Which, that’s a good thing. Byron York:
Republicans don’t believe it, or at least the insiders involved in the midterm effort don’t believe it. As they see it, they’re in a good position to pick up the 39 seats needed to win control of the House, but polls showing a huge GOP lead are simply wrong. “I’m assuming that Cook and Rothenberg and Rove and the others have got different indications from what we’ve got,” says one member of the House GOP election team. “I don’t want to overestimate what’s out there.”
“I think it’s about even,” says a strategist involved in the GOP effort. “That is a remarkable place to be, given where we were in the ’08 election. But it’s about even.”
The landslide talk was based on two high-profile polls. One, from Gallup, showed Republicans with an unprecedented 10-point lead in the so-called “generic ballot” question — whether voters will choose the Democratic or Republican candidate in their congressional election. The other poll, from the Washington Post and ABC News, showed the GOP with a 13-point lead.
There are problems with both polls. First, Gallup’s surveys have been pretty uneven this election season. Indeed, Gallup has since released a new poll showing the generic ballot question dead even, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in its finding of a 10-point GOP lead.
As for the Post poll, Republican insiders say it (uncharacteristically) skews things toward the GOP. The 13-point margin is among people judged by the Post to be most likely to vote this November. Among all registered voters, Republicans have a thin two-point lead in the same poll.
Which count is more accurate? Republicans usually score higher with likely voters. But the election is still more than seven weeks away. Counting only likely voters at this point “screens out Democratic groups that you know are going to be there at the end,” says the GOP consultant. “There are unions and African-Americans who typically get their information late, from leadership or the pulpit.”
In other words, those reliable Democrats will become likely voters soon enough. Former Republican Rep. Vin Weber, a veteran of many campaigns, predicts Democrats “are going to have some success in bringing their troops home and rousing their base over the next few weeks,” although Weber predicts Republicans will ultimately win control of the House.
As they look at the polls, some Republicans remember the painful near-death experience of 1998. In that year of scandal and partisan warfare, then-Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted the GOP would pick up as many as 40 seats in midterm voting. That’s what some of the likely-voter surveys seemed to indicate. But when election day came around, the GOP lost five seats, clinging to power by the barest of margins. A few days later, Gingrich, the architect of the party’s smashing 1994 victory, resigned.
Now, the man who would most likely be speaker if the GOP wins, Rep. John Boehner, is disdaining talk of a Republican rout and campaigning virtually 24/7. In the last couple of weeks, Boehner has stumped for Republicans in North Dakota, California, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas and Iowa, as well as tending his own political fences in Ohio. “Thirty-nine seats is a very steep hill to climb,” says Boehner spokesman Kevin Smith. “Obviously, earning back the majority is our goal, but no one is taking anything for granted.”
Some of the talk downplaying the GOP lead may be counterspin to ensure Republicans don’t become overconfident. “We don’t want to cause our voters to get lax and think we’ve got it,” says the member of the election team. But Republicans are also genuinely concerned about peaking too soon. “The notion of a wave that is already large and is going to build the next six or seven weeks into a massive Republican triumph is not, I think, accurate,” says Weber.
Perhaps the best way to characterize the GOP election team now is confident but nervous — confident that the basic trends of the election are going their way but nervous at the talk of a runaway victory. Be on guard against irrational exuberance, they’re telling supporters — and be sure to vote on Nov. 2.
Left unstated here is the very real concern over the kinds of election-week tactics many Dems are more than happy to deploy — from inflated voter rolls to “finding” ballot boxes stuffed with Democrat votes after a close election doesn’t go the way it “should”; after all, when you are on the side of the angels, the angels do naught but smile on your deeds, unethical though they may appear to those of the non-angelic bent.
To score a landslide, then, the GOP would have to score more of an earthquake; because a regular landslide will probably come away looking mighty close, when all is said and done.
And frankly, there are still too many horrific GOP candidates to trigger anything more, on a national scale, than a sign for “danger, falling rocks.”
But maybe I’m just jaded.
D: -100+ H&S
the governorships are every bit as important if not more so… on the national level Team R is still adrift…
That it’s a given that Team R has no intention of looking for new leadership in the House is definitely a clue that less landslideyness is going on than meets the eye. It certainly tells you that if a landslide’s in the offing it’s expected to be a comfortably establishmenty one.
Mr. W, call your office.
Well this new crew, Scott, West, Pantano, et al, might skip the whole seniority principle and get
stronger leadership, hence the panic among the roaming Rinos
that would be a pivot point I think Mr. smiley, or at least be a reasonably hopeful sign that pivotings are possible
Free-roaming RINOs. Paints an amusing picture, if you ask me.
Yeah, you’re jaded.
It doesn’t mean you’re wrong.
on the national level Team R is still adrift
American parties are frequently adrift on the national level happyfeet. The reality is there are fifty state parties, not one all controlling national party. Like Tip O’Neill said, politics is local, and the fifty state parties are the ones that nominate candidates for the House and the Senate, and none of those parties care much what the other parties think. The only time you actually see any coordination is during a presidential election year when you have the only two nation-wide offices up for a vote, and even that comes down to mostly being a ‘barely coordinated’.
Seriously – presidential candidates run their own campaigns, they don’t run their campaigns out of national party headquarters. That barely has any input at all in any race.
Quick – What exactly is the authority of the head of the RNC or the DNC over any elected Republican or Democrat? What power do they wield?
The answer to both is “nothing”.
You are correct, though, when you say that governors exert a tremendous amount of influence in state parties, and are very important positions to fill.
