Steve Benen and others airily dismiss the idea that there was bias in the closure of Republican vs Democrat dealerships, even though Car Czar Steven Rattner’s wife was a National Democratic Party Finance Chairwoman. Statistics that are available suggest that Chrysler auto dealers donated 76% Republican and 24% Democratic. So, rough estimating, JD puts the question:
Comment by JD on 5/28 @ 11:45 am # |Edit This
There is surely a math person here that could answer a question like this. In a jar there are 3000 marbles, split at 75% black and 25% white (2250 black and 750 white). What are the odds that if someone began selecting marbles, and picked out 750, that not a one of them would be white? Or, that only one of them would be white?
Never mind. That is exactly what I meant to ask.
Numbers cruncher DrSteve answers:
Comment by DrSteve on 5/28 @ 12:37 pm # |Edit This
JD, I calculate the answers to your questions as follows:
> phyper(0,750,2250,750) # This is the likelihood of drawing no white marbles in a “handful†of 750 pulled from an urn with 2250 black marbles and 750 white ones.
[1] 2.219479e-111> phyper(1,750,2250,750) # This is the likelihood of drawing one white marble in a “handful†of 750 pulled from an urn with 2250 black marbles and 750 white ones.
[1] 8.339695e-109Did I read your statement of the problem right?
We use the hypergeometric since we’re sampling without replacement.
JD helpfully asks:
Comment by JD on 5/28 @ 12:43 pm # |Edit This
Thank you, DrSteve. I am not a math guy. Can you translate that idea into 1 chance in 8 for me? Would the answers be different if instead of a handful, they were selected 1 at a time?
DrSteve puts it into perspective:
Comment by DrSteve on 5/28 @ 12:55 pm # |Edit This
You’re looking at 2.2 in 10 raised to the 111th power (Sestrigintillion?), and 8.3 in 10 raised to the 109th power (10 Quinquatrigintillion?).
Which is funny, since the Sestrigintillion was going to be the replacement for the Caliber. Sigh…
No difference in a handful versus one at a time, except that in the case of a handful you know you’re not talking about replacing. One at a time could either be with or without replacement. Sampling with replacement requires a different distribution (since each draw doesn’t affect the probability of subsequent draws).
I realize that this is but a ballpark figure, once again, but it does suggest . . . something. Funny that many leftists don’t believe in miracles.
Forbes concludes that Sotomayor’s Didden decision is “more a red herring than a red flag,” but the difference there is that plaintiff was remunerated. Now, I ask you–how might this be germane to Chrysler? Will the question of how this was handled emerge anywhere in the Congressional hearings over Obama’s Sotomayor appointment?
bh, in comments, does the mathematical honors:
Comment by bh on 5/28 @ 5:08 pm # |Edit This
I gotta run but if the argument shifts to Nate Silver’s 88% R, 12% D assumption the relevant numbers are (no replacement):
r.phyper(0,360,2640,750) = 3.78929934504864E-049
r.phyper(1,360,2640,750) = 5.44831511488406E-047
To put that in perspective, the odds of this occurring without some undisclosed bias are about as remote as the odds of Harry Reid not being a douchebag. Bow down, Wingnuts!
More lack of understanding of fundamental statistics and probabilities.
REREUPDATE:
Greg Q had run the numbers once again, using Nate Silver’s:
The idiots at “Think Progress’ have the following ignorant post up:
As Press Secretary Robert Gibbs explained to Garrett, it is Chrysler — not the federal government — that is in charge of selecting which dealerships will be closed. Further, as Nate Silver explained in a post that was published just hours after the Examiner’s initial report yesterday, “There is just one problem with this theory. Nobody has bothered to look up data for the control group: the list of dealerships which aren’t being closed.â€
Silver explained, “It turns out that all car dealers are, in fact, overwhelmingly more likely to donate to Republicans than to Democrats — not just those who are having their doors closed.†In all, Silver found that “88 percent of the contributions from car dealers went to Republican candidates and just 12 percent to Democratic candidates,†while, the list of Chrysler dealerships being closed “gave 92 percent of their money to Republicans — not really a significant difference.â€
As I write this there are 258 comments over there. Not one of the references the hypergeometric probability distribution, which indicates that not one of their commenters knows what he or she is talking about. Short version: you have a urn full of black and white balls. You take a number of balls out, and don’t put them back in before taking other balls out. If you know the number of balls of each color in the urn, then you can calculate the probability that, by random chance, you will draw out ‘x’ white balls in ‘n’ draws from the urn.
There are 3000 Chrysler dealerships. 750 got told they’re getting closed. Using Nate Silver’s numbers, there are 2640 “Republican†dealerships, and 360 “non-Republican†ones. Of those dealerships, 690 R and 60 non-R dealerships were closed.
Using R, we can calculate the probability that, by random chance, 60 or fewer non-R dealerships would be closed out of 750
phyper (60, 360, 2640, 750)
Unfortunately for Nate, and for the TP big talkers, the result is 3.671535e-05. Or 9 in 250,000.
So yes, that is a significant difference.
Some of the posters over at Nate’s are claiming 3500 dealerships. Keeping all percentages the same, we get
phyper (70, 420, 3080, 875)
That takes the chance down to 8.738693e-06. Less than 9 in 1,000,000. IOW, fail.
I denounce you, and me. In the strongest terms possible.
These answers boil down to a cliche an old DC police Lieutenant used to quip occasionally.
“Son, there are only have 3 chances of [X] occuring; slim, chinaman’s, and none…”
“Sestrigintillion”
Sorry to steal your line N.O’Brain but “Do you speak English?”
/joking cause I have never even heard of a number that high
[channeling Jim Carrey’s character in Dumb and Dumber]
“…2.2 in 10 raised to the 111th power (Sestrigintillion), huh? So there is a chance!”
Less that one chance in a googol. Yep, “arbitrary” my cellulite-challenged posterior.
So you are saying there is a chance … Yes!
If this was random or arbitrary, then all of those Dem donors that were spared the knife, or given other’s portions of the pie, should run out and buy a Lotto and Powerball ticket immediately.
A Wikipedia lookup suggests that a “back of the envelope calculation” suggest there are roughly 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
The numbers being mentioned here have no meaning to us. They’re impossible numbers.
Epstein will answer Hemel’s challenge. Watch for it. At a guess (and it is only a guess on my part), the answer may turn on background of this sentence in Epstein’s earlier piece on the subject [my emphasis]:
Why? Because of this, from Epstein’s more recent piece [again with the emphases]:
This kind of makes a 3,500,000,000,000,000 budget look little.
So let me get this straight. 1000 reporters air drop themselves into Alaska to delve into the sexual habits of a VP candidate’s daughter, but yet 0 reporters even care if….I was in the middle of the thought there but this is really just to big to get ahold of, not only the federal government being able to decide which dealerships a private company closes, but also appoints a political hack as a “czar” in charge of shutting them down, and then happens to only shut down the ones that donate to the other political party….. God damn we are fucked.
hmmm.
am running around texas today and the dealers that are closing are all in the areas that were built up aggressively in last 25 years during sun-belt population explosion, a region where consumer delinquencies/defaults on cards, houses and cars outstrip the national average. In other words, according to one work colleague of mine, whose buddy is closing his Dodge dealership, they are dealers whose books have larger than ordinary (for chrysler) debt financing needs in an area where defaults are skyrocketing. In this environment, that is perceived as a major weakness. You could imagine this being the same for Florida and Georgia, and throw in Arizona too.
One other thing: any dealership south of Mason Dixon line is almost guaranteed to be 100% GOP-friendly. My colleagues in Dallas cannot imagine a Texas car dealer being anything but.
Violently anecdotal, but interesting.
Coincidentally, 8.3 in 10 quinquatrigintillion is how many people I’ve calculated will change their opinion of the Leader based on this.
That’s if he plainly admits that he sent his boys out to fuck these dudes — and revels in it. Says , “Face, bitches. Won. How my ass taste?”
On TV.
Twenty-four hours a day.
On every channel.
Forever.
And, again, ignoring the political interference in the process.
11. The far bigger crime is the governments conduct toward Bondholders in GM case.
I have no idea why we are even remotely involved in Chrysler’s case, because I have no idea why we have three multi-platform auto manufacturers in this day and age. I will grant that the USG’s role in this affair is assuredly appalling however.
Rattner’s role is the least disconcerting to me. No one gets any role in any administration without being a major supporter of the POTUS, cash, or cash-raising wise. Rattner’s case is especially risible, of course, but the bigger problem is his unconstitutional approach to the matter.
mcgruder, I think a theft is a theft, whether it’s against bondholders or dealers.
Well rob, I was presenting a view of the situation that had a different set of assumptions embedded into it.
Im not 100% certain they–Obama admin. said, “Lets get these GOP donating bastards.”
It appears to me, having just gotten around to thinking on this, they may have said, “Go after the dealers that are overly reliant upon debt-financing which are located in areas where consumer defaults are currently or historically problematicaly high.”
that template fits a whole lotta red state into it.
the bigger problem is one that has been annunciated repeatedly: what the hell are the feds doing within 10 miles of this situation?
that is the vastly larger scandal in my opinion.
Dan, I agree.
Larger question: What is the bridge too far? when do people start saying enough is enough? What is that tipping point?
This is only half the data. How many of the dealerships not closed were GOP donors?
Never happen. Too many of us are waiting for our
slave collarsnational health care.The entire scenario is confounding. I sit here in bewildered awe that this is being done, any nary a peep from the Republicans, and the fellating media just ignores it. The cases where a dealer contract was ended, a contract and market that had a demonstrable value, and simply given to another just seems like overt theft, especially when they just happened to go to big Dem donors. It is sad that this will not be the tipping point, much more to come, as The One tells us.
It’s certainly something that needs to be looked in to, but these cursory calcs aren’t enough. You need to take other variables into account, such as location and general profitability (who knows, maybe Democrats are better car salesmen). In other words, if you had a jar where there are 3000 marbles, split at 75% black and 25% white, and the white marbles were twice as heavy as the black, it would probably be reasonable to conclude that significantly fewer white marbles, if any, would be taken out in the first 750, simply because their weight would have driven them to the bottom of the jar. We do need to know more, but the way it looks now, those confounding variables must be doozies for this to be above board.
JSchuler, we’re looking to get all of the relevant information. That’s the whole idea, here. That’s why the disclaimer “all other things being equal.” Still, to return to the question I posed before, what’s enough evidence to make a prima facie case of bias?
Ah, JSchuler, another person incapable of seeing the forest for the trees.
WHAT ARE THE STATS!!!!
Who cares? The Obama administration is dictating who can and who cannot own a business. Arguments over who, exactly, they’re favoring or punishing are incidental to that fact.
How about evidence of profitable dealers not being renewed and their contract being given to a competitor that did lesser volume and just coincidentally was a Dem donor?
Or, JD, of every competitor to a major Dem donor being closed and not a single one of that donor’s dealerships getting the axe?
JD,
Where would a Govmo Widowmaker dealer be more apt to succeed? Dallas or South Side? Some weight has to be given to the demographics of a dealer’s sales area. There is a need for a lot of people dumb enough to buy off on warranties backed by the Ogabe Administration in order to successfully peddle Govmo vehicles.
Well, c’mon, Rick. It’s self-evident that all those people who were abusing the credit market were primarily Republicans.
Hey, I just saw this post so I fired up Gnumeric and I can verify DrSteve’s r.phyper calcs.
Shamelessly cribbed from Nate Silver’s site;
“Overall, 88 percent of the contributions from car dealers went to Republican candidates and just 12 percent to Democratic candidates. By comparison, the list of dealers on Doug Ross’s list (which I haven’t vetted, but I assume is fine) gave 92 percent of their money to Republicans — not really a significant difference.
There’s no conspiracy here, folks — just some bad math.
It shouldn’t be any surprise, by the way, that car dealers tend to vote — and donate — Republican. They are usually male, they are usually older (you don’t own an auto dealership in your 20s), and they have obvious reasons to be pro-business, pro-tax cut, anti-green energy and anti-labor. Car dealerships need quite a bit of space and will tend to be located in suburban or rural areas. I can’t think of too many other occupations that are more natural fits for the Republican Party. Unfortunately, while we are still a nation of drivers, we are not a nation of dealers.”
You are so fucked, just not for the reasons you think.
We definitely need more data, this isn’t enough to even become exercised over yet. It’s maybe half the picture or less. Certainly damning right now, but not sufficient to wonder why the media isn’t all over it yet. You’d need overwhelming, extreme evidence to get them to mention it on page F-25, in the middle of the classifieds.
To any person with a shred of integrity in their body, this entire fiasco should set off so many bells, whistles, and red flags that you would become deaf and color blind.
Mark – That is a fucking lie and you, sir, are a fucking liar.
Sorry, mark, but we’ve been generous about our calculations, given your numbers. I wish you all would learn a little math. It would make your belief in science so much more consistent.
In order for them to come up with those dishonest numbers, they used all autodealers as opposed to Chryslers franchises. Then, as you can see, they piled on assumption after canard after meme, and arrived at their talking point that there is nothing to see here. No thanks, I am not buying.
Plus, they conveniently overlook the fact that the government has no business in doing this, no matter who is effected. What are bugs to some are features to others.
[…] x2: Liberals say there’s no there there. But if stats don’t lie, we have to wonder why 25% of the closing dealerships aren’t owned by Democrats. Category: Economics, Politics, President Obama | Comment (RSS) […]
We can add markg8 to the list of people that deserve no better than mockery and scorn.
The great thing about mark, is that when he says “you are so fucked” he has no idea that he is part of the “you”. That’s a special sort of thinking. Worthy of some sort of award I think.
If it was random, there would be a normal curve. It would be shifted towards the Republican end of the continuum, since there are many more R donating dealers than D donating, but the curve itself would remain. It’s the hallmark of a random selection.
All R and No D makes Obama’s Car Tsar a BAAAAAD boy…
The great thing about mark, is that when he says “you are so fucked†he has no idea that he is part of the “youâ€
But everyone knows that alligators don’t eat people named Mark. It’s in their bylaws, damnit. BYLAWS!
Yeah, Mark, take your Occam’s Razor bullshit back where it came from!
Damn, Jd, you are so stupid, it just drips off your slack-jawed gape and onto the keyboard! Why don’t you go to the front door and scream that owning a car dealership is a random act, which has nothing to do with probability, geography, or demographics.
It won’t make it any more true, but at least your neighbors would remember you’re an idiot and stay away. You’d be providing a service.
While you’re at it, ask yourself if your job was randomly assigned to you. Car dealers, much like Nate Silver noted, are not 1000 random marbles. They chose their job, because they were pre-disposed toward it and had the capitol and capacity to do it (apparently poorly). In fact, nothing speaks to the vast probability that most car dealers are Republicans than their short-sightedness, poor investments, and general incompetence. Plus, they like to screw people in service of their own greed. It just reeks of Republicanism.
Nonetheless, conspiracy theories are fun. Can you tell us about the Tri-lateral Commission/Council on Foreign Relations/UN take over of all our guns and money? In addition to a million other things going on, this President you (and yes, you personally, JD) allege cannot speak without a teleprompter, somehow master-minded the closing of a bunch of car dealerships based on political contributions (in just a few months….he’s so stupid AND diabolical)!
JD = King of the Morons.
Oh, and Mark, these Levin lovers will not abide by either of us. The “insults” will, as always, take the form of “you’re a bog liar.” Not exactly a rebuttal, but then JD’s never been good at arguing.
Car dealers are not marbles! Your math means nothing, wingnuts!
Well actually Silver used “car dealers”, “automobile dealers” and every variation he could think of that applied. I suppose he could have tried “Chrysler dealers’ but when you’re looking at campaign contributions I doubt anyone would use that term on the form.
You guys seem to be saying they should have used some kind of random sampling to decide which dealers to close down. Or worse, a politically weighted sample so equal numbers Democratic and Republican dealers would get the knife.
That makes as much as sense economically as divvying up Medicare dollars that way. FL and AZ get more Medicare dollars than some other states by virtue of their high elderly population. You may have a dealer who has been in the top 2% of sales over the last five years in an area where they’ve just seen dozens of plant closings. Or his margins suck because he’s been dumping them. Or new Kia and Toyota stores opened down the block last year. Or Richard Shelby and Bob Corker have been really good at convincing the locals that Japanese and Korean cars are way cool now, much cooler than American brands. Who knows?
But I gotta tell ya guys, speaking of Shelby and Corker, if they had their way, and I suspect a lot of folks here concurred – don’t make me go back in your archives to find out – there wouldn’t be a Chrysler, Jeep or Dodge dealer left today cuz they were trying to force both GM and Chrysler to liquidate last winter.
