Wait, so if you try to finesse self-interested rogue regimes from a position of weakness — and let’s face it, taking certain military responses off the table is hardly the kind of preemptive strike that anyone outside of Susan Sarandon’s bedroom is likely to find diplomatically effective — the message those regimes may take from that is that you are, in fact, weak? Wow. Who could have seen that coming. From the WSJ:
[…] In her first game of high-stakes diplomatic poker, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is leaving the table dressed only in a barrel.
So instead of the U.S. and Europe backing Iran into a corner this spring, Mr. Ahmadinejad has backed Mr. Obama into one. America’s discomfort is obvious. In its statement yesterday, the White House strained to “acknowledge the efforts” by Turkey and Brazil while noting “Iran’s repeated failure to live up to its own commitments.” The White House also sought to point out differences between yesterday’s pact and the original October agreements on uranium transfers.
Good luck drawing those distinctions with the Chinese or Russians, who will now be less likely to agree even to weak sanctions. Having played so prominent a role in last October’s talks with Iran, the U.S. can’t easily disassociate itself from something broadly in line with that framework.
Under the terms unveiled yesterday, Iran said it would send 1,200 kilograms (2,646 lbs.) of low-enriched uranium to Turkey within a month, and no more than a year later get back 120 kilograms enriched from somewhere else abroad. This makes even less sense than the flawed October deal. In the intervening seven months, Iran has kicked its enrichment activities into higher gear. Its estimated total stock has gone to 2,300 kilograms from 1,500 kilograms last autumn, and its stated enrichment goal has gone to 20% from 3.5%.
If the West accepts this deal, Iran would be allowed to keep enriching uranium in contravention of previous U.N. resolutions. Removing 1,200 kilograms will leave Iran with still enough low-enriched stock to make a bomb, and once uranium is enriched up to 20% it is technically easier to get to bomb-capable enrichment levels.
Only last week, diplomats at the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges it is using to enrich uranium. According to Western intelligence estimates, Iran continues to acquire key nuclear components, such as trigger mechanisms for bombs. Tehran says it wants to build additional uranium enrichment plants. The CIA recently reported that Iran tripled its stockpile of uranium last year and moved “toward self-sufficiency in the production of nuclear missiles.” Yesterday’s deal will have no impact on these illicit activities.
The deal will, however, make it nearly impossible to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program short of military action. The U.N. is certainly a dead end. After 16 months of his extended hand and after downplaying support for Iran’s democratic opposition, Mr. Obama now faces an Iran much closer to a bomb and less diplomatically isolated than when President Bush left office.
Israel will have to seriously consider its military options. Such a confrontation is far more likely thanks to the diplomatic double-cross of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazil’s Lula, and especially to a U.S. President whose diplomacy has succeeded mainly in persuading the world’s rogues that he lacks the determination to stop their destructive ambitions.
Not to worry though: such a move by the Israelis will have the double effect of solving the problem and taking Obama and co. off the hook for its diplomatic bungling. Further, the Administration will as a result (never let a good crisis go to waste!) be able to hem and haw and denounce and play to the anti-Zionism of their “progressive” base — and if that causes the Israelis problems down the road from the “world community,” well, sucks to be them.
In other words, fecklessness only comes to count as fecklessness when it isn’t being celebrated as a triumph of “pragmatic” restraint. And just as this administration has shown it is willing to kick the can down the road at every opportunity, its supporters have shown that they will greet each new craven deferral and sign of impotence with a hero’s welcome.
Is it 2012 yet?
(h/t Terry H, who writes: “World opinion of America continues to improve as those who wish us ill take delight in our self-loathing and self-destructing policy. HOPE! CHANGE!”)
It’s not really possible to overstate what a tiny, inappropriate little man Obama is.
Why does the AP hate Obama? Can’t we all just get along?
One cannot help but to think of features and bugs.
He promised he would talk to anyone during the campaign. And he is doing that!
Weee.
Does the Ghost of Neville Chamberlain visit Obama like Marley visited Scrooge?
Greetings:
I saw a discussion on France24 TV last evening in which a commentator said that only France or Argentina could actually enrich the Iranian uranium due to technological considerations. France, obviously, was unlikely to do so and same-same with Argentina due to the Iranians having bombed a jewish Center in Buenas Aires some years ago. Way above my technological understanding.
Also, I didn’t mean to annoy you yesterday. My comment seemed very funny to me. Please don’t disrupt my happiness.
Bob Marley has a new song out? Where can I get a copy of “Scrooge?” Is it available to download? As for Neville, well, I must admit, the Neville Brothers are darn good stuff.
Oh wait, we’re talking some sort of stuff that happened 60 years ago? That’s history, doesn’t apply now, because things have hopefully changed.
