Me: I understand you are calling 99 House races as “in play” this year.
The August Voice of the New York Times: Yes, comprehensive coverage, real roll-up-your-sleeves old fashioned journalism.
Me: 99 races in play, sounds like a Republican take-over is certain.
The August Voice of the New York Times: Don’t say that! I mean, err, no, not really. In our scrupulously objective anaylsis of those races we see 47 leaning Dem, 33 tossup, and 19 leaning Republican.
Me: Really? Of the 99 races in play, 47 are leaning Dem?
TAVOTNYT: Absolutely.
Me: Nate Silver works for you now, right? Stats wiz-kid of the Obama Ascendency? What does he think?
TAVOTNYT: Nate Silver? Did he go to school with Pinch?
Me: I don’t know. Anyway, 47 seats leaning Dem? Let’s look at some of those races.
TAVOTNYT: Are these details really necessary? One must keep the big picture in mind, a 30 thousand foot perspective as Father used to say.
Me: Here’s Georgia 8. Nate has that as a 62% chance of a Republican pick-up, yet you have it leaning Dem?
TAVOTNYT: We must be using different methodologies.
Me: Interesting. How about Arizona 1? You say Leaning Dem, Silver says a 63% chance of a Republican pick-up. Is the The Tea Party surge perhaps catching you by surprise?
TAVOTNYT: Are you talking about those Tea Bag Party people? Do you know one we could interview?
Me: Wow. I see you call Alabama 2 Leaning Dem, yet Nate has that as a 74% chance of a Republican pick-up.
The August Voice of the New York Times:
The August Voice of the New York Times:
The August Voice of the New York Times: Get out of my coccoon.
“I AM A MAN!!!” ;-)
They’re wishcasting results. Based on their exhaustive wish-tistical database. Which they developed interviewed each other, and the folks that patronize Manhattan coffe-houses. The ones that sponsor Wednesday night poetry readings and performance are Fridays…
In other words, a diverse sample indeed.
But the righties are guilty of the epistemic closure.
Nice job, motionview.
I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Rudy. Where the Tea Partiers are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.
Racists. Just in case. Libel too.
Thanks cranky, & Jeff for the guest post.
To be fair, I think that now would be an excellent time to put out a nice balanced piece reminding everyone that Premier Stalin’s much ballyhooed “Famine in the Ukraine” (As if!) is just another right wing nut myth.
I think that The Smoldering Ghost of Walter Duranty can shake off the coals and set to putting it down on paper or perhaps something slightly less flammable.
Is it flammable or Inflammable?
I can never remember, and Walter’s no help, all he does is wail about the demons “tearing his stomach out over and over and over”, apparently with a Pulitzer trophy, as some sort of ironic pennance for being a useful idiot.
Neunundneunzig Kongressmänner
umstellen zu R von D
Machen Köpfe explodieren
durch der MSNBC
(Only way I could think to get it to rhyme.)
They mean the same thing. Innit jacked up?
[…] his analysis this year. Nate sees a 75% likelihood of a Republican take-over of the House. When we last checked in, we pointed out a few discrepancies between the NY Times expected result in some races versus […]