In fact, nothing speaks to the vast probability that most car dealers are Republicans than their short-sightedness, poor investments, and general incompetence. Plus, they like to screw people in service of their own greed. It just reeks of Republicanism.
I think this is worthy of some sort of award as well.
Wow, josh called me names. I must be wrong. I see the standards they like are “because we say so, dammit (stomp foot)”. Promise to not reproduce, josh? Now, run along on back to whatever cave or hole you crawled out from under.
Mark, I gotta tell you, as I’ve told everyone else, WE DIDN’T WANT ANY OF THEM BAILED. But if Chrysler were to be bailed, we would have thought that it might be incumbent upon the people doing the bailing to make sure that all the classes of investors were treated equally.
Ding! To the markg8’s of the world, economic distress on Republicans is cosmic justice. What a swell guy.
Anybody clink on Dan’s WashMonthly link from a previous post? The
cesspoolcomments section is brimming with the same stuff.You guys seem to be saying they should have used some kind of random sampling to decide which dealers to close down.
Nope. Re-read Dan’s first post. We want the criteria for the selections released and the media to do their damn job because even if they randomly selected dealerships something’s screwy.
It’s kind of funny to watch leftards – who use raw numbers for all manner of policy and social bullying – digging so hard for logical explanations while calling everyone else stupid for seeing something fishy. Such a refreshing change of pace.
Good on you for admitting, markg8, that the guy you were shamelessly plugging used a metric for a baseline other than the applicable one for Chrysler dealers. Convenient, that.
We have seen this josh clown before. Anyone care to guess what he is like?
I suppose he could have tried “Chrysler dealers’ but when you’re looking at campaign contributions I doubt anyone would use that term on the form.
No, but he could have looked at the actual lists of Chrystler dealers and run the for-real specific numbers. The lists of closing and safe dealers are public, with the names of their owners.
And, presto! Josh shows up to further my point. Take a bow, jackass.
Bastiches – I think DrSteve showed, quite well, that this was most certainly not random.
What should concern everyone is that these Leftists think that this is a good, proper, and just thing for the government to be doing. $30,000,000,000+ to date, and they will still both wind up in bankruptcy, but the UAW will be protected, and the government will tell them what kind of cars to make. Great.
Doesn’t have a fucking clue about how to run a business just like his cum-daddy in the WH. If he’s ever been employed at all, he’s been fired enough times to nurse a lingering paranoid grudge against businesspeople.
Lost on Mark – some of the high producing dealership are shut (and happen to non-Dem conributors), in some cases the franchises handed over to Dem dealers, in violation of all the statistics he himself says should apply.
And when no one buys them, regulate/tax/unionize the remaining car companies until they leave the country.
Good start, kelly. Good start.
Sarah – They do not care. They have Teh Narrative to service, and Barcky did it, therefore it is good, finally just, and proper.
The retort I keep seeing seems to be, “You haven’t proven the thing you want to investigate so that shows it shouldn’t be investigated!” This makes little logical sense and we’d still be living in caves if we adopted it as a standard operating procedure.
No, when you come across something that seems interesting you start with simple little tests to see if you’d be wasting your time with more research. This explains our desire for tabulated data on all dealers to see if we could find a surprising high correlation coefficient for “closed down” and “Republican”. It wouldn’t “prove” anything but it would indicate we might not be wasting our time by building a more complete model. JD’s question works in much the same way. Does this prove anything yet? No, but it does strongly lead the open minded to consider that more research is warranted.
Before this I was pretty sure that we should ask questions of our government about how and why decisions are made. Now I guess I am to take it on faith that this Obama fellow is a trustworthy sort and we should just let him do his thing without examination.
Josh,
You seem to have built a nice theory here:
“In fact, nothing speaks to the vast probability that most car dealers are Republicans than their short-sightedness, poor investments, and general incompetence. Plus, they like to screw people in service of their own greed.”
Perhaps the only short sightedness was believing Obama would treat them fairly.
Maybe the poor investment is only poor because the government nationalized the company and pulled your franchise out from under you.
Hardly something you prepare for in US business. Venezuela maybe.
General incompetence is something I don’t think you’ve proven as being the rule in the closed dealerships. I think it has been proven that on the whole, the competitive position of major Obama supporter Robert Johnson’s investments in the industry have been enhanced significantly.
Of course if Obama releases all the numbers, memos and emails behind this process, we could see it for ourselves and judge accordingly.
I also have no doubt that some of the Republican run businesses that were cut off here were not stellar performers. I’d guess that instead of being totally transparent about this process, that in the next few days selective individual releases of Republican run stinkers are made instead. We’ll see.
Finally, you toss out greed as a general attribute of Republican car dealers. I am sure some are driven by the Soros level of greed you describe so well here, but there really is no way for you or I to know any of this about any of the dealers without knowing the individuals personally.
“We want the media to do their damn job” – good luck with that.
Dan: …”WE DIDN’T WANT ANY OF THEM BAILED…But if Chrysler were to be bailed, we would have thought that the people doing the bailing to make sure that all the classes of investors were treated equally.”
Then excuse my cynicism about your concern for anybody involved other than investors who don’t believe in capitalism. Never mind about resurrecting part of America’s industrial base, never mind about keeping Americans working and off unemployment, Medicaid and Medicare. Employed at companies, mind you that have taken care of their retirees for decades, keeping them out of that “socialist” medical system Medicare. That policy almost killed them btw, GM alone has 400,000 retirees they pay health insurance for in this country while Toyota has about 700 and they don’t cover them.
You’d think you wingnuts would thank GM, Chrysler, Ford and the UAW for not burdening the taxpayer with their retiree’s healthcare since 1965. But you’ve never been a grateful lot.
Larger question: What is the bridge too far? when do people start saying enough is enough? What is that tipping point?
I wonder about this, too. The stations where I listen to Limbaugh sandwich ABC and CBS news in at the breaks. Those segments usually emphasize good economic news, painting the picture that the economy is slowly mending. Then Rush comes back on, painting doomsday.
So I wonder if the “tipping point” will be determined by what really happens in 51% of the population’s lives?
Bh & Makewi – josh, the pillar of intellect that it is, has told us that there is nothing to see here, except for failed Republicanism. Moveonmorg beeyotches.
“Then excuse my cynicism about your concern for anybody involved other than investors who don’t believe in capitalism.”
In posting on a blog, one encounters all kinds of crazy shit, but that’s some of the craziest that I’ve ever read. Dumbass.
I’d argue the statistical problem really hasn’t begun to have been solved in this case. Sure, one can calculate the number of marbles, white or black, but the problem is nowhere near that simple. Dealership=Republican/Democrat is only one variable. Location’s another, just to use an easy example.
In short, it’s not a binomial issue, it’s really an ANOVA problem.
“We want the media to do their damn job†– good luck with that.
I applaud your honesty in admitting what we’ve known all along in regards to the nature of the media. Usually you put up a bigger fight than that. Chalk it up to malaise?
Dan, I do agree that this looks bad enough that it is incumbent upon the White House and Chrysler to fully release the criteria and the data that led to the closings. I’m just stressing that, at this point, what is there isn’t conclusive. There is a tendency for people to go off half-cocked on these things, in which case the issue can blow up in their faces (with those who are honestly interested in the details taken out as collateral damage).
Mr. Crawford: Have you considered that the very reason we are concerned with the stats is an argument against government interference with a private company? If Chrysler was completely independent and made decisions based on pure partisanship, it wouldn’t be that big of a deal, because it’s Chrysler’s money and it can do what it wants. It’s not that we can’t see the forest for the trees, it’s that we are taking stock of how many trees there are so that we can better communicate the scope of the woods we’re in.
Comments #15-18:
That really is the point of all of this, isn’t it? To find out what criteria were used to determine which dealerships were to close, and whether dealerships that were spared met the criteria for closing, but somehow, were not closed. That opens the door to asking if there were other unmentioned criteria used in the closing decisions.
Without knowledge of the actual criteria used, specualtion runs rampant; and specualtion on top of speculation will, in time, become its own data. A pattern, as it were. “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.”
That’s fine, ABA, but I still want to know what constitutes presumptive evidence of bias to a liberal.
well who was it? someone said something very smart. brb.
I suggest that mark read “the World is Flat” by Thomas Friedman before he starts talking about government action used to “resurrect” anything. Since it’s written by a non-wingnut, maybe some of the truths about the world will start to sink in.
1. Mark and the other fellow are missing the larger point, which is what the hell are we even doing supporting the auto industry? Or, what are we doing in the details of a restructuring if we have to step in with financing? Its far easier to insult JD or whatever. I have heard no compelling left-of-center explanation for the government’s actions with respect to the auto industry.
2. I still like my hypothesis: That many of these dealers are leveraged to areas that are both experiencing higher than average default rates across a variety of debt instruments, and whose books are highly dependant on debt financing. Those dealers are disporportionately going to be in red states. If I was looking to pare back dealerships, that’s where I’d start.
We should always ask questions of our government about how and why decisions are made, but we shouldn’t make whackjob arguments for or against the decisions they make. That just leads to dumb stuff like this and supporting torture.
And as I’ve said before, mcgruder, that ought to be an easy formula for Chrysler to divulge to demonstrate their evenhandedness.
It was Mr. Crawford is who it was. He said:
So if you’re a dirty socialist piece of shit president setting about stealing shit, what you really needs must do is not just be fair about it but be ostentatiously fair about it. Have your little powerpoint ready for download what explains exactly how you stole these people’s shit and why it’s more better that they be dispossessed of their shit. This is not what these ones have done. The dirty socialists we’ve got are the sloppy half-assed kind. Those ones are even worser.
Okay, mark: it’s clear that I can safely disregard you.
OT: A newspaperman of the old school interviewed on audio: H.L. Mencken, 1948. Just a thing to listen to.
h/t Cafe Hayek
“Employed at companies, mind you that have taken care of their retirees for decades, keeping them out of that “socialist†medical system Medicare.”
It was a private socialist system, unions parasiting off a productive company.
Just like the real thing.
Clearly, the President ought not be taking control of businesses and forcing creditors to eat dust while handing it to his political supporters. John Hawkins notes this is the worst and most obvious case of political corruption since Teapot Dome, but its a done deal and nobody seems to care that much. So there’s no leverage there. What you need is a lever to tip things over and get people interested and involved.
Closing down businesses based on political donations might be that lever. There’s not enough here to make any sort of conclusion or be argumentative, but there’s enough that it ought not be ignored.
You guys seem to be saying they should have used some kind of random sampling to decide which dealers to close down.
No one has said anything of the sort.
You are either a liar or an illiterate.
You don’t appear to be an illiterate.
Complete the syllogism yourself.
“… but I still want to know what constitutes presumptive evidence of bias to a liberal.”
One being a white male.
“That just leads to dumb stuff like this and supporting torture.”
Except for the “torture kept America safe for 8 years thing”.
mcgruder all car dealerships are highly dependent on debt financing. The whole car biz runs on credit as do most businesses. As for the rest of the parameters you’re probably right. An individual dealer who has done well in the past probably was staring at a depressed market, unbeknownst to, or unacknowledged by him, particularly for his products, in the future.
As for what are we doing supporting the auto industry? Millions of jobs. Liquidating GM & Chrysler would bring down Ford, most of their suppliers and probably force the transplants to go back home. The ripple effect on the American economy wold be like dropping a 2 ton boulder in a 4 foot puddle. Even in the depths of the depression we didn’t lose the big car companies.
Markg8–I agree.
why are we doing what we are doing in the auto industry? In other words, why are we making decisions that had been left up to regional management (dealership numbers), senior management (treatment of debt holders in a reorg.) or boards of directors (CEO appointment/ business platforms)?
Forget stupid crap like right wing and left wing, but think more deeply, please, and answer these questions: Does this make sense…are you comfortable with this policy? If so, why have other POTUS’s avoided intervention in previously routine corporate business decisions?
Now you’re special pleading on the “too big to fail” model, mark. What happened to “equal protection”?
BTW, mark, as the law of contracts is increasingly violated by wise people, you can expect the market to crater more. Stupid market hates uncertainty. Something about risk evaluation, I reckon.
You know, ‘feets, it was you who first said dirty socialists and Hungarian muppets and I kinda cringed. But I have to admit, you saw it coming. You pegged it first.
18 months ago, my not being an economist (yay!) I nevertheless saw something evil this way coming in monetary dickings around — “the mess Greenspan made” as Iacono calls it — but I severely underestimated the severity of this little global implosion we’re having where the abyss really kinda yawns at us.
The point being that this kinda crap is worse than it first appears — like all of our entitlement systems being bankrupt and the country having simply unprecedented debt and no manufacturing base proportional to its needs and that in parallel with staggeringly expensive foreign concerns and commitments and a selfish, fractious population.
About private businesses being stolen one shouldn’t be myopic by propping up unwarranted trust. Who said Venezuela upthread had a similar premonition. Paraphrasing Jeff from years ago, the pen of opinion is mightier than reality, and in these cases, the pen of state is faulty, MSM-style, multicultural, PC, weakass sentiment from sea to shining sea. Even today most of us trust what would ruin us all.
By what authority should be the first question we ask of govt for the next 50 years. We didn’t for the last 200 plus.
I thought you were disregarding me Dan? I said earlier you guys are truly fucked. Let me explain. As long as you go off half cocked on stuff like this, the high speed train from LA to Vegas that isn’t in the plans, torture keeping us safe for 8 years, Obama’s Kenyan birth, and other similar nonsense you have no evidence of, you’re not gonna be taken seriously.
And I tell you, mark, that I’ve not supported any kind of speculation about O’s Kenyan birth, high speed trains from LA to Vegas, partial disclosures regarding “torture” or theorizing about its comparative efficacy. Regarding this issue, either be substantive or fuck off.
You are right, mcgruder. They would rather insult me, point at shiny objects, and make fun of greedy wingnuts as opposed to simple explanations of what they think gives government the right to be doing what they are doing. Things like that are inconvenient. Best moveon to something else. Note how adept markg8 is at moving past his prior msitakes/lies without acknowledging same, or noting that the mistakes were central to their position, and just moving on to the next talking point/canard/meme.
Torture!!!!
“That just leads to dumb stuff like this and supporting torture.”
Awesome argumentative skillz ya got there, Marky – Mark. What’s next on your irrelevant hit parade? – “Yeah, and what about GITMO? No Blood for Oil! Fire doesn’t melt steel!”
“Liquidating GM & Chrysler would bring down Ford, most of their suppliers and probably force the transplants to go back home.”
Pardon me, but WTF are you talking about? Show some actual objective sourcing for such a broad statement of supposed “fact.”
“The ripple effect on the American economy wold be like dropping a 2 ton boulder in a 4 foot puddle. Even in the depths of the depression we didn’t lose the big car companies.”
Well, Einstein, the car companies were teetering on the edge of bankruptcy until we had a little thing happen like WWII, which necessitated an immediate converson to a wartime economy and major industrial retooling in order to produce tanks, guns, ammo, planes, etc. That’s what saved the auto industry – Jesus, read some history before you open that enormous blowhole again.
What mark8g seems to be saying, Dan, is if you’re going to speculate responsibly and ask for checks and sums, kindly do it in the privacy of your own lair. Alone, quietly, and powerless to perform messy intellectual intercourse with other political freaks like us. Kinda like Little Green Johnson wishes to conform “conservative” dialog.
That would be the Little Green Johnson who condemns the responsible Austrian School economics of a Murray Rothbard by way of his demanding the Lew Rockwells of the world shut the hell up.
I gotta run but if the argument shifts to Nate Silver’s 88% R, 12% D assumption the relevant numbers are (no replacement):
r.phyper(0,360,2640,750) = 3.78929934504864E-049
r.phyper(1,360,2640,750) = 5.44831511488406E-047
I think that’s a very apt analogy, JHoward.
Methinks Marky – Mark also believes that the Civil War happened sometime around 1955; you know, that time when the Magna Carta was written – and when the slaves were freed…or something like that, he only knows what he reads on the placemats in IHOP.
Is there anything more annoying than a concern troll?
Why do you even give a shit, marky? If I thought the left had a scintilla of introspection–which I don’t–I’d guess you guys are getting a little scared of this Ginormous Game of Chicken you’re playing. It would be humorous if the stakes weren’t the whole fucking country.
kelly, could you take a little of the edge off that? Just saying.
As always, these types show us quite a bit by showing us what they most certainly do not want to discuss. In the instant case, there are oodles of examples of what they do not want to talk about. Don’t even ask questions, bitches. I think the new Leftist mantra should be “shut the hell up and get over it. You lost and we will do what we goddam please”. Lord know they don’t want questions to be asked.
Which part, JHoward?
