Hope and change? Or change and hope?
the overriding mood in Washington Sunday remained a cautious optimism that the secular forces visibly leading the protests over the last six days would be central to any new leadership, and that the Brotherhood – which many observers say has learned to accept ordinary political life – would be only part of the picture.
“Egypt is not Iran. [The Muslim Brotherhood] don’t have a charismatic leader and they’re not playing a dominant role in the opposition,” former New Hampshire Republican Sen. Judd Gregg, who focused on American aid to Egypt during his time in Congress, told POLITICO.
“This is a country that is full of sophisticated, well-educated people,” he said, saying he was hopeful that any new Egyptian government – and its military — would realize that for economic and political reasons, “it’s in their interest” to maintain a close alliance with the United States.
Yet some American and Israeli conservatives Sunday bluntly raised the likelihood that the largest Arab state would soon be run by anti-American Islamists. Barry Rubin, a political scientist at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, pointed out that large majorities of Egyptians say they favor the harsh legal system backed by Islamists, and predicted that if Mubarak falls, “the Brotherhood will emerge as the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country.”
The Brotherhood in power, he predicted, would mean “renewed warfare [with Israel], overwhelming anti-Americanism, efforts to spread revolution to other moderate states, a potential alignment with Iran and Syria (though that might not happen), incredible damage to Western interests. In short – a real disaster.”
“What shocks me is that Western media and experts seem so carried away by this [protest] movement that they are only considering a best-case outcome,” he said.
Well, that makes sense, doesn’t it?
I mean, who isn’t for freedom!
I think the people what are only considering a best-case outcome are remarkably few really. I think the positive tenor derives from the simple fact that a dictator’s been deposed. And that’s an inherently hopeful thing to have happen.
What can go south really fast in that part of the world.
But still… yay freedom!
actually we’re still waiting on the deposing but it’s imminent hopefully
Whether it happens all by itself before our silly little president man and his whore secretary of state get on the stick and throw Hosni under the bus is anyone’s guess.
Yea, Egypt is full of sophisticated, well educated folks who are all for Sharia. I mean, only 67% support a trans-national Islamic Caliphate.
Nothing says sophistication like genital mutilation and burkas.
Never in the history of the world has a revolution ever replaced one dictator with another.
Except for every time since 1776.
The Muslim Brotherhood is fine if you think a Egyptian Caliphanite under Sharia law is fine. But Mumbarak has lost confidence of the people.
Are we going to send in troops to back Mumbarak? I think not. There are a lot of players in Egypt, the Army, other political parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood. This is a time for some back room realpolitik and trying to defuse a dangerous situation.
Carin, what is sobering about FGM is if it is 97% of the population (I am not sure it is that high, but for arguement lets assume it is), Muslims make up around 90% of the population in Egypt. FGM in Egypt has been around from Pharonic times. The thought is a woman won’t cheat if you make sex not fun.
And it is grandmothers and mothers who are its chief proponents. If it is good enough for them…
The thought is a woman won’t cheat if you make sex not fun.
No wonder they so unhappy.
Me thinks I could bring the ME peace if we could rid it of FGM.
It’s never the first revolution. It’s the second revolution that screws the pooch.
First revolutions are all about Hope and Change. They almost always end up with some kind of unworkable. all-inclusive, pie in the sky parliament, with some kind of governing coalition centered around some weak-susan figurehead and including some notoriously radical and violent nationalistic faction who’s spent years infiltrating the power institutions of the country. These are the guys who bide their time, sit in coalition and pretend to get along with the new gov’t until suddenly…a crisis (economic, manufactured or otherwise) and, if history is any guide our State Dept will back the wrong, corrupt horse. Then WHAMMO!, new elections, exiled radical leader returns, weak susan and friends are purged and, in this case, the Muslim Brotherhood tears down the pyramids and kills all the Copts.
2 years, tops, before Gaza is annexed.
It is written. I have seen it. It would be a very good time to ship a couple more carrier groups to the Med.
I must depart from you friends on this issue.
Playing long ball.
The best, absolute best, thing that could happen here, that would spell the fastest demise of Islamic fundamentalism, would be for the MB to take control of Egypt and institute sharia.
Let these fuck-knuckles try to make the trains run on time, using the Koran as the recipe book.
Nothing like airing the mouldy ideas of political Islam to sunlight. They are, by nature, unstable systems that will collapse in of themselves. They will set about murdering each other. We need to ring fence the motherfuckers and wait for the outcome. Bonus is let the Palestinians take out the Hashemites in Jordan. Talk about pressure valve off Israel.
Downside is it will take 20 – 30 years (with the usual cooperation of failshit western countries trying to make a buck off the deal – I am looking at you France, Germany and Russia) and probably cost about 10 – 30 million lives. Iran is about done in less than 10 and they are a good case study. What can I say, life is still short, brutish and dark.
We may get offshore and on shore drilling and shale gas out of the deal.
OTT: it’s what can be done in the 30 years that concerns us. Nukes are unforgiving.
Peter Feaver with one of those “where you begin will pin you to your end” sort of analyses of Obama’s Middle Eastern world view.
Jeff – when it comes to nukes, we are third on the list, after Shites and Israel. I’ll bet that it never comes to that, its their nature to turn on themselves. The crime families will start whacking each other off first, in the internal power struggles, then turn on the Coptics.
Plenty of trip wire, is what I’m saying.
Most anything else, keeps the loons legitimate in the eyes of the Arab Street and prolongs the demise.
I need to charge the Good Dr. Hansen royalties. (My bold)
It’s always hard, politics. Anyhow, who would wish the new kid should have to smash his finger, rather than just go ahead and hit the nail on the head his whole damn life, never to know the pain of blood building under his fingernail?
Not so long ago, the President of the United States said “either you stand with us or you stand with the terrorist jihadis. If you stand with the jihadis we will treat with you as we treat with them.”
That did have a kind of clarity now lost.
I’m kinda in line with Israeli pundits on this one.
It’s like the world is being run by children.
h/t HotAir.
Oh, the link is:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-israel-usa-idUSTRE70U53720110131
Sorry, can’t get it to work, you’ll have to cut and paste…
Well, because political certainty is more important than, you know, freedom or somesuch. Can’t let that get in the way of a good iron fist.
That Caliphatus eventuality though unlikely, would force even 44 into a coalition to militarily internationalize the Suez. Nothing quite like oil to hawk up the world yannow.