After November 2nd, the Domocrats will be able to caucus in the congressional cloakroom.
I have faith in two things:
1) My fellow Americans.
2) Even the Democrats are sick of “The Democrats”.
Nah, you’re not jaded, just spent too long watching the GOP putting on the suck. With luck, ten years hence, the Republicans, having joined the Whigs as a historical footnote, will be just as fondly remembered as the Whigs. We can all still be jaded, of course: the Democrats will still be here. There’s no fumigating the party of race-baiting, greed, and class envy.
If It’s Not Close, They Can’t Cheat: Crushing the Democrats in Every Election and Why Your Life Depends On It*.
I can get behind that.
The problem remains the country club Republicans like McCain, Castle and Graham. Until they are gotten rid of the GOPs principles will always be up for sale.
I’ve been doing a decent bit of phone bank and door to door work lately. Believe me, you have plenty of company sharing your concerns, including myself. It’s fairly easy to make the point that guys like Scott Walker (candidate for Wi Gov) and Russ Johnson (running against Feingold) are the sorts of people who want to make real changes. That definitely helps get people motivated.
Don’t know how I’d try to convince people stuck with some of these other candidates though. Shit, I’d have to start with myself. There is always the issue of caucusing to pitch but it’s hard to get to enthused about that when the usual suspects will always join with the other side to compromise towards Dem lite.
– Say what you want, I maintain that the anger all across the country is going to translate into a direct introduction of the far left to the words “silent majority”.
– I’ve seen this movie before.
I hope that’s right, BBH. If so, it would have been sort of cool to use this wave election to get rid of some dead weight as well as present our own vision in the affirmative.
I’m with #14.
BBH says the Dems are toast because they are toast. Even the ones that think they’re from “safe” districts.
Heard a peep from Nancy lately? She sees her poll numbers, and they ain’t good.
– If the people like myself, that see this as a all out tsunami, are correct, you won’t see hide nor hair of San Fran Nan. When she’s ushered out as speaker, she’ll virtually vanish from the front page. These people are not only narcissistic elitists, the last thing you’ll ever see them do is face the consequences of their mistakes.
– If they say anything at all, it will be Bush’s fault. To do otherwise would be unthinkable to the elitist mind. They’ve universally adopted the sin of self pride above all else, and they will pay the price, but they will never accept the personal responsibility, or face the music.
I’m thinking Nan will be ushered out of the Capitol and into the street with the rest of the Congressional refuse.
I wonder if any elderly people live in her district? Bet they loooove them some ObamaCare!
Every one of us needs to sign up as pollwatchers where we live. If nothing else, be on hand outside the polling places with video recorders (and CCW) in case any more New Black Panthers show up.
do donkeys like toast?
ponies like apples
donkeys are a good symbol for party of metrosexuals
“…Every one of us needs to sign up as pollwatchers….”
– At best any “events” caught on vid could be useful for news outlets. Beyond that, as long as Bumbblefuck is in the oval office the Justice department has openly stated “it will not pursue any irregularity’s or race crimes against people of non-color.” They dropped the NBP charges with no reason, other than that bigoted policy.
OT: “It is as if the president takes particular delight in not only saying things that are misleading but in saying things that are audaciously misleading.”
that’s so depressing… you can tell he’s thinking ahead about his phony deficit commission thingy after November what will help him and his Associated Press propaganda whores spin the deficit and agitate for tax increases. That’s a big part of his strategy for how he will keep violating America after he loses ground in Congress I think.
Seems like that’s the right read on it to me.
Note to Boehner: it’s down to tax increases or drastic spending reductions. Obama is making his pitch. Consider making yours.
I think the poll watchers this election will far outnumber the New Black Panthers Same As The Old Black Panthers at the polls this year.
It is telling that people are less afraid of some doofuses with nightstick than they are of Das Fed.
Here is a catchy Friday song.
it’s all about entitlements really… reforming the social security the democrats told us didn’t need reforming and wouldn;t need reforming for many many moons
They lie.
you just don’t like their narrative
here is my catchy Friday song for you to hear
My catchy tune can kick hap’s catchy tune’s arse.
And mine is an honor student at Hillsburg Elementary too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTsGg6t1dIE
Heh. Not a catchy tune, my video, but a beautiful mind.
the demoncrats cant steal this one. its a tidalwave
the rage guy annoys me cause he’s the rage guy…
that was amazing Mr. sdferr
The Rage guy annoys me because I love the riffs, and would like to get my band to play the songs — but no singer I’ve ever had would want to sing his childish filthy commie lyrics. And any singer that did, well… it “wouldn’t work out”.
Always remember, BBH, there are state voter fraud statutes….
#32
I kept waiting for it to get better, but it never did. Like the obama presidency. It was totally gay and dull. Like the obama presidency.
We ,here in Illinois, might actually get a governor who isn’t a rino. At least notr as big a rino as the last republican governor. And somebody smart republican to replace that dead guy we have as one of our senators.
And over at Transterrestrial Musings, a RINO (“I was a McCain supporter in 2008”, he says proudly), predicts a narrow Democratic hold to a toss-up.
Because, you see, this noise and kerfuffle about smashing Republican victories comes from teabaggers. Whom real Americans despise as bigoted snowbillies, and will vote Demonrat to keep out of office.
I expect to be drinking my victory toast on November 3 from his skull.
No, I’d put all the nefarious means aside. Assume your side wins fair and square. Whatever will you do?
cynn
I know I’m going to hold feet-to-fire to start undoing Obama’s statist shit.
Jeff, your ennui is obvious.