Thing about red states: most of the red states you’re mentioning aren’t. Really, really bad off states: Florida (Obama), Ohio (Obama), New Mexico (Obama), Nevada (Obama, I think), Pennsylvania (Obama), California (Obama), Michigan (Obama), Colorado (Obama). Texas and Arizona are the only outliers, and Texas certainly isn’t that hard hit yet, I only included it because of the sunbelt thing.
Lots of blue in that sunbelt red state map.
The part that mark8d will find unpleasant, kelly. Maybe if we could hum a few bars and see how it goes over…
Now, if you will excuse me, I am going to go to my room and cry, because of that big meanie josh who hurt my feelings. I am going to run away like a coward, like a josh, if you will. I mean, my psyche simply cannot take the fact that such luminaries like josh and markg do not agree with me. Whatever will I do now? Quelle horror, douchebags.
Oh, the “you” in that comment is mcgruder.
Sure. B flat work for you?
That way the horn players could jump in as well…
Dan, I do agree that this looks bad enough that it is incumbent upon the White House and Chrysler to fully release the criteria and the data that led to the closings.
The White House would never do it, and Chrysler would be intimidated into not doing it either.
Nope, this calls for some serious digging around, calling in favors, collecting leaked documents and junk. And looking for correlations between closings and business decisions to see if that tracks better than the R/D thing.
Sounds like a job for Steve McIntyre, but he’s got his hands full, I imagine.
Hey, I found the score for that tune: Fairies Aire and Death Waltz
#73
Aw. jeez.
What, exactly, has this bailout saved GM and Chrysler from? Near as I can tell, they are still going to end up in bankruptcy. Only difference is that they now have $30,000,000,000 of our dollars and the UAW got concessions that essentially make them a secured creditor in the bankruptcy court where they would not have been otherwise.
Have statistics on the correlation between dealer political donations and dealer closings been established?
I can state this beyond a shadow of a doubt. I will never purchase a GM or Chrysler again. We like the Fiskers electric car where they partnered with EnerDel, but the wait list is pretty long. I am going to buy a gas guzzling Ford SUV this fall.
You are on a roll, JD.
But you answered your own question in the last 21 words of your comment.
Oops, you guys are quick. I was referring to #109.
Sherman – Off hand, in the control group, the split was approx 76/24 R/D. In the closure group, about 99%/1 R/D.
It’s saved us at least 150,000 jobs, JD – and they’re all coming from magical fairy dust that will power all of our needs for the next century. I know this because teh One told me so yesterday, and after all, who needs actual facts and figures for something so obvious to any right – thinking soul?
By control group, do you mean the entire set of all dealerships, including both those to remain open and those now to be closed?
Dmac – Was he referring to jobs that he created, or jobs that he saved?
Sherman – That is the full set of Chrysler dealers – 76% R 24% D. After this, I suspect those numbers will change dramatically for 2009.
Sure, its like a poker tell: the stuff they want people to shut up about (note Obama’s warning Republicans to avoid criticism of his judicial pick) and what they avoid responding to and cry “LOOK OVER THERE!” about is very significant and important to notice.
Regarding comment 61 by Mark — Please see page 167 of attached CBO report. It is a myth that US companies are made less competitive because they provide health care benefits:
“Some observers have asserted that domestic producers that provide health insurance to their workers face higher costs for compensation than competitors based in countries where insurance is not employment based and that fundamental changes to the health insurance system could reduce or eliminate that disadvantage. However, such a cost reduction is unlikely to occur, except in the short run.
The equilibrium level of overall compensation in the economy is determined by the supply of and the demand for labor. Fringe benefits (such as health insurance) are just part of that compensation. Consequently, the costs of fringe benefits are borne by workers largely in the form of lower cash wages than they would receive if no such benefits were provided by their employer. Replacing employment-based health care with a government-run system could reduce employers’ payments for their workers’ insurance, but the amount that they would have to pay in overall compensation would remain essentially unchanged.”
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9924/12-18-KeyIssues.pdf
“Was he referring to jobs that he created, or jobs that he saved?”
Does it really matter? He told me he saved and/or created something out of absolutely nothing – it’s a miracle!
what the? yes, the eeeeevil investors take all the money they have and convert it to gold coins and horde it so they can swim in it like Scrooge McDuck.
and yet… here we are giving them money
um, almost? There may be some kind of lesson here.
again, how much has the government given them now?
I wonder how the job losses since the stimulus was passed compares to the estimates had it not passed …
DEALERGATE SMOKING GUN: STATISTICAL PROOF THAT WHOEVER SELECTED DEALERSHIPS TO BE CLOSED LOOKED AT WHO OWNED THEM AND NOT JUST THE NUMBERS
I think this item – from JONAH at The Corner (who is skeptical of the political angle) – actually proves that SOMEBODY paid very VERY close attention to the identity of which Chrysler dealers would not be renewed; (weirdly, Jonah posted this from a reader as if it buttressed the skeptic’s interpretation of events):
Of the 789 Chrysler dealers who were notified that their contracts will not be renewed, 38 are minority owned…
At the end of April, there were 154 minority dealers in Chrysler’s 3,181 total U.S. dealer body network….
You’ll see that 4.8% of the auto dealerships closed were minority owned.
Total percentage of all Chrysler dealerships that are minority owned? 4.8%
THAT’S RIGHT: THE % OF MINORITY OWNED DEALERS CLOSED IS EXACTLY THE % MINORITY OWNED.
THIS CANNOT POSSIBLY BE AN ACCIDENT, OR RANDOM.
REPEAT: THIS CANNOT POSSIBLY BE AN ACCIDENT, OR RANDOM.
REPEAT: THIS CANNOT POSSIBLY BE AN ACCIDENT, OR RANDOM.
THIS PROVES THAT
WHOEVER DECIDED WHICH DEALERSHIP
WOULD GET CLOSED LOOKED AT
WHO OWNED WHICH DEALERSHIP.
REPEAT: THIS PROVES THAT WHOEVER DECIDED WHICH DEALERSHIP WOULD GET CLOSED LOOKED AT WHO OWNED WHICH DEALERSHIP.
REPEAT: THIS PROVES THAT WHOEVER DECIDED WHICH DEALERSHIP WOULD GET CLOSED LOOKED AT WHO OWNED WHICH DEALERSHIP.
IT WAS NOT BASED ON NUMBERS ALONE.
WHOEVER DECIDED NOT TO CLOSE A DISPROPORTIONATE AMOUNT OF MINORITY OWNED DEALERSHIPS, MAY HAVE VERY WELL DECIDED TO CLOSE A DISPROPORTIONATE AMOUNT OF “GOP” DEALERSHIPS OR DEALERSHIPS IN GOP COUNTIES OR IN GOP CD’S.
THE PLAINTIFFS MUST DEMAND THAT THE BANKRUPTCY JUDGE GET THIS INVESTIGATED.
THE PRESIDENTIAL TASK FORCE AND THE WHITE HOUSE SHOULD BE SUBPOENAED.
ROUND UP HERE.
http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2009/05/dealergate-smoking-gun-statistical.html
Unemployment in April was higher than what was predicted w/o the stimulus plan and much higher than what was projected with the stimulus plan.
http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/the-april-numbers-are-in-its-official/
ALL CAPS is cruise control to cool.
Thanks, crazy lolcat. Alright, that felt odd typing that.
No matter what happens, the Federal government (that’s us, folks!) will end up paying the retirement benefits for GM and Chrysler employees. I know it isn’t exactly news to anyone here.
No way, cranky. Markg8 said that was not happening. Josh prolly did too, but he made me cry.
The race to the bottom continues among “conservatives.”
That’s not a refutation, poontard.
Is the moniker “poon” indicative of what an animal usually leaves in the woods? Sounds about right.
“Pooney Tang?”
Looks like you got a big bowl of nothing with this one, Dan.
17 months to the next election…better spend the time finding something real.
If you say something over and over and over and over in all caps does that make it more true?
If we only had a large pink paper mache tank. That’s the sort of evidence that might sway poon.
Looks like you don’t understand the concept of refutation, poon. I don’t think that 17 months provides enough time for you to get the gist.
If a poon queefs in the forest, and nobody hears it, is poon still a pussy?
It’s been a while since I used comparative statistics, but this seems like a good application for the Chi-squared method. Is that what you used, bh?
Why? Shut up, that’s why.
But…but…poon said there’s nothing to this, Dan. Doesn’t that end the discussion? I mean, if we can’t trust poon to do out thinking for us…
It’s always easier to be magnanimous with other people’s marbles, Don.
Very true. And judging from the quality of the trolls lately, the less a person has of their own, the easier it gets.
OK, maybe in addition to the paper mache we need an event sponsored by an international socialist organization and an agreement by the press to ignore both the more “colorful” elements in the crowd and who is sponsoring the event.
markg8 and josh,
What kind of car do you each drive? You’re seem very concerned about the UAW
communistsworkers, even though their greedy unions played a large role in the demise of those entities.You seem to be worried about the US manufacturing base, but I’ll bet you want to kill both missle defense and the F-22 project…
Do any of you left wingers even consider patronizing US companies, not just foreign manufacturers based here taking advantage of our workers productivity while shipping the profits back to their home country..?
Do you have the intellectual honesty to admit that if we didn’t have the highest corporate tax rate on earth, that maybe more businesses would locate here instead of moving offshore to China, or the likes of those kind of places..?
What do you guys drive..?
I’m guessing Honda or Toyota…Like most of the Union brothers that are worried about losing their jobs, or suck at the teat of perpetual paychecks wether they work or not from the job bank…
I may be an ex-flyboy, wingnut, but the wife and I walk the walk that we talk…In fact, I just recently purchased her a Chevrolet HHR regardless of the bankruptcy state of GM…
And I drive an H3…
The government had no right to favor the uninvested UAW over the supposedly secured rights of the bondholders. And has no business whatsoever in this whole effective takeover of the auto industry…
Both of your disingenuous arguments disgust me…
Meya,
Where do you get that number..?
I had forgotten how clueless mark8 was.
But we lost dozens of inefficient ones. And we aren’t losing the big ones now, Toyota, Honda and Ford are doing fine.
Jeffersonian, I followed DrSteve’s lead because of how JD’s question is posed.
So, a cumulative distribution function (hypergeometric not binomial, no replacement) rather than a significance test.
As a Gnumeric function, r.phyper (instances of pop x, pop x, pop y, total draws).
I’m sure that just by eyeballing this one, you too could guess an enormous number was coming our way. Which, eyeballing it again, yeah, this is statistically significant.
Random assortment of all possible permutations that might occur in selecting 789 dealerships of 3200, blindly. 3200x3199x3198 . . . x2411.
I’m guessing markg8 drives a Hudson, or a Packard, or a Studebaker, or an AMC.
Meya,
I’m not sure you got the scientific notation correct…
1 divided by 3.78 x 10^49 is not the quantity you yielded…
With all due respect…
meya doubles down on her douchebaggery
“17 months to the next election…better spend the time finding something real.”
Well, we have a leg up in that we know it’s not O!bama.
Even in the depths of the depression we didn’t have the big car companies, relatively speaking. Or the kinda big national debt. Or offshore manufacturers making all our stuff or foreign banks hostaging our balls thereby. mark8d lacks perspective in more than one area.
Bob, she’s throwing out the idea that there’s any kind of assortment, right from the get-go, and stating that the odds of any particular group of 789 units being chosen is what the calculation is really about. She knows that it’s a disingenuous argument to ignore the question of assortment, but she’ll argue it anyway, because she thinks that someone will interpret that as proving her foregone conclusion.
But wouldn’t that be dishonest, Dan?
I can’t wait until 2012, when the GovMo “You’ll buy this because we say so” model comes out, at a LOW LOW PRICE of ONLY $24,995, and two months later the same car comes into this country from China, and they sell it for $8,000.
(Does anyone here think the UAW will keep Chinese cars out of the US when China owns more than half of our debt?)
Remember what that student, Sean Parrish said about “problematizing” as necessary to a “redefinition”? Sophistry is never dishonest if it’s employed in the service of the common good.
Bob – I am sure that nobody needs to explain to you that meya has no interest in anything remotely approaching basic honesty. Expect a tsunami of stupid. Come to think of it, she is a lot like josh (sniff sniff) and markg8, but does us the simple kindness of erring on the side of brevity.
I’m sure that just by eyeballing this one, you too could guess an enormous number was coming our way. Which, eyeballing it again, yeah, this is statistically significant.
That was kinda where I was going with my question. When you start getting into probabilities with that many zeroes before them, statistical significance is pretty much a given.
Besides, hopeychangey people like being defrauded.
“3200×3199×3198 . . . x2411.”
No that’s not it.
“1 divided by 3.78 x 10^49 is not the quantity you yielded…”
Wolfram tells me that 3200 choose 789 is 2.64..×10^775. Maybe he’s wrong, I don’t know where you get the 10^49 number. Is it from dan’s formula? because he’s got it wrong.
Challeron – Long time, no see. Hola!
Right you are, Jeffersonian.
This will probably be posed as a red herring later but this is clearly a multivariate problem already. We’re saying pop x (Dem) and pop y (Rep) with no pop z (ind). JD phrased this in a clever way though. We’re looking at pop x (Dems), if we don’t care about the relative probabilites of pop y or pop z we can blackbox them together and still come out correctly for x.
One other thing that is being misstated all over the place is that Chrysler is “closing” these dealerships, implying that they are Chrysler’s to close. They are actually privately owned franchises purchased from Chrysler, and Chrysler is reneging on the deal.
If meya told me the sky is blue, I would get confirmation from 3 independent sources, and would make her define blue before I would believe her. She is that mendoucheous.
If you admit no populations–i.e. regard each as an undifferentiated individual–then you are posing Meya’s problem, unless I don’t understand what she’s trying to say. But the question has to do with populations, which liberals are normally very quick to ascribe a great deal of abstract meaning to. At any rate, the problem is predicated on what elsewhere in political dialogue people think to be significant.
bh – clever was not my intention. As that big fat hairy meanie josh pointed out above, I am not capable of clever, nuance, or even what would pass as rational thought. If I was clever, it was by accident. I just wondered what the actual chance of this happening was.
That’s exactly right, B Moe. And then there’s the question, cui bono?
my cynicism about your concern for anybody involved other than investors
Missed this bit of stupidity earlier.
Many of those investors were pension funds.
You know, the kind that pay out pensions to little old ladies, some of whom happen to be brown?
Why do you want to take away Granny’s pension check so some union guy can continue sitting on his ass in the “job bank” doing nothing, the same thing he’s been doing for the last 20 years?
Why do you hate brown people and old people, Mark?
As I see it, bh, the chi-square 2 x 2 matrix would be set up like this:
Republican?
Closed? Yes No
Yes
No
Now we just need to fill in the fields and do the calculation. Do we know what those four numbers are?
Gah…I needed to put a space filler in
………..Republican?
..Closed?..Yes…. No
……Yes
…….No
Jeffersonian, we could chi square or t but we’d need the full dealership data tabulated before I’d feel comfortable putting a test to it.
SBP – Other than one one the Indiana State pension funds, are any others still fighting the ass-fuckin’ that they are trying to give the investors?
JD, posing a question in a better way is more important than being one of the zillions of guys who can solve it once it’s correctly framed.
Jeffersonian, we could chi square or t but we’d need the full dealership data tabulated before I’d feel comfortable putting a test to it.
Well, do we know the overall Republican/non-Republican breakdown, both closed and not-closed?
Sometimes us redneck hillbilly uneducated rubes just need a number, and ask a simple question. I really thought the number would be exponentially smaller, and more manageable, something like a one in a million chance. How would one write this out without the scientific notation?
Steve Benen seems to like the number, “a lot.”
I don’t have time to work through the storm of numbers here, but I’d wager a large sum of money that meya is lying, either directly or by omission or misdirection.
It’s what she does. It’s all she does.
The fact that the leftoids are going hypergolic over this makes me think there’s something to it, though.
It’s entirely consonant with the Obama team’s background and previous behavior that this sort of political payback would come down the line. It’s the Chicago Way.
I don’t think Obama himself would have been this clueless, but I can easily imagine some lower-level “czar” type doing it. These people simply haven’t realize that they’re not in Chicago any more.
The solution here is for Chrysler and/or the Feds to release the criteria they used (I’ve lost track of who is pointing fingers at whom at the moment).
I don’t buy for a minute SFAG’s argument that the criteria are “proprietary” — not when Chrysler is operating as a branch of the Federal government (exceptions naturally apply for national security, but that’s not the case here).
Let’s play fill in the blank, lefties. Here’s an old gem from the Nixon aministration:
It’s not the _____, it’s the _______.
FWIW – I really enjoy reading you smart folks, especially when you are working something like this out. Sometimes y’all teach me bunches about the things that I didn’t even know that I don’t know.
