of the world food supply.

    “We can always import from Chile,” they say.

    Right. Because Chile just acquired the exact same acreage of arable land that was destroyed by the pump shutoff.

    Mortally dangerous imbeciles, all.

  29. proudvastrightwingconspirator says:

    Here’s the Wikipedia on US corn end uses.
    Sweet corn, the last category, is a very small 3% of total crop:

    The breakdown of usage of the 12.1 billion bushel 2008 U.S. corn crop was as follows, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report by the USDA.[44]

    * 5.25 billion bu. – Livestock feed
    * 3.65 billion bu. – Ethanol production
    * 1.85 billion bu. – Exports
    * 943 million bu. – Production of Starch, Corn Oil, Sweeteners (HFCS,etc.)
    * 327 million bu. – Human consumption – grits, corn flower, corn meal, beverage alcohol

  30. Pablo says:

    Ruling in. Mandate unconstitutional! And not severable. The entire act must be declared void!!

    W00t!

  31. proudvastrightwingconspirator says:

    Note that the 2008 % of the corn crop converted to ethanol was only 30%.
    For 2010, it was 40% and under Congressional edict, it will rise to 50% by 2011.

    Just for fun, try Googling: “The effects of ethanol fuel on outboard engines” and you’ll read literally hundreds of articles about how the high water content of E-85 is fouling or ruining thousands of single stroke engines, creating HUGE business for marina operators and their engine repair shops.

    Just another ‘unintended consequence’….

  32. JD says:

    Now that is good news, Pablo. Very good.

  33. cranky-d says:

    Once Hewitt took all his output to a pay basis, I stopped listening to him. I cannot stand listening through commercials, nor listening through and endless sea of idiot callers.

  34. sdferr says:

    Wow. Beyond the bare headline have you got a story link yet Pablo?

  35. geoffb says:

    “single stroke engines”???
    Single cylinder? Two stroke and four stroke I know of.

  36. sdferr says:

    Drudge’s link to blurb it, little detail though.

  37. Pablo says:

    Also good news: 44 GOP Senators Sponsor Health Care Repeal Bill

    44 right out of the gate. Obamacare. A bill so nice, let’s kill it twice.

  38. Bob Reed says:

    This is certainly a result of QE2, whether directly or indirectly by fueling commodity purchases as a hedge against inflation.

    Meanwhile, there are some globalists who are rejoicing because the increased cost of production that will have to result in the developing nations becuase of the neccesary increase in wages to offset these increases will result in an increase in the competitiveness of US manufacturing/production.

    While completely discounting the increased costs here at home, of course. It’s the same flawd static analysis of what is really a dynamic system. They’re solving equations with data that exceeds the assumptions of those same model’s derivation; when they need to be solving the underlying differential equations with entirely new boundry conditions and constituent relationships.

    Sorry for the geeky mathematical metaphor :)

    Oh, and they also seem to be discounting the effects of the ensuing revolutions on their market models as well.

    /geek

  39. Pablo says:

    Wow. Beyond the bare headline have you got a story link yet Pablo?

    Not much breakdown on the ‘tubes yet, but you’ve gotta love the money quote in the ruling, which I heard from the lovely Megyn Kelly. If that Scribd doc would load, I’d copy it, but “…the mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire act must be declared void…” is what I’m getting out of search results.

  40. bh says:

    We have to pass it to find out… that we forgot to add the standard severability clause.

    Awesome. Just awesome.

  41. dicentra says:

    WHATEVER YOU DO DON’T STOCK UP ON FOODSTUFFS WHILE YOU CAN STILL AFFORD THEM BECAUSE THAT’S CRAZY WINGER PARANOIA DONTCHA KNOW!

  42. Swen says:

    Re Comments #1-5, 30 & 32: It doesn’t much matter what kind of corn (or other crop) you’re growing, it takes land, water, and fertilizer. Land, water, and fertilizer used to grow corn or some other crop to make ethanol is land, water, and fertilizer that can’t be used to grow people food and livestock feed. Water is in short supply and likely to get even shorter (read up on the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer, it’s scary), most of the best cropland is now under the plow so any additional land put under the plow would likely be agriculturally suboptimal, besides which the land that’s not under the plow is what we call “wildlife habitat”. The only good news here is that Washington seems able to produce an unlimited supply of fertilizer.

    Bottom line, growing crops of any kind to make motor fuel of any kind is a bad, Bad, BAD idea. Which explains why the government subsidizes it….

  43. Swen says:

    @ #43: I just bought another 100# of pinto beans, so I won’t run out of food, or gas!:)

  44. geoffb says:

    Spengler on food and the ME.

  45. Pablo says:

    We have to pass it to find out… that we forgot to add the standard severability clause.

    Outstanding, bh. I am so stealing that.

  46. Yackums says:

    We have to pass it to find out… that we forgot to add the standard severability clause.

    This is what will come to be known as “the D’oh! heard ’round the world.”

Comments are closed.