Obama surprised that his administration’s offical position no different than Arizona’s new immigration law. Opps.
I guess he will immediately denounce himself and his administration as racist.
No, Joe. He will now be morally compelled to call for blanket amnesty. For the children.
#7: What’s scary is that you have probably recorded Obama’s exact thoughts. Damn you are good!!
We might wonder how far Obama & Co.’s notions of strategic thinking allow forceful presentations of opposing views in their national security council meetings? Are proponents of contrary strategies vis a vis Iran, who think along the lines of VP Cheney say, invited to present arguments to be weighed carefully in these discussions or are they shut out? We don’t know. Does anyone speak to the throne of power in words designed to show the folly of our current strategic approach? We don’t know. How do men such as Sec Def. Gates or Joint Chiefs Chair Mullen see their duty to voice an honest strategy in the interests of the nation as opposed to hewing to a potential strategy in error of their organizational boss the President? We don’t know. We certainly haven’t seen any prominent resignations lately, if such events were to be taken for a manifestation of serious disagreement.
Don’t go gloating just yet ye all Obama haters.
Seems like nobody is happy with Iran and a sanctions resolution is being circulated in the UN Security Council today.
Bush / Cheney’s unilateral policy of constant threats and no talking until you do what we demand didn’t do much, did it. Perhaps an adult approach to adult problems can.
Oh, and JHO, Obama, at 6 foot 1 inch, is kinda tall.
Here’s a little pushback on a related front, at least. It’s not much all-taken-in-all but I suppose it’s better than nothing.
Just about two years left under the colors…looks like something sure might pop, big, before I can beat my sword into a plowshear….sigh.
So, how long before the maps of the middle east have a black spot that says “Wasteland Formerly Known as Israel” on them?
Will there be an asterisk next to them? One that says something like: *courtesy of the Obama Administration
I’m really, REALLY not in the mood for Isaiah, Ezekiel, and Revelation to start making sense.
NOT.
Kresh,
I think Israel would not be the only country with a lot of glowing glass. Every Arab country knows that if nukes are flung at Israel, Israel will respond in kind.
I think trouble with start with North Korea invading South Korea. Eventually, the US is drawn into that war with China backing North Korea.
Russia then tries to take advantage of the US and China conflict.
I was reading about this situation on Stratfor last night. All I can think is that our dear leaders are a bunch of clowns. We should be leaving Afganistan so we can increase forces in Iraq, not the other way around.
There was this game, set in pre WWI Europe, called diplomacy. It was about negotiating alliances, gaining position, and being the most backstabbing sob ever evolved.
The one the Obama Administration is using for training purposes is Doplimacy. It is the version made for morons (but not the good AoS type).*
*Yes, I saw the Doplimacy joke sometime about 30 years ago. Yes, I know I am a nerd to know what (a) Diplomacy was as a game and (b) that I could understand Doplimacy as a joke, and (c) to know that I could type this explanation and expiation.
So there.
#18: Ooooooh! Strong Sanctions! I am so scared! Why are these powers hurting the peasants – I mean – our people (when we mullahs, imans, bully-boys and thugs employed by ayatollahs won’t suffer one thing)? Why, this reinforces our determination to preserve the sovreignty of the Iranian nation (Make enough bombs to destroy those JOOOOOS! and scare America and Europe – gotta watch the Chinese, though. If they think we’re getting funny looking they won’t hesitate to nuke and then send in a bunch of those guys-without-wives to take the radiation and make sure we Iranians are all one with Xerxes).
So the nuclear reactors are all for peaceful and medical purposes for the children to improve sanitation and remove disease (like the filthy JOOOOOS!).
Just let the PRC know that we will never, ever support an insurgent group against them like we have supported Hamas, and Hezbollah, and the Chechnyans…
Look – just let the PRC know we ain’t going to do to them what we do to everyone else.
Obama : Strength through weakness. Or something. Hell, I’m making this up as I go along.
Real diplomacy? Are you fucking kidding me? STRONG sanctions?! Good Allah, do you use velcro to secure your shoes?
No, STRONG SANCTIONS RESOLUTION. Hello, Saddam.
well, but, if Hillary said it, it must be true. added bonus!? it’s on the interwebs. If it’s on the interwebs, it’s true!
About the same time that they include the black dots labeled, “Radioactive craters formerly known as Mecca and Medina”.
Mikey – I still have my Avalon Hill “Diplomacy” game sitting in the basement…used to play by e-mail too.
#25 – problem is that the Iranian clerics don’t really care all that much if Mecca and Medina get slagged….now if you made that Tehran, Qom, etc.. maybe.
Apparently, the new Barcky diplOmacy involves trying to forge alliances with the “moderate” members of Hezbollah.
#26 LTC John:
I have some Europa games sitting around, also. And some by Avalon Hill, also.