Jeffersonian, no, I don’t think so, not yet. I haven’t seen this compiled anywhere yet.
You don’t have to cover it up if no one is looking.
#176: JD, I think most of the Chrysler investors have given up for now, although I’m sure there are going to be further lawsuits down the line. Last I heard some of the GM bondholders were still fighting.
Is this a great country or what?
bh – What part of that breakdown is it that you and Jeffersonian need?
SBP – I am pretty sure that Indiana (God bless their Hoosier souls) are still fighting the GM deal.
It’s hysterical the left refuses to admit the hyper partisanship of the current administration. This is the same administration that tried to move control of the census away from the commerce department to the white house. The chief of staff for this administration is the epitome of a political hatchetman. Rahm Emmanuel proclaimed the census was going to be partisanship on steroids. And, of course, that non partisan group known as Acorn is supposed to be heavily involved in the census.
Now, it appears that Chrysler dealers are getting shut down based on party donations, yet, the left is trying to claim there’s “nothing to see, it’s all a right wing fantasy.”
Perhaps there is nothing going on, however, based on past actions by the current administration, these dealership closings certainly deserve to be looked in to.
As an observation, I’m appalled we’re even having this conversation. Yet, the left continues to deny there’s anything wrong with what President Obama is doing.
My girl would like to put a movie on, so I gotta run.
If someone would go through every dealer in the full set and attribute Dem, Rep, other, (rather than a general overall number) then we could compare it to the subset and feel better about a test. Hopefully someone is doing that right now off of those two pdf’s and checking donations online.
bh – What part of that breakdown is it that you and Jeffersonian need?
We’d need to know:
# of Republican-associated dealerships closed
# of non-Republican-associated dealerships closed
# of Republican-associated dealerships not closed
# of non-Republican-associated dealerships not closed
It truly is remarkable that we are at the point where whether or not this is something that the government should be doing, or if they have the authority to do it, is simply no longer even considered. There are simply no boundaries any longer, and this can be applied to all of the big-ticket items still left on the plate, the ones that Teh One says “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
I thought you guys watched Fox.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/05/28/gop-bloggers-charge-obamas-auto-task-force-playing-politics-chrysler-dealer/?test=latestnews
The letter that I linked to in the Pub said that their franchise was being given to someone else. Has anything come up about other franchises being re-awarded?
you thought wrong. again.
okay, okay, I watch Red Eye, but really that’s not news.
If I could make a humble suggestion, splitting Dem into Dem(Obama) and Dem(other) might yield some interesting results. May be too difficult to gather, though. I’m just basing that on what I know of Chicago.
Hi Dan,
I ran it using all of Nate’s numbers. Assuming 3000 dealerships, 88% of them “Republican”, and 92% of the closed dealerships “Republican”, we run this in R:
phyper (60, 360, 2640, 750)
and get a probability of 3.671535e-05, or less than 9 in 250,000.
Calling that “not statistically significant” is an exercise in fantasy. (See here for all the details.)
I have seen the numbers only for the closed dealers, which was all R, less the one that donated $200 to Dems. Someone at gatewaypundit was working on the not-closed list. As I noted previously, what is also interesting, and even harder to quantify, are the ones where the Dem donor’s competitors were closed. Even more interesting were the cases where the Dem donor competitors were closed, and they got their licenses. But, those are just random coincidences.
When you beg the feds to take your company into foster care, the feds get to make some decisions. My understanding is that the feds said “come up with a plan to get in the black” and the plan Chrysler came up with involved closing dealerships. You act like Obama was looking at a stack of dealer brochures saying, “I love you… I love you NOT…”
ooooh, new talking point.
When you beg the feds to take your company into foster care, the feds get to make some decisions. My understanding is that the feds said “come up with a plan to get in the black†and the plan Chrysler came up with involved closing dealerships. You act like Obama was looking at a stack of dealer brochures saying, “I love you… I love you NOT…â€
No, he’s got people to crunch those numbers.
Oh, and was it Chrysler’s idea to buttfuck their secured bond holders?
Saamy – Why do you keep linking that? And why do you seem so invested in the nothing to see here idea? Why would we give a flying fuck about a random sample when people are looking at the whole picture? If partisan politics did not play a role, why don’t they just release the criteria used, rather than lying about whose decision it was? I know, silly questions.
You act like Obama was looking at a stack of dealer brochures saying, “I love you… I love you NOT…â€
Add Chicago politics to the seemingly endless list of subjects of which you are brutally ignorant.
I have seen the numbers only for the closed dealers, which was all R, less the one that donated $200 to Dems. Someone at gatewaypundit was working on the not-closed list. As I noted previously, what is also interesting, and even harder to quantify, are the ones where the Dem donor’s competitors were closed. Even more interesting were the cases where the Dem donor competitors were closed, and they got their licenses. But, those are just random coincidences.
Yeah, there might be confounding influences here. That said, Fox’s conclusions are without merit absent some true statistical test. I’d like to see a chi-square analysis done, possibly like I’ve set up above. I’m not drawing any conclusions until then.
Wow! I’m not a math major so I can’t say anything about the stats or numbers here, but our little friend mark said in #83
::Emphasis Mine::
Does mark not realize ALL the business that Ford is about to pick up since GM and Chrysler are going down the tubes?! Ford’s domestic competition just vanished, practically.
Oh wait, I’m a crazy capitalist. My opinion matters not. :P Carry on.
Yeah, Ford’s stock has nearly tripled since March, but I’d be wary when it has to start competing against Government Motors/American Leyland, who can draw on State subsidy to drive prices down.
I’ve said before, the Left operates as a criminal enterprise. A mob. Reward the loyal. As for the others, “Kill the chicken, and let the monkey watch”. Everyone will learn which palms to grease now.
The question as always with any mob is…
Cui Bono? Cui prodest? Cui malo?
Sammy – How many of these franchises were in bankruptcy and how many of them went to the Feds for a handout?
Jeffersonian – There is much confounding about this whole thing, both in the statistical way in which you used the word, and in the political and Constitutional ways this is being forced upon people.
Re: Greg Q above:
To verify, yep, if 60 Non-Rep is correct, I also get 3.67153461897387e-005.
Okay, if I don’t get downstairs and watch a movie right now, I will be disemboweled.
Great point. This is a fantastic issue for you to pour your resources into. On behalf of all Americans, I beg you, do not stop until you’ve absolutely uncovered every sordid detail of dealergate. Even if it takes forever. This could really bring Obama down, but not if you give up!
You’ve haven’t lost until you quit. Go get’em boys.
Something about a swordfish comes to mind every time Sammy posts its drivel. Good to know that you do not give a flying fuck about the Constitution, and that you can be safely added to the mock and scorn category.
As is usually the case with douchebags like Sammy, as pointed out above, what they refuse to discuss is every bit as telling as what they want to talk about.
But, in regards to Greg Q above: to be clear, Non-Rep does not equal Dem. I’d prefer to calc it as Dem and Non-Dem if we could get those numbers.
Okay, bye. If I post again it means I’m a terrible fiance and you should all heap scorn on me.
what movie?
B-moe, a Richmond Pearce Dodge dealership has apparently been revoked, and offered to a Whitten Bros Chrysler Jeep dealership on the same side of town. One strategem of the closings, if local reports are accurate, is to consolidate several “brands” under one roof.
Pearce keeps a profitable dealership with several Chrysler brands on my side of town that was not among the 789 closed.
Pearce has donated to Guliani – I don’t know and could not determine the political affiliation of anyone in the Whitten clan.
Ladies choice, Maggie. ‘Night all.
ut oh. That’s RTO’s favorite.
okay, not really , but sometimes he’s pleasantly surprised.
Sorry, where does the constitution say that dealers for bankrupt automakers get to keep their contracts?
#199
My understanding …
Is obviously lacking. Dishonest or disengenuous, either way you are a Left cult tool.
Sammy doesn’t understand property rights
good little statist there
Ok, I read the whole thing, and I still can’t find it.
Where does the constitution say that dealers for bankrupt automakers get to keep their contracts?
Sammy – Where in the Constitution does Baracky and Gattner derive the power to reward unions over bondholders, to force employment decisions on Boards, or to dictate to a private company how they will operate their business in the bankruptcy? This should be fascinating.
Where in the Constitution does it say the federal government gets to take over bankrupt auto companies?
Game, set, match motherfucker.
[…] Protein Wisdom: The Stats, Again [Dan Collins; UPDATED x2] […]
nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
try reading again, Sammy, WITH comprehension.
Not how it works. The Constitution is a lmitiation on federal powers. It also does not regulate to the level of the individual.
The correct question to ask is where is the authority in the Constitution that allows the federal government to require a corporation to restructure (much less in any particular way). If it’s not there, then they don’t have it and they may not do it lawfully.
That said, the 5th Amendment should be sufficient protection under either the due process clause or the takings clause, not to mention teh equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.
That is a very old antiquated patriarchal and euro-centric view of the evolving and living Constitution, Darleen.
RTO – The takings concept is one I have pondered all day. Presumably, the contracts had a value, and I would suspect that said value was not insignificant. How are they getting around that, especially in the cases where it was passed along to a competitor?
I swear it’s right next to the part about signing statements.
Deciding not to renew their contract is the same as seizing physical property? Read that carefully. To stay in operation from year to year, they need to be given a new contract (i.e. it’s not something any dealership currently has). Chrysler has elected to not give them one, which (I’m guessing) Chrysler has the right to do under it’s relationship with dealerships.
Unfortunately, you’re looking at this backwards, because of the way the damn MSM has framed this, no doubt.
The government isn’t killing dealerships. Chrysler was going bankrupt and all the dealerships were dead. The government deal resurrects some of those dealerships.
“try reading again, Sammy, WITH comprehension.”
I thought you “conservatives” wanted to let Chrysler and all its dealerships go under.
Change of heart?
Shorter Sammy: BOOOOOOSH!
You clearly know next to nothing about Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, which protect you from creditors for a limited period of time while under bankruptcy proceedings subject to the scrutiny of a bankruptcy judge.
Had Chrysler entered Chapter 11, it formulates a plan to exit bankruptcy and creditors get compensated (often pennies on the dollar) as determined by a judge following bankruptcy exit. This is different from Chapter 7 bankruptcy which results in liquidation of the company (and presumably its dealer network).
Conservatives advocated that GM and Chrysler should have entered into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-organize under bankruptcy protections. That would have saved taxpayers tens of billions of dollars (since they entered Chapter 11 anyway after billions in bailouts). Plus it would have had the added benefit of being…Constitutional. But hey, what do I know, I’ve only joined two companies in the midst of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and helped return them to solvency. And you’ve definitely heard of these companies.
But I’m arguing SO over your head right now you probably stopped reading two paragraphs ago. You are a supporter of O! after all which requires the suspension of thinking. And you certainly meet those requirements with flying colors.
My understanding of takings is that if the taking renders property valuless to the owner, then compensation for such takings are due, and takings can come in the form of regulation, not just siezure or confiscation.
The tobacco companies, for instance, would have had no compensation claim to make because of the requirements to post Surgeon General’s warnings–thier product still had a value, they simply were required to bear an increased cost burden to retool production to add the warnings. The next question, however, is whethter the Federal Government had the authority to issue such regulation. In fact, they did not. There is no Federal Police Power–that is the domain of the States (who could require such warnings) under a public health theory (an example of this is Oklahoma’s 3.2% alcohol content limit in beer sold from other than “Liquor Stores” and the labeling requirements it imposes).
Voiding the contracts certainly voids their value to the owner. Seems to me that they have a compensation claim to make, that is, if they don’t persue the unconstitutionality of the taking to begin with.
Wow, this is too easy, it really applies to all of these fools. To re-iterate my previous troll repellent, “You clearly know next to nothing about Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, which protect you from creditors for a limited period of time while under bankruptcy proceedings subject to the scrutiny of a bankruptcy judge.
Had Chrysler entered Chapter 11, it formulates a plan to exit bankruptcy and creditors get compensated (often pennies on the dollar) as determined by a judge following bankruptcy exit. This is different from Chapter 7 bankruptcy which results in liquidation of the company (and presumably its dealer network).
Conservatives advocated that GM and Chrysler should have entered into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and re-organize under bankruptcy protections. That would have saved taxpayers tens of billions of dollars (since they entered Chapter 11 anyway after billions in bailouts). Plus it would have had the added benefit of being…Constitutional. But hey, what do I know, I’ve only joined two companies in the midst of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and helped return them to solvency. And you’ve definitely heard of these companies.
But I’m arguing SO over your head right now you probably stopped reading two paragraphs ago. You are a supporter of O! after all which requires the suspension of thinking. And you certainly meet those requirements with flying colors.”
um, that’s not what they’re doing.
(bold is mine)
It is apparent, Sammy, as is almost any conversation with you, that you are either unwilling or unable to engage in anything remotely approaching good-faithed discussion. Your understanding, or lack thereof, is generally as deep as a dry puddle.
Look! Something shiny! Bush!!!!!
“But I’m arguing SO over your head right now”
It’s always fun to hear from the local drunken blowhard, Phil.
Keep spouting.
You’re inventing facts. That’s not what has happened.
Contracts that were in force, and would be through whatever their normal term would be (perhaps reviewed annually, but almost certanly not a one-year contract), were terminated. This is not a case of non-renewal.
Change of heart?</blockquote
I won’t argue with Phil, because I’ll readily admit he knows more about this than I do.
I will argue with RTO, however, as opting not to renew a contract is not the same as voiding (terminating) an existing contract. And in any case, the entity opting not to renew is Chrysler, not the government.
One question to Phil though, I thought GM said that chapter 11 wasn’t an option, and if the government didn’t save them, it was liquidation time. Do I have that wrong? If not, were they just claiming that as a negotiating tactic?
Teh Narrative is impervious to facts. Those are but speed bumps on the path to nirvana Teh One is leading us towards.
THAT IS NOT WHAT THEY ARE DOING. They are asking the bankruptcy court to ignore many laws and let them cancel dealer agreements, because it wasn’t happening fast enough otherwise.
Yes, GM did say this, and they were saying it because some of their customer research told them some consumers wouldn’t buy a car from a bankrupt company because the warrantees could be thrown out. How this makes the federal government’s purchase of GM constitutional…well, who the hell knows really? It’s the Obama Nation and we’re just living in it.
Of course, GM never researched if some consumers wouldn’t buy a car from a company owned by the federal government. Methinks this is a symptom of why such a company ends up in bankruptcy.
Oh lazy Web, I invoke thee.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=hdF&q=chrysler+dealer+contract+renew&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
I just love it when the Leftist trot out “it was not the government, it was Chrysler”, as though there is any functional difference at this time. After the strong-arming in the last few weeks, threats to investors, etc … one has to be willfully pig ignorant to think that Gattner and his task force were not involved.
Sammy, you have failed to keep up with events on this. Maggie has even provided you with a link to pertinent documetnation.
No kidding? We’re in agreement then. But this is NOT a case of non-renewal–that’s your invention. It IS a case of termination.
Chrysler made pleading in Federal court to be given permission to terminate those contracts. The court (unconstitutionally) granted that request. So tell me again who did it? After, of course, you quit making up stuff.
from page sixteen of my earlier link:
And which link supports any assertion you’ve made?
Perhaps Smamy conflates Chrysler with GM, who is allowing contracts to lapse according to some of the stories in the search link he posted.
Two different companies there, bud.
This is where the Leftists prove to be so fundamentally dishonest, when they try to distort, obfuscate, or simply lie about things that are fucking facts. Sammy readily admits that he does not know shit about this, yet proceeds to pop off as though he does. People with functioning grey matter would be embarassed. Leftists like this clown will simply move on to their next lie. Still have not seen where Barcky and Gattner are getting the Constitutional authority for this.
Do give Sammy some credit though. It took far too long, but eventually he did acknowledge this was his expertise. He’s listening and more importantly he’s learning something. The more he learns, the less likely he is to support this lawless administration.
At least in theory. Sammy could go all mavericky on us and continue on with Teh Stupid.
Sammy, pick a path. We’re told by our media betters that we need to “grow the tent”, and if you’re willing to listen, we’re willing to explain.
Worst movie night ever. Evah!
Sammy, as you feel you can hold forth on all subjects, consider learning about a few of them first. Right now you’re the overly eager kid sitting up front embarrassing himself.
Meya, likewise.
correction: was *not* his
Never mind … Their Constitutional authority usually boils down to “I won”.
“Sammy readily admits that he does not know shit about this, yet proceeds to pop off as though he does.”
Wouldn’t that apply just as well to the original post?
And to anyone else with a “squishy” college degree pretending they understand what they’re talking about?
Face it, this is now more embarrassing that the “Jamal Hussein” debacle for the “conservatives”.
What’s sad is… they don’t understand why everyone is laughing at them.
Props to Dan though for both figuring out meya’s odd view of things and then possibly refuting it. Who can say, really.
Me? I was left with a vague sense of relief that I’m not the one who has to play airplane with her afternoon pudding.
bh,
We watched Amadeus, director’s cut. Last night was Animal Crackers and the night before was Serenity.
So what was your movie?
If poon queefs in the forest, and nobody hears it, does it still beat off to pictures of David Hasselhoff?
It is nice that poon has quit with its dishonest charade where it tried to claim to be a conservative.
Geoff, you’ll laugh but it was Footloose. She took off early though. I shall name this weekend Redemption.
bh – Chicago, 12-13 JUL. Our turtle-lovin’ buddy will be up that way for work. We will be planning an evening or two of dining, etc …
Poon,
As someone who clearly demonstrated you don’t know the first thing about bankruptcy law, let alone the difference between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 bankruptcy law, yet still felt the need to opine on bankruptcy law as if you did you’d do yourself a big favor if you just shut the fark up before you get hit with another troll hammer.
Now, after you extract your head from the sand it’s buried in, are you not the slightest bit concerned that the head of that Obama task force is married to the head of the DNC fundraising committee?
And just why the hell is the federal government in control of a private auto manufacturer? And what’s the constitutional basis for this control?
Please let us know when you have some answers to those questions.
Toodles.
JD, as we’re talking July that could work. Just so you know, I hereby consider “etc” to possibly include the sacking of Rome.
Phil – You are being far more patient than they deserve. Mock and scorn.
Kevin Bacon, my wife likes him best in Tremors.
Our deal is I pick the movie but she can veto the choice. This is done because the video collection was mostly mine before we got together. We do the opposite on music as she had the best collection there. But we agree on most of it anyways.
BTW When we got together she worked in the Loop area and lived in Homewood.
How about we save the sacking of Rome for the next trip. We will just pillage Teh Loop the first time.
Geoffb – are you in Chicago too?
SW Michigan, Battle Creek area.
Would you be able to meet up with us in JUL?
We could probably swing a trip. We both miss seeing the Aquarium and the Museum of Science and Industry. Geeks are us.
Phil,
I decided to do a little research on my own.
Got a copy of the list of dealerships closing, opened up OpenSecrets.
First name I randomly selected from the list was Wade Walker, Walker Motors Inc. of Vermont…he donated to:
9/14/06 $500 Welch, Peter (D)
6/30/08 $250 Welch, Peter (D)
Oh dear.
There goes the narrative.
Geoff, tonight I learned to never make a funny comment about someone else’s iconic-movie-from-their-youth. It was funny though. Even if I’m the only person who’ll vouch for it.
JD, shit, I’m pretending we’re in Rome regardless. I hope this doesn’t change things but I’m not allowed south of river anymore.
Oh, missed that, yeah, Geoff, it’d be cool if you and your girl could make it too.
Re Footloose: I said, “No one told him it was a gay barn.” I’d say you had to be there but it didn’t play very well to the crowd either.
well. no, it’s a bit more, um, nuanced than “ONLY REPUB DEALERS ARE BEING GYPPED!”
but please, continue your “research”
What’s sad is… they don’t understand why everyone is laughing at them.
So if I have this straight, you give yourself the nom de blog “poon,” pretend to be a conservative and plant yourself here to make fun of the people that everyone else is laughing at. I suppose that’s what all the really smart and socially well-adjusted kids are doing these days.
bh – Then Lincoln Park had better brace itself.
poon – STFU. Don’t you have friends or family that care enough about you that they would stop you from embarassing yourself in public like this?
shut up, JD! poon has found one guy out of 789! THERE’S NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVEON!
I figure it would probably take some time to look up that many. Though I wonder if you could just ignore all the dealers that don’t sell all four lines. That is one of the criteria mentioned for “Project Genesis” decisions. (pg 91-92 of pdf)
still, I love “(c)other factors” hmmmmmm.
Maggie – The implications of “other factors” are prolly racist. Note how not one of these asshats has been able to lay out where they think Barcky and Gattner are deriving their authority from to do this.
Sounds good, JD.
bh, JD, email me at geoffb5- -at- -comcast- -dot- -net
“shut up, JD! poon has found one guy out of 789! THERE’S NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVEON! ”
The next 23 dealer names I selected made no political donation in the last 10 years.
So now I’m a zero for 24 looking for a Republican dealer who got dumped.
An honest person would say a majority of these people are apolitical.
I’d like to see the statistical gymnastics the “onservatives” are employing to try to make this a story.
an honest person would show his work.
I’d be interested in seeing a comparison of only the “full line” dealers and how they compare. but at this point, I may just conk out without any help for once after reading/skimming 133 pages of legalese.
An honest person would say a majority of these people are apolitical.
Yes, because everyone who has political views donates to a party.
BTW, how’s TrannyCrazyO, Pudge-O?
I got it Geoff. If JD has it too then maybe someone with access can delete the comment so his email isn’t out there.
Okay, good night the second.
“an honest person would show his work.”
SCHLOSSMANN, MICHAEL J MILWAUKEE, WI 53217 DODGE CITY/PRESIDENT/AUTO DEALER 10/16/07 $250 Feingold, Russ (D)
Somebody done made all you guys fools, or liars.
My guess is those “honest” folks who claim political bias here just threw out all the dealers who made no political contribution at all or donated only to the National Auto Dealers Assn.
Which looks to be about 90% of the dealers who are getting shut down.
Talk about bad science.
Talk about rock bottom.
Good night from me too. 3 am yow.
you don’t have to guess! you can check his work! chop! chop!
There’s also all kinds of linky goodness here
Well, not a pretty tale for the conspiracists, Maggie.
Of the 739 Chrysler Dealers being shut down:
574(78%) Made no political donations at all
99(13%) of them gave to Republican candidates only
66(9%) Gave only to NADA, only to Democrats, or a mix of Republicans and Democrats
13%, not much of a conspiracy.
Comment by Phil on 5/28 @ 11:06 pm #
But I’m arguing SO over your head right now you probably stopped reading two paragraphs ago. You are a supporter of O! after all which requires the suspension of thinking. And you certainly meet those requirements with flying colors.
Yours is some genius topical blabber of chap 11 and chap 7. No really, a mind like yours is needed on the bench. Do you know any language theory?
I donated to Barack Obama’s Presidential campaign. I donated to John McCain’s Presidential campaign.
I’m protected from the partisan political donation analytics.
bECauSE iTs aBoUT Teh DoNATiON (!!!!!11!!!)
Up for proving negatives, are we now? The constitution doesn’t authorize you to take a piss, drop the trash at the curb on Fridays, or rotate your tires. In fact, it doesn’t authorize Congress and the President to take stuff other people own. Hmmm.
Like I said Sammy, you shouldn’t be let out of doors with a vote. This level of ignorance, now practiced openly and widely, is dangerous. Does that concern you or does it not? If it does not concern you then you don’t know enough about the place to have any active role in its maintenance.
And thor, speaking of epic wrong, only you can prevent the regular rhetorical thumpings you take to the face, chest, head, neck, face, and head area every time you show up here. You were flattened again just yesterday like the fancy French crepe you are, you finanshul jeannieus.
Where’s Hans Blix when you need him? Here’s some weapons-grade st00pid!
Yeah I am so glad this guy doesn’t have a history of rewarding those who give him political donations. Oh wait…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=adfv4RHV3Kmk
“The constitution doesn’t authorize you to take a piss, drop the trash at the curb on Fridays, or rotate your tires. In fact, it doesn’t authorize Congress and the President to take stuff other people own.”
It does give congress the power to create rules for bankruptcy.
“If you admit no populations–i.e. regard each as an undifferentiated individual–then you are posing Meya’s problem, unless I don’t understand what she’s trying to say.”
I’m just delighted at how you picked the numbers you could grab. Nates %’ages were for folks who have donated to a party — leaving out the non-donors. So then you go and start calling folks dumbass and stupid with numbers that someone gave you for odds based on 1 obama contribution, which isn’t quite the same. Dumbass and stupid. Good work.
I don’t really see how foxnews.com got their numbers. Best we all ignore them, as they don’t fit our other numbers.
Good Sir, hitherto I have never disrespected you entirely out of spite. The day before yesterday I squashed you with my hairy buttocks only because the call of nature was strong; it was not meant to affront your reputation publicly nor to please my personal folly nor to indulge your appetite. Returning today my intention is to redeliver a few thrusts, as they say at Oxford, so that the intentionalists here are clear. Prepare yourself for a wide variety of pronounced moral condemnations, won’t you, as I’ll be making my usual modern pleas to all for greater effort at understanding your conventional, pedestrian pederast’s fallacies.
Ever Slightly Amused,
thor
You may have missed this, but we’re asking for them to release the information. If it were Congress, then it would be a matter of public record. Instead, we’ve got a Car Czar with significant connections to the finance wing of the Democratic Party who claims via Gibbs that Chrysler made those decisions internally, even when the deposed CEO of Chrysler suggests otherwise, and who has ad hoc powers, apparently, to shape the terms of a settlement that will benefit some parties a great deal at the great expense of others. Now, that’s an interesting story, and one that needs to be sorted out, meya. It’s also par for the course in the most ethical administration evah.
But you don’t want to know the answers.
But those who donated to Bernie Sanders have no bully in your narrative, Dan.
I feel most for them.
You’re complaining about the narrative? Why don’t you complain about the way that this has been handled?
“You may have missed this, but we’re asking for them to release the information. ”
Are you asking nicely? Don’t. Ask legally:
http://www.eff.org/issues/bloggers/legal/journalists/foia
I was thinking the other day how you said we were ENTITLED to this information, and it struck me, that while it’s nice and we ought to have an open government, it’s not really in our constitution. It’s not really one of our constitutional rights. It all depends on congress passing things like FOIA, which they can take away.
Wait a minute, meya. Were you or were you not arguing that Congress has the right to write bankruptcy law? Who’s actually “writing” the law? Do the owners whose properties are being taken, and sometimes awarded to others with no compensation have the right to an explanation of the criteria that were used? Who’s telling the truth: Chrysler, or Gibbs?
As you are probably aware, I’ve already called TARP, and they’ve told me that that’s an internal Chrysler matter. Considering that Chrysler has been turned into a public-government hobgoblin entity, that seems to me kind of . . . lazy. Somebody’s calling the shots, and somebody’s lying.
I don’t work in the car bidness, but from conversations I’ve had with people who do, there were two criteria used to determine which dealers were being shut down. One was whether or not they were a full-line (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) dealer, and the second was whether or not they were living up to their deal with Chrysler.
In this area, I know of one non-full line dealer (Dodge) that stayed open–because the guy sells a crap-load of cars. Because he also had a territory overlap with a Chrysler-Jeep store, I suspect it’ll probably play out that he eventually becomes a full-line store.
That’s great, Jim, but let’s see the work.
But their actual property wasn’t taken. Their property value declined significantly, that’s all. Business risk, market risk, bankruptcy risk, it’s what makes capitalism so great.
Chrysler owns the word.
Their actual property has been taken from them, thor. You go get me that formula now, and explain the rationale behind it. Consider the bondholders at GM while you do that.
No. It give Congress (and only Congress, who has not been involved) the responsibility to make uniform rules for bankruptcy.
Were this legislative action we’d be wandering back into bill of attainder territory, but this is just plain usurpation.
I guess what I’m getting at is that–at least in my geographical area–it really looks a lot more like a business decision than a political decision.
The dealers are independent business men and women, but they have agreements in place with the manufacturer, and it does cost the manufacturer money to support them.
Screwing the bondholders? That’s completely political. Mugabe-like, even.
#Comment by thor on 5/29 @ 1:47 am #
Please ignore the slack-jawed mouth-breather.
Thank you.
Considering the bondholders at GM are getting screwed, it seems not too suspicious, I think, to look into all of the TARP dealings with automotive. But there are some people who like to see contract law abrogated–for the children. By which I mean the UAW.
“It does give congress the power to create rules for bankruptcy.”
Which O! waved his magical “I WON!” wand and completely ignored.
Unconstitutionally.
“Were you or were you not arguing that Congress has the right to write bankruptcy law? ”
It’s just straight up in article I sec 8.
“Do the owners whose properties are being taken, and sometimes awarded to others with no compensation have the right to an explanation of the criteria that were used?”
In bankruptcy court? My guess is yes, though the FOIA doesn’t apply to courts. What you’re describing seems to be more like the process of discovery where litigants get to see what each other party has.
“As you are probably aware, I’ve already called TARP, and they’ve told me that that’s an internal Chrysler matter.”
So I have two more ideas for you. You can file a FOIA with the car czar or other agencies that might have documents, and ask about their communication with chrysler. You can try to convince a congressional office to get the GAO on this.
#Comment by JHoward on 5/29 @ 4:25 am #
Please ignore the boneheaded windbag.
Thank you.
He’s a bandwidth thief, btw.
I don’t think you can FOIA a dealer, though, Dan.
If that’s something that’s going to come out in court, meya, then it seems to me that plaintiffs are entitled (yes, that word again) to a preliminary injunction, yes?
Comment by Dan Collins on 5/29 @ 6:52 am #
Please ignore the elbow licking retard.
Thank you.
He’s a bandwidth thief, btw.
meya reduces every thread, point, and conversation to it’s most petty, partisan, and misleading conclusion. I’d love to hear meya wax eloquent on the consistent point of the Constitution instead of how to avoid it at every turn that serves whatever bent aim s/he/it has. Anybody else?
You don’t see how a preliminary injunction applies to an extra-constitutional taking of property that hasn’t been fully explained? Wow.
Dan, on a good day there are hundreds of corporate bankruptcies in process and there have been many thousands and thousands prior. The many times I’ve witnessed this process through the financial news there’s always people shaking their fists and heads loudly declaring such common thoughts as “but why me” every time. Debtors, suppliers, workers, franchisees, management, etc.., everyone donates some blood.
I tend to believe that the process itself is complicated and large enough that the odds of it being corrupted by the motivation to reward those who’ve made random $250-dollar political donations an extremely slim one. Prove me wrong. Earn a Pulitzer.
Maybe meya can comment on the part here that provides for the present monetary system and when it fails, which it has, the part where arbitrary and decidedly non-uniform collections and actions occur, in this case more or less at the behest of one branch of government.
Enough of you. Can’t you find a sailor boy to toss salad with? Press on. Loiter by the docks. Go away from here.
Who heads up the automotive task force? Steven Rattner, who, earlier this spring, reportedly berated the head of a non-TARP Chrysler hedge fund with this outburst:
Business as usual, right, thor?
Hey, look! A human face! (at about 7:00)
#321 completely avoids the point of the excerpt you replied to in it, meya.
What a surprise. But, as Sammy was schooled and as you selectively allude, it’s not what’s not enumerated that counts, it’s what’s enumerated. You of all people know this and instead you’d give Congress the power to do whatever you like. Except for when you don’t like it.
Some consistency would be a start. Some respect for the aims of that damn old parchment would be a miracle.
meya reduces every thread, point, and conversation to it’s most petty, partisan, and misleading conclusion.
I think I’m finally starting to figure SFAG out.
It’s not us she’s trying to convince. It’s herself.
Aggressive stupidity or willfully obtuse? I ask the question, you decide.
Then again, there’s that awkward Equal Protection Clause. Just can’t wait for that Cyber Czar.
the behind the scenes action comes down to brass knuckle threats sometime, Dan (shocker). And I don’t buy the Daffy Duck sounding cries of “Constitoothon” from the paid for legal whores employed to knife an extra nickel out of the deal altruistic and scholarly legal work.
This turn of Capitalism is brutal threats, long cold stares, pounding fists, finger pointing, warnings of dire consequence, under the table kicks, cheap tricks, heavy hands, etc.., in other words it’s the all for nothing last word phase of bankruptcy negotiations. It ain’t never totally fair. Welcome to Jamrock.
It does give congress the power to create rules for bankruptcy.
1) “Congress” had nothing to do with the “rules” for choosing the dealers that were shut down, liebot.
2) Where can I find the “rules” that were used to decide which dealers would get the ax? Or are you arguing that “Congress” (i.e., some partisan hack appointed by the executive branch) has the right to make “rules” which are kept secret?
Again: who do you think you’re fooling other than yourself?
This is not a “turn of Capitalism,” thor. This is a turn of Fascism.
Dan – Gattner’s calm and level-headed statement to those people is exactly how the Left expects their government to be run. Hence the complete and total lack of concern for what the government is doing. I am sure he had nothing to do with Chrysler, nothing. What experience in the auto industry did he have?
What does Congress’ ability to write bankruptcy laws have to do with this?
Oh bullshit. Go and join meya in that part of thought that promotes convention over rights and property — any moron can do that, most do, and you just proved it. You’re in the wrong thread, if not the wrong reality.
Dan’s questioning where the rights went and all you can do is slather your narrow perspective all over the query.
Some would say they’re one and the same. Not me, but some.
Then define each, thor. Go on.
As of today you still have the right to cry, JHo. In the work camps I think they take that right away from you. Prepare to dry your tears.
In case you missed my numbers from last night, Dan:
Of the 739 Chrysler Dealers being shut down:
574(78%) Made no political donations at all
99(13%) Gave to Republican candidates only
66(9%) Gave only to NADA, only to Democrats, or a mix of Republicans and Democrats
Can you point out the political conspiracy here?
No?
Neither can any other sane person.
More human face, at about 33:00, a GM Bondholder.
We all have to share the pain, poon:
Only some, more than others. Eight local competitors are being closed. What lucky guys. See, you don’t want this information. You think this is swell.
Outta town. Apologize profusely if this is a rerun. Some of it is a rerun:
It looks to non-Obama voters that non-Obama dealerships were targeted for closing while Obama dealerships were spared.
Obama voters:
can’t afford a new car
think Obama is going to buy them a new car
can’t pass the driving test
non-Obama voters:
buy all the new cars
will never buy a new GM or Fiatsler again *or*
will help non-Obama dealers get rid of their inventory Obama stuck them with
You won Obama, how does our disposable income not going to your dealer lackeys taste?
“#
Comment by thor on 5/29 @ 7:15 am #
Comment by N. O’Brain on 5/29 @ 7:00 am #
Please ignore the elbow licking retard.
Thank you.
He’s a bandwidth thief, btw.
Enough of you. Can’t you find a sailor boy to toss salad with? Press on. Loiter by the docks. Go away from here.”
Fuck you, you boy molesting retard.
Ignore is now back ON.
Why are ya’ll arguing with the morons? Ignore Sammy, meya, and thor — you’re not going to convince them, and, frankly, they’re the type that caused this problem. They’re the leeches living off the productive people. You don’t argue with leeches.
Why would anybody find it strange that democrat supporting dealers are favored over republican ones when Chrysler is being run from the Whitehouse. We’re just experienceing the democrats version of ‘fair’.
But thor’s a capitalist, Rob, the veritable salt of the productive earth. thor funds vast megaworks and he does so out of the same magnanimous heart that voted Socialist.
thor is actually Soros and he does fine literature (and fine eastern bloc totty). thor was right to tell me to dry my eyes, for like his O-twin, thor is a thing of beauty.
Calm yourself, N. O’Brain. thor is word, yo, and He & O! dwell among us.
I’m like a butterfly.
[…] 1: Dan Collins says: Statistics that are available suggest that Chrysler auto dealers donated 76% Republican and 24% […]
I think you mean mariposa (definition 2).
You’ve been picking up a bit of Spanish there in Florida, I see.
How’s that GM stock doing?
How about those muni bonds you were flogging? Oh, right.
seeing as how you don’t even have the right number of dealers being closed, color me skeptical.
“#Comment by thor on 5/29 @ 8:15 am #
I’m like a butterfly.”
Butterflys are pedophiles?
Like with meya, if poon told me the sky was blue, I would require independent verification from at least 3 parties.
If you’re going to be so insolent to me, JHo, shouldn’t you take that bottled up anger to the street? I’ve heard of there’s occasional gatherings of white angry males who do tea parties from the street curb. They hold signs that, for some, must have taken a lifetime to compose. Some expose themselves publicly while urinating in the street and often do so while breaking into cries and chants of a Nation that done them wrong [SIC]. No need to channel your unhappiness solely toward me. Share, expose, groan, chant, grimace, tremble, toss chunks of barn muck, hold a sign and tell off a whole nation of scum that did you wrong. Tea party shout out to me with a tortured cripple’s lifted voice!
You mean the one that was at $3.62 when thor the finanshul jeenyus told us it would be skyrocketing? The one that’s currently at $0.91? That one?
NO Brain — for someone who lectures people to ignore the moron, you sure as hell waste a lot of time responding to him.
Did the Chiclet chewing P-blo ever figure out that Fiat doesn’t own Chrysler or is he too occupied making up beany little lies and taunts?
W-Street JeeeeNiUS! He’s here. Gonna tell us about the S.E.C., when he’s done huffing paint, that is.
About that victim thing, thor, you should vote Socialist.
Hahahahaha.
I could use more chips and another cervesa, Pablo.
I actually do like Bernie Sanders, JHo. He’s got some fire in his belly.
Feel free to quote me saying that, ya mud eating bug fucker.
Then you should stop recommending stocks that drop 75% in the following 60 days. Or, next time you get locked up, do it in Mexico.
Don’t forget to confess to falsifying the truth at mass, P-blo. Extra lashes in hell if you don’t.
thor, if you’re going to be so insolent I’m afraid I’ll be forced to name-call you, question your social profile, and ridicule your bloodline, ya toe-chewing crack-addled offspring of uneducated cousins.
Do you ever vote that dysfunction, thor? My good man.
An electile dysfunction?
#Comment by Rob Crawford on 5/29 @ 8:44 am #
I’m not responding to him, I’m asking all the other posters here to ignore him.
And it’ll never stop until the cocksucking bandwidth thief leaves Jeff’s site permanently.
Hard to fully understand your question, JHo.
Are speaking of Sanders? He’s Dan’s man, no? Really think Sanders is a trip, actually, a breath of fresh air.
“seeing as how you don’t even have the right number of dealers being closed, color me skeptical.”
Funny, Maggie.
More like: “I and all my fellow ‘conservatives’ now look like fools with this, so I’m going to ignore any data that runs contrary to Dan’s absurd claims, and rely on the nuttiest, most partisan hacks to get all my truth(er) from.”
Ignore the cocksucking bandwidth thief and the amount of bandwidth he thieves will be cut in half.
M’kay?
“Nekogda!”
I ought to drag you through the sewers of Moscow and let the Soviet vets take it out on ya, you disgusting disgrace.
Long Live Marx, Foucault, Kristeva! Voltaire too!
Funny, Maggie.
Piss off, Pudge-O.
This is a weekday. Shouldn’t you be out looking for a job?
Maybe I’ll look for a job as a “conservative” blogger/statistician SBP
I know the hours are good, and you can just make stuff up, no need to leave your basement, how’s the pay?
A couple of points:
(1) There’s definitely a right way to do this analysis, and as several people (including me) have pointed out in this and earlier threads, it’s to take the “official” explanation’s factors, add an indicator variable for political contributions, and regress a closure indicator on these using logit. As I said earlier, I would also recommend recording the FEC data in such a way as to permit recoding of the contributions indicator variable(s) various ways — any R, any D, Obama, any Obama general election opponent, any Obama primary or general opponent, etc. You might also keep the contributions as continuous. You’d then see, notwithstanding statistical control for the “official” story, whether politics maintained any significant explanatory power.
(2) Dan asked a balls-urns question and I answered it (correctly, I hope). But if we want to stick to the balls-urns approach, a couple of things must be understood — first, no one really believes the null here is random selection, since we know there was some systematic selection of dealers (either the official one or something more untoward). Second, we need to make sure the numbers are what we think they are (look at a hypergeometric some time and you’ll understand why) — one thing I’m very interested in is the frequency with which Chrysler dealers make any political contributions. It makes more sense to focus just on the pattern of closures of politically active dealers, I think.
care to explain why you have 739 instead of 789?
I wonder once Fiat starts selling here if they’ll be offering the mini Calvino. Incredible efficiency.
All I know is that I still can’t fly directly to Havana yet. Obama promised!
Maggie is a bitter Obama birth certificate truther.
Maybe I’ll look for a job
Snicker. When pigs grow wings, liebot.
Make sure he urns his balls, then.
“care to explain why you have 739 instead of 789”
Maybe because the link you sent me was missing 4 out of 30 pages of data, Maggie?
Even so, the claim that these dealers were closed down on the basis of how much money they’ve donated to Republicans is rendered absurd by the fact that 80% of the dealers in question have made zero political contributions in the past 18 years.
Think about it.
aaaaw, I didn’t realize you can’t do research on your own. sorry.
by the fact that 80% of the dealers in question have made zero political contributions
I haven’t made any political contributions.
Therefore I have no political views.
Is that what you’re saying, liebot?
How’s the “wife”, BTW?
Funny that many leftists don’t believe in miracles.
Only progressives can deem what’s fair. They have a czar of miracles. Righteousness as recklessness.
Recklessness as righteousness.
“I haven’t made any political contributions.”
Color me surprised, SBP.
So now you’re crediting Obama with using psychic powers to determine which dealers to shut down?
Or are you just trying to move the goalposts as usual?
The original claim was these dealers were being shut down based on their political contributions, remember?
It was just a few days ago.
No?
Must be nice to be able to forget any embarrassing facts so quickly and thoroughly.
FTFY
The original claim was these dealers were being shut down based on their political contributions, remember?
The fact that many dealers didn’t make any contributions doesn’t have any direct bearing on whether the contributions of those that did are a statistically significant explanatory factor for closures. It makes the minimum detectable effect larger, but doesn’t invalidate the question.
So, do we need to have three colors of balls? Black, white and grey (for unknown)?
“but doesn’t invalidate the question.”
Yes it does, “Dr” Steve.
You’ll be able to take the top off while it’s running.
Or threaten to.
Surely poon must be that balloon fence troll.
Sorry, poon, but DrSteve is correct. And this is simply more evidence that you don’t want any analysis.
So, do we need to have three colors of balls? Black, white and grey (for unknown)?
No, we remove the non-contributing dealers (the grey balls) from the urn and just look at the white and black in our problem.
Comment by poon on 5/29 @ 10:06 am
You’re plainly incorrect. You can formulate the logistic regression exactly the way I specified even if there are large numbers of dealers who didn’t contribute. You would have a D-contribution indicator and an R-contribution indicator, for example, and for many dealers these would both be 0s. Or you could keep the variables continuous and for non-contributing dealers these would be 0s. There’s nothing problematic about that at all.
And since your pattern here seems to be to troll rather than to contribute to discussions, this is the last interaction I’m having with you.
How about adding a KY-contribution indicator to pattern DrSteve’s interactions.
So now you’re crediting Obama with using psychic powers to determine which dealers to shut down?
No. I’m crediting you with being a pig-ignorant liar.
A clumsy one.
“And this is simply more evidence that you don’t want any analysis.”
An affirmation, Dan?
A huge majority of the dealers made no political contributions.
Of the few shut down dealers who did make political contributions, they were shut down exactly in proportion with the Republican/Democratic contribution ratio of all the nation’s auto dealers as a whole.
Perhaps you could delve into your expert knowledge of literature to explain to us what, exactly, is nefarious about these numbers?
Comment by thor on 5/29 @ 10:24 am
I stopped using it on account of your Mom’s allergy. Didn’t she tell you?
Show your work, poon.
Perhaps you could delve into your expert knowledge of literature
Or perhaps you could delve into your expert knowledge of…well…nothing at all and get off your ass and get a job. I’m sure MickeyD’s is hiring. They always are.
Remember, you have a “wife” to support now, PudgeO.
“Show your work, poon.”
I posted it above, Dan.
But this is America.
The burden of proof is on the accuser.
So far, I haven’t seen any proof at all presented that backs up your claim.
Please list the Republican dealers you claim were shut down for political reasons.
I posted it above, Dan.
Liar.
They are still trying to use donation rates from all auto dealers nationwide as opposed to actually using the figures from the actual dealers involved, as it is more convenient for Teh Narrative.
Plus, poon is a lying cooze of the highest order.
You haven’t shown your work. You’ve posted what you allege is data and say that the conclusion is self-evident. You don’t want to have to show any evidence to support your claim. And in this case, given what’s gone on with the GM bondholders, I don’t think that the Automotive Task Force deserves any presumption of impartiality.
I’m sure that it’s entirely coincidental that RLJ-McLarty-Landers benefitted so disproportionately. Perhaps it would be safer to say that some of the decisions seem designed to benefit democratic donors, and that any damage done to others is purely coincidental to that.
Dan @ 406 is spot on.
I don’t think you understand. That smattering of characters on your screen (comment #290) is poon’s work, in entirety.
In the case of bankruptcy bond holders get wailed on and stockholders get wiped out. That’s par for the course in restructuring.
If GM bonds are held in managed accounts then they’re owned in part by many investors, Repub and Dem alike.
To assign Dem or Repub ownership to a speculative investments and then tie that to political motive during debt reduction negotiations during or pre-bankruptcy seems as odd as conspiratorial, forgiving the fact that persons often cast votes for candidates of both parties during the same election cycle, a senator that’s a Dem and a Repub for president as an example.
UAW made secured creditors at cost to whom, thor?
Dan,
This is your credibility on the line here, not the Automotive Task Forces’.
Or do you feel that pushing an accusation you know to be false is a morally neutral undertaking?
False witness and all that.
You’re a liar, poon. You have proved nothing. Let us take a look at it from another direction: have the contributors to Democrats benefitted disproportionately from the closure and consolidation?
What’s #409 got to do with throwing Repub businesspeople to the curb? Make a pronouncement — assertively, if you please, you great hunk of burning reason, you — about what you had for breakfast, thor. Go on.
Think poon fence boy, Dan. Or palphie.
Workers have power, Dan. If worker’s wages are based on a contract and then they agree to lower those wages they’re entitled to ask for additional equity or a stronger debt position in the newly restructured company. I hate to break the news to you but there are successful American companies out there where the workers are the largest shareholder. Many are compensated in stock, ESOPs and other types of bonus plans.
I’m sorry, Dan, but workers are often motivated by their self-interests, Adam Smith, cough cough, as is management. There is nothing inherently wrong or evil about self-interest, is there? How is Warren Buffet is saluted for his successful wealth accumulation yet a worker a GM crapped and spit on because he wants the same thing Warren Buffet desires, namely, money. Warren uses every tool he has to get the best deal before he makes a direct investment, why wouldn’t the UAW do the same for the benefit of the workers?
Unions are good people.
I’m sorry, but overturning contract law and dispossessing people of their property to give to others isn’t negotiation, but extortion. This “redistributive justice” is fascism
Wondering how poon is copncluding who did and did not make contributions.
The FEC does not require contributors to identify employment/employer. That data, when it is present, isn’t standardized in any way. The various databses that are available for public access are not complete…..
For the poons among us asserting
thor’s breakfastno motive, this kinda helps fills that part in, now doesn’t it?Looks like we have about half the problem solved, and that assumes the hard numbers don’t support the theory.
Oh. They do? Oh darn.
Every chap 11 it’s done, Dan.
And yet, without understanding or admitting this obviousness, one of the two, certain of the Republican party wants to be stewards of our economy, as in positions of political power. This is what I don’t understand.
Either you are similar to the honarable Barney Frank and John Corzine and you know your fuckin’ shit, or you don’t. Either learn econ or walk, Repubs, don’t beg for something out of entitlement, or whatever your reason be.
The Repubs, outside of Sen. Shelby and a few others, have no real nuts and bolt econ guys to speak for them. And then when a educated Repub such as Alan Greenspan speaks you don’t listen, instead you shout RINO when he says something you don’t want to hear.
I’m sorry but for right now the Dems are the smartest kids in the room. The most visible Repubs, sadly that’d be Rush, are damn near economic retards. Sadder still is the fact this has been a mostly Repub engineered financial disaster.
Hanky, anyone?
What you’re saying, thor, is that there’s no such thing as a secured creditor, except as that’s redefined by the state ex post facto, and you seem perfectly okay with that.
Cui Bono, Cui malo.
American capitalism’s model will change. Accept it. The old model collapsed. Accept it.
This is about winning in the world economy, not flag-pin politics and home team hysteria.
Some of our industry may have to be managed with private/public influence to increase efficiency. We are a mature and consolidated economy, not the old organic growth economy of even 30-years ago.
The Honorable Barney Frank’s shit, BTW, wasn’t so knowledgeable when it came to Fannie/Freddie or the prostitution ring run out of his home, was it?
No, it’s not about home-team hysteria. It’s about the rule of law.
Bush! Fascist! Emergency powers!
“You’re a liar, poon.”
Where am I lying, Dan?
What have you “proved” with all the chicken scratching you are clueless about you continue to post on this matter?
I’d say it’s time to move the goalposts or change the subject.
Laws change.
Certainly increased efficiency at fuckin’ Freddie and Fannie . . . if’n you were a board member.
Unions are not people; unions are composed of people. I’d guess that said people are just about the usual mix of decency you’d see in the remainder of the populace. Meaning, at least half of them want something they haven’t and don’t want to earn.
Aside from that, mostly decent.
poon, either prove with your statistics that Democrat donors weren’t disproportionately protected and remunerated, or ask for more information.
All of #442 is hogwash and you know it, thor. All of it.
AN empty assertion, thor’s breakfast. Do tell more when you can flesh out the property, rights, and capitalization thingies.
Team Obama hates it some winning in the world economy, thor’s lunch. Or you can cite some evidence that’s untrue.
We’re bankrupt, thor’s biscuits. Explain how a being couple hundred trillion dollars upside down comes about in “mature and consolidated economies” renown to have created great historical wealth and prosperity.
Do you ever even consider that question? Just how did we come to this point, thor? Wise up, and cut the willful blindness and lying bullshit.
Laws change, that is true. But there are constitutional provisions for how that’s meant to happen, and if you don’t think that it is a dangerous step to disdain those provisions, anything goes. Is that how you want it?
Someone’s trying really, really hard to change the subject, when a subject change is as close as the keystrokes e-s-c-h-a-t-o-n-b-l-o-g-.-c-o-m. Possibly closer.
Lemme see, let’s do the math: at least five times as many keystrokes devoted to changing the subject as to substantiating his point, or going elsewhere. Something does not compute.
He’s stealing shit. General Motors is a loser white trash corporation and under new ownership by a dirty socialist thug piece of shit president and his pansy autoworker thugs, it’ll still be a loser white trash corporation what makes laughable shit cars. You’ll never see Barack Obama’s skeezy wife’s ass in an Aveo at Target. This is because she thinks her skeezy ass is too good for a piece of shit dirty socialist car. This is the essential paradox of Barack Obama’s America. Even he doesn’t want to live in the third world dirty socialist backwater he’s fashioning of our once-great little country.
If you watched CNBC yesterday before the open, Dan, Barney Frank took every fastball thrown at him and his answers were more detailed and cogent than any politician’s today. He looks to be working harder than any Repub out there, and like I said Shelby isn’t without good knowledge, but he’s not as studied as Frank. Corzine is someone with excellent knowledge as well.
My advice to Repubs would be to turn the partisanship down and turn-off Limbaugh and others, who seem to be in it to garnish attention, and listen to those in your party who are hard-wired into the econ and the markets. We are on a slippery slope of the non-lit theory reference-type, economically speaking.
Offer solutions to reverse wage stagflation and wage deflation and to create domestic job growth. Do that and you’ll win elections. Keep babbling about who is a racist or who pals around with terrorists and you’ll have no seat at the table of power. The whole point of a political party is to win elections, by the way, at least that’s my impression.
As an entity destructive of vast sums of capital it is exceedingly hard to compete with GM in the entire history of the world. And they are not done yet. It sounds as if another $40B or so is already in the pipeline. That it continues to advance in this endeavor is nothing short of astounding, really.
“poon, either prove with your statistics that Democrat donors weren’t disproportionately protected and remunerated, or ask for more information.”
Dan,
Not to go all Godwin on you, but that’s like saying: “Prove the Nazi’s didn’t carry out the Holocaust just to cover up the murder of a single Jew.”
I can’t prove it, but your claim is just as absurd on the surface given the available data.
Hiding behind partisan hacks with a slim grasp of statistical analysis doesn’t make your lie any less of a sin.
Is it an end justifies the means kind of thing with you?
Or is this kind of crap all you “conservatives” have left?
I’m sorry, but I cannot see how quadrupling the national debt on harebrained schemes that will produce no jobs and depress market innovation can possibly be called making us competitive in the global economy.
Fail
poon, you are determined not to see anything. Your information is parsed in such a way as not to make it possible. It really is incumbent upon TARP and Chrysler to release the criteria. Otherwise, it seems odd that some major Democratic donors should benefit as much as they do, especially if you conclude that that number represents 10% or less of the sample, and especially when Rattner’s wife is the former Chairwoman of Finance for the Democratic Party.
Otherwise, I am certainly justified in raising suspicion, given the context. You can’t even tell me who’s in charge of making those decisions. I’d like to know. Wouldn’t you?
And it’s funny that you should accuse me of “ends justify the means” given what we know has been going on at GM. Is there a reason that they’ve not disclosed who their 1100 dealership closings will be, when they’re already determined? Could it be that they’re taking a wait and see whether the MSM reports it attitude?
Dan,
Nobody in the car business is making money these days.
Your accusations are absurd.
The only question is are you aware of that fact or not?
Dear Prof Poon,
I’m afraid I missed the test statistic and corresponding p value from your analysis above. Could you kindly refresh my memory? Oh, and weren’t your data percentages? Will you be performing appropriate transformations to them, or will you be using a non-parametric test?
No, the fact is that you’re disingenuous. For some reason, those car dealership people want to go right on dealing cars.
It’s epidemic, Dan. thor’s dog’s dinner, for example, is plainly and unabashedly determined not to see his boy using this crisis of foolhardy monetary systems coming home to roost in order to go nationalist on our ass. So thor, like poon, makes baldfaced assertions and issues snark instead.
thor’s amounts to variants on his weakass experiences in, oh I don’t know, Texas pump handles or the drag settings on his shit $22.95 Walmart baitcaster or the mucilage dripping down his cheeks after subjecting himself to another afternoon of moldy revolutionary wankering once scribed by dead misfits in, appropriately, their own absinthe-addled very early twenties. Probably in the very early twenties.
Neither they nor the reality-inoculated left give a shit how things are. They only care how things can be painted. It’s intellectual narcissism.
Nice mumbo-jumbo, silver.
Explain how when 80% of the closed dealers made no political contributions, the evil Democrats used political donations to decide which dealerships to close.
I’m sure Dan and his cronies sure would appreciate you pulling their butts out of the fire.
“For some reason, those car dealership people want to go right on dealing cars.”
Then I guess they’re extremely grateful to the Democrats for passing the auto bailout, right, Dan?
“Comment by thor on 5/29 @ 11:54 am #”
Oooo, a paean to Bawney Fwank.
You want to suck his dick, whore?
Nobody in the car business is making money these days.
Liar.
Profits are down sharply across the board, but some companies are still on the profit side of the equation.
For example, profits at Hyundai, the world’s second largest automaker, are down 42.7%.
Hint: “smaller profit” and “loss” are two different things, liebot.
Mumbo jumbo? I was under the impression we were discussing analysis of data using appropriate statistical tests. Please lay out your approach, but be gentle – I am not as young and nimble as I once was.
Explain how when 80% of the closed dealers made no political contributions
I’d rather simply point out that you’re a serial liar and move on, PudgeO.
You really should be out looking for a job. I mean, your Dad isn’t going to support you forever, is he?
poon, I’m sure that RJL and the criminal enterprise known as Dealmaker Autos are thrilled at their new expanded territories.
Explain how when 80% of the closed dealers made no political contributions
Well, let’s see…
“He’s losing us money – gone! He’s losing us money – gone! He’s losing us money – gone! He’s losing us money – gone! He’s a big Republican donor and competes with McClarty’s dealerships – gone! He’s losing us money – gone! He’s losing us money – gone!…”
Moron.
Wrong. No one is making as much as they’re accustomed to making, but numerous car companies are making money in America. No UAW companies are making money, though.
Indeed. And now that you are….?
Sammy waves the white flag.
You guys are right. I had thought it was only failure to renew, not canceling existing contracts. I’ll chime on with even more:
I find it interesting that Obama gave a long speech on torture where he made two big points, both of which I completely agree with.
1. Values aren’t something you adhere to when times are easy. They’re something you turn to when times get tough.
2. Taking shortcuts leads to bigger problems.
And yet, this financial crisis has been handled by shortcut after shortcut, starting with the bailout of Goldman Sachs, and continuing to this day with stimulus, nationalization, and bailouts. Many of which are packaged in the form of – if we don’t act right this second, it will be too late.
Now I’m not the kind that argues for zero government intervention. Yes, the free market (which is actually a product of regulation) will correct itself, but the free market is an amoral complex system. It has no problem with a correction that involves humanity huddling around burn barrels and going on rat hunting patrols.
The question is, what’s the right intervention.
Pilots are taught to do something very counter intuitive. When the aircraft engines, they’re taught to get the nose down and pointed towards the ground. A stall is vastly worse than losing altitude, since losing altitude is absolutely inevitable.
I feel like as the economic engines have lost power, the government has pulled the stick farther and farther back in an effort to lose no altitude. The stall light is flashing. What now?
Correction: When the aircraft engines cut out, they’re taught to get the nose down and pointed towards the ground.
The World’s second largest? Don’t think so, Prof. Peddles.
I guess that makes you a L I A R! And a big fat L I E B O T!
Maybe since you can’t afford a car you don’t know much about the industry.
This is very insightful about the white trash auto worker company thinger. Haven’t heard about “lemon laws” as a factor of the decline, but I haven’t been reading very voraciously.
“Offer solutions to reverse wage stagflation and wage deflation and to create domestic job growth.”
thor,
Cut massive government spending, especially on the entitlements-now. And, cut the corporate and capital gains tax rates, of which the former is the highest in the world.
The wage stagflation you point to is part of the mythic reality of social injustice that the left in this country clings to bitterly. The facts are that a middle class family in America that makes between 50K to 75K annually enjoys much better buying power than that same family did 30 years ago. In fact, the do-gooder crusader Jon Stossel debunked the whole gap between rich and poor getting wider meme a few months ago, and includes it as a part of his book “Myths, Lies, and Outright Stupidity”.
Any task pays what the market demands for it…
Those who invest little time and energy in training and educationg themselves should not expect to enjoy the same wages as thise who do…
As automation increasingly eliminates the amount of manpower required for a given task, workers should expect that the skill not be as much in demand as before…
Only where government gets involved, often in a detrimental way, do obsolete skills, and those of little use get paid premium wages for. A corollary would be that only where government gets involved do industries unnecessarily employ more workers than they need; at the expense of their bottom line…
Cut taxes, cut spending, encourage business creation and you’ll see more full employment and better wages. But don’t expect workers with little, rudimentary, or low skill levels to enjoy the same pay or benefits as skilled or professional workers…
And this comes from someone who spent more than a summer internship as a blue collar worker…
Sammy,
Nice try on the aircraft stall analogy, but you mangled it a bit…
But you are orrect in saying that the ship is losing airspeed, the stall horn is blaring, and the government is continuing to pull back on the stick…
What should have happened was to allow many of these large banks and businesses, many of which may become economic zombies anyway, to simply file bankruptcy in the first place, and save the taxpayers money and political anguish over the bailouts…
“poon, I’m sure that RJL and the criminal enterprise known as Dealmaker Autos are thrilled at their new expanded territories.”
A desperate attempt to move the goalposts, Dan?
When you’re in a hole…
I’m sorry, Bob, but you’re wrong. The increased buying has come at a price. The increased imports which have increased buying power have cost us millions of domestic manufacturing jobs and increased our current account deficit to the point our currency and debt are being financed overseas.
Lowering taxes, you say? Income taxes are lower than they’ve been in a generation but along with these low taxes stimulating the economy the Republican administration’s spending increases and fancy for foreign military adventures there to have created a – Hold on to your cowboy hat – Budget Deficit.
There’s no room to lower taxes. No fiscal conservative would dare suggest such folly. And our corporations enjoy more loopholes than most foreign companies so their effective tax rate isn’t quite what you’re touting, now is it?
Lower taxes does not create jobs. That’s a Reagan era lie. How in the fuck could lower taxes automatically create jobs? What theoretical silliness. If taxes were too high, maybe lower taxes would alleviate the overburdened, but currently taxes are not too high, no fool would state such unless they didn’t know any better.
This is why our economy collapsed. Cliche-driven econ policy.
Oh you’re gonna get higher taxes, pal, and a whole lot more regulation. Get straight with reality. The days of unchecked speculation – on the tax-payer’s dime no less – and give me everything for free (I don’t want to pay taxes) behind the backdrop of silly lies that that’s the way to create jobs are over. The reality learning curve starts now. Including if you want to wage war you’re going to have to pay for it. Booooosh econ fantasies are a thing of the past.
poon,
Moving goalposts is a technique that you folks on the port side of the political spectrum have elevated to a high art form…
Plenty of it during the last election cycle in the effort to elevate the O!ne…
Like Silver Whistle, I too am waiting to hear the numbers crunching techniques you used to arrive at your conclusions…
Bob,
I think Prof Poon has mislaid his Sokal and Rohlf. We may be waiting some time – perhaps a drink in the interim?
A desperate attempt to move the goalposts, Dan?
When you’re in a hole…
He’s not in a hole you fucking moron. Journalists have to work things out before going forward with a story. Blogs, as a general matter are collaborative, which means getting at the truth based on various contributions. The downside to that, naturally, is that when you’re openly working through it enables a moron like yourself who arrives with an opposite agenda and no interest in the truth to be right the same way a broken clock is twice a day. If this is nothing, then it is nothing. But you’re still the empty life limp dick with the clownish nom de blog who arrived here pretending to be a conservative and incessantly peddling a manufactured narrative about how everyone is laughing at conservatives. It took a half dozen comments before you even feigned interest in making even a bad faith “contribution” to looking into things, but that’s not why you’re here anyway.
“Like Silver Whistle, I too am waiting to hear the numbers crunching techniques you used to arrive at your conclusions…”
I divided the number of dealers on the list who made no political contribution by the total number of dealers on the list, Bob.
I came up with an answer of 0.80, or 80%.
I then realized you guys were either lying or insane when you claimed these dealerships were closed based on political contributions.
Then I looked at the results of the last elections an laughed and laughed.
Is this the best you clowns can do?
Even a child can see you’re lying here.
More bullshit from thor’s cat box. Low taxation “creates jobs” by way of increasing efficiency and profit in the private sector, Einstein. That stuff happens because government makes jack and does a lousy job at it. That is the folly of collectivization, thor-Jonny Cat
And why our economy collapsed, clue-boy, had to do with an epidemic of offshoring enabled by the fiat, leveraged currency we exploited to the nines while we could. We used up the trust in trust currency and now we can’t even pay it back in the services we otherwise would, now that said domestic manufacturing is decimated.
Gah. Can you really be this staggeringly dense?
Make that drink a double, Bob. It seems Prof Poon has delusions of adequacy.
thor,
The unions that demanded out of propertion wages at those domestic manufacturers, facilitated by the government, as well as unrealistic business tax rates are what forced those companies overseas; all in an effort to stay competitive with the foriegn manufacturers in the first place…
I wasn’t talking about income taxes friend, but corporate and capital gain taxes. As far as income goes, I favor a flat tax; one where simplicity is maximized and deductions minimized. There would of course be a minimum below which no tax would be paid…
If it wasn’t so detrimental to their bottom line to base here, many more manufacturing comcerns would base here instead of overseas. Just as, domestically, many have left NY and California for more tax friendly regions down south…
thor, I respect the value of labor, but you haven’t addressed the unions extorting a greater than that value recompense for their workers. Nor have you addressed how that higher cost both hurts cost competetiveness of goods manufactured, capital re-investment, or profits to earnings ratios and the effects on a company’s stock price…
And, you have ignored my point about drastically reducing unnecessary government spending. A good place to start would be reducing the number of Federal employee, who are now paid much higher than comparable industry salaries-bofore comparing benefits. And then entitlement reform is a must…
In closing though, I would address your point about Boooooosh!, and the cost of the war on terror…
Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan cost us around 750 billion to 1 trillion dollars, by the best estimates, that is true. And, it’s true that Boooooooosh! chose to borrow this money instead of raise taxes domestically. This was done for a variety of reasons, but not all the nefarious and exploitive ones you might allege…
But, this money is a drop in the bucket compared to the increased medicare entitlement cists he signed us up for. And, it is but a single digit fraction of the debt that Obama will impose on our nation over the next 8 years based upon the most rosy growth and tax estimates.
And as for regulation? I’ve talked ’til I was blue in the face about Booosh!, the RethugliKKKans, and the regulations they tried to head off the real estate bubble with during the last 8 years; I won’t repeat them. All I will say is that it is ridiculous to think that by simply adding another layer of the same ineffective regulation-that didn’t work in this case, will ensure complete protection of the system in the future…
You’re mistaken friend. The formula of more freedom, minimum regulation, a tax friendly business environment, and governmental fiscal austerity are key building blocks for a robust and increasing economy; one that lifts all earnest participants equally according to their risk, effort, and investment…
Oh, and I don’t wear cowboy hats…
Respectfully…
SW,
We’ll soon be potted at this rate…
Bob,
Doubtless we’re doing the redoubtable Poon a disservice, and at this very moment he is limbering up his Bayesian-fu, or perhaps burnishing his fuzzy logic. If he gets too modern on me, I may have to phone a friend, or ask the audience.
It appears that the dealers who were not closed are Obama donors and Democrats. By a very large margin.
There’s a “there” there. This is a problem, will it get legs? Watch for some major event or speech by the Obama White House to give the legacy media cover for changing the subject.
SW,
The only techniques being prepared are bias-fu; or perhaps Axelrod-fu…
I thinks it’s time for another drink!
Cheers!
“It appears that the dealers who were not closed are Obama donors and Democrats. By a very large margin.”
Please give us a link to the list of dealers who weren’t closed so we can show your statement to be an obvious lie, Christopher.
Slà inte Mhath, Bob.
“Please give us a link to the list of dealers who weren’t closed…”
You mean there’s more poon where you are than we thought..?
Well that settles it, it must be the Feministe crowd subcontracting to Axelrod…
By the way, regardless of your absolute moral authority, simply declaring us liars does not make it so…
This is not some MSM talk show segment, where repeating a lie enough makes it the truth. Folks have brought some serious numerical background, link citations, and statistical techniques to the table. And all you’ve brought is “nuh-uh” and vitriol. Forgive me, but the engineer in me kind of leans toward the numbers on this one…
with all due respect, and just a bit of sarcasm…
SW,
How did you know I was a Guinness man :)
Slainte
It was your profile, Bob.
Gee, I didn’t know that anyone could see me through the inter-tubes!
I’ll have to check my look in the mirror before going on in the future…
So I can be both stylin’ and profilin’ ; as they used to say in DC…
“By the way, regardless of your absolute moral authority, simply declaring us liars does not make it so…”
Then tell me what compels poor souls like Christopher and Dan to type such obvious lies like:
“It appears that the dealers who were not closed are Obama donors and Democrats. By a very large margin.â€
By now we’re all aware than dealers who do give political donations do so at a ratio of around 10:1 in favor of Republicans.
If it’s not lying, then what is it than forces folks like he and Dan to type such obvious falsehoods, Bob?
Didn’t you let slip earlier that you were a gentleman of heroic proportions? Forgive me if I have you confused with another regular.
No, Bob, it ain’t the unions. Most jobs – by a long shot – in America are not union jobs. What do you think the monthly wage for a manufacturing employee is in S. Korea, in China, in Russia, in India? No, Bob, you can’t pay those wages here because ain’t nobody could afford to live here on those wages. And Bob, S. Korea, China, Russia, and India all have strong unions.
Another layer of ineffective regulation? How about an effective layer of regulation where there was absolutely no regulation before, Bob. No Bob, the future isn’t a Shhhh-don’t-tell-anyone-what-we’re-doing hedge fund craps game economy.
We are going to have a government and private corporation planned economy. It’s what the S. Koreans did, the Japanese did, the Germans did. We are going to elect smarter politicians than before – Sorry Sarah Palin – because they are going to play a more important role in our economy. The Go-Go days of domestic producers relying on a domestic market are gone. Are competitors have been smarter than we. Health care costs will be contained and restrained – one way or another, either by gov’t intervention or the market forces of nobody being able to afford to go to the hospital.
The numbers don’t add up. America will change its economy or the world won’t finance our deficit. They are on the verge of calling the shots. This is the Reagan-Bush-Clinton(less so)-Bush economic legacy we’re paying for. Silly Bullshit stories of Obama’s re-inflating the economy so it won’t totally collapse all at once being a huge mistake are going to implode. The bond market did lock up. The commercial paper market did lock up. The stock market did drop 50% from its high. Corp sales and earnings did nose dive at a velocity nobody has seen since 1929. All you buttercups who live far, far away in remote mud-walled homes with no cable news who believe this has all been a fantasy are sadly mistaken.
American capitalism is no longer. Merrill Lynch, Lehman Bro.s, Bear Stearns are no more. Most of you have no idea what that means for our future. I’ll clue you in, American companies will no longer dominate the access of capital. That ain’t good.
poon,
I think you’re miking sample groups; all dealers with Chrysler dealers.
Christopher and Dan are not the only folks making the statements either. I’ve heard a bit about it on some financial news programs on CNBC as well; as you know they are a division of NBC…
I’m not worried, because this story is gaining traction, and the truth will eventually come to light; just as it appears to be doing with ACORN and SEIU…
I realize that you have a differing opinion than most here, and have been the subject of a lot of sarcasm. Your arguments would be better entertained if they were accompanied by links as well as figures, as opposed to stand-alone antagonistic accusations to some of the forum authors…
The truth is not always as clear as it first seems…
We can all disagree without being disagreeable…
SW,
You’re right sir; 6 foot 3, nominally 300 pounds; built like an American football defensive lineman. Back at NAVAIR I was classified as 95th percentile, ergonomically…
Of course, I was slimmer then…Only about 250 (or so)…
I guess you can always tell a Guinness man…Just there are times when he might not understand much!
Cheers, on this lovely Friday afternoon!
Tax friendly South – HAHahahahahaha!
Taxes have skyrocketed in the South to pay for the increased infrastructure needed to accommodate the migrating Yankees.
And this suburban pre-fabbed endless stip-mall construction aesthetic isn’t world-class city planning. It’s Mexican brick, as they say in Texas. The suburban South is cheap, desperate and gross.
I just had a brief email exchange with a friend that had it continued would have concluded that the left’s most noble principle is that with stuff ruined, it — being the force for envy and theft that it is — would be turned to to take the final steps to dependency and tyranny.
That’s what you just said in #480, thor, in and around all the bullshit about smarter politicians.
Sure, anyone can deny human nature (and you consistently do) so/but you’ll never honorably defend what’s coming up next, not in moral terms and certainly not via an originalist American vernacular centered on personal liberty. Instead you’ll bullshit primarily about one thing, which is that in your mind the criminals in office — as we head off to face the global collective the planet eventually gets to — are saviors.
That you see them that way has been my point for some time. That you cannot make such a defense by any honorable means is a component of that point. #480 proves it.
Frankly, #480 proves both our points: That you are a careening opportunist and that I despise envy, theft, and unfairness almost as much as I do tyranny. Being on the right side, thor, shouldn’t have to do with how much it pays. Thanks for the clarity; I’ll never ask you to itemize your principles again, now that you just did.
So, congratulations.
“We can all disagree without being disagreeable…”
That’s true.
But false accusations can sometimes be a crime, Bob.
They are always a sin.
Dan has already admitted he has little grasp of mathematics, but he feels free to malign the character of a group of bureaucrats who are most likely overworked, underpaid drones with little in the way of political goals based on nothing more than a few patently false statements.
But then again, this is the blogosphere.
You’re missing all the fun in the new post, poon.
Steady, Dan – I’ve heard you have very little grasp of mathematics.
We are going to have a government and private corporation planned economy. It’s what the S. Koreans did, the Japanese did, the Germans did. We are going to elect smarter politicians than before – Sorry Sarah Palin – because they are going to play a more important role in our economy.
All that smhartness would certainly explain why the German economy shrank by 8%, Japan by 14%. I do not have South Korea GDP,figure on hand, but their latest export figures show a 34% decline, so figure sharp GDP contraction there. All these economies also are doing worse than the stupid, cowboy US economy, which shrank 6.5% (annualized as reported today).
Oh and add the higher unemployment, higher govt debt (not current account deficits) as a % of GDP/GNP of the poster child mature economies of the EU (where the US would concievably be) and you get a compelling argument for really keeping faith with O!.
Thank goodness we aren’t stuck with the idiot Palin.
I’ll just keep buying GM stock, $0.75 today. Gotta dollar (penny) cost average.
Fucking brilliant you are Thor.
thor,
I disagree with much of what you said. Instead of going round-n-round, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell what comes to pass…
Obama will incur more debt than all of his predecessors combined. Using his rosy growth estimates, we will add 13 trillion to the debt over the next 8 years. If you go by the more believable CBO figures instead, that figure aproaches 25 trillion…
He’s a demagogue and hypocrite to even talk the way he has, at the town hall and on CNN. The admonishions that “we can’t keep spending like we do” and “we’re broke” need to be backed up by actions…
Asian trade unions, where they do exist, have nowhere near the clout of the US unions-the exception being Japan. And while you’re correct that folks here couldn’t live on the wages paid in Asia, that will change in time…
And, if high taxes didn’t run business overseas, and folks would have some national loyalty in purchases, domestic production for domestic consumption wouldn’t seem like such an unreal vision. None of those countries would be doing anywhere near as well without our market to dump their goods in…
I assure you I’m not living in the past, as you seem to believe. But, I don’t buy your vision of the coming brave new world either. A quasi-fascist government directed economy is not the American way. Nor have such economies enjoyed the individual prosperity that we have achieved here for much of our history.
I do agree that we must cease to incur debt, and stop shipping our dollars overseas…
I just don’t believe that Obama and his government are doing what is in the best long term interests of our nation…
Respectfully…
I mean if capitalism failed here in thor, it has done a lot better than what has happened in the socialist systems you seem to so adore.
FACT. JACK
Here’s another.
Financial jagoff is what you are.
GUFFAW!!!!1!
“Lower taxes does not create jobs. That’s a Reagan era lie.”
You’re a moron.
Why aren’t you out cruising for little boys, whore.
thor,
The south is better off than much of the rust belt and California…
Your ideas of Aesthetics aside…
And, that last comment is sounding just a bit racist; watch that Mexican characterization…
“Obama will incur more debt than all of his predecessors combined. Using his rosy growth estimates, we will add 13 trillion to the debt over the next 8 years. If you go by the more believable CBO figures instead, that figure aproaches 25 trillion…”
Before the election, I predicted that we would look back on the days of Jimmy Carter with yearning and nostalgia.
You just wait, stagflation, here we come.
When the stall horn is blaring, the dumbest thing you can do is pull back on the stick.
Push it forward and throttle up.
Why are ya’ll arguing with thor? He’s a pustule, a liar, a thief.
Ignore him.
Amen Rob,
Any pilot will tell you that is your only hope…
The World’s second largest? Don’t think so, Prof. Peddles.
Leave it to whoreboi to come up with something brutally irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Where did you get this bike fixation anyway, whoreboi? I haven’t ridden a bike since I was a kid.
Yo, poon: how’s TrannyCrazyo doing? I’m really interested.
And does your Daddy know you’re acting like an asshole using his Internet connection rather than getting out and looking for a job, the way you’ve been promising for the last… how many years is it now?
Rob – but its really funny when he runs full speed into the wall of stupidity. You gotta point and laugh at him. The controlled economy with smart politicians comment was begging the statistical refutation. I mean its like farting into an open mouth.
Reminder: “poon” hasn’t held a job in years. Whoreboy/yippy dog is a serial failure.
Explain how you know that. What comprehensive report are you referencing?
“You’re missing all the fun in the new post, poon.”
Geez, Dan, really?
Item 3!…A Democratic donor so powerful that…he got two of his dealerships shut down:
Item 3: Democratic donor Sidney Deboer is Chairman of Lithia Motors. He donated over $14,000 to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Lithia Motors lost only two of its 29 dealerships
Why do all these phony “conservative” scoops all sound the same these days? The constant updates, the breathless post titles…the completely laughable and nonsensical posts?
Why do all these phony “conservative†scoops all sound the same these days?
Why don’t you get a job, Gordo?
that guy in Lithia didn’t give to Baracky Chavez so he got two of his dealerships shut down… it’s very sad how scummy our president is. Kinda unbelievable this is happening.
Cool. Thank you.
FWIW, I am opposed to intervention. I believe that adversity is what leads to growth and the proper answer for this is “let it burn.”
I have no problem with burn barrels and rat hunts–those people will be the next moguls–or the parents of them. We could do with some toughening up.
Similar story; during the testing of the SR-71, they initially lost a few prototypes (and I assume pilots) due to “flat spins”. The cause was determined to be that one engine would flame out and the massive thrust of the remaining engine would throw it into the spin. It took a lot of working on before someone suggested teh solution that worked. They put in a sensor that would cut an engine out if the other ever went out. This would prevent the spin which also gave the pilot time to reignite both engines.
Cut the engines–we’ve got the momentum to glide for a while so long as we don’t burn it up with “intervention.”
That same condition used to happen to F-14 Alpha’s, SSgt; at certain high angles of attack, or other under particular conditions the compressor blades would “stall” and result in a flameout…
A revoltin’ development indeed!
F-14s. I thought that was just the movies.
Unfortunately it’s the truth SSgt.
The Alpha variant was equipped with a P & W engine that had some design flaws…
Ours were re-engined, and all the later variants were equipped with a G.E. engine that didn’t have the same design shortcomings…
So this is one instance where art really imitated life!
Best Wishes
You’re a fuckin’ idiot posing as if you’re not. That’s why you’re here, namely, to try and idiot-swarm anyone too-obviously smarter than yourself.
You wouldn’t know what Socialism was if it bit you in your buck-toothed cross-eyed bump head.
Get an education and fuck off, or just die off, the quicker the better.
You can take the boy out of the Uncle Joe…
Oh, I didn’t see this little gem from Ooowold Texas
RacistTurkeeeeeey. Our little posing pink tutu financial goo-goo guru. Ooowold Texas Hick is ’emself a speculatin’ in ’em GM? Maybe that’s how he has him such a bumpy head.Got him a flag-pin! GeeeeeeenYuuuuuus economist ay is. Say there, GeeeeeenYuuuuuus, why don’t you have you um them S. Korean GDP numbers? Wikpedia down? Hahahaha. Exporters into the Republican-collapsed U.S. economy didn’t fare to well, you say. Think there’s a correlation, GeeeeeeenYuuuuuus. Consult with Sarah Palin’s and get back to me. Haha.
And redumbs wonder why they get their butts shalacked come election time. Duuuuuh. Lower taxes! Duuuh!
Hey, Turkey, you are averaging down in every way. And, by the way, Uncle Joe and I made a boat load of money in the market this year. Feel the burn.
Read thor’s posts in Emo Philips voice, they suddenly make perfect sense.
Mike Tyson’s voice is the tenor in your posts.
I believe he’s pointing out that you’re a jackass with the financial acumen of a dead mole and the political savvy of a Jonestown resident.
I’d just like to thank Dan for his statistical analysis.
To hell if I’ll be donating to the Repubs anymore. Look at the stats, bad things happen when you do.
I asked for a side of guacamole when I ordered. That and could you freshen up my toddy.
They’re going to overhaul the regulatory system for financial institutions, Pablo. Once they update Wikipedia you can learn about how the restructuring will effect the S.E.C.. You’re such a curios pobrecito.
#488
This dealer thing got me thinking of the GM bailout. The Obama administration is rewarding the unions with their own company. In the short run GM stock may rise a couple of dollars. In the long run the people aren’t going to continue to subsidize a company that builds turbo Trebants. However in that mean time the government can punish other car makers who did not get on board. I’m thinking Ford. The short run punishmsnt would be designed to ruin Ford or at least get it ot restructure like GM/Chrysler. So FAS/FAZ GM stock in the thousands of shares and and dump when it hits a buck and a half. Keep that up until GM finally tanks a couple of years from now. So from that point of view buying GM makes sense. Picking the bones, because no investor in their right mind would bet GM long term. Long term GM is 0. Ford on the other hand looks good.
Where’s my free gas, bitch?
Is a 75% drop in stick value going to be a good thing when they’re done? There might yet be a place for you at the table, sore. Until then, pump my free fucking gas. You promised.
They’re going to overhaul the regulatory system for financial institutions, Pablo.
That is so tragically funny. ’cause of the ironicalness.
Wow…..does conservatism kill brain cells?
Dr. Steve, the hypergeometric is wildly innapropriate, because in an urn problem without replacement each ball has an equal probability of being chosen….instead you have many geolocated urns where the specific local balls are individually parameterized by a huge number of varables, making them more or less likely to be chosen.
It is probably much more an optimization problem like simmulated annealing.
;)
BTW feets, where the hell is JeffieG?
did he quit again?
simmulated annealing.
Pretty sure that anybody who actually understood simulated annealing would know how to spell it.
Hmmm, that’s odd because DrSteve was responding to a specific question. Not a different one.
we have already covered the ground of my speeling problems, and teh aspergers.
Where is Jeff?
Good to see you back, Thor, spreading your surreal gibberish again. Has your tender little starfish healed from that Chrysler discussion a couple of weeks back? Man, it’s not often one sees such a complete rout like that, but you really offered yourself up for it.
Tell us again the virtues of a planned economy high taxes and stratospheric regulation again, comrade?
Did he quit again?
Not the 2 blathing drooling idiots, thor and nishidiot, in the same thread. Good Allah.
Nishi – if you really believed in science, you would take your meds and stay in the room with the padded walls.
Where is Jeff?
He’s at Stanley Cup Game One.
Didn’t you used to be a conservative? Could be an explanation for things.
Jeffersonian, which Chrysler discussion was that, and when..?